Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[buritobr]

Too early but...

Instituto MDA/CNT September 4th 2013

First round

Dilma Roussef 36,4%
Marina Silva 22,4%
Aécio Neves 15,2%
Eduardo Campos 5,2%


Runoff

Dilma Roussef 40,7%
Marina Silva 31,9%

Dilma Roussef 44,0%
Aécio Neves 24,5%

Dilma Roussef 46,7%
Eduardo Campos 16,8%

[buritobr]

New poll today September 26th 2013 Ibope


First round

Dilma Roussef 38%
Marina Silva 16%
Aécio Neves 11%
Eduardo Campos 4%

38% > 16%+11%+4% So, Dilma would win in the first round. Even though, Ibope surveyed some scenarios for a possible runoff election

Dilma Roussef 43%
Marina Silva 26%

Dilma Roussef 45%
Aécio Neves 21%

Dilma Roussef 46%
Eduardo Campos 14%

[buritobr]

1. Aécio Neves was a very popular governor of Minas Gerais. His New Public Management policies were considered best practices by many papers about public management. But being a good state manager doesn´t mean being a good national leader. After the failure of Sarney and Collor as presidents, many Brazilians do not trust in governors as presidents. Governors are considered too local and not national. Among the three most recent elected presidents, Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Dilma Roussef were ministers and Lula was a labor union leader, and then, a party leader. The same can be told about Eduardo Campos, the very popular governor of Pernambuco.

2. Aécio Neves' performance as senator is weak

3. Many people do not like his lifestyle: no family, active nightlife. Two years ago he was caught driving drunk.

4. Even though Neves is an opponent of president Roussef, he was not benefited by the mass protests of June. The protests started as a movement against the rise of the bus fare in the city of São Paulo, ruled by a PT (Roussef's party) mayor, but it spread to other cities, ruled by other parties. Than, they became protests against everything that is going bad in Brazil, and their target became all politicians. Since PSDB (Neves' party) has many state governors, this party became also target of the demonstrators. Specially after the violent reaction of the São Paulo riot police. The state of São Paulo has a PSDB governor. Only Marina Silva, who does not have a party yet, benefited from the protests.

5. São Paulo is the home of PSDB and many PSDB voters from São Paulo prefer a candidate from their state. They would not admit to the survey one year before the election that they would vote for Aécio Neves, even if they would, if they did not have other choice.


Even though, I think that Aécio Neves will have between 30% and 40% of the votes on October 2014. At least 30% of the votes go to anti-left candidates. Besides, since PSDB and its allies have a significant number of seats in the Congress, Aécio Neves will have much more minutes of TV advertising in August/September 2014 than Marina Silva.

[buritobr]

Marina Silva is neither leftist nor rightist. She is like a sailor looking for the direction of the wind.

Her 19% in 2010 included

1. Typical green party voters: middle-upper class social liberal young people who supported environmentalism, gay marriage, abortion, legalization of marijuana
2. Evangelic conservatives who opposed gay marriage, abortion and legalization of marijuana
3. People who approved Lula administration, disapproved the conservatism of José Serra campaign, but disapproved the corruption scandals in which PT leaders were involved in 2005 and  did not trust in Dilma Roussef after a scandal was found in her ministry 20 days before the election (and the media increased the relevance of this scandal)

Due to the contradictions inside her supporting base, I don't believe she could win more than 50% of the votes. I think she would have fewer than 19% in 2014. I compare Marina Silva with Ross Perot.


Having Marina Silva as a vice make Eduardo Campos stronger. The probability of him defeating Dilma Roussef in the runoff is higher than the probability of Aécio Neves doing this.

[buritobr]

Playing with mathematics, I calculated some scenarios of a runoff between Dilma Roussef and Eduardo Campos.

In all scenarios, I considered that everyone who voted for José Serra in 2010 will vote for Eduardo Campos in 2014. I considered possibilities of transfer of votes from Dilma Roussef to Eduardo Campos.

