Brazil Election - 5 October 2014
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  Brazil Election - 5 October 2014
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Author Topic: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014  (Read 124401 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #525 on: October 11, 2014, 08:44:49 PM »

According to Sensus (a second tier pollster) Aecio is now ahead by a 59% to 41% margin. While I'm still waiting for a IBOPE/Datafolha confirmation, tons of info from the Petrobras scandal started to leak Thursday. This could end up being a huge factor.

I went back and looked.  It seems the final pre-first round Sensus poll projected President Dilma Rousseff would get 35.9% of total votes in 1st round of Brazil election vs 23.6% for Aecio Neves, 22.6% for Marina Silva.  For second round it had projected Rousseff 43.2% vs 39.2% for Neves.  Now it has Neves 52.4% vs 36.7% for Rousseff which after allocation of undecided led to 58.8 vs 41.2.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #526 on: October 12, 2014, 10:03:36 AM »

Marina has (finally) endorsed Aécio.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #527 on: October 13, 2014, 03:19:17 AM »

Alckmin must be really pissed now.
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jaichind
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« Reply #528 on: October 13, 2014, 08:05:26 AM »

BRL gained 1.4% on the Sensus poll.  One-month implied volatility on options for the BRL, reflecting projected shifts in the currency as the Oct. 26 runoff approaches, increased to 24 percent, the highest in emerging markets.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #529 on: October 13, 2014, 08:16:33 AM »


Actually he's been campaigning pretty hard for the last few days as Aecio made a firm commitment for the end of reelection.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #530 on: October 13, 2014, 08:23:49 AM »

Ibovespa is 3% up in 15 minutes of trading.

The next IBOPE and Datafolha polls will only be released Wednesday, so we'll be a bit on the dark until then. But the market seems to be optimistic about Aecio. Perhaps they have a internal poll showing something we don't know.

By the way, according to Veja's Lauro Jardim, IBOPE has decided to stop running exit polls after the huge mistakes from the 1st round. Since Datafolha doesn't run exit polls, we'll be without exit polls on October 26th if this is true Sad Perhaps Globo can throw some money to them and hopefully they'll change their minds.
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jaichind
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« Reply #531 on: October 13, 2014, 08:25:40 AM »

“All of the momentum appears to be” with Aecio Neves as Marina Silva endorsed him and Ibope poll showed him ahead of Dilma Rousseff, Capital Economics EM Economist David Rees writes in note to clients.  It’s not clear to what extent Silva’s voters will vote for Neves.  Capital Economics still expects Rousseff to win re-election by a narrow margin
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jaichind
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« Reply #532 on: October 13, 2014, 08:41:17 AM »

A gap of 8% from the first round is usually pretty large to try to overcome on the second round.  I cannot think of an example where this took in a two round national election anywhere other than France 1974 where Giscard d'Estaing overcame a 10% deficit on the first round and defeated Mitterrand by a tiny margin.  But there Giscard d'Estaing had the advantage of another center-right rival on the first round that took 15% of the vote and in the second round almost all such votes must have gone to Giscard d'Estaing.   Neves has to hope something similar takes place with Silva despite the fact that it is not clear that all of PSB is for Neves on the second round.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #533 on: October 13, 2014, 09:25:57 AM »


Actually he's been campaigning pretty hard for the last few days as Aecio made a firm commitment for the end of reelection.

Ughh!
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jaichind
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« Reply #534 on: October 13, 2014, 10:01:32 AM »

Goldman Sachs research indicates that Silva can be instrumental in delivering voters to Neves in states of Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, and in Brazil’s Northeast and that Neves is now seen as slight favorite to win.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #535 on: October 13, 2014, 12:06:34 PM »


Actually he's been campaigning pretty hard for the last few days as Aecio made a firm commitment for the end of reelection.

Well in this case it''s understandable.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #536 on: October 13, 2014, 01:40:47 PM »

I don't know if there's something bigger behind it or not, but Bovespa is up 6% right now.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #537 on: October 13, 2014, 06:33:35 PM »

According to Vox Populi (a strongly PT-biased institute) it's 45% x 44% for Dilma. I'm definitely waiting for IBOPE and Datafolha, and would take any poll other than those 2 with a grain of salt.

