Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[RodPresident]

Brazilian right will vote for who can beat Dilma. There are rumors that Serra will change to PPS (former commies turned right-wing) and support Campos' presidential bid.

[RodPresident]

Collor will have the fight for his life against Governor Vilela (PSDB) in senatorial election. I think that running for governorship would be a better path for him.
In Rio, Campos can get support of former governor Garotinho (PR).

[RodPresident]

And supporting Campos in Rio would backfire badly as he was behind oil royalties take-over.

[RodPresident]

PC do B is very likely to endorse Dilma and supporting her would be vital for Flavio Dino's gubernatorial campaign in Maranhão, even she endorses Sarney's candidate.
Electoral Justice ordered a reapportionment of seats in Chamber. This will affect state legislatures too.
Until 12 congressmen: 3 x congressmen in state legislature (a state with 10 congressmen will have 30 state legislators)
More than 12 congressman: 3 x 12 + (state congressmen - 12). (Bahia have 39 congressmen and 63 state legislators).
Alagoas, Espirito Santo, Pernambuco, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul: -1
Paraíba and Piauí: -2
Amazonas and Santa Catarina: +1
Ceará and Minas Gerais: +2
Pará: +4

[RodPresident]

PSOL collected signatures and got registration in almost 2 years. Marina has to hurry up if she wants anything in 2014.

[RodPresident]

It was because a threesold of 5%. Garotinho helped PSB nationally to get it. Garotinho split with PDT and PT when he supported undercover Luiz Paulo Conde (then PFL) reelection bid in 2000 against Brizola and Lieutenant Governor Benedita da Silva. In 2002, Garotinho was believed that he would stay at midrange and that brought a panic among PSB members. São Paulo (Jacó Bittar, former mayor of Campinas) and Bahia (Lidice da Mata, now senator) dropped out fearing a failure. But with Ciro's colapse and evangelical support, Garotinho got a late surge but received Serra's attacks at last 15 days of campaign and failed to get to runoff, although he was able to get Rosinha's victory at first round in Rio.
He split with PSB because he hoped to get a ministerial job in Lula's government like Ciro Gomes, but failed. He went to PMDB with promise of being presidential candidate in 2006. His demise in 2006 was brought by a pro-Lula PMDB wing that feared that a populist Garotinho campaign would take many voters from him in post-Mensalão wave, while PSDB and right-wings feared that Garotinho would take their place as one of main forces and becoming a Brazilian version of Kirchner and Chavez. Veja (most pro-PSDB magazine) published an attack towards Garotinho.

[RodPresident]

batmacumba...You're good. Veja was a good magazine, but they radicalized as Lula became able to win election. I remember when Garotinho called PT of "partido da boquinha". Garotinho owes his election in 1998 because PT intervention to give support to him, because PSDB neutrality in run-off against César Maia (Cabral who was Legislative Assembly speaker allied with Garotinho and switched some time after to PMDB) and evangelical support. Brizola by 1998 wasn't so influential in Rio politics. To show that, he got only a 4th place in Rio mayoral election and a 6th place in 2002 senatorial election.
Roberto Marinho (Globo's owner) said after Collor's debacle that "We won't be able to elect one of us again". Then they propped FHC.
Enjoy your moqueca capixaba, batmacumba.

[RodPresident]

Marina is getting signatures to get her party approved in evangelical churches.

[RodPresident]

After protests, Dilma collapsed in polls
Dilma (PT): 30%
Marina (Network): 23%
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 17%
Eduardo Campos (PSB): 7%
Her approvals went from 57% to 30%, while negatives went from 9% to 25%. Many are now supporting Lula's comeback.

[RodPresident]

A big maneuver is going to happen. Marina Silva is going to join PSB and can form an alliance with Campos. PSB received some notorious right-wingers in last times, like Paulo Bornhausen (son of Jorge Bornhausen) and Heráclito Fortes (one of DEM defeated senators by left-wing wave in 2010).

[RodPresident]

Burito, you made a very pessimistic prospect for Dilma in Pernambuco. Many people won't understand Campos split with PT and he'll have difficulties to win in Pernambuco.