In 2010, Dilma Roussef defeated José Serra by 56-44

Scenario 1
In Pernambuco where Roussef defeated Serra by 75,7-24,3, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
No modification in other states
Roussef defeats Campos by 54,5-45,6

Scenario 2
In Pernambuco, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
In the other 8 Northeastern states, Campos steals 10% of Roussef's votes
Roussef defeats Campos by 52,9-47,1

Scenario 3
Considering that in the states where Marina Silva was strong, her transfer of votes to the opponent of Roussef will be 75% instead of only a little bit more than 50%
In Pernambuco, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
In the other 8 Northeastern states, Campos steals 10% of Roussef's votes
In Distrito Federal, where Marina Silva had 42% in the first round, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
In Rio de Janeiro, where Marina Silva had 31,5% in the first round, Roussef defeats Campos by 51,6-48,4, instead of 60-40 in 2010
Roussef defeats Campos by 52,0-48,0

Scenario 4
In Pernambuco, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
In the other 8 Northeastern states, Campos steals 10% of Roussef's votes
In Distrito Federal, where Marina Silva had 42% in the first round, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
In Rio de Janeiro, where Marina Silva had 31,5% in the first round, Roussef defeats Campos by 51,6-48,4, instead of 60-40 in 2010
In Minas Gerais, the candidates tie instead of Roussef win 58-42, as it happened in 2010
Roussef defeats Campos by 51,1-48,9

[buritobr]

Datafolha October 12, 2013

Now, when Marina Silva joined PSB, she and Eduardo Campos may not run both. It is one or the other.


Scenario 1 (most feasible)
Dilma Roussef (PT) 42%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 21%
Eduardo Campos (PSB) 15%

Scenario 2
Dilma Roussef (PT) 39%
Marina Silva (PSB) 29%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 17%

Scenario 3
Dilma Roussef (PT) 40%
José Serra (PSDB) 25%
Eduardo Campos (PSB) 15%

Scenario 4
Dilma Roussef (PT) 37%
Marina Silva (PSB) 28%
José Serra (PSDB) 20%


Runoff

Dilma Roussef 47%
Marina Silva 41%

Dilma Roussef 54%
Aécio Neves 31%

Dilma Roussef 51%
José Serra 33%

Dilma Roussef 54%
Eduardo Campos 28%

[buritobr]

I though that Eduardo Campos could not be understimated because in 2010, both Eduardo Campos and Dilma Roussef were elected by wide margins in Pernambuco, but Eduardo had 80% and Dilma had 60% in the first round. In 2006, PT was not in the Eduardo's coalition for governor of Pernambuco. The PT candidate was the third and Eduardo was elected for the first time. I though that 2014 would be the opposite of 1989 in Pernambuco. In 1989, Lula had a slight majority (51-49) in that state. Lula won the Metropolitan Region of Recife and the coast (zona da mata), and Collor won the countryside (agreste and sertão). I though that in 2014, Dilma would win the countryside and Eduardo would win the metropolitan region and the coast.

But I made my prospects before Datafolha poll. You can see the complete data here http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2013/10/14/intencao-de-voto-presidente.pdf

There is no data for state, only for region, but we can see that according to this pool, in a runoff Dilma vs. Eduardo, Dilma wins against Eduardo by 54-28 in the whole country and by 61-28 in the Northeast.
All the opposition candidates - Aécio Neves, José Serra, Eduardo Campos and Marina Silva - have a growth potential because in this poll, many of the interviewed people that are right-wing, PSDB and disapprove Dilma's administration answered that they will not vote (branco/nulo/nenhum) although we know that in the day of the election they will vote for one of them.
However, even if in the election day all the voters that did not decide yet vote for the opposition, Dilma would win 61-39 in the Northeast.

[buritobr]

Datafolha November 29th, 2013


Scenario 1
Dilma Roussef (PT) 47%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 19%
Eduardo Campos (PSB) 11%

Scenario 2
Dilma Roussef (PT) 42%
Marina Silva (PSB) 26%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 15%

Scenario 3
Dilma Roussef (PT) 45%
José Serra (PSDB) 22%
Eduardo Campos (PSB) 11%

Scenario 4
Dilma Roussef (PT) 41%
Marina Silva (PSB) 24%
José Serra (PSDB) 19%

In the most probable scenario (scenario 1), Dilma increased 5 points and Aécio decreased 2 points from October 11th

Observation: this poll was conducted after two weeks of large media coverage of the arrest of two important members of the Workers Party (PT) because of the congressmen vote buying scandal from 2005.

