Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Paleobrazilian]

I don't think the debate will have much of an impact. The audience wasn't that big. The only debate that actually influences undecideds is the Globo one, the others are mostly for TV ads and getting the base excited.

And Aecio had already grabbed 64% of Marina votes, so it was all about consolidating the gains this week.

[Paleobrazilian]

IBOBE and Datafolha have exactly the same numbers once again, LOL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I tend to forget that Bovespa is actually a financial indicator with ties to Dow Jones, Nasdaq and the likes, and not an RCP average of some sort...

^^ Yeah, it's downright creepy that the Brazilian stock market is gets so much importance and attention in an electoral campaign.

[Paleobrazilian]

This is solely Dilma's fault. She decided to change many of the fundamentals Lula applied between 2003 and 2010, and now the inflation is on the rise and Brazil's growth has been mediocre for the last 4 years. If she's reelected, she'll have to make mends with the private sector urgently.

The situation is so bizarre that Dilma actually "fired" her Finance Minister, but he'll stay on the job until December, and there's no clue whatsoever about who will succeed him.

BTW, once again Bovespa is falling, but once again mostly due to the general mood of markets around the World.

[Paleobrazilian]

One of the hardest jobs now is trying to understand how the 6% of undecideds will break. That's tricky as this graph will show - 9% of all voters only decided who they'd vote for on election day.



Curiously, the amount of voters who claim they settled for Aecio on election day is not different from the amount of Dilma and Marina. This shows he probably underpolled the whole time.

According to Datafolha most undecideds now are poorer Dilma and Marina voters who are lost after the 1st round. I think Dilma won't have much trouble bringing back her votes back to her tally. The question is, can Aecio convince poorer Marina voters still undecided they should vote for him? Marina's support will be crucial for this. Marina is expected to take a larger role on Aecio's campaign for now on, they're producing TV ads together and Marina should get move vocal as the election day closes in. One advantage is that most of those undecideds are women, and Aecio does better with women than Dilma.

I think Dilma made a mistake by nuking Marina so hard. Many left-leaning middle class Marina votes who could have voted Dilma are now either nullifying their votes or even voting Aecio, as he definitely made a move to the center (and in some aspects to the left) over the last few days to capture those Marina voters.

All in, the roof of both Dilma and Aecio seems to be set at no more than 52-53% of the valid votes. That's why this runoff will be so tight.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

All in, the roof of both Dilma and Aecio seems to be set at no more than 52-53% of the valid votes. That's why this runoff will be so tight.

Well, we may very well see the closest presidential election ever (IIRC the closest runoff was 1989 and the closest election before runoff system was 1955).

[Paleobrazilian]

All in, the roof of both Dilma and Aecio seems to be set at no more than 52-53% of the valid votes. That's why this runoff will be so tight.

Well, we may very well see the closest presidential election ever (IIRC the closest runoff was 1989 and the closest election before runoff system was 1955).

Exactly. And the tighest national election ever was the vice presidential election of 1950, won by Café Filho. The 1960 VP election was also very tight and could well have changed the history of Brazil.

[Paleobrazilian]

After performing rather poorly on tonight's debate, Dilma started feeling unwell in front of all cameras due to a fall on blood pressure. I think today's debate may have more of a lasting impact than Tuesday's one, so let's see.

[buritobr]

The Economist endorsed Aécio Neves. No surprises.

In the USA, The Economist has already endorsed republican and democratic candidates. In the UK, The Economist has already endorsed conservative and labour candidates. In Italy, The Economist has already been against Berlusconi. Outside these three countries, this newspaper had always endorsed the candidates of the Right.

[MaxQue]

The Economist endorsed Aécio Neves. No surprises.

In the USA, The Economist has already endorsed republican and democratic candidates. In the UK, The Economist has already endorsed conservative and labour candidates. In Italy, The Economist has already been against Berlusconi. Outside these three countries, this newspaper had always endorsed the candidates of the Right.

They endorsed Labor in 2013 in Australia.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

All in, the roof of both Dilma and Aecio seems to be set at no more than 52-53% of the valid votes. That's why this runoff will be so tight.

Well, we may very well see the closest presidential election ever (IIRC the closest runoff was 1989 and the closest election before runoff system was 1955).

Exactly. And the tighest national election ever was the vice presidential election of 1950, won by Café Filho. The 1960 VP election was also very tight and could well have changed the history of Brazil.

A fascinating what-if scenario. Without Goulart next in line, there wouldn't be much point for Quadros to attempt his resignation scheme. Yet I remember opinions that with Quadros' losing all political support for his policies (and his style of governing) some sort of a coup was be likely anyway, though maybe the generals wouldn't go as far as installing military regime for twenty long years.

[EPG]

The Economist endorsed Aécio Neves. No surprises.

In the USA, The Economist has already endorsed republican and democratic candidates. In the UK, The Economist has already endorsed conservative and labour candidates. In Italy, The Economist has already been against Berlusconi. Outside these three countries, this newspaper had always endorsed the candidates of the Right.

This is not the case, and not just in Australia but also Canada.

[Mogrovejo]

The Economist endorsed Aécio Neves. No surprises.

In the USA, The Economist has already endorsed republican and democratic candidates. In the UK, The Economist has already endorsed conservative and labour candidates. In Italy, The Economist has already been against Berlusconi. Outside these three countries, this newspaper had always endorsed the candidates of the Right.

This is not the case, and not just in Australia but also Canada.

