Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

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The only President who avoided a runoff (twice) was Cardoso, but he was mighty lucky. In 1994 he got basically elected on Itamar's back (who left office with highest approvals any President enjoyed before Lula). In 1998 he was able to secure wide machine support by back-scene manipulation, including convincing the PDMB to deny their nomination to now really pissed off Itamar (the only one who would have a chance to beat him).

AFAIK runoff was not an option before 1990. For example, Kubitschek got elected in 1955 with less than 40%

In Brazil's History is very uncommon a president that fails to get reelected

AFAIK it's not only uncommon, it never happened.

Well, since until 1998 Presidents were unable to run for reelection, that's hardly surprising. There were two running after a break (Alves and Vargas), but these are hardly encouraging examples, the former died before taking office and the latter shot himself, lol.

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I've heard some folks in the PMDB wants former President Jose Sarney (1985-1990) to run. That would be hilarious, considering his age (will be 84 in 2014) and reputation of a corrupt oligarch.

On the other hand, Brazil is a land of comebacks. Lula got elected after three failed campaigns. Vargas was voted to office five years after being deposed. Fernando Collor resurfaced again. Even freaking Paulo Maluf is still around. And Itamar attempted to run in 1998, 2006 and 2010.

Hell, the reanimated corpse of Tancredo Neves declaring would not surprise me

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I've heard some folks in the PMDB wants former President Jose Sarney (1985-1990) to run. That would be hilarious, considering his age (will be 84 in 2014) and reputation of a corrupt oligarch.

On the other hand, Brazil is a land of comebacks. Lula got elected after three failed campaigns. Vargas was voted to office five years after being deposed. Fernando Collor resurfaced again. Even freaking Paulo Maluf is still around. And Itamar attempted to run in 1998, 2006 and 2010.

Hell, the reanimated corpse of Tancredo Neves declaring would not surprise me

Aécio is running.

I meant real Tancredo Neves.

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Regarding other races I wonder if Fernie will run for reelection or give another try at Emperor of Alagoas.

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Any other possible candidates from the PSDB outside of Aecio The Plastic Man Neves?

They should run Chu-Chu, with Serra in 2018. Imagine that pattern, Serra-ChuChu-Serra-ChuChu-Serra

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I'm pretty sure a runoff is unavoidable. The only times it didn't happen were 1994 and 1998 and Cardoso's popularity was, in long term, kind of fluke. Even Lula, with his great popularity in 2006, had to face Chu-Chu (and annihilate him). Also, IIRC up until last weeks Dilma was thought to win in the first round, just to face Serra again.

That being said, I really don't see the Plastic Man from Minas winning this election, Dilma's current troubles nowwithstanding.

(Though I admit: I lost touch with Brazilian politics recently )

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Aécio Neves
Grandson of Tancredo Neves, first civilian president electer after the military dictatorship who died before the innauguration

I believe Neves died over a month after his set inauguration, but, due to illness, was not able to take an oath, resulting in Sarney becoming Acting President upon being sworn-in as Vice President. Nevertheless, Neves is officially counted as 30th President of Brazil out of courtesy. Some sources lists his term as from March 15 to April 21, 1985, when he was incapacitated, though most lists him as unable to assume office, even formally.

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Aécio Neves
Grandson of Tancredo Neves, first civilian president electer after the military dictatorship who died before the innauguration

I believe Neves died over a month after his set inauguration, but, due to illness, was not able to take an oath, resulting in Sarney becoming Acting President upon being sworn-in as Vice President. Nevertheless, Neves is officially counted as 30th President of Brazil out of courtesy. Some sources lists his term as from March 15 to April 21, 1985, when he was incapacitated, though most lists him as unable to assume office, even formally.

Sure

The innauguration of Tancredo Neves was scheduled to March 15, 1985. He became sick and had to go to the hospital on March 14. And then, he never assumed office. He died on April 21. Vice presidente Sarney assumed office as a provisory president on March 15 and became the definitive president on April 21.
The constitution was ignored. Since the elected president did not assume office, the elected vice president could not have assumed as the president, because the vice could not substitute someone that has never been the president. If the constitution were respected, the president of the Chamber of Deputies should have become the provisory president on March 15.

Thanks I've always been confused about that issue.

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moreover they are trying to portrait the PSB's candidate as an inexperiente leader that won't work in Brazil's political environment and are comparing her to Collor and Jânio Quadros.

It's such a shame Collor isn't running himself. You say "WTF?", but if Itamar could keep trying to run for President way until 2006, why the hell not?

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Collor is running for senator from the state of Alagoas. Probably he will win. He would have no more than 5% if he ran for president. There is no sense for him to run for president.

I know, right?

Seriously though, great job with this thread, guys. I've lost touch with Brazilian politics, so it helps me get reconnected to this

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Bovespa is sliding about 3% today over rumors that Marina is quickly losing steam in tracking polls.

Any chance of Aecio recovering and making it into a runoff?

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Perhaps in 2022 or 2026 he'll be luckier.

Aecio can always follow his grandfather's steps closely and keep trying until he succeeds in his 70s, although following Tancredo Neves is rather risky, considering what happened to him next.

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Exactly. Under Brazilian law, you're forced to resign from Executive office 6 months before the election if you want to run for some other public office (this rule doesn't apply if you're running for reelection or if you're a legislator). Thus, Aecio Neves resigned and Anastasia took office. This law has tons of critics but I don't see it being changed for now.

And now Anastasia himself had to resign to run for Senate.

I really don't understand why an executive should resign while running for another post while a legislator doesn't have to.

