Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[jaichind]

The Bovespa exchange fell over 2% when the news came out on Campos' death.  It has mostly recovered.  I wonder Neves will now run?

[jaichind]

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Candidate Marina Silva opened a lead of 10 percentage points in a runoff vote over President Dilma Rousseff after Brazil’s economy dipped into recession, according to a Datafolha poll.
Silva has 50 percent of voter support in an Oct. 26 second round vote against the incumbent, who has 40 percent, according to the Aug. 28-29 poll published last night. The former environment minister had an advantage of four percentage points over Rousseff in the previous survey conducted Aug. 14-15, which fell within the plus or minus two percentage point margin of error of the surveys.
Silva, who entered the race Aug. 20, is capitalizing on voter discontent with a shrinking economy and above-target inflation. Yesterday she pledged to slow consumer price increases by giving the central bank formal autonomy and moderating the pace of fiscal spending. Rousseff says her administration has protected workers with rising salaries and near-record low jobless rates.
“The first two, three weeks of the campaign are critical for Marina,” Christopher Garman, deputy head of research at political consulting company Eurasia Group, said by phone. “Voter preference are still in flux. But in the first week she hit a home run.”
The Ibovespa stock exchange index rose 4.9 percent this week as polls also published by Ibope and MDA showed Silva leading the race in the second round.
First Round
Silva and Rousseff would tie in the first round on Oct. 5 with 34 percent of the vote each, followed by Senator Aecio Neves with 15 percent, according to Datafolha, which surveyed 2,874 people. Brazil holds a runoff if the lead candidate fails to garner more votes than all others put together.
Gross domestic product fell 0.6 percent in the second quarter over the previous three months, after contracting a revised 0.2 percent in the first quarter, according to date released yesterday by the national statistics agency. It’s the first time Brazil’s economy contracted for two straight quarters since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008.
Silva became the candidate for the Brazilian Socialist Party when former Pernambuco Governor Eduardo Campos was killed in an Aug. 13 plane crash.
“Marina is an extremely competitive candidate,” Andre Cesar, director at public policy and business strategy consulting company Prospectiva, said by phone. “It is still too soon to say she is the favorite given there is still a month of campaigning.”
Rousseff’s and Neve’s allies will counter-react to Silva’s surge in polls, Garman said. They will say Silva is a “wild card” that can’t be trusted and is unprepared to lead.

[jaichind]

With 75% of the votes counted Dilma has 40% and Aecio 35%!!!!!

Wow.  With 79% in it is about the same.  Any insight on the nature of the 21% that did not report in yet?  Aecio's momentum last few days is quite impressive.  And just think, he was left for dead just a few weeks ago.

[jaichind]

Most are in the North-Northeast area where the margin should widen a little bit in Dilma's favor. But there's no denying, there was a significant swing from both Dilma and Marina to Aecio. For the 1st time in 12 years, the PSDB actually has a chance of winning the runoff against the PT.

Aecio desperately needs help on the Northeast, though.

In retrospect I think once the polls shows that Dilma would most likely lose in the second round starting a week or two ago, the anti-Dilma vote went over to Aecio.  That Dilma under-performed both polls and exit polls should have PT very concerned.

[jaichind]

Did the exit polls ask hypothetical match-ups between the three front runners in the second round ?

[jaichind]

Brazil's "Bin Laden" arrested for campaigning at polls

Oct. 5 (AFP) -- A candidate running for the Amazonia state assembly in northern Brazil under the monicker Osama Bin Laden was detained during Sunday's vote for illegal campaigning outside the local polls, electoral officials said.
'Bin Laden', real name Manoel Nunes de Assis, was standing for the tiny centrist National Labor Party (PTN).
Clad in a tunic similar to that worn by the Al-Qaeda mastermind killed in a US raid in Pakistan three years ago, Nunes was arrested in regional capital, Manaus, as he urged voters to cast their ballots while handing out bottles of water, and hauled off to the regional electoral court for questioning.
"He was stood in the doorway on the pretext of selling water while approaching people and asking for votes," the G1 web portal quoted electoral magistrate Henrique Veiga as saying.
Electoral rules allow candidates to stand under whatever name they choose and this year has seen an imaginative crop, including Wonder Woman and Rambo, while a handful also stood as Barack Obama.
Nunes, one of three candidates named Bin Laden standing in Sunday's presidential and legislative elections, faces being removed from the race if he is found to have violated election rules.
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) had detained 551 people in all, including 55 candidates, for various indiscretions nationwide an hour before polls closed at 2000 GMT in most of Brazil's 27 states.
In the last national elections four years ago, a Sao Paulo clown named Tiririca (Grumpy) ran for Congress on the campaign slogan "It can't get any worse."
He won the most votes of any congressional candidate in the country, 1.3 million, and had to learn to write his name to start his new job.
He's also standing again.

