Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[buritobr]

In 1989, 1994 and 1998, nobody knew Reinaldo Azevedo. Lula lost three times.

In 2002, 2006 and 2010, Reinaldo Azevedo was one of the biggest anti-PT voice. Lula won in 2002 and 2006, and Dilma won in 2010.

Until now, he was not very sucessful.


He is a Brazilian version of American conservative pundits like Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, Billy O Reily and Sam Hannity.

[Paleobrazilian]

Reinaldo Azevedo would be considered far-left by all those names you listed.

[buritobr]

I wrote a blog post about pro-PT and pro-PSDB journalists

http://blogdomarcelobrito.blogspot.com.br/2014/10/as-maquinas-de-spining-do-pt-e-do-psdb.html

[Paleobrazilian]

The Rede has freed its supporters to either vote for Aecio or nullify their votes. They explicitly advise not voting for Dilma, though.

Marina Silva will probably make her announcement later today.

[Paleobrazilian]

Aecio nets the endorsement of José Ivo Sartori, so now he once again has a place to step in Rio Grande do Sul.

[Paleobrazilian]

Marina has delayed indefinitely her announcement. She's scared of the backlash she'll get from either choice.

[Sec. of State Superique]

Marina has delayed indefinitely her announcement. She's scared of the backlash she'll get from either choice.

You are oversimplifying things. She has a government plan and a compromise with her voters.

[Paleobrazilian]

Aecio 46% x Dilma 44% according to Datafolha.

[Paleobrazilian]

IBOPE has exactly the same numbers.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to IBOPE 41% of the voters would never vote Dilma. Aécio's rejection is at 33%

Dilma knows there's little to do to rebound within the South/Southeast, so the strategy now is trying to increase Aécio's rejection with negative ads, and trying to get as many votes in the Northeast as possible.

[Simfan34]

Aecio 46% x Dilma 44% according to Datafolha.

IBOPE has exactly the same numbers.

Praise be to God! The BOVESPA ought to be surging. But it's down 3%- why?

[politicus]

Aecio 46% x Dilma 44% according to Datafolha.

IBOPE has exactly the same numbers.

Praise be to God! The BOVESPA ought to be surging. But it's down 3%- why?

Why would it surge? Its a statistical tie.

[jaichind]

Aecio 46% x Dilma 44% according to Datafolha.

IBOPE has exactly the same numbers.

Praise be to God! The BOVESPA ought to be surging. But it's down 3%- why?

I imagine it is because the market feels that unless Aecio has a large lead, the greater scrutiny he will be put under in the rest of the campaign both from Dilma and the press will only push down his vote and in which case Aecio will most likely then lose.  Also the natural resource rout across the board does not help the Brazilian markets which is very natural resource intensive.

[Simfan34]

Marina Sets Conditions Before Announcing for Aécio

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Wait, banning re-election? What a monumentally idiotic idea. She wants him to back that? They need to scrap the law that mandates you must resign to run for office, instead.

[Simfan34]

Aecio 46% x Dilma 44% according to Datafolha.

IBOPE has exactly the same numbers.

Praise be to God! The BOVESPA ought to be surging. But it's down 3%- why?

I imagine it is because the market feels that unless Aecio has a large lead, the greater scrutiny he will be put under in the rest of the campaign both from Dilma and the press will only push down his vote and in which case Aecio will most likely then lose.  Also the natural resource rout across the board does not help the Brazilian markets which is very natural resource intensive.

The press, broadly speaking, is for Aecio, no?

[Paleobrazilian]

According to some sources the market believed Aecio would be ahead outside the margin of error. But according to Infomoney, a leading economy website from Brazil, Bovespa is just following a very bad day on markets all around the world. There's big concern of a slowdown on China (which has been crucial to keep Brazil's economy alive and well as exporting commodities to China is a huge factor of Brazil's economy). There's also concern about the general state of the economy of Europe. Finally, Christine Lagarde made a pessimistic speech about Brazil yesterday that's not going well with foreign investors.

According to Datafolha 43% of the voters would never vote Dilma, while 34% would never vote Aécio. This stat is really scaring PTists, as basically for every Dilma voter there's a voter who'd never vote Dilma. So, unless Dilma can flip most undecideds on her favor (and there are few undecideds now), Dilma may be extremely close to her roof.

[Paleobrazilian]

Marina Sets Conditions Before Announcing for Aécio

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Wait, banning re-election? What a monumentally idiotic idea. She wants him to back that? They need to scrap the law that mandates you must resign to run for office, instead.

Actually Aecio says he's in favor of banning reelection but as every politician in Brazil he'll soon be in favor of keeping things as they are if he's elected

[Paleobrazilian]

Aecio will be formally endorsed by the widow of Eduardo Campos tomorrow on a big event in Recife.

[Simfan34]

According to some sources the market believed Aecio would be ahead outside the margin of error. But according to Infomoney, a leading economy website from Brazil, Bovespa is just following a very bad day on markets all around the world. There's big concern of a slowdown on China (which has been crucial to keep Brazil's economy alive and well as exporting commodities to China is a huge factor of Brazil's economy). There's also concern about the general state of the economy of Europe. Finally, Christine Lagarde made a pessimistic speech about Brazil yesterday that's not going well with foreign investors.

