Brazil Election - 5 October 2014
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  Brazil Election - 5 October 2014
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Author Topic: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014  (Read 124404 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #775 on: October 26, 2014, 08:50:57 PM »

Brazil will probably face some softening in labor market, Christopher Garman, head of emerging markets research at political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, said by phone.  Things he said does not seem to indicate that the the second term of Rousseff would be positive in any way.

"The odds of moving on economic reforms in her second term are pretty low’’

"The odds of her being a weak president in her second term are reasonably high’’

"She faces international economic headwinds, a scandal at Petrobras; she’s going to respond to this by making some constructive overtures to the private sector, have an economic team that will deliver some improvements on fiscal management’’

"She’s not going to make a significant fiscal adjustment.’’

"She’s going to move in a more constructive direction but it’s going to piecemeal and in a moderate fashion. I don’t see a positive credibility shock’’

"The call for political reform for her is a political move in a context where you have a brewing corruption scandal in Petrobras, which could be a liability for her and her team’’

"It’s going to be tough. Political reform is difficult to get a consensus on’’
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #776 on: October 26, 2014, 08:58:39 PM »

Aecio nearly won the city of Rio de Janeiro, one of the most trully left-wing cities in Brazil.

He also fared much better than the PSDB usually does in the whole state of Rio de Janeiro, a 5.5% swing from the PT to the PSDB. In the end, it was a 55-45 win for Dilma there.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #777 on: October 26, 2014, 09:02:38 PM »

Despite not winning Minas Gerais, Aecio improved the PSDB performance there by 6%. Belo Horizonte went for Aecio by a 30% margin. Perhaps Aecio opened a new way for the PSDB on national elections there.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #778 on: October 26, 2014, 09:07:13 PM »

According to sources who followed the counting in the TSE, Aecio led the counting until 89% of the ballots were counted. PSDBs were very confident on their tracking polls. In the end it just wasn't supposed to be this time for them.
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jaichind
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« Reply #779 on: October 26, 2014, 09:07:19 PM »

What took place in Alagoas and Sergipe? Aecio got completely smashed there and lost double digit or near double digit swings from 2010.  Same for Rio Grande do Norte and Piauí.  All of them arefrom the same region of the Northeast.  Why is the Northeast so much more anti-PSDB than 2010 ?
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #780 on: October 26, 2014, 09:18:50 PM »

What took place in Alagoas and Sergipe? Aecio got completely smashed there and lost double digit or near double digit swings from 2010.  Same for Rio Grande do Norte and Piauí.  All of them arefrom the same region of the Northeast.  Why is the Northeast so much more anti-PSDB than 2010 ?

In Alagoas Serra counted with the coattails of Teotonio Vilela Filho. In Rio Grande do Norte Serra had the coattails of Rosalba Ciarlini and José Agripino. Piauí is the 2nd poorest state in Brazil so the increase of social benefits helped there, plus the coattails of the new Governor Wellington Dias. Sergipe I don't know, at least not for now.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #781 on: October 26, 2014, 09:22:11 PM »

What took place in Alagoas and Sergipe? Aecio got completely smashed there and lost double digit or near double digit swings from 2010.  Same for Rio Grande do Norte and Piauí.  All of them arefrom the same region of the Northeast.  Why is the Northeast so much more anti-PSDB than 2010 ?
In Alagoas, PSDB governor Vilela didn't ran for nothing and Renan Calheiros Jr. won governorship in 1st round. In Rio Grande do Norte, Serra had then elected-governor Rosalba Ciarlini's endorsement and Dilma had support from a weak incumbent, while now governor-elect Robinson Faria (PSD) and Henrique Eduardo Alves (PMDB) endorsed her. In Sergipe, governor-elect Jackson Barreto (PMDB) worked for Dilma and Mayor of Aracaju João Alves didn't put much strength. And Piaui elected Wellington Dias (PT) for a 3rd term. I believe that is because Northeast needs Federal government support, then with pro-Dilma governors, there are massive swings to her.
And Alagoas was Serra's only state in Lula's 2002 first victory.
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jaichind
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« Reply #782 on: October 26, 2014, 09:23:19 PM »

This election seems to also be the victory for Datafolha.  Their last poll of 52-48 was pretty much on target.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #783 on: October 26, 2014, 09:23:39 PM »

Actually, until the results were released, PSDBists were VERY confident they had won. Their tracking polls correctly showed the huge wave in São Paulo and in the South. They just expected to do a little better in the Northeast and in Minas.