[buritobr]

Newspaper Folha de S. Paulo released today a survey about the opinion of the Brazilians on economic and social issues, in order to evaluate if they are more left-wing or right-wing

Economic Issues

Economic Growth
67% Government is the most responsible for investment
24% Private firms are the most responsible for investiment

Role of the government
58% Government should prevent abuses commited by firms
31% Government should not interfere

Firms
57% Government should help national firms which have risk to become bankrupt
34% Government should not help these firms

Labor legislation
54% Labor legislation more protects workers than harms firms
34% Labor legislation more harm firms than protects workers

Social policies
47% Their lives will improve the more they receive government benefits
47% The fewer they depend on the government, the better will be their lives

Taxes
43% It is better to pay more taxes and receive free education and health
49% It is better to pay fewer taxes and pay for private education and health services


Social issues

Religion
12% Trusting in god doesn't make someone a better person
87% Trusting in god makes someone a better person

Drugs
15% Should be legalized
83% Should not be legalized

Teenagers
26% Criminal teenagers should not be punished as if they were adults
72% Criminal teenagers should be punished as if they were adults

Death penalty
49% Oppose
47% Support

Unions
49% Are important to support the workers
45% Are used by politicians

Poverty
65% There is poverty because of the lack of equal opportunities
32% There is poverty because poor people are lazy

Weapons
68% Should be forbidden because they are a threat
30% Should be permitted because the individuals have right to defend themselves

Immigration
67% Good for economic and cultural development
25% Creates many problems

Homossexuality
67% Should be accepted
25% Should not be accepted


So, it is possible to observe that most of the Brazilians are centrist, a little closer to the left on economic issues and a little closer to the right on social issues.

Considering the average of the answers
10% of the Brazilians are on the left
31% of the Brazilians are on the center-left
20% of the Brazilians are on the center
29% of the Brazilians are on the center-right
10% of the Brazilians are on the right

Among the Brazilians on the right
37% pretend to vote for Dilma Roussef
22% pretend to vote for Aécio Neves
8% pretend to vote for Eduardo Campos

Among the Brazilians on the left
54% pretend to vote for Dilma Roussef
16% pretend to vote for Aécio Neves
13% pretend to vote for Eduardo Campos

[buritobr]

Datafolha February 20th, 2014

First round

Dilma Roussef 47%
Aécio Neves 17%
Eduardo Campos 12%


Runoff

Dilma Roussef 54%
Aécio Neves 27%

Dilma Roussef 55%
Eduardo Campos 23%


Views on Dilma Roussef administration

41% Good/Very good
37% Regular
21% Bad/Very bad

[buritobr]

PSOL candidate will be Randolfe. He is not much known as Heloísa Helena or Plínio de Arruda Sampaio. Even the left doesn't like him very much.
He is mentioned by less than 1% in the polls.

However, I think that there will be runoff because Dilma is close to her ceiling. She has more votes than approval rate.

[buritobr]

Datafolha April 3th

Dilma Roussef 38%
Aécio Neves 16%
Eduardo Campos 10%
Pastor Everaldo 2%
Others 4%
None 20%
Don't know 9%

Runoff

Dilma Roussef 51%
Aécio Neves 31%

Dilma Roussef 50%
Eduardo Campos 27%


Dilma Roussef Job Rating

Good/Very good 36%
Regular 39%
Bad/Very bad 25%

[buritobr]

One important thing to have in mind: Brazil has NO political debate. There's virtually no right-wing here, except maybe for fringe grass-roots movements which rely heavily upon the web.

To make things worse, the "slightly less to the left left-wing" coalition has very little chance of winning, and thats despite 12 consecutive years of a far-left Bolivarian aligned government which is leading us to a huge crisis. Thats 3 presidential terms people.

And they do not lack chances of winning only for being absolutely amateurish. They essentially are no different from the Workers Party (PT) ideologically, and they actually depend upon the PT to keep the little power they still have.

