Brazil Election - 5 October 2014
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Author Topic: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014  (Read 124414 times)
eric82oslo
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« Reply #450 on: October 06, 2014, 03:55:19 AM »

A near 6% of invalid votes and 4% of blank votes add up to just less than 10% spoiled ballots : a whole hell of a lot ! Is it always similar in brazilian elections ? Why is that ?

Mandatory voting is probably a big cause.

It's amazing that mandatory voting only leads to 80-81% of the population voting. Tongue Sweden for instance has a higher percentage than that, and there it's voluntary. Tongue On the other hand, if Swedes would actually lose their passport if they didn't vote, I presume about 95-98% of the population would have turned out.
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politicus
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« Reply #451 on: October 06, 2014, 04:10:37 AM »

I searched and it seems noone has ever bothered to try to describe the Brazilian party system (which is understandable..). Do you know any external (non-Wikipedia) sources with a good overview?
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politicus
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« Reply #452 on: October 06, 2014, 04:54:37 AM »
« Edited: October 06, 2014, 06:20:30 AM by politicus »

Parties in the Chamber of Deputies (513)

Category A. (-12)
PT  70 (-18) Social Democrats
PMDB 66 (-5) centrist populists
PSDB 55 (+11) moderate Conservatives


Category B. (+13)
PP  37 (-3) Conservatives
PSD 37 (-8) centrist Liberals
PR 34 (+2) National Conservatives
PSB 34 (+10 ) Social Democrats
PTB  26 (+8) centrist populists
DEM 22 (-6) Conservatives
PRB  20 (+10) centrist populists

Category C. (-10)
PDT 19 (+1) Social Democrats
SD 16 (-6) Social Democrats
PSC 12 (-) SoCons/Christian Right
Pros 11 (-9) Social Democrats
PPS  10 (+4) Social Liberals


Category D. (0)
PCdoB 9 (-6) Communists
PV   8 (-) Greens
Psol  5 (+2) Left Socialists
PHS 4 (+4) Christian Democrats


Category E.
9 others 19 (+9)

So 28 parties, 9 of them with less than 4 seats. Talk about fragmentation.

The difference between the categories is of course arbitrary and parties that gained or lost a lot would have moved between the tiers, it was just to get an overview. But its clear that the big parties lost and the very small ones gained seats.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #453 on: October 06, 2014, 08:25:06 AM »

In 20 minutes Bovespa is already gaining over 7.5%. The dollar rate is also dropping sharply to less than 2,40 reais. Any doubt about the market wants? Tongue
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Hash
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« Reply #454 on: October 06, 2014, 08:38:32 AM »


The issue is that, besides a few parties (like the PT and PSDB - and even then), most Brazilian parties have absolutely no coherent ideology - they change appearances and 'ideologies' to fit in with the prevailing environment (parties like the PMDB, PP, PR, PRB etc are the best examples), while many individual politicians change parties as often as they change clothes. Trying to come up with some ideological descriptor for these parties is a waste of time and meaningless.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #455 on: October 06, 2014, 08:52:57 AM »


The issue is that, besides a few parties (like the PT and PSDB - and even then), most Brazilian parties have absolutely no coherent ideology - they change appearances and 'ideologies' to fit in with the prevailing environment (parties like the PMDB, PP, PR, PRB etc are the best examples), while many individual politicians change parties as often as they change clothes. Trying to come up with some ideological descriptor for these parties is a waste of time and meaningless.

Exactly.
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politicus
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« Reply #456 on: October 06, 2014, 09:18:40 AM »
« Edited: October 06, 2014, 10:12:06 AM by politicus »

Main point was getting an overview of the level of fragmentation (big parties lose - small parties gain on average), not the ideology stuff, that was just for reference.

It's mostly a very simple left (SD)/right (Cons) distinction. "Populist centrist" is the term I have used for those with no ideology whatsoever (AFAIK).

