Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[buritobr]

Historical vote of the "nanicos"

José Maria Eymael (PSDC) far right
1998: 171,831 (0.25%) 9th
2006: 63,294 (0.07%) 6th
2010: 89,350 (0.09%) 5th
2014: 61,250 (0.06%) 9th

José Maria de Almeida (PSTU) far left
1998: 202,659 (0.30%) 7th
2002: 402,236 (0.47%) 5th
2010: 84,609 (0.08%) 6th
2014: 91,209 (0.09%) 7th

Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) far left
2002: 38,619 (0.05%) 6th the last one
2010: 12,206 (0.01%) 9th the last one
2014: 12,324 (0.01%) 11th the last one

Levy Fidelix (PRTB) far right
2010: 57,960 (0.06%) 7th
2014: 446,878 (0.43%) 7th

Fidelix increased eight times his vote after saying that people cannot reproduce through the anus

[Paleobrazilian]

With a 0,57% rise in September, the inflation of the last 12 months has reached 6,75%, above the 6,5% threshold considered acceptable by the Central Bank.

[Paleobrazilian]

Rev. Everaldo has endorsed Aécio. No surprises.

[politicus]

Just found a piece on right wing blogger Reinaldo Azevedo. 30 mio. unique visitors a year is pretty impressive. Is his influence still large? How is his line of attack against Dilma?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/andersonantunes/2013/11/25/a-conversation-with-reinaldo-azevedo-brazils-most-hated-and-widely-read-blogger/

http://veja.abril.com.br/blog/reinaldo/

[Paleobrazilian]

Eduardo Jorge and the PV are officially endorsing Aecio. It'll be hard for them to convince their voters to go with Aecio, but if they manage to do this, that would be cool.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Eduardo Jorge and the PV are officially endorsing Aecio. It'll be hard for them to convince their voters to go with Aecio, but if they manage to do this, that would be cool.

Wait, that seems pretty out the blue... What was the explanation?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The explanation is that it's Brazil.

[politicus]

Eduardo Jorge and the PV are officially endorsing Aecio. It'll be hard for them to convince their voters to go with Aecio, but if they manage to do this, that would be cool.

Wait, that seems pretty out the blue... What was the explanation?

Maybe related to this?

Marina and Eduardo Campos' family will formally endorse Aecio this week according to Estadão.

Any news of what Marina will get out of this? Could she join his cabinet?

It's certainly possible, but "Marinistas" claim some agreements on some policies would be the most important - mostly embracing a green development strategy + a pledge for political reform and the extinction of reelection. Aecio Neves claim to be in favor of doing all this, so theoretically there's fertile terrain for an agreement.

[Paleobrazilian]

Luciana Genro and the PSOL are not endorsing anyone, but the party advises it's voters to vote nullify their votes or vote Dilma. Pretty obvious as Aecio goes for more economical liberalism.

Ana Amelia endorses Sartori in Rio Grande do Sul. Ana Amelia was already endorsing Aecio and Sartori, who's part of the anti-PT PMDB, is expected to follow suit.

[Colbert]

french wiki said results of chamber of deputies as are follow : (in order of %)

1 PT 13,65
2 PMDB 12,87
3 PSDB 10,53
4 PSD 7,21
5 PP 7,02
6 PSB 6,82
7 PR 6,63
8 PTB 4,87
9 DEM 4,29
10 PRB 4,09
11 PDT 3,7
12 SD 2,92
13 PSC 2,34
14 PROS 2,14
15 PPS 1,95
16 PCdB 1,95
17 PV 1,56
18 PSOL 0,98
19 PHS 0,98
20 PTN 0,78
21 PRP 0,59
22 PMN 0,59
23 PEN 0,39
24 PTC 0,39
25 PSDC 0,39
26 PSL 0,2
27 PRTB 0,2
28 PTdB 0,2



in order of gain/lose points, the results are as follow :



1 PSD 7,21
2 SD 2,92
3 PRB 2,39
4 PROS 2,14
5 PTB 0,67
6 PTN 0,58
7 PP 0,42
8 PEN 0,39
9 PRP 0,29
10 PSDC 0,19
11 PHS 0,18
12 PCO 0
13 PCB -0,1
14 PSTU -0,1
15 PRTB -0,1
16 PMDB -0,13
17 PTC -0,21
18 PSOL -0,22
19 PSB -0,28
20 PSL -0,3
21 PTdB -0,5
22 PMN -0,51
23 PPS -0,65
24 PCdB -0,85
25 PSC -0,86
26 PR -0,97
27 PDT -1,3
28 PSDB -1,37
29 PV -2,24
30 PT -3,25
31 DEM -3,31


(PCO, PCB et PSTU don't run in 2014)

[Paleobrazilian]

Sen. Cristovam Buarque (PDT-DF), Sen. Elect Antonio Reguffe (PDT-DF) and Sen./Gov. Elect Pedro Taques (PDT-MT) have thrown their party under the bus and are endorsing Aecio.

[politicus]

french wiki said results of chamber of deputies as are follow : (in order of %)

Is French wiki normally dependable with such things?
Their link to the source didn't work for me, but there are provincial results on http://divulga.tse.jus.br/oficial/index.html, so you can add those together (but I couldn't find a national total already calculated). The question is if those figures are finalized yet? Or still preliminary. I figured it would take weeks to finalize the result.

Anyway, very severe fragmentation obviusly. It will be even harder to get anything done.