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If Aecio indeed comes third, not making into a runoff, it would be the first time PSDB did not take one of two first places in presidential election. Could that, combined with troubles in his home state (gubernatorial race) really damage his future chances? Though, again, Brazilian politics is known for comebacks.

(Sorry if I'm asking dumb questions)

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Thank you for your extremely informative answer, Paleobrazilian!

Seems Aecio really screwed himself with his own Party. Aren't things such as "Lula-Aecio" and "Dilma-Anastasia" a big no-no for PT and PSDB establishments?

A thought of Aecio switching to PMDB or PTB and becoming their candidate is interesting. Haven't PMDB last run a candidate in 1994? Quite interesting for the biggest party.

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Second, it's crucial to understand the shift I mentioned above. When the PSDB was created back in 1988, it was supposed to be a "new left" political party, Brazil's own "new Labour". It's most prominent members in the beginning were well known left wing thinkers such as FHC, José Serra, José Aníbal, etc. As any "new left" group, they were pretty much a center-left party with highly pragmatical policies. The best example is the famous "infusion of capitalism" speech given by the great Mario Covas back in 1989, when he mentioned the urging need of more liberalism allied to social policies. That was pretty much the PSDB you had until 2002.

When the PT took over the federal government, it pretty much took over the center-left sweet spot the PSDB and it's older leaders occupied (perhaps a tad to the left than the PSDB used to be). Some will say the PSDB was a right wing party back then, I strongly reject this notion but I guess this depends on what one consider as left or right. Anyway, it's pretty clear PSDB members started to shift slowly to the right after 2002, slowly embracing economic liberalism less shyly and some conservative social policies (specially on law enforcement matters). This trend was accelerated in 2010 and 2012, when many toucans and close allies were elected under center-right platforms and policies, including Alckmin, Beto Richa, Aloysio Nunes, ACM Neto, etc. Alckmin is running a decidely center-right campaign this year (specially on law enforcement matters, where he's adopting a strong law and order speech) that's proving to be very successful.

Well, personally I always saw it this way: PSDB pretty much started as a classical social democratic party (including Covas supporting Lula against Collor in 1989, after not making it into the runoff). In 1990s, like many social democratic parties, PSBD embraced third way policy, as evident with FHQ famous statement of rejecting "outdated labels" such as "left" and "right". By 2000s, and with third way philosophy demise, the party simply could not shift back to the left, even if they wanted to, because there is simply not enough room.

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Minas Gerais (10,7% of the Brazilian electorate)

Governor
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 45%
Pimenta da Veiga (PSDB) 25%

President
Dilma Rousseff (PT) 36%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 31%
Marina Silva (PSB) 17%
Pastor Everaldo (PSC) 1%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 1%

Wow. Aecio losing his home state would be quite devastating, wouldn't it?

(Yes, I know Minas is also Dilma's home state, but given Aecio was a highly popular Governor with strong machine...)

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Minas Gerais (10,7% of the Brazilian electorate)

Governor
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 45%
Pimenta da Veiga (PSDB) 25%

President
Dilma Rousseff (PT) 36%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 31%
Marina Silva (PSB) 17%
Pastor Everaldo (PSC) 1%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 1%

Wow. Aecio losing his home state would be quite devastating, wouldn't it?

(Yes, I know Minas is also Dilma's home state, but given Aecio was a highly popular Governor with strong machine...)

Dilma's birth state is Minas Gerais. Dilma's home state is Rio Grande do Sul.

OK, I got confused because wiki listed Minas as her "home state".

Btw, it's interesting to see how many leftist political figures in Brazil were or are based in  Rio Grande do Sul.

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Damn. I was gearing up for Dilma v. Marina runoff. That would be really interesting

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What a shame. A Dilma/Marina runoff would have been so much more interesting...

Well, at least with Collor's reelection in Alagoas there's something to celebrate about.

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Runoff prediction time!


Aécio: 50%
Dilma: 46%


BREAKING NEWS

December 31, 2014

(Brasília) President-elect Aécio Neves (PSDB-Minas) suddenly died on eve of his inauguration, after a two-months wild spree of celebrating his election. No official determination was made, but the source close to the PSDB headquarters indicates Aécio's ego exploded, rupturing his inside. Poor man had no chance, the source commented.

Vice President-elect Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-São Paulo) is set to fill Aécio's term instead.

Speaking of his longtime political mentor's passing, Senator Antonio Anastasia recalled: Aécio always wanted to be just like his grandpa.

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Runoff prediction time!


Aécio: 50%
Dilma: 46%


BREAKING NEWS

December 31, 2014

(Brasília) President-elect Aécio Neves (PSDB-Minas) suddenly died on eve of his inauguration, after a two-months wild spree of celebrating his election. No official determination was made, but the source close to the PSDB headquarters indicates Aécio's ego exploded, rupturing his inside. Poor man had no chance, the source commented.

Vice President-elect Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-São Paulo) is set to fill Aécio's term instead.

Speaking of his longtime political mentor's passing, Senator Antonio Anastasia recalled: Aécio always wanted to be just like his grandpa.

Should not the vote shares of the two add up to 100% by definition.

Aren't blank votes counted?

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Two questions:

1. Why is PSDB so freaking strong in SP? (and PT so weak?)
2. While Aecio made a remarkable comeback, he just lost his home state of Minas, where he was suppoused to be a God. Would that make any effect or it doesn't matter? 

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Alckmin must be really pissed now.

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Alckmin must be really pissed now.

Actually he's been campaigning pretty hard for the last few days as Aecio made a firm commitment for the end of reelection.

Well in this case it''s understandable.