Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Niemeyerite]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they dont vote Neves?

Dilma began her campaign in 2010 polling at 3%, so, as soon as the campaign starts, expect Neves to climb to 20-25% really fast.

[Niemeyerite]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they dont vote Neves?

Dilma began her campaign in 2010 polling at 3%, so, as soon as the campaign starts, expect Neves to climb to 20-25% really fast.

OK, thats weird, but I suppose the low level of party affiliation accounts for that.

But to rephrase my main question. Does Silva have a chance? Is there any dynamic in which she becomes the anti-Dilma?

I don't think so, she could get to 2nd round, but, IMHO, no way she beats Dilma. Once the campaign begins, Aecio will steal some of her supporters (who are just people who want to kick Dilma and will vote for the "strongest" candidate: that means whomever PSDB puts as candidate) and Eduardo Campos, as a left-winger, will probably get some of her votes, too (maybe he'll also damage Dilma). And PSB is a strong brand now, so I wouldn't be too surprised if Campos got 20% of the vote.

So, I believe Marina will not get anywhere near 35%, I could be wrong, of course, but I think she'll get about 25%, considering her good results in 2010 and that she may be stronger now.

Finally, we have to remember that PV may run Gabeira this time, and he's a big name, so Marina could have worse results now than she had in 2010... But, considering the polls that's not likely. For the moment.

If I had to make a prediction -it's absurd, because things change in one years, politicians make gaffes...-, it'd be something like this:

Dilma 38-43%
Aecio 23-28%
Marina 16-21%
Eduardo 13-18%
Gabeira 4-5%
PSOL 1-2%
Others 1%

I know that's more than 100%, but you get the idea

[Niemeyerite]

I've heard some folks in the PMDB wants former President Jose Sarney (1985-1990) to run. That would be hilarious, considering his age (will be 84 in 2014) and reputation of a corrupt oligarch.

On the other hand, Brazil is a land of comebacks. Lula got elected after three failed campaigns. Vargas was voted to office five years after being deposed. Fernando Collor resurfaced again. Even freaking Paulo Maluf is still around. And Itamar attempted to run in 1998, 2006 and 2010.

Hell, the reanimated corpse of Tancredo Neves declaring would not surprise me

Aécio is running.

[Niemeyerite]

I've heard some folks in the PMDB wants former President Jose Sarney (1985-1990) to run. That would be hilarious, considering his age (will be 84 in 2014) and reputation of a corrupt oligarch.

On the other hand, Brazil is a land of comebacks. Lula got elected after three failed campaigns. Vargas was voted to office five years after being deposed. Fernando Collor resurfaced again. Even freaking Paulo Maluf is still around. And Itamar attempted to run in 1998, 2006 and 2010.

Hell, the reanimated corpse of Tancredo Neves declaring would not surprise me

Aécio is running.

I meant real Tancredo Neves.

He's not as dangerous as his grandson, the cocaine man.

[Niemeyerite]

Why is Alckman called Chu-chu?

Chuchu means Cabbage, Actualy his nickname was Picolé de Chuchu, Cabbage Popsicle. He was a guy without any kind of charisma, he was not like Lula... Do you ever noticed how cabbage doesn't have any kind of taste...

Cabbage? That's not what we call chuchu in Minas Gerais ;p

It's supposed to be "chayote" in English: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chayote

[Niemeyerite]

Why is Alckman called Chu-chu?

Chuchu means Cabbage, Actualy his nickname was Picolé de Chuchu, Cabbage Popsicle. He was a guy without any kind of charisma, he was not like Lula... Do you ever noticed how cabbage doesn't have any kind of taste...

Cabbage? That's not what we call chuchu in Minas Gerais ;p

It's supposed to be "chayote" in English: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chayote

Haha That is it! I alwats have a problem translating chuchu in English but I think you could understand my explanation, couldn't  you?

Of course I can, Ralph Nader. Don't forget to post something in the 2008 campaign thread, BTW!