[jaichind]

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2014/10/1527715-comite-petista-ja-cogita-aceno-de-dilma-a-marina.shtml

Google translate is not that that great.  But from I can gather from this, Rousseff’s PT considers approaching silva

[jaichind]

Carlos Kawall, former secretary of the Treasury now Banco J.safara economist, seems to indicate that Neves has a chance to win on second round with such a first round differential.  

[jaichind]

Looks like the results will be Rousseff 41% Neves 34%

[jaichind]

Runoff prediction time!


Aécio: 50%
Dilma: 46%


BREAKING NEWS

December 31, 2014

(Brasília) President-elect Aécio Neves (PSDB-Minas) suddenly died on eve of his inauguration, after a two-months wild spree of celebrating his election. No official determination was made, but the source close to the PSDB headquarters indicates Aécio's ego exploded, rupturing his inside. Poor man had no chance, the source commented.

Vice President-elect Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-São Paulo) is set to fill Aécio's term instead.

Speaking of his longtime political mentor's passing, Senator Antonio Anastasia recalled: Aécio always wanted to be just like his grandpa.

Should not the vote shares of the two add up to 100% by definition.

[jaichind]

 
                     Dilma       Aécio       Marina      Counted
                     Rousseff    Neves       Silva       votes
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Overall:             41%         34%         21%         98%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Acre                 31%         31%         37%         57%
Alagoas             53%         21%         24%         82%
Amapá               51%         26%         20%         99%
Amazonas          54%         20%         22%         99%
Bahia                61%         18%         19%         92%
Ceará                68%         15%         14%         99%
Espírito Santo     33%         35%         29%         100%
Goiás                32%         42%         24%         100%
Maranhão          69%         12%         17%         99%
Mato Grosso       39%         45%         14%         98%
Mato Grossol      38%         19%         41%         100%
       do Su
Minas Gerais      44%         40%         14%         99%
Pará                  53%         28%         16%         98%
Paraíba              56%         23%         19%         99%
Paraná               33%         50%         14%         100%
Pernambuco       44%         6%          48%         94%
Piauí                  71%         14%         14%         90%
Rio de Janeiro     36%         27%         31%         100%
Rio Grande         61%         20%         17%         91%
     do Norte
Rio Grande        43%         41%         12%         100%
     do Sul
Rondônia            42%         45%         10%         99%
Roraima             34%         44%         18%         87%
Santa Catarina    31%         53%         13%         100%
São Paulo           26%         44%         25%         98%
Sergipe              55%         23%         19%         98%
Tocantins           50%         28%         21%         100%
Exterior             19%         49%         26%         95%
 

[jaichind]

In the end all Silva got was barely better than 2010 and she had the advantage of PSB being behind her.  This feels a lot like the UK Liberal Democrats of 2010. 

[jaichind]

It looks like Neves is already trying to butter up Silva in his speech.

[jaichind]

My understanding was that Rousseff was able to unleash a large media attack on Silva which now it seems to have worked, perhaps too well.  This seems only possible with a large financial advantage of the Rousseff campaign.  I wonder if she can replicate this against Neves.  What is the financial resource gap between Rousseff and Neves ?

[jaichind]

My understanding was that Rousseff was able to unleash a large media attack on Silva which now it seems to have worked, perhaps too well.  This seems only possible with a large financial advantage of the Rousseff campaign.  I wonder if she can replicate this against Neves.  What is the financial resource gap between Rousseff and Neves ?

Aecio actually can fundraise more than Dilma. He's the candidate of the financial market.

Yes.  I know.  But incumbency has to count for something as well in terms of financial resources.  That is why I asked the question. 

[jaichind]

In a bad sign for Rousseff, Silva seems to indicate that the vote is a vote against the the current government. 

[jaichind]

i have to believe that this result is positive for the markets.  IBOVESPA and in fact the entire emerging market sector should do well tomorrow.

[jaichind]

Aecio 46% x Dilma 44% according to Datafolha.