They were so confident Aecio had won that FHC, Alckmin and Serra rushed to an airplane and flew to Belo Horizonte. 5 minutes before the results were released, many extremely reliable PSDB sources were cautiously celebrating.
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ag
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« Reply #784 on: October 26, 2014, 09:33:26 PM »

This fast reporting is a travesty! Imagine, how much fun it would have been if we could see that live!

Live football broadcasts should be banned. Then the rest of the world would know, how we feel!

Thanks god for Ukraine!
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RodPresident
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« Reply #785 on: October 26, 2014, 09:35:46 PM »

This election seems to also be the victory for Datafolha.  Their last poll of 52-48 was pretty much on target.
I hope that they poll Bahia statewide election in 2018. IBOPE made horrible job there.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #786 on: October 26, 2014, 09:36:18 PM »

With a total of about 54.500.000 votes, Dilma will have about 2.2% less total votes than she had in 2010. Aecio, meanwhile, had just over 51 million votes, a 16.7% increase on total votes compared to Serra 2010. I think the trend we're observing is very positive for the PSDB, they pretty much won ALL the new vote. I'm optimistic about 2018.
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jaichind
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« Reply #787 on: October 26, 2014, 09:39:11 PM »

This fast reporting is a travesty! Imagine, how much fun it would have been if we could see that live!

Live football broadcasts should be banned. Then the rest of the world would know, how we feel!

Thanks god for Ukraine!

My thoughts exactly.  They took all the fun out of it.  If they are going to say that results cannot be released until everyone has voted, then they should not start counting the vote until everyone has voted.
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ag
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« Reply #788 on: October 26, 2014, 09:40:32 PM »

This fast reporting is a travesty! Imagine, how much fun it would have been if we could see that live!

Live football broadcasts should be banned. Then the rest of the world would know, how we feel!

Thanks god for Ukraine!

My thoughts exactly.  They took all the fun out of it.  If they are going to say that results cannot be released until everyone has voted, then they should not start counting the vote until everyone has voted.

ECI does it right Smiley Let us all go for Ukraine then Smiley) It seems to be very much fun there.
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jaichind
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« Reply #789 on: October 26, 2014, 09:42:30 PM »

This fast reporting is a travesty! Imagine, how much fun it would have been if we could see that live!

Live football broadcasts should be banned. Then the rest of the world would know, how we feel!

Thanks god for Ukraine!

My thoughts exactly.  They took all the fun out of it.  If they are going to say that results cannot be released until everyone has voted, then they should not start counting the vote until everyone has voted.

ECI does it right Smiley Let us all go for Ukraine then Smiley) It seems to be very much fun there.

There is also the technical point that counting the vote but not releasing it actually makes it easier to commit fraud. 
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Colbert
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« Reply #790 on: October 26, 2014, 09:44:59 PM »

This fast reporting is a travesty! Imagine, how much fun it would have been if we could see that live!

Live football broadcasts should be banned. Then the rest of the world would know, how we feel!

Thanks god for Ukraine!

My thoughts exactly.  They took all the fun out of it.  If they are going to say that results cannot be released until everyone has voted, then they should not start counting the vote until everyone has voted.



I agree, but, halas, you'll ever have those f**** exit polls :/
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Simfan34
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« Reply #791 on: October 26, 2014, 10:07:14 PM »

Chris Garman! I know him- sharp guy.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #792 on: October 26, 2014, 10:26:09 PM »

According to analysts, the dollar rate could rise up to 10% tomorrow and Ibovespa will probably be stopped by a circuit breaker (after a 10% loss). Let's wait and see how big the nightmare will be.

Tomorrow I'll try to make my election recap, winners/losers, and a quick projection for 2016 and 2018.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #793 on: October 27, 2014, 02:15:44 AM »



"JULIOOOOOOOOOO !"

Wink

...

Julio, you beat my prediction by 0.01% (!!!)

Still, congrats !