Contrarily to what most people think, our military government, which lasted 21 years from 1964 to 1985, did very little against the so-called "moderate" left. Newspapers like Pasquim were absolutely free to circulate. Never had the left-wing book industry profited so much. The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities. Our current president, Dilma Roussef, was one of those. However, there was also another group heavily prosecuted by the Military Junta. Our Right-Wing. The same Right-Wing which trusted upon the Military for the counter-revolution in 1964, and which saw 3 years ago that things were taking a rather nasty path, is the very same right wing which was ostracised when they realised that the military government did in fact intend to remain in power. Carlos Lacerda, our main conservative leader by then, was a guest at Bill Buckley's firing line, where he explained it all.

The result? We emerged from the regime without an organised Right-Wing. Since then, every single political party here has proudly identified as left-wing over fears of being ridiculed by the media, which very certainly associated the military government with Right-Wing. Trust me, they did it. In 2007, still in HS, I was vocal at defending traditionally right-wing positions, which are actually quite different from the ones the military junta defended. For that, I was frequently called fascist, nazi, friend of the "milicos". If Jonah Goldberg had reasons to write Liberal Fascism in the USA, I'm pretty sure he could write a neverending book on the issue in Brazil.

Today it is essentially a crime to be a right-winger, though things have been changing over the last 6 or 5 years, largely due to a work started by Olavo de Carvalho, a philosopher, Brazilian, currently living in Virginia.

This guy is not serious

Many brazilians who did not participate in the "guerrilha" and engaged in a peaceful resistance against the military regime were killed

Édson Luís and some other students were killed by the riot police in 1968
Rubens Paiva, a famous left-wing polician, was disappeared in 1971
Wladmir Herzog, a journalist, was tortured and killed in 1975
Manuel Fiel Filho, a steelworker, was tortured and killed in 1975, only because he was suspicious of being a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Pedro Pomar was killed in 1976 because he was a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Many natives were killed during the construction of a highway in the middle of the Amazon Forest
A bomb letter, sent by far-right terrorists, supporters of the regime, killed three members of the Association of Brazilian Lawyers in 1980

And many other journalists and political activies were arrested and tortured, many artists and academic had to live abroad


So, the sentence "The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities." is completely false.

Besides, most of the activities of the guerrilha groups that opposed the military regime cannot be defined as "terrorism". Their target were policemen, soldiers, foreign diplomats and banks. The civilian population was not target of these groups.

[buritobr]

One important thing to have in mind: Brazil has NO political debate. There's virtually no right-wing here, except maybe for fringe grass-roots movements which rely heavily upon the web.

To make things worse, the "slightly less to the left left-wing" coalition has very little chance of winning, and thats despite 12 consecutive years of a far-left Bolivarian aligned government which is leading us to a huge crisis. Thats 3 presidential terms people.

And they do not lack chances of winning only for being absolutely amateurish. They essentially are no different from the Workers Party (PT) ideologically, and they actually depend upon the PT to keep the little power they still have.

Contrarily to what most people think, our military government, which lasted 21 years from 1964 to 1985, did very little against the so-called "moderate" left. Newspapers like Pasquim were absolutely free to circulate. Never had the left-wing book industry profited so much. The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities. Our current president, Dilma Roussef, was one of those. However, there was also another group heavily prosecuted by the Military Junta. Our Right-Wing. The same Right-Wing which trusted upon the Military for the counter-revolution in 1964, and which saw 3 years ago that things were taking a rather nasty path, is the very same right wing which was ostracised when they realised that the military government did in fact intend to remain in power. Carlos Lacerda, our main conservative leader by then, was a guest at Bill Buckley's firing line, where he explained it all.

The result? We emerged from the regime without an organised Right-Wing. Since then, every single political party here has proudly identified as left-wing over fears of being ridiculed by the media, which very certainly associated the military government with Right-Wing. Trust me, they did it. In 2007, still in HS, I was vocal at defending traditionally right-wing positions, which are actually quite different from the ones the military junta defended. For that, I was frequently called fascist, nazi, friend of the "milicos". If Jonah Goldberg had reasons to write Liberal Fascism in the USA, I'm pretty sure he could write a neverending book on the issue in Brazil.