[RodPresident]

Governor of Sergipe Marcelo Deda, 53, died today due to a digestive cancer in Sao Paulo. He was serving his 2nd term, but he was out of office since May. He served in State Legislature, Chamber of Deputies (as PT caucus leader) and as Mayor of Aracaju (2001-06). He'll be replaced by Lieutenant Governor Jackson Barreto (PMDB).

[RodPresident]

Plinio de Arruda Sampaio, 83, died yesterday after a bone cancer. He started in politics in Democratic Christian Party and was expelled from Congress by military coup in 1964. After amnesty, he joined Workers Party (PT) and served again in Congress and ran for São Paulo's governorship in 1990. In 2005, he switched parties and went to far-left Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL), running again for governorship in 2006. He gained national popularity during 2010 presidential campaign, where he was seen as "crazy funny old guy" who was very popular in social networks, but he gained only 0.87% of votes. RIP!

[RodPresident]

It's now nearly certain Marina Silva will head the ticket. Congressman Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS), who was running for the Senate, will probably be her running mate.

Beto is a Campos' loyalist. He was 2nd best-voted congressman in RS and served as Infrastructure Secretary at Genro's government. He left job to help Campos. He would be good to attract sympathy votes after he gets national electorate to know his personal drama. His son Pietro died in 2009, after sufering a hard kind of leukaemia where all of solutions were tested, but all failed because lack of compatible donators.

[RodPresident]

I'm a Dilma's supporter and I'm calm about Marina's surge. She'll self-implode at some moment. She had first crisis with PSB's cupula as Carlos Siqueira, Secretary-General of PSB, resigned as campaign manager. He'll be replaced by Luiza Erundina, although this will be only symbolic, as Erundina has some criticism of Marina's critic of traditional politics and her business allies. Marina had promised to give autonomy to Central Bank and to end reelection.

[RodPresident]

In 2010, Marina hadn't same vetting she's going to get now. She's being attacked by right-wing newspapers, like receiving critics from left. Aecio has 40 days to recover. Water crisis in São Paulo isn't affecting Alckmin because weak opponents, but people in São Paulo can protest voting in Marina (who refused to support PSB's alliance with Alckmin-many say that she wasn't on Campos' flight to not meet him).

[RodPresident]

Beto Albuquerque, Marina's running-mate will be replaced in Rio Grande do Sul's Senate dispute by incumbent Pedro Simon who'll run for 5th senate term. He planned to retire, but he was seen as only electable name.

[RodPresident]

What a horrible debate!

Only the Green Party candidate Eduardo Jorge is a little bit better

Eduardo Jorge's rhetorics are more left-wing aggressive than Luciana Genro. And he served as secretary in Serra-Kassab government in São Paulo. And running-mate Célia Sacramento is ACM Neto's deputy mayor.

[RodPresident]

Gilberto Kassab is running against Serra!? And good to see Beto Richa in the lead; I remember being told he'd have a hard time against Hoffmann, which isn't the case. I think he's a strong contender for the nomination in 2018/2022.

Many expected Hoffmann would be a strong candidate because she'd have strong Lula/Dilma support. The problem is that Paraná may well be Brazil's most conservative and anti-PT state. Also, Richa's ratings are quite high. The PT wanted to have stronger footing in Paraná, but in the end this may end up backfiring and could even hurt Dilma in a state with nearly 8 million voters.

I do think Richa could be a viable name for 2018/2022, but right now Alckmin is clearly the pole-sitter - specially if he crushes his opposition in São Paulo as it looks like right now. Alckmin is already known nationally, has the support of many within the higher ranks of the PSDB, and is a strong fundraiser (important if private funding is kept until 2018). In fact, Alckmin knows all this very well and due to this is not really putting much effort on Neves' campaign. Don't forget he's working with Marina's PSB in São Paulo.

Richa could be viable, but he'd have a hard time raising his name recognition around the country. He's a complete unknown outside Paraná. This is a problem Aécio is having right now, he's still unknown to about 1/4 of Brazil.

Now an Alckmin-Richa ticket would be sweet, and probably excellent to unify a pparty that's been hurt way too much by internal fighting.

