Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Paleobrazilian]

Eduardo Campos' plane has crashed in the city of Santos/SP. According to Globo News he has passed.

Unbelievable news. RIP Eduardo.

[Paleobrazilian]

7 passengers on board have passed, including Eduardo Campos and his staff. Unbelievable.

[Paleobrazilian]

Under federal law, the PSB and its colligation (formed by the PSB, the PPS and 4 minor parties) has 10 days to appoint a new presidential candidate. Marina Silva should be the favorite, but it's important to remember she's not trully from the PSB - she only joined the PSB because her party didn't get registration in time for this election.

If not her, the PSB could perhaps look into they bench in Congress. Perhaps an outsider, as Belo Horizonte's Mayor Marcio Lacerda. Perhaps Roberto Freire, PPS' president. Or perhaps they'll simply appoint nobody.

It's important to remember the PSB suffered a break-up a few months ago as some of its members (specially the Gomes brothers) wanted to stay as allies of the PT and were against Campos' candidacy. Some of those left the PSB and founded the pro-PT PROS, but a few of those remained in the PSB.

[Paleobrazilian]

Marina Silva scares BOTH Dilma Rousseff and Aecio Neves. While there's no polling yet, I'd expect Marina Silva to be on an statistical tie with Aecio Neves, around 18% each, while Dilma gets around 35%. In fact, the tragedy could bring an even bigger bounce in favor of Marina, and even if Neves has more TV time and money on hand to spend, the national mood could make Marina the front-runner for the second spot in the runoff.

If Marina takes Campos's place, well... For Aecio Neves, this makes getting into the runoff quite tougher. If he makes the runoff, PSB's support could end up being a huge bun, although I don't think Marina would formally endorse him. Meanwhile, for Dilma, this basically kills any hope she had of getting a 1st round win, and potentially makes the runoff even more difficult. If Marina gets into the runoff, basically all votes for Neves will quickly migrate to Marina, and when you consider the votes for Reverend Everaldo and Eduardo Jorge, that should also migrate to Marina, those votes combined should probably be enough to defeat Dilma.

It's highly likely Marina Silva will head the ticket, according to most well informed sources. The problem is, Marina still displeases many on the PSB and would probably have to agree to endorse and campaign for candidates on statewide races she dislikes - as Geraldo Alckmin's reelection campaign in São Paulo and Lindberg Farias' campaign in Rio de Janeiro. It's important to remember that the PSB's national chairman, Marcio França, is running for Vice Governor on Geraldo Alckmin's ticket, and his opinion will be very important on this process.

If Marina Silva is indeed the candidate, it's speculated that Roberto Freire will be their VP candidate.

[Paleobrazilian]

It's now nearly certain Marina Silva will head the ticket. Congressman Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS), who was running for the Senate, will probably be her running mate.

[Paleobrazilian]

[Paleobrazilian]

Rep. Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS) has been chosen as the running mate. Nice pick.

[Paleobrazilian]

A new pack of IBOPE polls will be released next Tuesday, so we'll have the chance to see whether the trends observed by Datafolha will keep up, and if the first days of TV and radio campaign will have relevant impact.

[Paleobrazilian]

So what are Silva's positions? Is she to the left or right of Dilma?

To the right, specially on social issues.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to internals Marina has now left Aecio Neves behind and in some polls is already statistically tied to President Rousseff.

Tactical voting will end up dooming Neves, probably. And in a runoff, Marina would be the favorite today. Who'd have thought?

[Paleobrazilian]

Datafolha will release a new poll next week as well, so we'll have some solid info in a few days.

This new poll will also show if  the first TV debate (next Tuesday) had any effect.

[Paleobrazilian]

Marina is smart and she's wisely flirting with the financial markets and etc. Campos was having fundraising problems and she might solve this. Her main risk is alienating way too many important PSB members and losing vital ground support on many important states, like São Paulo.

Aecio was running a very bland campaign and will have to do something quickly. He's been running good TV ads IMO, but if he doesn't escalate the tone a little bit it may be irrelevant in the end. His advantage is having many unfaithful party cells on his side, like the PP in Rio Grande do Sul and the PDT in Mato Grosso. Those could be even more helpful if there's a runoff.

Oh, and I don't rule out some sort of a shy toucan effect. It has happened before.

[Paleobrazilian]

BTW, October 5th I'll be voting those:

President: Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG)/Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-SP)
Governor: Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB-SP)/Marcio França (PSB-SP)
Senator: José Serra (PSDB-SP)
Representative: Carlos Sampaio (PSDB-SP)
State Rep.: Fernando Capez (PSDB-SP)

A full house of toucans

[Paleobrazilian]

There are many black ops polls going on daily, and since those are not released to the public, they don't have to be registered. Those are essential for House candidates and their parties. Usually parties know pretty early how big their congressional bench will be and who will be there thanks to those polls. Plus, they help the daily tracking all parties do.

According to rumors one of the big pollsters (I'd guess IBOPE) ran a national poll for FEBRABAN (Brazil's powerful banking association). The results were 35% Dilma, 27% Marina and 18% Aécio, and Marina already leading outside the margin of error against Dilma in the runoff (47% x 40%).

As for tracking polls, you'll find tons of supposed leaked numbers around the internet, but most of them are junk. The most reliable ones, according to sources, show numbers similar to those above.

With the new IBOPE being released Tuesday and the new Datafolha around Friday, we'll know better soon.