[Niemeyerite]

On a small note,

Marina Silva defended and gave an eulogy to the polemic deputy Pr. Marco Feliciano, a fundamentalist who managed to be chosen president of the congress' Human Rights comission. LGBT's, blacks and feminists are in a giant hiss, since then (together with everyone who is not a fascist pig).

Every friend of mine who voted for her 'xingou muito no twitter' (stupid meme), i.e., put in every virtual community that they wouldn't vote for her anymore. It seems that she is exchanging young bobos (her main urban vote in 2010) for fundamentalist christians.

Bad move, IMO.

If she continues that way, my family may vote for her.

[Niemeyerite]

On a small note,

Marina Silva defended and gave an eulogy to the polemic deputy Pr. Marco Feliciano, a fundamentalist who managed to be chosen president of the congress' Human Rights comission. LGBT's, blacks and feminists are in a giant hiss, since then (together with everyone who is not a fascist pig).

Every friend of mine who voted for her 'xingou muito no twitter' (stupid meme), i.e., put in every virtual community that they wouldn't vote for her anymore. It seems that she is exchanging young bobos (her main urban vote in 2010) for fundamentalist christians.

Bad move, IMO.

If she continues that way, my family may vote for her.

If I remember well what you tell about your family, they seem a perfect target for Dudu Beleza. Marina will probably take the poorer conservatives, if she maintain this course.

I was joking, they'll vote for Neves, even if they don't like him, for sure (one of my aunts may vote for Silva: she voted for her in the 1st round in 2010, then switched to Serra).

[Niemeyerite]

Olavo de Carvalho is a joke and even my family, full of conservatives, ackowledges that. Are you Olavo, or what?

[Niemeyerite]

The only thing I'm seeing here is apologism of a dictature, which usually isn't allowed or tolerated here.

Yeah, this guy is basically saying: "our dictature wasn't that bad. Conservative christians and obedient people had nothing to fear about" which is laughable, sad and dangerous at the same time.

[Niemeyerite]

Wow, unbelievable. RIP.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't know who I will vote for. Neves was my mother's friend (when they worked together in the Belo Horizonte City Hall), I like Marina because she puts the focus on environment protection (as a Greenpeace member and a person concerned about the future of the Amazonas, this is a critical issue for me), I approve of many things Dilma -and Lula before her- has done as President (I support Bolsa Familia, Mais Médicos and, specially, Minha Casa Minha Vida, Luz para Todos and the foreign policy).

So, yes, this is a weird election where I'm more or less "happy" with any candidate. Neves is almost discarded because he's too "moderate hero" for my taste and is the candidate of the right (even if he can't be considered right-wing), Marina has some wacky positions (social issues, mainly) that make me cringe, and Dilma is supported by some parties like PP and PRB that I hate and hasn't fought enough against corruption... So, I think I may end up voting for Eduardo Jorge (PV) or Luciana Genro (PSOL) in the 1st round and then voting for Dilma in the 2nd, but, as I said, that may change. I like Mauro Iasi (PCB) a lot but no way I'm voting for his party .

[Niemeyerite]

I will vote for Luciana Genro in the first round and for Dilma Roussef in the runoff, no matter if her oponnent is Aécio Neves or Marina Silva.
I agree with RodPresident. Marina Silva will self implode. I think that Aécio Neves will go to the runoff.

For governor of Rio de Janeiro, I will vote for PT candidate Lindberg Farias. For senator, I still don't know if I will vote for Romário or for the PSOL candidate.

So, it's very possible we vote the same way in the Presidential election

I'm not sure Marina will implode. She didn't in 2010, I don't see why she will this time.

I can only vote for President, but if I could cast a ballot for Governor, I'd vote for Pimentel for sure. I wouldn't waste time thinking about my vote for Senator, as Anastasia will win, but I think my vote would vote for the PSTU/PCB/PCO/whatever candidate.