The far left parties and Greens + the Christian Right seem to be fairly ideologically consistent, or is that not so?
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #457 on: October 06, 2014, 12:52:15 PM »

IBOPE and Datafolha will be releasing the 1st runoff polls Thursday.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
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« Reply #458 on: October 06, 2014, 12:57:31 PM »

Two questions:

1. Why is PSDB so freaking strong in SP? (and PT so weak?)
2. While Aecio made a remarkable comeback, he just lost his home state of Minas, where he was suppoused to be a God. Would that make any effect or it doesn't matter? 
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buritobr
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« Reply #459 on: October 06, 2014, 05:32:08 PM »

Considering group of candidates

Left (Dilma Rousseff + Luciana Genro + Eduardo Jorge + Zé Maria + Mauro Iasi + Rui Pimenta)
45,661,331 votes (43.1%)

Right (Aécio Neves + Marina Silva + Pastor Everaldo + Levy Fidelix + Eymael)
58,362,471 votes (56.1%)

Exactly the opposite of Dilma victory in 2010.


However, despite being "right", as I said before, I don't believe that 100% of Marina votes will go to Aécio.
The map below shows how the districts of the city of Rio de Janeiro voted. In the city of Rio de Janeiro, the three major candidates almost tied (~30% for each one). Aécio won all the high income districts. Dilma won some low income districts and Marina won some of them. In the poor districts Marina won, Dilma won by a huge margin in the runoff against Serra in 2010. I don't think that all these poor people who voted for Marina will vote for Aécio now.
http://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2014/rj/apuracao-zona-eleitoral-presidencia/1-turno.html
In the first round of 2010, the map was different. Dilma had the pluraity in the city, Dilma won all the poor districts and Marina and Serra shared the rich districts. The vote for Marina in 2014 became poorer.

http://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2014/sp/apuracao-zona-eleitoral-presidencia/1-turno.html
In São Paulo, Marina won no district. But she had more votes in the red districts than in the blue districts. In Grajaú, a poor district located in the South of the city, Dilma had 45,7%, Marina had 24,2%, Aécio had 23,8%, Luciana had 3,3%, Levy Fidelix had 1,2% and Everaldo had 0,8%. I don't think it is possible for Aécio to have 50% (Aécio + Marina + Levy + Everaldo) in Grajaú in the runoff. In 2010, Dilma had 71% against José Serra there. In the election for mayor in 2012, Haddad (PT) had 80% against José Serra there.
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buritobr
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« Reply #460 on: October 06, 2014, 05:40:33 PM »

Two questions:

1. Why is PSDB so freaking strong in SP? (and PT so weak?)
2. While Aecio made a remarkable comeback, he just lost his home state of Minas, where he was suppoused to be a God. Would that make any effect or it doesn't matter? 

1. In São Paulo, the percentage of people living below the poverty line is much lower than in the rest of the country. Unlike Rio de Janeiro and Brasília, the large majority of the middle class from São Paulo work in the private sector. That's why they are more willing to support "small government". In Rio de Janeiro and Brasília, most of the middle class work in the public sector, and that's why, many of them used to vote for PT. But this year, Dilma didn't win Brasília and Rio de Janeiro too.
Despite having huge rejection in São Paulo, PT used to have safe 30% there. In this year, it didn't happen. São Paulo is the home of PT and PSDB.

2. Minas Gerais is a sample that represents Brazil as a whole. The north of the state is poor like the neighboring Bahia, the south of the state is rich like the neighboring São Paulo. Aécio won in the south of the state, but lost in the north
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #461 on: October 06, 2014, 05:57:51 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2014, 05:59:37 PM by Paleobrazilian »

Marina and Eduardo Campos' family will formally endorse Aecio this week according to Estadão.

It's widely believed Paulo Skaf will also endorse Aecio. That would be huge for Aecio.
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politicus
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« Reply #462 on: October 06, 2014, 06:14:24 PM »

Marina and Eduardo Campos' family will formally endorse Aecio this week according to Estadão.

It's widely believed Paulo Skaf will also endorse Aecio. That would be huge for Aecio.

Any news of what Marina will get out of this? Could she join his cabinet?
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #463 on: October 06, 2014, 06:46:00 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2014, 09:14:24 PM by Paleobrazilian »

Two questions:

1. Why is PSDB so freaking strong in SP? (and PT so weak?)
2. While Aecio made a remarkable comeback, he just lost his home state of Minas, where he was suppoused to be a God. Would that make any effect or it doesn't matter?  

