Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Paleobrazilian]

Minas Gerais and Pernambuco cost Aecio this election.

How the hell did Aecio experienced such problems with his home state, given his astronomical approvals?

It's the northern part of the state, which is basically a northeastern area in the southeast. I guess Aecio had huge wins in the southern part of Minas Gerais.

But I thought he had an 92% approval rating when he left office, would that not have translated into a lot of support for him even in the northern part of the state which I gather from what you wrote has a pro-PT tilt.

That area of Minas Gerais is hugely dependent of social benefits and as always the PT claimed Aecio would cut all benefits if elected.

[Paleobrazilian]

We are not the red states and the blue states. We are Brazil.

That's a very simplistic way of looking at Brazil. We're a more divided country than ever right now.

[Paleobrazilian]

When you look at the states Aecio and Dilma won, the map looks exactly the same as it was in 2010. Aecio ran amazingly well in the South and very well in the Center-West as well. In São Paulo he had an unprecedented win. If it weren't for the Northeast firewall, Aecio would have won.

Tensions will be huge and Dilma probably won't try to reconcile with the areas that largely rejected her. That's a dangerous recipe.

[Kraxner]

What a upset....

 low approval ratings, economy in recession, lackluster debate performances, and a corruption scandal wasn't enough to take down an incumbent...



somewhere thousands of miles away in the Élysée Palace, somebody with glasses is probably going "YES!! i have a chance!!!"

[Niemeyerite]

When you look at the states Aecio and Dilma won, the map looks exactly the same as it was in 2010. Aecio ran amazingly well in the South and very well in the Center-West as well. In São Paulo he had an unprecedented win. If it weren't for the Northeast firewall, Aecio would have won.

Tensions will be huge and Dilma probably won't try to reconcile with the areas that largely rejected her. That's a dangerous recipe.

Why are you so sure of that? I'm almost sure she'll try to reconcile with Sao Paulo, at least.

[Simfan34]

Actually, when looking for the political future of Brazil, the economic debate will be hugely important, because Dilma swears she'll double down on the economic fundamentals that are making the economy tumble.

Thankfully it's the voters, and not the stock markets, who resolved this debate.

Ugh.

[Paleobrazilian]

When you look at the states Aecio and Dilma won, the map looks exactly the same as it was in 2010. Aecio ran amazingly well in the South and very well in the Center-West as well. In São Paulo he had an unprecedented win. If it weren't for the Northeast firewall, Aecio would have won.

Tensions will be huge and Dilma probably won't try to reconcile with the areas that largely rejected her. That's a dangerous recipe.

Why are you so sure of that? I'm almost sure she'll try to reconcile with Sao Paulo, at least.

Because she turned to the left during the campaign, she adopted a strong "us against them" rhetoric, and most within the party (specially the more radical base) want her to do such.

[RodPresident]

With Pimentel as governor, PT can solidify hold in Minas getting more strength. With São Paulo's performance, local PSDB will try to reclaim back national PSDB control. Santa Catarina, Aécio's best state, have a pro-Dilma governor (Raimundo Colombo, PSD, former DEM) and suffred with violence's troubles. Now, PT has to recover Haddad's image in São Paulo. And I believe it, as Haddad will try to keep alliance with Maluf's PP and Kassab's PSD and with PMDB, as Skaf probably will leave it and Chalita is going to live in NYC, that will give a large advantadge in free-air TV time.

[Paleobrazilian]

Very very brief concession speech by Aecio. How funny things are. One month ago I said the political career of Aecio was over. Now he's the mandatory candidate of the party for 2018 and with the generational transition and the troubles I predict for the next 4 years I feel he'll start as the frontrunner.

[tpfkaw]

Will Marina Silva run again, or is she now finished politically?

[Paleobrazilian]

She'll be out of public office for over 8 years and she'll have the hard mission of structuring her party. Possible, certainly. I wouldn't rule out a Aecio-Marina Silva megaticket though.

[Paleobrazilian]

In her winning speech, Dilma says she's open to the dialogue but hardly makes a pledge to those that didn't vote for her. She promises a plebiscite for the political reform.

[jaichind]