[Paleobrazilian]

french wiki said results of chamber of deputies as are follow : (in order of %)

Is French wiki normally dependable with such things?
Their link to the source didn't work for me, but there are provincial results on http://divulga.tse.jus.br/oficial/index.html, so you can add those together (but I couldn't find a national total already calculated). The question is if those figures are finalized yet? Or still preliminary. I figured it would take weeks to finalize the result.

Anyway, very severe fragmentation obviusly. It will be even harder to get anything done.

Those are the final results. With the electronic ballot, counting 90+% of the ballots usually takes no more than some 4-5 hours.

[Paleobrazilian]

The PSB is officially going with Aecio. Local cells will probably be free to remain neutral or support Dilma.

[Colbert]

Wich is the most vargasist party ? PTB, PDT, PTN or PTdoB ?

[buritobr]

Wich is the most vargasist party ? PTB, PDT, PTN or PTdoB ?

PDT

Although PTB was refounded by Vargas' daughter in 1979, the politicians who joined PTB after that had nothing to do with Getúlio Vargas labor policies.

The PDT, founded by Leonel Brizola in 1979 too, is the party who supports Vargas' ideas. Brizola was a political ally from Vargas in Rio Grande do Sul.

[buritobr]

I voted for Eduardo Jorge in the first round. Eduardo Jorge is endorsing Aécio Neves now...

But I will vote for Dilma Rousseff.



It is not surprise this endorsement. The Green Party (PV) has already been partner in PSDB administrations.

[Colbert]

Wich is the most vargasist party ? PTB, PDT, PTN or PTdoB ?

PDT

Although PTB was refounded by Vargas' daughter in 1979, the politicians who joined PTB after that had nothing to do with Getúlio Vargas labor policies.

The PDT, founded by Leonel Brizola in 1979 too, is the party who supports Vargas' ideas. Brizola was a political ally from Vargas in Rio Grande do Sul.

Thank you very much.


When I read story of Brasil, I fall in love with Getulio, life and tragic death. I'm so sad brazilian people forgot it and vote only for leftist or liberal parties.

[Colbert]

by the way, is there a law to make obligations to political parties to have "party" at first name ?



I like the idea. In France, a lot of parties hides their lack of ideological point of view behind vague words like "rassembly", "union", "alliance", and so on (especially on the right)

[Paleobrazilian]

by the way, is there a law to make obligations to political parties to have "party" at first name ?



I like the idea. In France, a lot of parties hides their lack of ideological point of view behind vague words like "rassembly", "union", "alliance", and so on (especially on the right)

Actually not. In fact, there's the "Democratas" (DEM) and the Solidariedade (SD). Marina's future party will be called "Rede Sustentabilidade".

[politicus]

by the way, is there a law to make obligations to political parties to have "party" at first name ?

I like the idea. In France, a lot of parties hides their lack of ideological point of view behind vague words like "rassembly", "union", "alliance", and so on (especially on the right)

In Brazil you just get a lot of pointless  ideological labels for parties that are either clientilistic pork barrel machines without any ideology or has the opposite of the one their name seems to indicate (or some mix of the two).

There are a few leftist outfits (incl. Greens) + PT where the name is appropriate, but not otherwise (perhaps Christian Social if social has the right connotations in Portuguese)

[Mogrovejo]

First runoff poll:
Aécio - 54
Dilma - 46

http://epoca.globo.com/tempo/eleicoes/noticia/2014/10/baecio-54-x-dilma-46b-primeira-pesquisa-sobre-o-segundo-turno.html

Instituto Paraná Pesquisas for Época magazine. No idea about their reputation (the pollster, Época is a widely read magazine from Globo, the Brazilian version of Focus).

--

I'm glad Mário Jardel was elected for RGS state assembly! He was listed as "Jardel centroavante" - the other guy elected by the PSD was another former footballer listed as "Darnlei Goleiro" (Jardel the Striker and Darnlei the goalkeeper). Brazilian ballot names are a true gem.

[Niemeyerite]

I voted for Eduardo Jorge in the first round. Eduardo Jorge is endorsing Aécio Neves now...

But I will vote for Dilma Rousseff.



It is not surprise this endorsement. The Green Party (PV) has already been partner in PSDB administrations.

Same here, probably. I've actually thought about voting for Aécio, but o way I'm doing it, honesly. I'm not sure whether I'll nullify or vote for Dilma...

[Mogrovejo]

Just found a piece on right wing blogger Reinaldo Azevedo. 30 mio. unique visitors a year is pretty impressive. Is his influence still large? How is his line of attack against Dilma?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/andersonantunes/2013/11/25/a-conversation-with-reinaldo-azevedo-brazils-most-hated-and-widely-read-blogger/

http://veja.abril.com.br/blog/reinaldo/

Brazilian posters can correct me, but my impression is that magazine/newspapers consumers in Brazil skew way to the right relatively to the average/median voter.  That effect is even deeper wrt political content/blogging. So it's not surprising the most popular/influential blogger is someone from the right. Azevedo is likely still to the right of the median Brazilian right-winger.

His line of attack is that you'd expect from a classic liberal-conservative, as he defines himself in that interview, but with a heavy focus on corruption issues and plenty of political/horserace analysis. He'd probably feel at home on NRO if he were American, writing a lengthy essay from time to time and contributing with frequent posts for the Corner.

[Paleobrazilian]

That's pretty much it.