Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Niemeyerite]

"JULIOOOOOOOOOO !"



...

Julio, you beat my prediction by 0.01% (!!!)

Still, congrats !

Thanks, Tender! Your prediction was very good, actually... But, TBH, my official prediction (I made an excel about it) was Dilma 54.54%, so even closer to what happened!

Lula 2018!

[DL]

With a total of about 54.500.000 votes, Dilma will have about 2.2% less total votes than she had in 2010. Aecio, meanwhile, had just over 51 million votes, a 16.7% increase on total votes compared to Serra 2010. I think the trend we're observing is very positive for the PSDB, they pretty much won ALL the new vote. I'm optimistic about 2018.

2018 is FOUR YEARS away - who knows what the world let alone Brazil will look like by then. Also, Dilma as i understand it will not be allowed to run for a 3rd term - so who would be the likely PT candidate in 2018?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Oh, since we're playing far-fetched predictions already...

PAULO MALUF 2018 - THIRD TIME'S A CHARM!

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Seriously, one can't possibly predict 2018 election at this point. Just look how unpredictable this election was.

[Niemeyerite]

Seriously, one can't possibly predict 2018 election at this point. Just look how unpredictable this election was.

That. PSDB had to win in order to get a good night yesterday, and they didn't. Thinking this is good news for the PT opposition is nonsense.

[Hash]

Predicting an election in 4-5 years time in any country is silliness and anybody who says otherwise is a fool, a liar or a domkop. This is even truer in Brazil.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Predicting an election in 4-5 years time in any country is silliness and anybody who says otherwise is a fool, a liar or a domkop. This is even truer in Brazil.

A simple truth for the Simple Truth Mine.

[jaichind]

Are there any links which has the final election results by state ?

[Paleobrazilian]

Are there any links which has the final election results by state ?

http://eleicoes.uol.com.br/2014/raio-x/presidente/#resultado-por-municipios/sp

Here you can see the numbers for each state and the maps of each state and the voting on all cities of Brazil.

[DC Al Fine]

Well, all in all, good. Like Al said, Dilma's certainly not perfect, PT maybe even less so, but hopefully some very poor Brazilians can keep getting a little less poor, as opposed to hugely rich Brazilians getting even more hugely rich. That's always a pleasure.

No program took more people in Brazil from poverty than FHC's Plano Real, for instance.

BTW, the bloodbath on Ibovespa today is so big that the trading of most companies had to be delayed and put into auction. Petrobras will start trading at -14%.

I have to say, I'm glad I'm based in a developed market. I don't have the stomach for emerging market swings.

[Velasco]

Those swings in Bovespa were expected because "the markets" had a clear favourite. I think the medium and long terms are more important issues. To begin with, who is going to be the next minister of Economy and which way things turn on economic policies. Last but not least, Dilma has promised changes urged by the tight result. Will she able to implement a political reform in order to deal with the mess of the Brazilian Congress, which is a corruption nest?

[Velasco]

In the link below (Portuguese), a list of hot issues to deal in the next four years:

http://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2014/10/27/politica/1414420879_686160.html

1) Complicated political reform. 2) Pending agrarian reform. 3) Indigenous issues (land-related conflicts). 4) Need to improve quality in education. 5) Insufficient financing of the public healthcare system. 6) Access to decent housing. 7) Drought is affecting energy production (69% is hydroelectric). 8 ) Violence (Brazil is placed 7th in the world ranking). 9) Overcrowded prisons. 10) Inflation and economic relaunch.

[buritobr]

Lula will be 73 in 2018 and his health is not good.

I think that the PT candidate in 2018 can be the Mayor of São Paulo Fernando Haddad. His approval rate is low now, but he can recover. If he doesn't recover his approval rate, I think that Aloysio Mercadante can be the candidate.

[politicus]

Lula will be 73 in 2018 and his health is not good.

It was a joke.

[Paleobrazilian]

Here goes my recap. I know it's impossible to predict the future, that's far from my human capacities. I'm just trying to read the tea leaves a little bit

1 - Conclusions regarding the national scenario:

a) Dilma won with just over 54.5 million votes, the smallest absolute number of votes for the winner since 2002. Then again, in 2002 Lula won by 22% of the votes, this time Dilma won by 3.3% of them. This was the 1st time ever the PT had to sweat for their win.