Today it is essentially a crime to be a right-winger, though things have been changing over the last 6 or 5 years, largely due to a work started by Olavo de Carvalho, a philosopher, Brazilian, currently living in Virginia.

This guy is not serious

Many brazilians who did not participate in the "guerrilha" and engaged in a peaceful resistance against the military regime were killed

Édson Luís and some other students were killed by the riot police in 1968
Rubens Paiva, a famous left-wing polician, was disappeared in 1971
Wladmir Herzog, a journalist, was tortured and killed in 1975
Manuel Fiel Filho, a steelworker, was tortured and killed in 1975, only because he was suspicious of being a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Pedro Pomar was killed in 1976 because he was a member of the Brazilian Communist Party
Many natives were killed during the construction of a highway in the middle of the Amazon Forest
A bomb letter, sent by far-right terrorists, supporters of the regime, killed three members of the Association of Brazilian Lawyers in 1980

And many other journalists and political activies were arrested and tortured, many artists and academic had to live abroad


So, the sentence "The only leftists they truly prosecuted were the ones engaged on terrorist activities." is completely false.

Besides, most of the activities of the guerrilha groups that opposed the military regime cannot be defined as "terrorism". Their target were policemen, soldiers, foreign diplomats and banks. The civilian population was not target of these groups.

Negligible numbers of innocent people were prosecuted by the military government government, thats true. On that time, on the other hand, the homicide rate was much lower. There was law and order, and no gun control. Point is: whilst a very few people were possibly prosecuted by the military government, the Pasquim was sold everywhere and other left-wing publications were free to circulate. Even censorship wasn't that horrible: except for news pertaining to guerrilha related activities, censorship was negligible.

And you are the one joking here. Targeting banks is not terrorism? Killing innocent people on these attacks is not terrorism? Attacking ambassadors is not terrorism? By this hilarious definition of terrorism, the plane which hit the Pentagon wasn't engaged on terrorist activities. The attack upon the American Embassy in Iran in 1979, also, wasn't a terrorist act.

I find it very interesting to read from a conservative Brazilian. This can be a fertile ground for debate and show another perspective. Could you give us a brief overview of how the brazilian conservatives and right wingers are organized? Which parties do they prefer and vote for, are there regional strong holds and why - from your point of view - they are so marginalized? And could compare your nations situation with for example Chile, Argentina or Paraguay? I look forward to your point of view.

Since I'm relatively new to this forum, it is not to me to express myself to strongly about the forum rules, but I think we should not be to narrow minded and politically correct here. Having said all that, I bow my head, of course, before the leader of the forum.

The right-wing party that backed the military regime was splited into two parties in 1985: the Progressive Party (PP) and the Liberal Front (PFL). Both are very small parties now. They are members of the old right, supported by rural oligarchs and old military officers.

The new right, composed by business associations and mass media, is not very well represented by the Brazilian party system, but they prefer the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB). This party was founded by moderate opponents of the military regime, who were center-left when they were young and became centrist or center-right when they became older. Despite the name, PSDB is not a social democratic party. One of the founders, Franco Montoro, admitted that he was a christian democrat and not a social democrat.

PSDB is the party of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, president of Brazil between 1995 and 2002. Cardoso built a coalition between PSDB and PFL. Although he was a leftist academic in the 1960s, his admistration implemented free-market policies, like privatization and de-regulation.

Nowadays, young supporters of free-market policies join PSDB, although this party was considered a center-left party in its early days. They dislike the parties of the military regime (PP and PFL) because the military regime implemented a state-led capitalist development model.

There are many conservatives that do not feel represented by any party. They dislike the Brazilian party system and rely on conservative think thanks like "Instituto Millenium" and on Internet propaganda. They are very active in online discussion foruns and in the comments pages of the News websites.

The conservatives don't need to be strong opponents of Dilma Roussef administration, because they are well represented in this administration. Dilma's Workers Party (PT) and the Communist Party (PCdoB) are minority in the Congress. She needs support of conservative parties. That's why they have some ministries.

