Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 (user search)
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  Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014  (Read 124868 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: July 18, 2014, 12:40:55 PM »
Dilma's lead down to 4 points in a run-off scenario:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2014, 05:54:20 AM »
RIP Campos.

...

A Rousseff vs. Silva runoff would be great.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2014, 07:48:39 AM »
Wait, what ?

Last time I checked (which was a month or 2 ago) Silva was easily making the run-off and was even tied with Rousseff.

And now she's even struggling to come in 2nd ?

What the hell happened ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2014, 02:23:51 AM »
Looks like Dilma will face a tough runoff ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2014, 03:11:38 AM »
Quote from: MaxQue on October 06, 2014, 02:43:52 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 06, 2014, 02:23:51 AM
Looks like Dilma will face a tough runoff ...

Not so sure. It seems than most voters swinging between and Silva and Neves finally picked Neves. The remaining Silva voters are more likely to prefer Dilma to Neves.

Yepp, but runoffs are often crazy.

I predict something like a 52-48 Dilma win, instead of a 60-40 win a few weeks ago.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2014, 07:41:29 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2014, 10:57:21 AM by Tender Branson »

For once, I agree with you ... Wink

I have said right after the 1st round that she's in trouble.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2014, 12:12:04 PM »
Might as well try a prediction too for this one:

51.8% Dilma (+/- 1% MoE)
48.2% Neves (+/- 1% MoE)

(% of valid votes)

Turnout: 79% (+/- 2% MoE)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2014, 02:15:44 AM »


"JULIOOOOOOOOOO !"

Wink

...

Julio, you beat my prediction by 0.01% (!!!)

Still, congrats !

Smiley

Actual result with 100% in:

51.64% Dilma
48.36% Neves

Julio's prediction:


My prediction:

Quote from: Tender Branson on October 26, 2014, 12:12:04 PM
Might as well try a prediction too for this one:

51.8% Dilma (+/- 1% MoE)
48.2% Neves (+/- 1% MoE)

(% of valid votes)

Turnout: 79% (+/- 2% MoE)

But I'm pretty happy with my prediction overall:

Only off by 0.16% in the election result and off by 0.1% in the turnout.

Official turnout was 78.9%

http://divulga.tse.jus.br/oficial/index.html
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