Smiley

Actual result with 100% in:

51.64% Dilma
48.36% Neves

Julio's prediction:


My prediction:

Might as well try a prediction too for this one:

51.8% Dilma (+/- 1% MoE)
48.2% Neves (+/- 1% MoE)

(% of valid votes)

Turnout: 79% (+/- 2% MoE)

But I'm pretty happy with my prediction overall:

Only off by 0.16% in the election result and off by 0.1% in the turnout.

Official turnout was 78.9%

http://divulga.tse.jus.br/oficial/index.html
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #794 on: October 27, 2014, 05:01:00 AM »

According to analysts, the dollar rate could rise up to 10% tomorrow and Ibovespa will probably be stopped by a circuit breaker (after a 10% loss). Let's wait and see how big the nightmare will be.

Tomorrow I'll try to make my election recap, winners/losers, and a quick projection for 2016 and 2018.

Good God! What's Dilma promising that's freaking out investors so much?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #795 on: October 27, 2014, 05:04:50 AM »

According to analysts, the dollar rate could rise up to 10% tomorrow and Ibovespa will probably be stopped by a circuit breaker (after a 10% loss). Let's wait and see how big the nightmare will be.

Tomorrow I'll try to make my election recap, winners/losers, and a quick projection for 2016 and 2018.

Good God! What's Dilma promising that's freaking out investors so much?

They are throwing a fit because their puppet didn't won.
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jaichind
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« Reply #796 on: October 27, 2014, 06:29:58 AM »

According to analysts, the dollar rate could rise up to 10% tomorrow and Ibovespa will probably be stopped by a circuit breaker (after a 10% loss). Let's wait and see how big the nightmare will be.

Tomorrow I'll try to make my election recap, winners/losers, and a quick projection for 2016 and 2018.

Good God! What's Dilma promising that's freaking out investors so much?

It is mostly about BRL and rising inflation.  With stagflation coming to Brazil, the expectation is that Dilma will kick the can down the road and resort to various fiscal and monetary ticks to avoid devaluation and raising interest rates.  Problem with that is that this actually double downs on a policy that led to this situation in the first place and when these tricks exhaust themselves the economic cost will be much greater.  Also given the onging scandals at Petrobas one would expect Dilma to go the populist route to divert attention from these scandals which would make economic adjustment even less likely and the cost greater when they do come.

BRL is now at 2.544 which would make it weakest vis-a-vis USD since 2005 and expected to fall further out to 2.72 by end of the year.  IBOVESPA futures are down 7.2%.

From here what the next focus on would be who will be minister of finance.  A minster of finance that is not from PT and is independent of the political compulsions of Dilma would be seen as positive toward unwinding the current economic situation.
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jaichind
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« Reply #797 on: October 27, 2014, 06:32:29 AM »

With a total of about 54.500.000 votes, Dilma will have about 2.2% less total votes than she had in 2010. Aecio, meanwhile, had just over 51 million votes, a 16.7% increase on total votes compared to Serra 2010. I think the trend we're observing is very positive for the PSDB, they pretty much won ALL the new vote. I'm optimistic about 2018.

Well, with all the blowups in the Dilma administration with respect to economic, fiscal, monetary policies as well as the Petrobas scandal I would expect some non-PT candidate to be in a good spot for 2018.  Of course that does not have to be PSDB but that seems to be a good bet now that it will be PSDB if not Aecio who would be seen in 2018 as the path not taken if the 2014-2018 situation turns out to be poor which is now the expectation.
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Zanas
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« Reply #798 on: October 27, 2014, 07:23:12 AM »

Well, all in all, good. Like Al said, Dilma's certainly not perfect, PT maybe even less so, but hopefully some very poor Brazilians can keep getting a little less poor, as opposed to hugely rich Brazilians getting even more hugely rich. That's always a pleasure.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #799 on: October 27, 2014, 07:36:55 AM »

Well, all in all, good. Like Al said, Dilma's certainly not perfect, PT maybe even less so, but hopefully some very poor Brazilians can keep getting a little less poor, as opposed to hugely rich Brazilians getting even more hugely rich. That's always a pleasure.

No program took more people in Brazil from poverty than FHC's Plano Real, for instance.

BTW, the bloodbath on Ibovespa today is so big that the trading of most companies had to be delayed and put into auction. Petrobras will start trading at -14%.
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