In the average, the Brazilians are more conservative than Americans and much more conservative than Europeans in social, religious, cultural and moral issues. And they are more progressive than Americans in economic issues. Social, religious, cultural and moral issues do not have big influence in the elections. That's why most of the Brazilian poor people are social conservative and voted for Lula and Dilma. Her administration will not try to legalize abortion. PT is one of the few left-wing parties in the world that does not have a consensus supporting abortion legalization. There are pro-life and pro-choice members in the party.

Although most of the Brazilians are more inclined to the left in economic issues, there is an importante school of economics supporting small government in the Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Most of the mass media support "small government" and free market. Most of its readers belong to the top rich 20% of the population.

[buritobr]

After a month of very bad news for Dilma Roussef


7th and 8th May

Dilma Roussef 37%
Aécio Neves 20%
Eduardo Campos 11%
Pastor Everaldo 3%
Randolfe Rodrigues 1%
Others 3%


Runoff

Dilma Roussef 47%
Aécio Neves 36%

Dilma Roussef 49%
Eduardo Campos 32%

[buritobr]

Sure. That's why I told that the Workers Party is one of the few left-wing parties which do not support abortion legalization as a party (there are some politicians in the party who support, but there is no party statement concerning this issue).
But it is not the only one. Some other left-wing parties in Latin America do not support abortion legalization.

But there are others which support. Pepe Mujica legalized abortion in Uruguay. The PRD legalized abortion in México City.

[buritobr]

Datafolha, 3th-5th June

First Round

Dilma Roussef 34%
Aécio Neves 19%
Eduardo Campos 7%
Pastor Everaldo 4%

Other 5%

None 17%
Don't know 13%


Runoff

Dilma Roussef 46%
Aécio Neves 38%

Dilma Roussef 47%
Eduardo Campos 32%


Dilma Job Aproval

Good/Very Good 33%
Regular 38%
Bad/Very Bad 28%


This is the last poll before the World Cup, which will take place between June 12th and July 13th. Problably, these numbers will not change in the next 40 days, because the country will be more focused on the World Cup. Only after July 13th, the campaign will really start.
But if protests during the World Cup become violent, Dilma will be harmed. Ironically, protests organized by the far-left can help the center-right opponent in the campaign against the center-left incumbent.

[buritobr]

I am sure that there will be runoff. Dilma's approval rate is much bellow 50%. It is very hard for someone who consider her administration "regular" vote for her in the first round.

[buritobr]

The national conventions of the parties took place in June. Today, it was the deadline for the parties to subscribe their candidates in the electoral justice. So, the candidates are officially defined. There are 11 candidates:

Dilma Roussef
Minister during Lula administration (2003-2010), president since 2011 looking for reelection
Party: PT (Workers Party)
Ideology: Center left
Vice: Michel Temer, not a member of PT but of PMDB, a centrist party backing Dilma
Last polls: Between 34% and 39%

Aécio Neves
Grandson of Tancredo Neves, first civilian president electer after the military dictatorship who died before the innauguration, governor of the state of Minas Gerais (2003-2010) and now, senator of this state
Party: PSDB (Brazilian Social Democratic Party)
Ideology: Center right, New Public Management (don't consider the name of the party)
Vice: Aloysio Nunes, senator of the state of São Paulo. Like Dilma Roussef, participated in the left-wing guerrilha against the military dictatorship, but unlike Dilma, became a conservative after getting old
Last polls: Between 19% and 20%

Eduardo Campos
Minister of Science and Technology during Lula administration (2004-2005), governor of the state of Pernambuco (2007-2014)
Party: PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party)
Ideology: Center (don't consider the name of the party)
Vice: Marina Silva, Minister of Environment during Lula administration (2003-2008), Green Party candidate in 2010, had 19% of the vote
Last polls: 11%

Pastor Everaldo
Party: PSC (Christian Social Party)
Ideology: Evangelical Right
Last polls: 3%

Eduardo Jorge
Party: PV (Green Party)
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

Luciana Genro
Party: PSOL (Party of Socialism and Freedom)
Ideology: left, the party was founded by former PT members who consider that PT became too centrist
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

Zé Maria
Party: PSTU (Unified Workers Socialist Party)
Ideology: far left, trotskyism
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