I find it very important to look at the trend we have seen from 2002 on:



b) Dilma will have a dangerous Chamber of Representatives in front of her. Her coalition amassed 304 out of the 519 seats in play, a 36 seat loss. She failed to get the 60% supermajority she'd need to pass constitutional amendments (308 seats). That means she'll have to get more parties on board (tough on a chamber with 28 parties with largely different interests) or work with the opposition in order to pass big reforms there. She's in danger because the PMDB wants tight control of the Chamber and there's also a big risk of a rebellion among some of the parties within the coalition (specially the PMDB).

c) While Dilma will still have a large majority on the Senate, the PSDB got some of its most prominent names there, such as José Serra, Antonio Anastasia, Alvaro Dias and Tasso Jereissati. Plus, Aecio Neves will be there. It's believed the PSDB will try to make a lot of noise from the Senate.

2- Conclusions regarding the states:

a) For the PSDB, tightening the grip so tight in São Paulo was definitely a huge win. Keeping Paraná with ease was also important. Goiás was expected and Perillo is also a larger name than he was 12 years ago when he was reelected for the 1st time there. Keeping Pará was a positive surprise, just like claiming Mato Grosso do Sul for the 1st time ever.

b) On the flip side, losing Minas Gerais could be a drag for the future of the PSDB. That will be the most important governorship the PT has ever had, so they must be jubilant with the prospect of running such a big, important and strategic state.

c) The PT or a PT-ally won in 8 out of 9 states of the Northeast. They now control 2 out of 3 most populous states of the region, Bahia and Ceará. The only northeastern state not won by the PT coalition was Pernambuco, due to the local strength of Eduardo Campos/PSB.

d) The PMDB had some painful losses through the country, but can still be happy with their initially unexpected win in Rio Grande do Sul. On the flip side for them, Sartori is part of the rebel side of the PMDB that's closer to the PSDB than to the PT, and the PT will be on the opposition in RS. Keeping Rio de Janeiro was expected by most political analysts, and shows just how strong the party is there.

e) Among smaller parties, I'd highlight the PSD. On their 1st national election, they elected 2 governors, a strong performance from what could easily become the second largest clientelistic party of Brazil, behind the PMDB, of course.

f) The PSB won Pernambuco, as expected, saved Paraíba, and got a bonus on the Federal District. Pernambuco and the Federal District will be important for the party to regroup after the death of Eduardo Campos and it's aftermath.

g) The PMDB, the PT and PSDB together will govern 17 of 27 federal units. Despite everything, those 3 are still the leading forces of Brazil.

3- What is next?

Once again, I don't want to predict the future, I'm just having some fun looking at the tea leaves. Here's what is looming on the immediate future:

a) The economy will be the #1 problem of Dilma. Very slow growth + growing inflation are a dangerous formula, as you know. Will Dilma double down on her developmentalism philosophy or will she make a turn for more liberal, orthodox policies? The market has seemingly lost the patience it had with her and wants her to take a different instance. Lula also wants her to make a move to the center on the economic fundamentals. Much of what happens for the next 4 years will be influenced by the decision of Dilma and whether she made the right or the wrong decision.

b) It's known that Lula wanted to be the candidate this year, but obviously couldn't challenge Dilma. Will he have a prominent place on Dilma's second term? That's anyone's guess. Lula could help her politically, but she would probably feel overshadowed by him. The answer has a lot to do on whether Lula still has electoral ambitions. More on this later.

c) Dilma promised big reforms, specially a sweeping political reform. Can she do that with a problematic Congress and a brewing scandal? There's definitely the risk of a broken promise here, and, in fact, there's a large looming feeling that Dilma will quickly become a lame-duck.

d) Don't rule out the risk of an energy crisis next year. The level of the hydro-electrical reservoirs is getting lower and lower on a scary pace. Water shortage is already a reality on many areas, by the way.

e) Will Dilma try to reconcile with the Center-South areas that voted Aecio heavily, or will she govern for the 51% that voted for her? The anti-PT feeling grew very strongly within the middle class and she'll have to do something to avoid losing it by even bigger margins from 2018 onward.

f) Then there's the Petrobras scandal. The 1st whistleblower has already said all he knows to the feds, and it's believed he said a lot of highly damaging things, and that he proved all he said. It was part of his plea bargain. The second whistleblower is now telling all he knows to the feds as well, and his testimonial has even more damaging potential it's believed. He'll also have to prove what he says under the plea bargain he signed, and it's believed he also has plenty of proof of what he says. It's said that at least 50 politicians with high public offices will be implicated on this scandal. The prospect of both Lula and Dilma being implicated with solid proof against them is real (specially because there's a long, deep federal police/federal attorneys investigation behind it), and the consequences of such a scenario could be explosive (you know what I mean).