Yeah, they endorsed Labor in 2001 in Australia as well. And they've endorsed Congress in India, the Kemalists in Turkey and a few others.

It's to be excepted that they tend to endorse left of center parties more often in the Anglosphere because the ideological average tends to be more to the right relatively to most of the other countries - surely relatively to South America (although they rarely endorse in non-Anglo countries). Plus, they have a strong bias against incumbent governments that are perceived as sleazy in the management of public resources or corruption prone and (fairly or unfairly) that's the case of Dilma's government - it's central to their endorsement editorial.

[Paleobrazilian]

New Sensus poll:



Sensus is to the PSDB what Vox Populi is to the PT so take this one with a grain of salt. My gut feeling is that this race is the same dead heat it was Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Veja magazine reported it'll be revealed that Dilma used bribes from Petrobras to illegally finance her campaign in 2010, and that those bribes also helped her having support from Congress. Both allegations have been rumored for a long while. If she's reelected, and if those allegations are confirmed, an impeachment is not a unrealistic scenario.

[Keystone Phil]

Rousseff will not be re-elected.

[Tender Branson]

Rousseff will not be re-elected.

For once, I agree with you ...

I have said right after the 1st round that she's in trouble.

[Niemeyerite]

Rousseff will not be re-elected.

I think she won't, but I wouldn't be so sure. That's why you will be mocked if she loses: being sure of the outcome of elections you know nothing about is risky.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rousseff will not be re-elected.

Thank you, now I feel much better about her chances.

[Keystone Phil]

Rousseff will not be re-elected.

I think she won't, but I wouldn't be so sure. That's why you will be mocked if she loses: being sure of the outcome of elections you know nothing about is risky.

I stand by my previous "infamous" prediction: Sarkozy will be re-elected. I just never said when.

And let's have a little check on yourself, buddy: you complain about arrogance but you are arrogantly sure that I "know nothing about" these races. 

[buritobr]

State polls Ibope October 16

Rio Grande do Sul
Aécio 51% Dilma 49%

Paraíba
Dilma 60% Aécio 40%

Pará
Dilma 56% Aécio 44%

Rio de Janeiro
Dilma 53% Aécio 47%

Ceará
Dilma 78% Aécio 22%


Results of the first round

Rio Grande do Sul
Dilma 43,2%  Aécio 41,4%  Marina 11,5%  Luciana 2,3%

Paraíba
Dilma 55,6%  Aécio 23,4%  Marina 18,8%  Luciana 0,8%

Pará
Dilma 53,2%  Aécio 27,6%  Marina 16,3%  Everaldo 1,1%  Luciana 1,1%

Rio de Janeiro
Dilma 35,6%  Marina 31,1%  Aécio 26,9%  Luciana 2,7%

Ceará
Dilma 68,3%  Aécio 15,0%  Marina 14,1%  Luciana 1,2%


In some states, Dilma is not having much more than Dilma + Luciana votes. A large majority of Marina votes are going to Aécio. In Rio de Janeiro (the third most populous state), Dilma still has the minority of Marina votes, but has a significant share of these votes.

[buritobr]

The Economist is not as conservative as Veja and Época. The british magazine has a more positive view on Lula than the Brazilian magazines have.

[Niemeyerite]

Rousseff will not be re-elected.

I think she won't, but I wouldn't be so sure. That's why you will be mocked if she loses: being sure of the outcome of elections you know nothing about is risky.

I stand by my previous "infamous" prediction: Sarkozy will be re-elected. I just never said when.

And let's have a little check on yourself, buddy: you complain about arrogance but you are arrogantly sure that I "know nothing about" these races. 

I'm so humble that I think I know almost nothing about Brazil elections, so, obviously, I believe you know nothing about them =p

[Velasco]

Rousseff will not be re-elected.

I think she won't, but I wouldn't be so sure. That's why you will be mocked if she loses: being sure of the outcome of elections you know nothing about is risky.

I stand by my previous "infamous" prediction: Sarkozy will be re-elected. I just never said when.

And let's have a little check on yourself, buddy: you complain about arrogance but you are arrogantly sure that I "know nothing about" these races. 

Do you know anything about the race? It's possible that you know something, but I wouldn't give that for granted. Said this, it's obvious that Dilma has many chances of not being reelected. Did you predict in 2012 the reelection of Sarkozy in the 2017 race? If that's the case, I congratulate you for your developed clairvoyance (if Sarko wins the UMP nomination and the 2017 elections, of course). If that's not the case, you are competing at an advantage

[Keystone Phil]

Rousseff will not be re-elected.

I think she won't, but I wouldn't be so sure. That's why you will be mocked if she loses: being sure of the outcome of elections you know nothing about is risky.

I stand by my previous "infamous" prediction: Sarkozy will be re-elected. I just never said when.

And let's have a little check on yourself, buddy: you complain about arrogance but you are arrogantly sure that I "know nothing about" these races. 

Do you know anything about the race? It's possible that you know something, but I wouldn't give that for granted. Said this, it's obvious that Dilma has many chances of not being reelected. Did you predict in 2012 the reelection of Sarkozy in the 2017 race? If that's the case, I congratulate you for your developed clairvoyance (if Sarko wins the UMP nomination and the 2017 elections, of course). If that's not the case, you are competing at an advantage

I said in 2012 that Sarkozy will be re-elected. I was just wise enough not to say when he'd win another term.

[Paleobrazilian]

This election will be unpredictable until 8:00 PM Brasília time on October 26th.