Mauro Iasi
Party: PCB (Brazilian Communist Party)
Ideology: far left. This is a small communist party. The bigger one, the Communist Party from Brazil (PCdoB), which is another party, is backing Dilma Roussef
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

Levy Fidelix
Party: PRTB
Ideology: Right
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

José Maria Eymael
Party: PSDC (Social Democratic Christian Party)
Ideology: Right
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%

Rui Costa Pimenta
Party: PCO (Party of the Labor Cause)
Ideology: far left, trotskyism
Last polls: Between 0% and 1%


The campaign may start tomorrow. However, the campaign will not be important before July 13th, the day of the final of the World Cup. After that, the campaign will receive full atention.

The first round will take place in October 5th. There is no doubt that Dilma Roussef and Aécio Neves will go to the runoff, which will take place in October 26th. The other candidates have no chances. Probably, most of the Eduardo Campos and Pastor Everaldo voters will vote for Aécio Neves in the second round. However, the polls show an advantage for Dilma Roussef in the first round, and these aditional votes for Aécio might be not enough.

[buritobr]

Aécio Neves
Grandson of Tancredo Neves, first civilian president electer after the military dictatorship who died before the innauguration

I believe Neves died over a month after his set inauguration, but, due to illness, was not able to take an oath, resulting in Sarney becoming Acting President upon being sworn-in as Vice President. Nevertheless, Neves is officially counted as 30th President of Brazil out of courtesy. Some sources lists his term as from March 15 to April 21, 1985, when he was incapacitated, though most lists him as unable to assume office, even formally.

Sure

The innauguration of Tancredo Neves was scheduled to March 15, 1985. He became sick and had to go to the hospital on March 14. And then, he never assumed office. He died on April 21. Vice presidente Sarney assumed office as a provisory president on March 15 and became the definitive president on April 21.
The constitution was ignored. Since the elected president did not assume office, the elected vice president could not have assumed as the president, because the vice could not substitute someone that has never been the president. If the constitution were respected, the president of the Chamber of Deputies should have become the provisory president on March 15.


I should have written
Grandson of Tancredo Neves, first civilian president electer after the military dictatorship who died before the innauguration that never happened

It would have explained better

[buritobr]

I like that. "The constitution was ignored".

Well, yesterday's débâcle did not help Dilma.

Considering the last four presidential elections, there was no correlation between the result of the Brazilian National Team in the World Cup and the result of the election... ops, there was a clear correlation, in the opposite way.

In 1998, Brazil lost to France, 3-0, and presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso was re-elected. In 2002, Brazil won the World Cup and Lula, who was na oponent of Cardoso, was elected. In 2006, Brazil lost in the quarterfinal to France, and Lula was re-elected. In 2010, Brazil lost in the quarterfinal to Netherlands, and Dilma, backed by Lula, was elected.

The situation now is diferent, because conceding 7 goals at home became a national catastrophe. There was a big cricticism concerning hosting the World Cup, because 5 billion dollars were spent through state-owned bank loans in the 12 stadiums, including 4 located in cities that do not have Strong soccer teams, and so, these stadiums will not become profitable. There were also big concerns about security and the quality of the public transportation to the stadiums. None of the expected big problems occured during the event, and so, the public opinion became more optimistic about the benefits of hosting the World Cup. But maybe, after the defeat in the game against Germany, many Brazilians might pay more attention in the criticism concerning the organization of the World Cup.

The major incident that happened during the event was the fall of a bridge near Mineirão Stadium, in Belo Horizonte, where the game took place. This incident happened four days before the game. Belo Horizonte is the hometown of both Dilma Roussef and Aécio Neves. The mayor of Belo Horizonte, who was in charge of building that bridge, is a political ally of Aécio Neves. The incident will probably not affect the election.

[buritobr]

Also Aecio has declared that Sen. Aloysio Nunes (PSB-SP) will be his running mate. I know he ran with PSDB support last time, but what effect might this have? Sao Paulo is the PSDB's home base- Aecio is the first candidate not to come from there, yes?