According to Datafolha 43% of the voters would never vote Dilma, while 34% would never vote Aécio. This stat is really scaring PTists, as basically for every Dilma voter there's a voter who'd never vote Dilma. So, unless Dilma can flip most undecideds on her favor (and there are few undecideds now), Dilma may be extremely close to her roof.

You mean to say the Brazilian stock market isn't completely an inverse function of Dilma's poll perfomance?

[Paleobrazilian]

According to some sources the market believed Aecio would be ahead outside the margin of error. But according to Infomoney, a leading economy website from Brazil, Bovespa is just following a very bad day on markets all around the world. There's big concern of a slowdown on China (which has been crucial to keep Brazil's economy alive and well as exporting commodities to China is a huge factor of Brazil's economy). There's also concern about the general state of the economy of Europe. Finally, Christine Lagarde made a pessimistic speech about Brazil yesterday that's not going well with foreign investors.

According to Datafolha 43% of the voters would never vote Dilma, while 34% would never vote Aécio. This stat is really scaring PTists, as basically for every Dilma voter there's a voter who'd never vote Dilma. So, unless Dilma can flip most undecideds on her favor (and there are few undecideds now), Dilma may be extremely close to her roof.

You mean to say the Brazilian stock market isn't completely an inverse function of Dilma's poll perfomance?

Well, the market dislikes Dilma but they still fear more what happens in Wall Street. Once the FED increases interest rates in the US, Brazil's economy is in for a tough ride no matter who wins.

[tpfkaw]

Marina Sets Conditions Before Announcing for Aécio

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Wait, banning re-election? What a monumentally idiotic idea. She wants him to back that? They need to scrap the law that mandates you must resign to run for office, instead.

She wants to be President herself.

[Paleobrazilian]

It's believed she'll give her answer tomorrow.

Edit: Aecio released a letter today compromising with Marina on some issues. It's now believed she'll endorse him tomorrow.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to Sensus (a second tier pollster) Aecio is now ahead by a 59% to 41% margin. While I'm still waiting for a IBOPE/Datafolha confirmation, tons of info from the Petrobras scandal started to leak Thursday. This could end up being a huge factor.

[jaichind]

According to Sensus (a second tier pollster) Aecio is now ahead by a 59% to 41% margin. While I'm still waiting for a IBOPE/Datafolha confirmation, tons of info from the Petrobras scandal started to leak Thursday. This could end up being a huge factor.

I assume you mean what is the Bloomberg story below.  Hope this does not lead to problems in Petrobras.  I own a lot of medium term Petrobas bonds. 


Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Most bribes went to Rousseff’s Workers’ Party, Veja magazine reports in its Oct. 15 issue, citing former director Paulo Roberto Costa’s testimony to police and the attorney general.
Two other parties, PMDB and PP, also received millions since ’06, Veja said, citing an audio recording of Costa’s testimony
Cos. providing services to Petrobras had to pay money that went to congressmen, senators, governors, Veja said
Petrobras directors were appointed by parties knowing they’d have to participate in “bribery mission,” Veja said
Rousseff said yday to reporters in Brasilia that govt isn’t covering up alleged corruption, is allowing investigations to proceed w/out interference
The Veja article contains no comment from the political parties or a spokesman for Rousseff
The Progressive Party told Bloomberg in a text msg it’s willing to cooperate with all investigations; the Workers’ Party, presidential palace, and PMBD all didn’t immediately respond to requests by phone, e-mail and text msg for comment

[Paleobrazilian]

According to Sensus (a second tier pollster) Aecio is now ahead by a 59% to 41% margin. While I'm still waiting for a IBOPE/Datafolha confirmation, tons of info from the Petrobras scandal started to leak Thursday. This could end up being a huge factor.

I assume you mean what is the Bloomberg story below.  Hope this does not lead to problems in Petrobras.  I own a lot of medium term Petrobas bonds. 


Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Most bribes went to Rousseff’s Workers’ Party, Veja magazine reports in its Oct. 15 issue, citing former director Paulo Roberto Costa’s testimony to police and the attorney general.
Two other parties, PMDB and PP, also received millions since ’06, Veja said, citing an audio recording of Costa’s testimony
Cos. providing services to Petrobras had to pay money that went to congressmen, senators, governors, Veja said
Petrobras directors were appointed by parties knowing they’d have to participate in “bribery mission,” Veja said
Rousseff said yday to reporters in Brasilia that govt isn’t covering up alleged corruption, is allowing investigations to proceed w/out interference
The Veja article contains no comment from the political parties or a spokesman for Rousseff
The Progressive Party told Bloomberg in a text msg it’s willing to cooperate with all investigations; the Workers’ Party, presidential palace, and PMBD all didn’t immediately respond to requests by phone, e-mail and text msg for comment

That was what was learned this week. But it's believed there's much info left to be uncovered.