Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa is having a good day and Petrobras stock is gaining over 4%. I'd guess some investors are taking a bet.

On a side note, info from Petrobras is leaking quickly right now. According to Estadão, Eduardo Campos got 20 million reais from the scheme to fund his gubernatorial campaign in 2010.

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa is now gaining nearly 4% with Petrobras up 7%. One can only hope the market knows something we don't.

[Paleobrazilian]

Edit: false alarm for now. But according to tracking polls the trend we saw the last week may be reversing.

[Paleobrazilian]

All sorts of rumors flying around right now. I think the election may have tightened again.

[jaichind]

It seems the rumors are based on my google translate of

http://blogs.estadao.com.br/sonia-racy/matematica-12/

Where private polls by banks suggest technical tie after Ibope, Datafolha results Thur. indicated 6-8ppt Rousseff lead.  Then Sensus poll this morning showing 9ppt Neves lead also fuels argument of 50/50 chance.  

[Kraxner]

The early polls that had Aécio in the lead might of made him and his followers too complacent, I noticed from his twitter that it wasnt until the polls went back into a Dilma lead that photographs of him campaigning big time started to show up.

Hopefully the tight polls did what also happened in the Scottish Referendum when a poll with the independence side in the lead caused panic by the No side because they thought they could win easily become polls prior gave them comfortable leads until the month, actually helped them by forcing them to actually campaign when they were MIA prior to that single poll.

[Paleobrazilian]

It seems the rumors are based on my google translate of

http://blogs.estadao.com.br/sonia-racy/matematica-12/

Where private polls by banks suggest technical tie after Ibope, Datafolha results Thur. indicated 6-8ppt Rousseff lead.  Then Sensus poll this morning showing 9ppt Neves lead also fuels argument of 50/50 chance.  

I've learned about 5 possible internals from banks, 4 of them show Aecio leading and one has it 50-50. According to rumors, that's why Bovespa rose so quickly today.

[buritobr]

Tracking PT 10/24
Dilma 55  Aécio 45
The same numbers of 10/23. During the runoff, the PT tracking results were close to Ibope results

Tracking BTG (considering not only the valid votes)
Dilma 47  Aécio 41


Bovespa went up 2.3%. It reached 3% in the morning.

[Paleobrazilian]

Those BTG numbers don't match the ones that were leaked to market operators.

[jaichind]

I assume polls close 7 PM Brasília Time this sunday.  Where can I watch streaming video feed of news coverage and where can I see results posted online ?

[buritobr]

Polls close at 5PM everywhere. The time zone of the State of Acre has a difference of two hours compared to Brasília. And in Acre, there is no daylight saving time. So, the difference now is three hours.
That's why the results will be announced at 8PM Brasília time
You can see the results at http://g1.globo.com/index.html

I believe that most of the polls will be already processed at 8PM. So, the winner will be announced that time. There will be some heart attacks at 7:50PM

[Paleobrazilian]

I assume polls close 7 PM Brasília Time this sunday.  Where can I watch streaming video feed of news coverage and where can I see results posted online ?

Only at 8PM due to daylight saving time, which started last Sunday. Once results start being released, at least 80% of all polls will probably have been counted. State results will start being released as soon as polls close on each state with a runoff.

[Paleobrazilian]

The last debate just ended, no real game changer. It's now up to the voters. The campaign has officially ended as well.

My prediction right now is 52% x 48% for Dilma.

[Paleobrazilian]

Folha and Estadão, Brazil's largest newspapers, have confirmed the allegations made by Veja are true. There was panic yesterday regarding Veja within the PT, and accusations that street newsstands on cities governed by the PT were being threatened of having their working authorization revoked.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to MDA Aecio has reclaimed the lead by the slightest of the margins: 50,3% x 49,7%.