No effect. São Paulo state is the home of PT and PSDB and has the lowest elasticity. There is a safe 30% for-PT and 45% anti-PT, and the remaining 25% are influenced by other issues than the home state of the candidate. The results of the last elections show that the "paulistas" do not care if a favorite son is running or not. In 1989, the PT candidate was Lula, from São Paulo, and the anti-PT candidate, Collor, (not PSDB yet) was not from São Paulo. In the runoff, Collor won in São Paulo 58:42. In 2010, the PT candidate was Dilma, not from São Paulo, and the anti-PT candidate, Serra, PSDB, was from São Paulo. Serra won in São Paulo 54:46, he had a smaller margin than Collor had.
Yes, Aécio is the first PSDB candidate whose home state is not São Paulo. Maybe, he chose Aloysio Nunes as his running mate in order to keep Peace with the PSDB leaders from São Paulo, the strongest ones. But I guess Aécio will win in São Paulo 55:45 no matter the running mate.

[buritobr]

The numbers of this poll

Runoff scenario

All
Dilma 44%, Aécio 40%

Gender
Male: Dilma 46%, Aécio 40%
Female: Dilma 42%, Aécio 41%

Age
16-24: Dilma 39%, Aécio 46%
25-34: Dilma 42%, Aécio 40%
35-44: Dilma 44%, Aécio 39%
45-59: Dilma 46%, Aécio 39%
60-: Dilma 48%, Aécio 36%

Education Level
Elementary: Dilma 54%, Aécio 31%
High School: Dilma 40%, Aécio 45%
College: Dilma 32%, Aécio 51%

Household Income
Less than 2 minimum wages: Dilma 52%, Aécio 33%
Between 2 and 5 minimum wages: Dilma 41%, Aécio 43%
Between 5 and 10 minimum wages: Dilma 31%, Aécio 56%
More than 10 minimum wages: Dilma 34%, Aécio 53%

Region
Southeast: Dilma 34%, Aécio 49%
South: Dilma 41%, Aécio 37%
Northeast: Dilma 60%, Aécio 28%
Center-West: Dilma 40%, Aécio 48%
North: Dilma 53%, Aécio 35%

Most important states (both located in the Southeast)
São Paulo: Dilma 31%, Aécio 50%
Rio de Janeiro: Dilma 42%, Aécio 39%

Location
Metropolitan Area: Dilma 41%, Aécio 42%
Countryside: Dilma 46%, Aécio 39%

City size
Less than 50k inhabitants: Dilma 50%, Aécio 37%
Between 50k and 200k inhabitants: Dilma 47%, Aécio 39%
Between 200k and 500k inhabitants: Dilma 40%, Aécio 44%
More than 500k inhabitants: Dilma 37%, Aécio 43%

Party identification
PT: Dilma 80%, Aécio 16%
PSDB: Dilma 13%, Aécio 81%
None: Dilma 39%, Aécio 41%

View on Dilma Administration
Good/Very good: Dilma 86%, Aécio 9%
Regular: Dilma 40%, Aécio 43%
Bad/Very bad: Dilma 4%, Aécio 73%

Vote in the first round
Eduardo Campos: Dilma 26%, Aécio 55%
Pastor Everaldo: Dilma 27%, Aécio 59%

Religion
Catholic: Dilma 46%, Aécio 39%
Petencostal Evangelic: Dilma 42%, Aécio 41%
Non-petencostal Evangelic: Dilma 38%, Aécio 48%
Kardecist: Dilma 29%, Aécio 45%
African Religions: Dilma 52%, Aécio 41%
No religion: Dilma 45%, Aécio 35%

Race
White: Dilma 39%, Aécio 44%
"Pardo" (half white, half black): Dilma 46%, Aécio 39%
Black: Dilma 50%, Aécio 34%
Asian: Dilma 40%, Aécio 51%
Native: Dilma 53%, Aécio 37%

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Kardecist?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiritism

3% of the Brazilian population is spiritualist (or Kardecist)

[buritobr]

Kardecist?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiritism

3% of the Brazilian population is spiritualist (or Kardecist)

That's pretty crazy.

Why is it crazier than believing there is a God ?

No contradiction. Many spiritualists in Brazil are Christians at the same time. They believe there is a God, they believe that Jesus Christ is the son of God, they pray, and they believe in reincarnation.