Paraná's PT had many problems. A Hoffmann's secretary was jailed for paedophilia and congressman André Vargas' (former PT) dealings with lobbysts went very bad. Curitiba's mayor Gustavo Fruet  (PDT), a Gleisi's ally isn't at his best. And Richa helped Requião some way by trying to get PMDB support anyway. This energized Requião group to fight back after almost losing 2010 senatorial election. And Requião runs to Gleisi's left. He's a sui generis PMDB as being most progressive Senator. And this IBOPE poll can't be trusted.

[RodPresident]

Collor is on ticket supported by PT, former enemy Ronaldo Lessa (of PDT). His gubernatorial candidate is Congressman Renan Filho (son of Senate President, Renan Calheiros). Main opponent is former senator Heloisa Helena (PSOL) who got PSDB undercover endorsement.

[RodPresident]

I think that PT failed to create a bench in São Paulo. And old party names are in jail or weakned. Padilha isn't well because Haddad isn't popular(he's acting more like a technical than a politician).And Alckmin is winning more due to weak opponents than being a fantastic governor. Skaf looks a lemon salesman. And looks that Alckmin can be national best voted governor in first round. I think that to win in São Paulo, PT should support an outside candidate from a non-PT party, like a non-capital mayor, like Rodrigo Agostinho (Bauru-PMDB) or Darcy Vera (Ribeirao Preto-PSD). Suplicy is somewhat out of touch with state demands and he looks to be somewhat senile.
In Rio de Janeiro, run-off can be a problem for Pezão. He's well because of his large TV time, but in run-off, with equal times, he can lose to a good orator, like Garotinho. And kingmaker can be Romario (he almost went to Garotinho's PR, but withdrew when Campos gave him PSB's control).
In Minas Gerais, Pimenta da Veiga was chosen to prevent a internal fight and to make national PSDB bosses happy (Pimenta was old tucano). But controversies due to Aecio's airport scandal and Marina's surge prevented a large advantadge. But Pimentel (PT) isn't controversial. In 2008, he allied Aecio to support Marcio Lacerda (PSB)'s mayoral bid.
In Pernambuco, Campos' family is going heavy to campaign for Camara, fearing a last week victory by Monteiro.

[RodPresident]

Main theme today was homophobic rant by candidate Levy Fidelix (PRTB) at yesterday TV Record debate. After a question by Luciana Genro (PSOL), he said that "two equal people don't reproduce" and that "excretive system don't give birth". He proposed that straight majority should "defy" LGBT minority. OAB (Brazilian bar) is requesting that his registration to be banned.

[RodPresident]

Prediction
Dilma: 47.3%
Aécio: 25.3%
Marina: 22.8%
All of others: 4.6% (order: Luciana Genro, Everaldo, Eduardo Jorge, Fidelix, Zé Maria, Eymael, Iasi, Costa Pimenta)
My votes:
President: Dilma (PT)
Governor: Renata Mallet (PSTU)
Senator: Otto Alencar (PSD)
Federal legislator: Amauri Teixeira (PT)
State legislator: Angelo Almeida (PT)
If Brazil had alternate vote for president, I'd vote in that order:
1. Luciana Genro
2. Dilma Rousseff
3. Rui Costa Pimenta
4. Mauro Iasi
5. Zé Maria
6.Levy Fidelix (even if he's homophobic, I like his retoric against banks and populism)
7. Eduardo Jorge (my problem with him is running-mate Celia Sacramento who supports ACM Neto's gang in Bahia)
8. Eymael
9. Marina
10. Aécio
11. Everaldo (i don't like his neoliberal and social conservative rhetoric).

[RodPresident]

Dilma had a massive surge after start of free TV airtime. Dilma got 55% in some polls, but after Erenice Guerra's scandal (Dilma's trusted right-hand at government)...
Breaking in my state:
Paulo Souto  DEM): 36%
Rui Costa (PT): 36%
Lidice (PSB): 4%
Another 3 candidates: 1% each

[RodPresident]

In RS, two another main contenders of 2010 gubernatorial election failed to get into chamber (former senator José Fogaça and former governor Yeda Crusius). In ES, former mayor of Vitória, Luiz Paulo Velloso Lucas failed to get elected.