Then again, considering the historical PT bias of Vox Populi, I wouldn't be surprised if Aecio is some 5% ahead.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #538 on: October 13, 2014, 06:46:31 PM »

IBOPE polled the Federal District for the local race and the national race. Interesting results:

Local government: R. Rollemberg (PSB) 60% x J. Frejat (PR) 40%
Presidential: Aécio 69% x Dilma 31%

In 2010 Dilma had 53% in the runoff against Serra, Serra had 47%, so if true this would be a 22% swing from the PT to the PSDB. In the 1st round Aecio had 36% there and Dilma 23%. Marina also had 36%, so it's clear Aecio is gaining a huge chunk of her votes there. If those numbers are true and remain steady, Aecio would be reducing the 8 million vote difference that separates him from Dilma by at least some 400 thousand votes. Considering the Federal District has just under 1.9 million voters, this would be a significant number.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #539 on: October 13, 2014, 08:58:44 PM »

IBOPE polled the Federal District for the local race and the national race. Interesting results:

Local government: R. Rollemberg (PSB) 60% x J. Frejat (PR) 40%
Presidential: Aécio 69% x Dilma 31%

In 2010 Dilma had 53% in the runoff against Serra, Serra had 47%, so if true this would be a 22% swing from the PT to the PSDB. In the 1st round Aecio had 36% there and Dilma 23%. Marina also had 36%, so it's clear Aecio is gaining a huge chunk of her votes there. If those numbers are true and remain steady, Aecio would be reducing the 8 million vote difference that separates him from Dilma by at least some 400 thousand votes. Considering the Federal District has just under 1.9 million voters, this would be a significant number.
This is result of Agnelo's heavy unpopularity. Only way of Dilma recovering is doing some undercover compromise with Roriz-Arruda machine where they give Dilma votes in their places in exchange of PT machine working for Frejat.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #540 on: October 14, 2014, 09:19:37 AM »

BTW, Rollemberg officially endorsed Aecio today. Frejat is also trying to stay close to Aecio.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #541 on: October 14, 2014, 10:37:30 AM »

Well, I guess the Cocaine Man is going to be President now, unless we'll see yet another wild turn of events, lol.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #542 on: October 14, 2014, 06:11:42 PM »

The first debate of this runoff is tonight. With the tightness of the race, this is probably the most anticipated debate in 25 years.

After this debate, there will be debates on October 16th, October 19th and October 23rd.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #543 on: October 14, 2014, 07:25:56 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2014, 07:49:58 PM by Niemeyerite »

The first debate of this runoff is tonight. With the tightness of the race, this is probably the most anticipated debate in 25 years.

After this debate, there will be debates on October 16th, October 19th and October 23rd.

In which channel?
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #544 on: October 14, 2014, 08:27:48 PM »

The first debate of this runoff is tonight. With the tightness of the race, this is probably the most anticipated debate in 25 years.

After this debate, there will be debates on October 16th, October 19th and October 23rd.

In which channel?

Bandeirantes.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #545 on: October 15, 2014, 11:58:06 AM »

Bovespa is losing nearly 5% on a very nervous day with polls coming tonight + bad numbers all around the world, including significant losses from Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc.

Let's wait and see.
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Zanas
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« Reply #546 on: October 15, 2014, 04:22:22 PM »

I tend to forget that Bovespa is actually a financial indicator with ties to Dow Jones, Nasdaq and the likes, and not an RCP average of some sort...
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #547 on: October 15, 2014, 04:38:03 PM »

No changes as per Datafolha. Both candidates drop 1% and it's 45% Aecio x 43% Dilma (51% x 49% on valid votes). Aecio's rejection raised to 38% (up 4%), probably due to a flood of negative ads from Dilma, but this doesn't seem to hurt him much as 42% of voters are sure they'll vote him. Dilma also has 42% of voters sure they'll vote her, but her rejection of 42% puts her roof just a little fraction above 50%.

Now let's wait for IBOPE.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #548 on: October 15, 2014, 04:42:34 PM »

Here are the graphs. As they show, Aecio's rejection increased among voters who could vote for him, but not necessarily were voting for him. If this is true, Dilma reduced Aecio's roof a little bit, but his floor is unchanged.

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buritobr
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« Reply #549 on: October 15, 2014, 06:20:59 PM »

After the cover of three weekly magazines (Saturday) and after the endorsement of Marina Silva (Sunday), Aécio Neves did not wide the gap.

This Datafolha poll was done in two days: October 14th and October 15th. The first day of interviews took place before the debate. The second day of interviews took place after the debate. So, we can not evaluate the impact of the debate yet.

Even the columnists of the conservative newspaper O Globo considered that Dilma Rousseff performed better in the debate.
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