[Niemeyerite]

BTW, October 5th I'll be voting those:

President: Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG)/Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-SP)
Governor: Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB-SP)/Marcio França (PSB-SP)
Senator: José Serra (PSDB-SP)
Representative: Carlos Sampaio (PSDB-SP)
State Rep.: Fernando Capez (PSDB-SP)

A full house of toucans

I like this. And Serra is running for Senate? Will that man just retire?

He may even win this time!! He's running against Suplicy and the last poll indicattes he's 3 points ahead...

[Niemeyerite]

Why are Brazilians apparently so keen on naming people by their first name only ? Lack of variety in family names ? But surely Rousseff is remarkable enough to stand out ? Is it Iceland in disguise ?

And since Silva's candidacy following Campos' death, several of you have predicted the end of her fad : are you sure it will end, and when would you estimate it will ?

I don't think it will... Aecio is a very weak candidate and, IMHO, she's not as weak as people are predicting here. She had a good debate performance and the "attacks" on her are a bit ridiculous so far... The media keeps talking about the plane that killed Campos.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm voting for Eduardo Jorge in the 1st round, and undecided in the 2nd, but definitely lealing Dilma after Marina changed her manifiesto to please Silas Malafaia... But, to be honest, I think it's better for the PT to lose now to Marina Silva than to lose in 2018 against some crook candidate from the right.

[Niemeyerite]

Superique, Paleobrazilian, would you vote for Marina in the 2nd round? Proudly or reluctantly?

[Niemeyerite]

I'm undecided between Eduardo Jorge and Lucians Genro in the 1st. round right now... I've just watched the last debate and liked Genro more... What would you do??

[Niemeyerite]

I have already considered the possibility of voting for Luciana Genro or Eduardo Jorge. But then, I realized that they don't want to be the president. They want only to show the ideas of their parties during the campaign. That's why I will vote for Dilma Rousseff. I don't like "protest vote".

I don't like protest vote either, but I can't vote for Dilma in the 1st round... We disagree on many, many issues: abortion, LGBT rights, drugs, environment... Whatsmore, I find her soft on corruption and hate some of the parties who are supporting her (PP, PRB).

I think I'll vote for Eduardo Jorge in the end just because I like him more, but I hope both of them get over 1% (Luciana over 2% could be possible!).

[Niemeyerite]

Time for predictions!

Here's mine:

Dilma Rousseff 44.5%
Marina Silva 26.5%
Aécio Neves 23%
Luciana Genro 2%
Pastor Everaldo 1.5%
Eduardo Jorge 1%
Levy Fidelix 0.5%
Others 1%

I'll watch the debate that took place yesterday. If I like Luciana more, my vote goes for her. If I like Jorge more, he'll get my vote. (My vote and my mother's vote.)

[Niemeyerite]

Datafolha predicts the following runoff between Dilma x Aecio: Dilma 48% x Aecio 42% (53% x 47% on valid votes). Geraldo Alckmin was never this close to Lula in 2006, José Serra was never this close to Dilma in 2010. PSDBists will be hugely motivated now.

Serra actually tied Dilma in some polls.

[Niemeyerite]

Just voted with my mum. She knows nothing about Brazil politics since she came to Spain... And I was undecided between Jorge and Genro... So the solution was: I voted for Jorge and she voted for Genro! As simple as that hahahaha..

[Niemeyerite]

There's an exit poll being spread on the Twitter, which says Dilma 52%, Aécio 22%, Marina 21%... It may be a hoax, but there are other users saying the CNN exit poll has Dilma winning with 55%.

[Niemeyerite]

Jesus, Serra is delivering quite the smacking to Suplicy right now.

Sad and amazing at the same time.

PT is overperforming in many state races (but not in RS). Let's see if Dilma manages to overperform, too. I hope she doesn't, I want to vote again! But, TBH, I won't b too upset if she does.

[Niemeyerite]

National exit poll:

Dilma: 44%
Aecio: 30%
Marina: 22%
L. Genro: 2%
Rev. Feliciano: 1%
Others: 1%

Aecio closes very strongly.

I hope you mean Pastor Everaldo