g) As for the opposition, the PSDB is now stronger than ever since 2002. That's an undeniable fact. Aecio has reunified his party after his gigantic comeback, and that is an UNDENIABLE WIN for a party that had such a low self steam. There's now a big block of voters that self identify as PSDBists and this could be huge for the future, to bring more people to the party, to strengthen it from the base upward, to get more people on public office (hell, the PSDB had more direct votes for the party on Congressmen races than the PT). The PSDB is now expected to be a sharper, stronger oppositionist party then it was for the last 12 years. Expect strong rhetoric in favor of populist measures as a way to appeal to lower classes, and if the link between Lula/Dilma and Petrobrasgate is proven, expect them to go very strongly after Dilma.

h) After such a polarized runoff, the prospects for a 3rd way in national politics are not particularly high. That will be the hard mission of Marina Silva, who should have her new party fully operational next year.

i) Moves within smaller parties could become relevant. It's believed the DEM will dissolve soon (how the mighty have fallen...), and most of it's members will probably go to the PSDB (specially the brightest ones like ACM Neto and the São Paulo wing of the party). Some of them will move to parties like the PP and the PR, a few to the PMDB (like the conservative Senator-elect Ronaldo Caiado - DEM/GO). Another big movement that's in the cards is the PSB and the PPS merging, to form a strong center-left alternative to the PT and the PSDB (under this scenario, the older, left wing portion of the PSB will definitely leave the party, probably to join the PT). Finally, it's believed that the PSD will try to merge with the smallest parties such as the PTN, the PMN and the PRTB to become stronger. The wish of a smaller number of parties is pretty much common to the PT and the PSDB. The problem is, more 6 parties are about to start operating. One that calls my attention is the NOVO, which will the 1st truly economically liberal party in Brazil, with strong support from leading economists.

[Paleobrazilian]

4 - What about 2016?

2016 will be hugely important for the future of national politics. Since Dilma will be term limited, it'll be very important for both big blocks (PT/PSDB) to gain political capital and momentum with big wins in 2016. Since Dilma will be on the 6th year of her term, and since the possibility of a downturn on the economy and on the political scenario is real, there's a large chance those midterms will be a big referendum on the national government, something that's rare (most municipal elections are usually decided by local questions only, even on the largest cities).

For me, 2 cities will be specially important.

a) São Paulo. After Aecio won the city of São Paulo with 64% of the vote yesterday, it became clearer than ever that Fernando Haddad (PT) is the most endangered incumbent in the whole country. He's an unpopular Mayor in hostile territory for his party. With the growth of the anti-PT wave in São Paulo (that's already huge right now), he'll have to do a lot of his good for the city to compensate for the obvious referendum on the national PT that the PSDB will impose. The PSDB will be salivating to reclaim the city of São Paulo, specially because that would be a huge victory for Alckmin. The PSDB has a HUGE bench of young, potentially appealing names who'll battle it out for the nomination. Among the favorites, I'd list Congressman Bruno Covas (the front-runner right now, already well known with a universally known and approved last name, young, bright background, dynamic speaker and politician, close name to Governor Alckmin), State Congressman Fernando Capez (well known, the best-voted state congressman in the state, solid background as prosecutor, famous Criminal Law professor), Andrea Matarazzo (experienced, close ally of José Serra and FHC), José Aníbal (a veteran of the party, well known, goes along well with both Alckmin and Serra) and Saulo de Castro Abreu (still a unknown, Alckmin's Chief of Staff - obviously a name Alckmin likes a lot). Also, there will be plenty of other names vying for the Mayor office. It's believed Paulo Skaf (PMDB) will be on the fray, and he'd start out strongly. Russomano (PRB) is a lock for this race, he could be even more competitive than in 2012, and his presence will definitely hurt Haddad, as his presence hurts Haddad with his most loyal electorate. All in, this will be a very hardly fought race.

b) Belo Horizonte. It'll be crucial for Aecio Neves to win this race for this party, to show his strength in Minas Gerais is real and to gain coattails for 2018. Marcio Lacerda (PSB) will be term limited so it's a wide open race. Luckily for him, it's speculated that Antonio Anastasia will enter the fray, and if he does, he'd be the immediate favorite. Then again, if Pimentel is doing well in the government of Minas, he could end up electing the Mayor of Belo Horizonte (Patrus Ananias?), delivering a strong punch on Aecio. Just don't bet on Aecio himself running for Mayor. The Senate is a better springboard for his probable 2018 presidential run.