1. In São Paulo, the percentage of people living below the poverty line is much lower than in the rest of the country. Unlike Rio de Janeiro and Brasília, the large majority of the middle class from São Paulo work in the private sector. That's why they are more willing to support "small government". In Rio de Janeiro and Brasília, most of the middle class work in the public sector, and that's why, many of them used to vote for PT. But this year, Dilma didn't win Brasília and Rio de Janeiro too.
Despite having huge rejection in São Paulo, PT used to have safe 30% there. In this year, it didn't happen. São Paulo is the home of PT and PSDB.

2. Minas Gerais is a sample that represents Brazil as a whole. The north of the state is poor like the neighboring Bahia, the south of the state is rich like the neighboring São Paulo. Aécio won in the south of the state, but lost in the north

I'd say there's even more to explain São Paulo. The PT has proven to be an awful party for the inner areas of the State, areas that grew very quickly on the economy over the last 20 years. The PSDB clearly targeted voters from booming cities like Sorocaba, Jundiaí, Santos, São José dos Campos, Ribeirão Preto, etc, and it paid off handsomely.

Also, there's the feeling that, overall, São Paulo has always been better on the election day than it was 4 years ago. There's a general feeling that the economy and the infrastructure of São Paulo has continuously improved (at times at a faster rate than the rest of the country). As Alckmin pointed out during his campaign, when the PSDB took office in 1994 São Paulo had the GDP of Argentina, now it has the GDP of 2 Argentinas, at about 600 billion dollars.

Another reason why the PSDB is so strong here is the fact that the State was bankrupt when Mario Covas took office in 1994. There was widespread corruption and the state-owned companies were bleeding money. The state had no money to pay its public servants at a moment. Covas made huge changes on the size of the government and on it's way to handle things, and soon the State was booming again. This argument is very appealing to older voters who remember well how São Paulo was doing until 1994, and helps to explain why many in São Paulo are generally in favor of privatizations and a smaller size of the government.

Finally, there's the "non ducor duco" ("I'm not led, I lead") argument. São Paulo definitely tilts to the right when it comes to economic issues and they don't like the idea of a strong central government messing up with their lives.

All in, the PT has been scoring slowly on all the 4 points I listed before and that's why it's brand has become toxic in São Paulo. The PSDB also did a great job building party ID in São Paulo, many "paulistas" now identify themselves as PSDBists. One HUGELY relevant number from yesterday is that on both the Chamber and the State Assembly elections yesterday, the PSDB was BY FAR the party with most direct votes to the party. About 5% of the votes on both races were not given to a specific candidate, they went directly to the PSDB. The PT used to dominate this statistic and yesterday they had nearly 60% less direct votes than the PSDB. Yet another relevant stat is that Dilma failed to win some key cities on the Greater São Paulo area where the PT was born, like São Bernardo do Campo, Santo André, Diadema and Guarulhos. In some of those areas, Marina actually ran stronger than Dilma (in São Bernardo do Campo, Lula's hometown, Dilma finished THIRD).

If the PT can't get a clue here soon, they'll soon be left without the only relevant job they still have in São Paulo - Fernando Haddad's one, of course.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #464 on: October 06, 2014, 06:52:34 PM »

Marina and Eduardo Campos' family will formally endorse Aecio this week according to Estadão.

It's widely believed Paulo Skaf will also endorse Aecio. That would be huge for Aecio.

Any news of what Marina will get out of this? Could she join his cabinet?

It's certainly possible, but "Marinistas" claim some agreements on some policies would be the most important - mostly embracing a green development strategy + a pledge for political reform and the extinction of reelection. Aecio Neves claim to be in favor of doing all this, so theoretically there's fertile terrain for an agreement.

The question of reelection is a curious one as every politician in Brazil is against it before being in favor of it or is in favor of it before being against it (clearly the case of Aecio, who has reelected Governor of Minas Gerais with a phenomenal performance). The PSDB created reelection back in 1996 to allow FHC to get 4 more years. Now they want Aecio to take this possibility away to get Alckmin to work for Aecio Tongue It seems to have worked, as Alckmin made a rousing speech for Aecio yesterday.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #465 on: October 06, 2014, 07:09:05 PM »

In RS, two another main contenders of 2010 gubernatorial election failed to get into chamber (former senator José Fogaça and former governor Yeda Crusius). In ES, former mayor of Vitória, Luiz Paulo Velloso Lucas failed to get elected.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #466 on: October 06, 2014, 07:26:03 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2014, 07:27:59 PM by Paleobrazilian »

The great map of the 1st round: light color shows the candidate won the city with less than 50% of the votes, dark color means more than 50% for the winner.

