Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[jaichind]

My understanding was that Rousseff was able to unleash a large media attack on Silva which now it seems to have worked, perhaps too well.  This seems only possible with a large financial advantage of the Rousseff campaign.  I wonder if she can replicate this against Neves.  What is the financial resource gap between Rousseff and Neves ?

Aecio actually can fundraise more than Dilma. He's the candidate of the financial market.

Yes.  I know.  But incumbency has to count for something as well in terms of financial resources.  That is why I asked the question. 

[jaichind]

In a bad sign for Rousseff, Silva seems to indicate that the vote is a vote against the the current government. 

[Paleobrazilian]

Where did you get that map?

Estadão is doing all maps:

http://politica.estadao.com.br/eleicoes/2014/apuracao/governador/sp

[jaichind]

i have to believe that this result is positive for the markets.  IBOVESPA and in fact the entire emerging market sector should do well tomorrow.

[Paleobrazilian]

Marina's leading economist, Eduardo Giannetti, has endorsed Aecio.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to PSDB leaders the 1st rally of the runoff will be realized in Pernambuco, and there's a chance Marina will endorse Aecio there.

[Paleobrazilian]

PSDB has elected 54 Congressmen, 8 more than was believed yesterday, 10 more than currently. 14 of the 70 Congressmen São Paulo elected are from the PSDB - Alckmin's coattails, of course. That is huge for the PSDB. No matter what happens in the runoff, they'll be stronger for the next 4 years.

[Paleobrazilian]

The PT has likely shrunk to 70 Congressmen, a huge 18 member loss. São Paulo put a huge drag on the PT here.

[Paleobrazilian]

PMDB also shrinks, to 66 Congressmen, from 73.

[Paleobrazilian]

Another loser in Congress is Gilberto Kassab and his PSD. Not only he failed miserably on his Senate bid, his party lost 7 seats in Congress, and will now have 38 Congressmen.

[Paleobrazilian]

Thanks to Marina Silva the PSB gains 9 seats and will now have 34 seats in the Chamber.

[Paleobrazilian]

The huge fragmentation of parties over the last few years makes the Chamber elected today a hugely split one. It'll be hard for both Dilma and Aecio to have a reliable majority here. Dilma has had tons of trouble working with the Congress during her term. FHC and Lula used to deal much better with the Congress.

[buritobr]

The defeat of PT in the Congress is the result of the complete colapse of the PT in the middle class.
Since 2006, the PT presidential candidate have much more votes from the poor than from the middle class. However, almost every middle class person who votes for Lula/Dilma votes also to a PT candidate for the Congress. Poor people usually vote for Lula/Dilma but not necessarily to PT for the Congress.
In 2014, Dilma had large defeat even in cities with large middle class population in which Lula and Dilma still did well in 2006 and 2010, like Brasília, Rio de Janeiro and Campinas. PT lost a large number of middle class voters after the scandal of 2005, but still performed not so bad in the middle class in 2006 and 2010. In 2014, PT almost lost all middle class voters

[buritobr]

This Brazilian election looks like recent European elections. Right does well, far left does well, center-left suffers a large defeat.

In Rio de Janeiro, PSOL became the biggest left-wing power, bigger than PT. Lindberg (PT) had a little bit more votes than Tarcísio Motta (PSOL) only because of his hometown Nova Iguaçu. PSOL elected more state deputies than PT.

[Paleobrazilian]

Daniel Coelho (PSDB-PE), widely considered a big rising star on the PSDB, has been elected to Congress. Wouldn't be surprised if he's elected Mayor of Recife in 2 years.

One thing I was just listening to on the TV is the possibility of sensitive info from the Petrobras scandal leaking during the next 3 weeks. The 1st whistleblower has already told tons of damaging info to the feds (still in secret what he told, but it's believed to be highly damaging) and now there's a 2nd whistleblower who's believed to have even more explosive info.