========================================================
                         Dilma       Aécio       Counted              Swing from
                         Rousseff    Neves       votes                       2010
========================================================
Overall:               51.6%       48.4%       99.8%                +4.5%
--------------------------------------------------------
Acre                    36.4%       63.6%       86.9%                TBD
Alagoas               62.1%       37.9%       100.0%               -8.5%
Amapá                61.5%       38.4%       100.0%              +1.1%
Amazonas           65.0%       35.0%       99.7%               +15.6%
Bahia                  70.1%       29.9%       98.3%                 +0.8%
Ceará                  76.8%       23.3%       100.0%               +0.6%
Distrito Federal    38.1%       61.9%       100.0%             +14.7%
Espírito Santo      46.2%       53.9%       100.0%              +3.1%
Goiás                   42.9%       57.1%       100.0%              +6.4%
Maranhão            78.8%       21.3%       99.9%                +0.4%
Mato Grosso        45.3%       54.7%       99.9%                 +3.6%
Mato Grosso        43.7%       56.3%       100.0%               +1.2%
do Sul  
Minas Gerais        52.4%       47.6%       100.0%              +6.1%
Pará                    57.4%       42.6%       99.8%                 -4.2%
Paraíba                64.3%       35.7%       100.0%              -2.8%
Paraná                39.0%       61.0%       100.0%              +5.6%
Pernambuco        70.2%       29.8%       99.9%                +5.5%
Piauí                   78.3%       21.7%       99.9%                 -8.3%
Rio de Janeiro      54.9%       45.1%       100.0%              +5.6%
Rio Grande          70.0%       30.0%       100.0%             -10.5%
 do Norte
Rio Grande          46.5%       53.5%       100.0%              +2.6%
  do Sul
Rondônia             45.2%       54.9%       100.0%              +2.3%
Roraima              41.1%       58.9%       100.0%               -7.7%
Santa Catarina    35.4%       64.6%       100.0%               +8.0%
São Paulo            35.7%       64.3%       100.0%             +10.3%
Sergipe                67.0%       33.0%       100.0%             -13.4%
Tocantins            59.5%       40.5%       99.9%                -0.6%
========================================================

[Paleobrazilian]

The great election maps.

In 2010  Dark color is over 65%, light color is under 65%:



Now in 2014. Lighter color over 50%, medium color over 60%, dark color over 70%:



As you can see, Aecio had a massive swing to him in the South and in São Paulo. Those dark blue areas now abundant in the South-Southeast are a densely populated area that pretty much went strongly for Aecio. Also, pretty much all red in those areas became light, meaning a very tight win for Dilma in the most rural areas of the South and São Paulo. Also, notice how some transitional areas became more light-red, specially central Minas Gerais. All in, Aecio maxed out on his territory and Dilma survived due to her rock-strong firewall. Brazil is now more polarized than ever, but when you look for the future, I think this firewall won't be enough to protect the PT in 2018.

[Paleobrazilian]

Dilma didn't mention Aecio in her speech. It's clear she'll try to move further to the left and create tension. Her "union" speech is blatantly false.

[jaichind]

I definitively do see what Paleobrazilian is pointing out in terms of regional divergence.  On thing I noticed which is really the same thing is that the swing toward Aecio is negatively correlated with the 2010 Serra vote.  This runs counter to the statistical convergence to the mean one would normally expect.

[jaichind]

Brazilian Stock ETF Tumbles in Tokyo Trading on Rousseff Victory falling 5.3% at the open. So it begins.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You couldn't call Dilma perfect, but this is still a pleasing outcome.

[jaichind]

Nomura expects BRL is break 2.52 which would means it will weaken to its lowest level versus USA since 2005.   Nomura also expects Dilma to continue the BRL FX swap program.  I hope this is not true as it will just continue to double down on a bad BRL trade that is about to get at lot worse.  PT might run rings around Goldman Sachs when it comes to winning an election, but when it comes to complex FX derivatives who do you think will come out ahead, Goldman or PT ?  Dilma has to work toward floating BRL as soon as possible and even if she wants to make it an orderly devaluation she should use the Brazil  foreign currency reserves to do so in an orderly manner.   

[Paleobrazilian]

Aecio actually won São Paulo so big he even won São Bernardo do Campo, the home of Lula and the birthplace of the PT, by over 10%. Minas may have been a disappointment overall but Aecio had a massive 30% win in Belo Horizonte. It was the north of the state that did the damage.

[Hash]

I've said it before, but since certain people are apparently illiterate, I need to say it again: this isn't the Economics board. Take the 'but muh stocks' and related discussion to where it belongs. This thread is solely for discussing the election and its results. I won't say it again.

[Colbert]

happy of this reelection. Brasil could have turn to columbia with the victory of the liberal candidate.


(and vargasist PDT choose Rousseff)

[jaichind]

Political analyst Andre Cesar indicate that Rousseff

Doesn’t have much time to act.
Needs to reach out to opposition, including Aecio Neves
Needs to “re-build bridges that were burnt”

and that

There’s a tiredness of Workers Party model
New finance minister can’t be linked to Workers Party
Brazil is divided along class and regional lines which is at risk of being permeate

 

[tpfkaw]

I've said it before, but since certain people are apparently illiterate, I need to say it again: this isn't the Economics board. Take the 'but muh stocks' and related discussion to where it belongs. This thread is solely for discussing the election and its results. I won't say it again.

I would say that the direct effects of an election are perfectly relevant to a thread about said election.

Also, financial markets analysis is not typically contained under the umbrella of the academic field of "economics."

[Paleobrazilian]

I've said it before, but since certain people are apparently illiterate, I need to say it again: this isn't the Economics board. Take the 'but muh stocks' and related discussion to where it belongs. This thread is solely for discussing the election and its results. I won't say it again.

I would say that the direct effects of an election are perfectly relevant to a thread about said election.

Also, financial markets analysis is not typically contained under the umbrella of the academic field of "economics."

Exactly. And the economical agenda will be the #1 challenge of Dilma right now. And if she doesn't give us a clear sign soon, the mistrust we saw over the last 2 months will grow even more and threaten the stability of the government, which is already being shaken by a brewing political scandal.