IBOPE has exactly the same numbers.

Praise be to God! The BOVESPA ought to be surging. But it's down 3%- why?

I imagine it is because the market feels that unless Aecio has a large lead, the greater scrutiny he will be put under in the rest of the campaign both from Dilma and the press will only push down his vote and in which case Aecio will most likely then lose.  Also the natural resource rout across the board does not help the Brazilian markets which is very natural resource intensive.

[jaichind]

According to Sensus (a second tier pollster) Aecio is now ahead by a 59% to 41% margin. While I'm still waiting for a IBOPE/Datafolha confirmation, tons of info from the Petrobras scandal started to leak Thursday. This could end up being a huge factor.

I assume you mean what is the Bloomberg story below.  Hope this does not lead to problems in Petrobras.  I own a lot of medium term Petrobas bonds. 


Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Most bribes went to Rousseff’s Workers’ Party, Veja magazine reports in its Oct. 15 issue, citing former director Paulo Roberto Costa’s testimony to police and the attorney general.
Two other parties, PMDB and PP, also received millions since ’06, Veja said, citing an audio recording of Costa’s testimony
Cos. providing services to Petrobras had to pay money that went to congressmen, senators, governors, Veja said
Petrobras directors were appointed by parties knowing they’d have to participate in “bribery mission,” Veja said
Rousseff said yday to reporters in Brasilia that govt isn’t covering up alleged corruption, is allowing investigations to proceed w/out interference
The Veja article contains no comment from the political parties or a spokesman for Rousseff
The Progressive Party told Bloomberg in a text msg it’s willing to cooperate with all investigations; the Workers’ Party, presidential palace, and PMBD all didn’t immediately respond to requests by phone, e-mail and text msg for comment

[jaichind]

According to Sensus (a second tier pollster) Aecio is now ahead by a 59% to 41% margin. While I'm still waiting for a IBOPE/Datafolha confirmation, tons of info from the Petrobras scandal started to leak Thursday. This could end up being a huge factor.

I went back and looked.  It seems the final pre-first round Sensus poll projected President Dilma Rousseff would get 35.9% of total votes in 1st round of Brazil election vs 23.6% for Aecio Neves, 22.6% for Marina Silva.  For second round it had projected Rousseff 43.2% vs 39.2% for Neves.  Now it has Neves 52.4% vs 36.7% for Rousseff which after allocation of undecided led to 58.8 vs 41.2.

[jaichind]

BRL gained 1.4% on the Sensus poll.  One-month implied volatility on options for the BRL, reflecting projected shifts in the currency as the Oct. 26 runoff approaches, increased to 24 percent, the highest in emerging markets.

[jaichind]

“All of the momentum appears to be” with Aecio Neves as Marina Silva endorsed him and Ibope poll showed him ahead of Dilma Rousseff, Capital Economics EM Economist David Rees writes in note to clients.  It’s not clear to what extent Silva’s voters will vote for Neves.  Capital Economics still expects Rousseff to win re-election by a narrow margin

[jaichind]

A gap of 8% from the first round is usually pretty large to try to overcome on the second round.  I cannot think of an example where this took in a two round national election anywhere other than France 1974 where Giscard d'Estaing overcame a 10% deficit on the first round and defeated Mitterrand by a tiny margin.  But there Giscard d'Estaing had the advantage of another center-right rival on the first round that took 15% of the vote and in the second round almost all such votes must have gone to Giscard d'Estaing.   Neves has to hope something similar takes place with Silva despite the fact that it is not clear that all of PSB is for Neves on the second round.

[jaichind]

Goldman Sachs research indicates that Silva can be instrumental in delivering voters to Neves in states of Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, and in Brazil’s Northeast and that Neves is now seen as slight favorite to win.

[jaichind]

My understanding was that Rousseff was able to unleash a large media attack on Silva which now it seems to have worked, perhaps too well.  This seems only possible with a large financial advantage of the Rousseff campaign.  I wonder if she can replicate this against Neves.  What is the financial resource gap between Rousseff and Neves ?

It seems I, by pure luck, did manage to pinpoint what might take place.  What is interesting is where Rousseff and PT get the money for this media barrage especially when Neves is suppose to be the candidate of business and the wealthy?  It almost verifies to some extend the Petrobras allegations against PT or at least implies there might have been a bunch if quid pro quo between PT and powerful/wealthy interests.