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freefair
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« Reply #467 on: October 06, 2014, 09:38:46 PM »

Main point was getting an overview of the level of fragmentation (big parties lose - small parties gain on average), not the ideology stuff, that was just for reference.

It's mostly a very simple left (SD)/right (Cons) distinction. "Populist centrist" is the term I have used for those with no ideology whatsoever (AFAIK).

The far left parties and Greens + the Christian Right seem to be fairly ideologically consistent, or is that not so?

the PT & Democrats also seem Ideologically very consistent- part of the reason they're very popular- because at least voters know what they stand for!
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buritobr
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« Reply #468 on: October 06, 2014, 10:09:57 PM »

In 1994, the ratio GDP per capita from São Paulo / GDP per capita from Brazil was 1.60. In 2011, this ratio was 1.51. Actually, São Paulo has lower GDP growth rates than the Brazilian average since mid 1970s.

Even before being pro-PSDB, São Paulo was anti-left. In 1989, Collor (from Alagoas) defeated Lula (from São Paulo) by 53-47 in the whole country and by 58-42 in São Paulo. Lula was supported by the PSDB candidate Mário Covas.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #469 on: October 06, 2014, 10:22:40 PM »

In 1994, the ratio GDP per capita from São Paulo / GDP per capita from Brazil was 1.60. In 2011, this ratio was 1.51. Actually, São Paulo has lower GDP growth rates than the Brazilian average since mid 1970s.

Even before being pro-PSDB, São Paulo was anti-left. In 1989, Collor (from Alagoas) defeated Lula (from São Paulo) by 53-47 in the whole country and by 58-42 in São Paulo. Lula was supported by the PSDB candidate Mário Covas.

Then again, São Paulo's economy was always way bigger than the rest, so it's obvious the rest of the country had more room to grow than São Paulo, which had over 35% of the national GDP at a certain moment.

Runoff debates:

October 13th: SBT
October 14th: Bandeirantes
October 19th: Record
October 23rd: Globo

It's hard to know what will happen, but this could be the 1st time ever since 1989 when the debates will actually matter on the presidential race. Aécio got high remarks for his performance on last Thursday's debate and he'll need to keep up the momentum. Dilma is not a great debater so he can take advantage here.

TV ads should start again later this week. Both Dilma and Aécio will have exactly the same time on the TV this time out. Both sides will go full on with negative ads and watching political ads for the next 3 weeks will be extremely painful.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #470 on: October 07, 2014, 09:54:04 AM »

Bovespa is having an excellent day today. According to rumors Aecio has offered Marina the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on his cabinet.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #471 on: October 07, 2014, 04:19:50 PM »

The PPS has (unsurprisingly) endorsed Aecio
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #472 on: October 07, 2014, 06:38:43 PM »

TV campaign starts Thursday, 10 minutes for each candidate, twice a day.
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Sec. of State Superique
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« Reply #473 on: October 07, 2014, 09:25:25 PM »

Marcelo Crivella was endorsed by Anthony Garotinho today. Since Garotinho has a strong disapproval rating, this move was not seen as good way to start. Nevertheless, Crivella has shown some low rejection ratings and seems to be a difficult challenge for Pezão in Rio.A Datafolha Poll indicated Pezão beating Crivella by only two points (51% vs 49%).
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buritobr
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« Reply #474 on: October 07, 2014, 09:55:44 PM »

Marcelo Crivella was endorsed by Anthony Garotinho today. Since Garotinho has a strong disapproval rating, this move was not seen as good way to start. Nevertheless, Crivella has shown some low rejection ratings and seems to be a difficult challenge for Pezão in Rio.A Datafolha Poll indicated Pezão beating Crivella by only two points (51% vs 49%).

Pezão could win easily against Garotinho or Lindberg. Crivella is the most difficult chalenger. I think I will vote for Pezão, but if he endorses Aécio officially, I would not vote for anyone.
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