[jaichind]

I wonder how PT and Dilma justify to themselves and their supporters how the market has reacted these last few weeks.  The fact is the market surges when there are signs Dilma will lose and falls when there are signs that Dilma will win.  And this is during a period of great market turmoil in the world with respect to oil prices, as well as speculation of possible economic slowdowns in USA, Europe and PRC. But none of that seems to matter relative to Dilma election chances.  This level of correlation between market shifts and perceived chances of political change is the largest I have seen.  The fact is that people with a proven track record of judging economic value has voted thumbs down on Dilma.  Dilma and PT could just say that is just a knee jerk reaction of the wealthy reactionaries who are out to stop her progressive agenda.  But the fact is that financial markets all over the worlds always tend to rally when the incumbent wins or is about to win and drops when there are signs of a political change, regardless of if the incumbent is center-right or center-left.   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder how PT and Dilma justify to themselves and their supporters how the market has reacted these last few weeks.

I don't think they have to.

[Paleobrazilian]

The last polls will be released in exactly 1 hour because polls will soon open in places like New Zealand, Australia and Japan. Datafolha polled nearly 20000 voters between yesterday and today, so their poll should be fairly accurate. Ibope, meanwhile, will have a much smaller sample (3000 voters), and they have been polling voters since Monday, so I'm not putting much stock on their poll (according to sources it'll show the same numbers it showed Thursday).

[Paleobrazilian]

Thousands have taken the cities of the largest cities of Brazil in pro-Aecio rallies. Even if Aecio loses tomorrow, the seed has been planted. 50000 in São Paulo's most famous avenue, Avenida Paulista. Amazing if you look back just a month ago.

[buritobr]

No matter who win the election, the other half of the country will be very angry. This is not good.

It was different than what happened in 1994, when Fernando Henrique Cardoso was elected for the first term, and 2002, when Lula da Silva was elected for the first term. Even the ones who did not vote for them were hoping that better times for the country were coming.

[buritobr]

I wonder how PT and Dilma justify to themselves and their supporters how the market has reacted these last few weeks.  The fact is the market surges when there are signs Dilma will lose and falls when there are signs that Dilma will win.  And this is during a period of great market turmoil in the world with respect to oil prices, as well as speculation of possible economic slowdowns in USA, Europe and PRC. But none of that seems to matter relative to Dilma election chances.  This level of correlation between market shifts and perceived chances of political change is the largest I have seen.  The fact is that people with a proven track record of judging economic value has voted thumbs down on Dilma.  Dilma and PT could just say that is just a knee jerk reaction of the wealthy reactionaries who are out to stop her progressive agenda.  But the fact is that financial markets all over the worlds always tend to rally when the incumbent wins or is about to win and drops when there are signs of a political change, regardless of if the incumbent is center-right or center-left.   

http://www.cartacapital.com.br/revista/810/o-mercado-contra-dilma-6308.html

Although this article comes from a leftist magazine, it presents a good and neutral description about how do the financial markets work during the 2014 election

[buritobr]

Ibope

Dilma 49%, Aécio 43%
valid votes: Dilma 53%, Aécio 47%


Datafolha

Dilma 47%, Aécio 43%
valid votes: Dilma 52%, Aécio 48%

[Paleobrazilian]

Leans Dilma, but we could be in for a few surprises tomorrow.

[Paleobrazilian]

I wonder what was the result considering only today's results. The audience was unusually big and Dilma made a mess of herself yesterday. Many voters had never seen her on a debate until yesterday I'd bet.

[buritobr]

It is not possible to predict who will be the winner.

The difference fell down. Aécio performed better on the debate yesterday.
Jornal Nacional will show the "denounce" made by Veja concerning Youssef and will show that 200 members of the Youth of the Communist Party, in a protest, painted the wall of Editora Abril building, the publisher who publishes the magazine Veja. 200 stupid people can decide the election.
There was violence from both sides during the campaign. There were cases when PT activists suffered physical violence, like this one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3GLLeilguo

But the case of painted wall will be watched by many people in the eve of the second round.