[Paleobrazilian]

The latest projection to the new Chamber of Deputies:

PT – 88 – 70 (-18 seats)
PMDB – 71 – 66 (-5 seats)
PSDB – 44 – 55 (+11 seats)
PP – 40 – 37 (-3 seats)
PSD – 45 – 37 (-8 seats)
PR – 32 – 34 (+2 seats)
PSB – 24 – 34 (+10 seats)
PTB – 18 – 26 (+8 seats)
DEM – 28 – 22 (-6 seats)
PRB – 10 – 20 (+10 seats)
PDT – 18 – 19 (+1 seat)
SD – 22 – 16 (-6 seats)
PSC – 12 – 12 (equal)
Pros – 20 – 11 (-9 seats)
PPS – 6 – 10 (+4 seats)
PCdoB – 15 – 9 (-6 seats)
PV – 8 – 8 (equal)
Psol – 3 – 5 (+2 seats)
PHS – 0 – 4 (+4 seats)
PEN – 1 – 3 (+2 seats)
PMN – 3 – 3 (equal)
PTN – 0 – 3 (+3 seats)
PRP – 2 – 2 (equal)
PTC – 0 – 2 (+2 seats)
PSDC – 0 – 2 (+2 seats)
PRTB – 0 – 1 (+1 seat)
PSL – 0 – 1 (+1 seat)
PTdoB – 3 – 1 (-2 seats)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So why was Neves so underestimated in polls?

[Paleobrazilian]

Vice Governor-Elect of São Paulo Marcio França (PSB-SP) has announced he believes his party will endorse Aecio.

Among the victims of tonight's election for the Chamber, I'd pencil the President of the PPS, Roberto Freire (PPS-SP), who was a fixture in Congress, Candido Vaccarezza (PT-SP), former leader of the PT in the Chamber, and Netinho de Paula (PCdoB-SP), a very well known musician who turned to politics.

Seminal politicians who were probably taken down for good after tonight are Paulo Souto (DEM-BA), Roberto Requião (PMDB-PR), Olivio Dutra (PT-RS), Eduardo Suplicy (PT-SP) and Cesar Maia (DEM-RJ). Age and/or the size of their defeats probably sign the end of their political careers.

Now I'll go to sleep

[buritobr]

I think most of the Marina Silva votes will go to Aécio Neves in the runoff. One have to consider that although she was attacked by Aécio campaign, she was much more attacked by Dilma campaign. It is possible that Marina endorse Aécio in the runoff.

However, I don't believe that 100% of the votes for Marina Silva will go to Aécio. I observed the city-by-city results and discovered that unlike 2010, Marina Silva had more votes in low income cities than in high income cities.
When I observed the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, I saw that Marina Silva had more votes in São Gonçalo, Duque de Caxias, Nova Iguaçu, Belford Roxo and São João de Meriti than she had in Niterói. When I observed the metropolitan area of São Paulo, I saw that Marina Silva had more votes in Diadema and Guarulhos than she had in São Paulo. When I observed the metropolitan area of Campinas, I observed that she had more votes in Sumaré and Hortolândia than she had in Valinhos and Vinhedo. I don't think that all the votes for Marina in these cities where the population is poor will go to Aécio.

[Zanas]

A near 6% of invalid votes and 4% of blank votes add up to just less than 10% spoiled ballots : a whole hell of a lot ! Is it always similar in brazilian elections ? Why is that ?

[MaxQue]

A near 6% of invalid votes and 4% of blank votes add up to just less than 10% spoiled ballots : a whole hell of a lot ! Is it always similar in brazilian elections ? Why is that ?

Mandatory voting is probably a big cause.

[Peeperkorn]

Thank you, based paleobrazilian.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Dilma will face a tough runoff ...

[MaxQue]

Looks like Dilma will face a tough runoff ...

Not so sure. It seems than most voters swinging between and Silva and Neves finally picked Neves. The remaining Silva voters are more likely to prefer Dilma to Neves.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Dilma will face a tough runoff ...

Not so sure. It seems than most voters swinging between and Silva and Neves finally picked Neves. The remaining Silva voters are more likely to prefer Dilma to Neves.

Yepp, but runoffs are often crazy.

I predict something like a 52-48 Dilma win, instead of a 60-40 win a few weeks ago.