Of course, some other cities will be hotly contested. Rio de Janeiro has a term limited Mayor (Eduardo Paes - PMDB/RJ) that will be leaving just after the Olympics, so expect him to be on the height of his popularity. I think he'll choose someone within his cabinet to succeed him. Opponents could be Marcelo Freixo (PSOL), who'll be popular with the middle class but perhaps not enough for a definitive win. Romário (PSB), meanwhile, would be a highly competitive candidate. In Porto Alegre, term limits will also make the race wide open. Finally, Curitiba and Salvador call my attention due to Mayors from parties/blocks that seem to be completely opposed to local trends. I think Gustavo Fruet (PDT/Curitiba-PR) and ACM Neto (DEM/Salvador-BA) will be endangered.

5- And WHAT ABOUT 2018, OH MY GOD?

As many here said, it's impossible to say what the political environment will be in 4 years. But it would be naive to deny the tea leaves can be read and trends can be anticipated.

a) For the PT, the 1st question is Lula or not Lula? Lula will be 73, so this is probably the last chance he'll have if he wants 2 full terms. If he goes for it, he'd start as the undeniable favorite. I think it'll depend a lot on his health and on the national mood (if there's a significant fatigue towards the PT, he'll stay away from the race).

b) If not Lula, who? I'd say there are 2 strong candidates right now in Jaques Wagner (2 term Governor of Bahia, expected to have a strong cabinet position now) and Fernando Pimentel (who'll now have a chance to make a good government in Minas Gerais). Among the outsiders, Aloizio Mercadante (PT-SP) is an important name, but he's a weak campaigner overall who wouldn't do well even on his state. Mercadante is probably Dilma's favorite (Pimentel close behind), Wagner is extremely well liked by Lula, they're very close friends. Fernando Haddad is an outsider, I think he'll have trouble rebuilding his popularity, but certainly a name that has to be reckoned.

c) For the PSDB, it's Aecio x Alckmin. Aecio is now the prohibitive favorite and the base is already screaming for him to run in 2018. It's known he wants to run again. If he knows how to lead the opposition for the next 4 years, he could well be a formidable candidate. Alckmin also wants to run, on the base of the strength of Aecio's run in São Paulo. It could be a tough battle between them. The fact that FHC is on Aecio's side could be important. If they reach an agreement where Aecio heads the ticket and Alckmin is his running mate, this could REALLY rally the base and give tons of excitement. The fact that Aecio is a well known quantity nationally is also a plus, Aecio claims there's nothing more that the PT will be able to use against him, and if the national mood becomes just a little bit more anti-PT, that will be the ultimate opening for the PSDB.

d) As for third way candidates, there are ton of possibilities. Marina Silva is probable, but I feel she'll be weaker than in 2014. The PMDB could be tempted to (finally) launch a candidate, perhaps the Mayor of Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes. The PDT has Senator Cristovam Buarque (PDT-DF) just waiting. The PSB could look for Governor-elect Rollemberg (PSB-DF).

e) If you're looking for a "truly right wing" candidate, there's a possibility our own tea partier, Congressman Bolsonaro (PP-RJ) will run for President, possibly after a party switch to the PSC. He could well get over 3% of the national vote. From the left, the PSOL will definitely have a candidate, but no one knows who. The Greens could run Eduardo Jorge again, the usual joke candidates will be there again.

f) Of course, if the Petrobras scandal becomes just THAT huge and takes down the Government, you can just imagine how big the turmoil will be. In this case, no prediction whatsoever can be made.

See you all in 2016, guys. It was a fun ride this year.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Interestingly, both candidates lost their respective home states (Dilma Rio Grande do Sul, Aecio Minas Gerais).

[buritobr]

Well, all in all, good. Like Al said, Dilma's certainly not perfect, PT maybe even less so, but hopefully some very poor Brazilians can keep getting a little less poor, as opposed to hugely rich Brazilians getting even more hugely rich. That's always a pleasure.

No program took more people in Brazil from poverty than FHC's Plano Real, for instance.

BTW, the bloodbath on Ibovespa today is so big that the trading of most companies had to be delayed and put into auction. Petrobras will start trading at -14%.

No.

Percentage of people living below the poverty line in Brazil

1993: 42.98%
1995: 35.08%
2002: 34.38%
2008: 22.06%
2012: 15.93%

Plano Real (1994) reduced the poverty rate from 42.98% to 35.08%. The reduction of the poverty from 34% to 16% took place during Lula/Dilma administration

[jaichind]

Actually, until the results were released, PSDBists were VERY confident they had won. Their tracking polls correctly showed the huge wave in São Paulo and in the South. They just expected to do a little better in the Northeast and in Minas.

They were so confident Aecio had won that FHC, Alckmin and Serra rushed to an airplane and flew to Belo Horizonte. 5 minutes before the results were released, many extremely reliable PSDB sources were cautiously celebrating.

I think either PSDB's estimation of Southern states were also inflated, or the made certain assumptions that I am not aware of, or their logic is faulty.  My view is this.  Say what PSDB predicted for the South was accurate, then their logic is faulty.  Lets look at this way.  In the first round it was  Dilma 41.59 and Aecio 33.55.  This means that Dilma most win 33.8% of the 1st round non-Dilma/Aecio vote to win.  If we look at Southern states results and compare them to 1st round results and compute what Dilma capture of the 1st round non-Dilma/Aecio vote, we get the chart below.


             Dilma 1st    Aecio 1st        Dilma 2nd    Aecio 2nd       %of 1st non-Dilma/Aecio
                                                                                                     going to Dilma

DF         23.02         36.01             38.01           61.90                      36.6
SP         25.82         44.22             35.69           64.31                      32.9
RS         43.21         41.42             46.47           53.53                      21.2
SC         30.76         52.89             35.41           64.59                      28.4
RJ          35.62         26.93             54.94           45.06                      51.6
PR          32.54        49.79              39.02           60.98                     36.7
MS         37.51         41.31             43.67           56.33                      29.1
ES          33.12        35.12              46.15           53.84                     41.0
GO         32.10         41.54              42.89           57.11                    40.1

Most of them has Dilma picking up a greater than 33.8% share of the 1st round non-Dilma/Aecio vote if not very close to it.  So if PSDB were confident of victory based on their assessment of the Southern PSDB vote, either they overestimated their support in the South, or they assumed that the Silva voter in the North/Northeast was MORE LIKELY switch over to Aecio relative to the Silva voter of the South, or their logic was faulty.

[buritobr]

Interestingly, both candidates lost their respective home states (Dilma Rio Grande do Sul, Aecio Minas Gerais).

I am not an expert in English, but I think that it is better to say "both candidates lost IN their respective home states" or "both candidates did not have the majority of the votes in their respective home states".

The sentences "candidate won a state" or "candidate lost a state" make sense only in the USA, where the rules are different. In Brazil, where it is necessary only to have more votes than the opponent, the states don't matter. A candidate can win the election in Brazil having a huge majority in a big state and having the minority in all other states.

It is still interesting to watch the state-by-state results in Brazil. But I think that the sentence "candidate won a state" is not accurate here.

[Velasco]

d) Don't rule out the risk of an energy crisis next year. The level of the hydro-electrical reservoirs is getting lower and lower on a scary pace. Water shortage is already a reality on many areas, by the way.

This is serious. Sao Paulo is facing the most severe drought in history and there's no way to guarantee water supply in the biggest Brazilian city. Aécio Neves and Dilma Rousseff blamed each other in the campaign, showing themselves as the mediocre politicians they are. Both fail to see the relation between the lack of rain and intense deforestation, which is cause of climate change. Even Marina Silva, supposedly an environmentalist, tiptoes on the subject. Apparently, Brazilian public doesn't care and their politicians are unwilling to warn Brazilians of the magnitude of the problem.  Alckmin was reelected in a landslide, despite his bad planning in order to face the crisis. Instead of warning citizens of the need of saving water, Alckmin assures that there will not be shortage. Furthermore, it seems that Dilma is committed to build a colossal hydroelectric power plant in the Tapajós river. Deforestation in Amazonas is again on the rise.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Hmm, I understand that some people within PMDB would want to run a presidential candidate, given the reward would be great, but that can be dangerous, given that PMDB has already established themselves as a party of (sucking on the) system and the presidential run could put their position in jeopardy.

[buritobr]

Hmm, I understand that some people within PMDB would want to run a presidential candidate, given the reward would be great, but that can be dangerous, given that PMDB has already established themselves as a party of (sucking on the) system and the presidential run could put their position in jeopardy.

Eduardo Paes could run for president in 2018. He will be shown often in the media in 2016, because of the Olympic Games.

[Paleobrazilian]

Then again, there's the Frank Underwood alternative.

[DC Al Fine]

Hmm, I understand that some people within PMDB would want to run a presidential candidate, given the reward would be great, but that can be dangerous, given that PMDB has already established themselves as a party of (sucking on the) system and the presidential run could put their position in jeopardy.

With that in mind, what sort of person votes PMDB?