[Paleobrazilian]

Alckmin tried hard to negotiate this Senate run spot, but the most attractive partner (Gilberto Kassab and his PSD) decided to go with Paulo Skaf. Celso Russomano (PRB) was also considered but in the end the PSDB didn't have to surrender this spot to get PRB's support. This way, Serra ended up being a natural name for the PSDB, as he could well flip a Senate seat that has been red for the last 24 years.

Oh, and what about Paulo Maluf's fake ice bucket challenge?

[Paleobrazilian]

IBOPE numbers are out:



Aecio is probably dead and Dilma is now in huge trouble.

Margin of error: 2%

[Paleobrazilian]

Several important state numbers are out:

São Paulo:

Governor:

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) – 50%
Paulo Skaf (PMDB) – 20%
Alexandre Padilha (PT) – 5%
Gilberto Natalini (PV) – 1%
Raimundo Sena (PCO) – 1%
Laércio Benko (PHS) – 1%
Wagner Farias (PCB) – 0%
Gilberto Maringoni (PSOL) – 0%
Walter Ciglioni (PRTB) – 0%
Null: 10%
Undecided: 11%

Alckmin wins runoff against Skaf 55% x 28%, 9% undecided.

Senator:

José Serra (PSDB) - 33% das intenções de voto
Eduardo Suplicy (PT) - 24%
Gilberto Kassab (PSD) - 7%
Ana Luiza (PSTU) - 2%
Marlene Campos Machado (PTB) - 1%
Fernando Lucas (PRP) - 1%
Kaka Wera (PV) - 1%
Genildo Moreira (PSB) – 1%
Edmilson Costa (PCB) - 0%
Senador Fláquer (PRTB) – 0%
Juraci Garcia (PCO) – 0%
Null - 12%
Undecided - 18%

Rio de Janeiro:

Governor:

Anthony Garotinho (PR) – 28%
Luiz Fernando Pezão (PMDB) –  18%
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) -  16%
Lindberg Farias (PT) –  12%
Tarcísio Motta (PSOL) – 3%
Dayse Oliveira (PSTU) – 1%
Ney Nunes (PCB)  - 1%
Null – 15%
Undecided -  6%

Garotinho leads runoff against Crivella 34% x 33%, leads against Pezão 38% x 31%, leads against Farias 37% x 29%. All scenarios have at least 25% of null votes.

Senator:

Romário (PSB) – 37%
Cesar Maia (DEM) – 22%
Eduardo Serra (PCB) – 5%
Carlos Lupi (PDT) – 3%
Pedro Rosa (PSOL) – 2%
Liliam Sá (PROS) – 2%
Diplomata Sebastião Neves (PRB) – 1%
Heitor Fernandes (PSTU) – 1%
Null – 17%
Undecided - 10%

Minas Gerais:

Governor:

Fernando Pimentel (PT) – 37%
Pimenta da Veiga (PSDB) – 23%
Tarcísio Delgado (PSB) – 3%
Cleide Donária (PCO) – 1%
Eduardo Ferreira (PSDC) – 1%
Fidélis (PSOL) – 1%
Professor Túlio Lopes (PCB) – 1%
Null: 11%
Undecided: 22%

Pimentel leads runoff against da Veiga 42% x 26%, 21% undecided.

Senator:

Antonio Anastasia (PSDB) - 45%
Josué Alencar (PMDB) - 10%
Margarida (PSB) - 2%
Edilson Nascimento (PTdoB) - 1%
Geraldo Batata (PSTU) - 1%
Graça (PCO) - 1%
Pablo Lima (PCB) - 1%
Tarcísio (PSDC) - 1%
Null - 13%
Undecided - 26%

Federal District:

Governor:

- José Roberto Arruda (PR): 37%
- Agnelo Queiroz (PT): 16%
- Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB): 16%
- Toninho do PSOL (PSOL): 4%
- Luiz Pitiman (PSDB): 3%
- Perci Marrara (PCO): 0%
- Null: 7%
- Undecided: 17%

Arruda leads runoff against Queiroz 45% x 23%, 19% undecided, leads Rollemberg 39% x 30%, 22% undecided.

Senator:

- Reguffe (PDT): 29%
- Magela (PT): 16%
- Gim Argello (PTB): 13%
- Aldemário (PSOL): 1%
- Expedito Mendonça (PCO): 1%
- Robson (PSTU): 1%
- Sandra Quezado (PSDB): 2%
- Jamil Magari (PCB): 0%
- Null: 9%
- Undecided: 28%

Pernambuco:

Governor:

Armando Monteiro (PTB): 38%
Paulo Câmara (PSB): 29%
Jair Pedro (PSTU): 1%
Miguel Anacleto (PCB): 1%
Pantaleão (PCO): 1%
Zé Gomes (PSOL): 1%
Null: 13%
Undecided: 16 %

No runoff simulation.

Senator:

João Paulo (PT) - 35%
Fernando Bezerra Coelho (PSB) - 22%
Simone Fontana (PSTU) - 2%
Albanise Pires (PSOL) - 1%
Oxis (PCB) - 1%
Null - 15%
Undecided - 24%

Paraná:

Governor:

Beto Richa (PSDB) – 43%
Requião (PMDB) – 26%
Gleisi Hoffmann (PT) –14%
Tulio Bandeira (PTC) – 1%
Outros com menos de 1% - 1%
Null - 8%
Undecided - 7%

No runoff simulation.

Senator:

Alvaro Dias (PSDB) – 64%
Ricardo Gomyde (PC do B) – 4%
Marcelo Almeida (PMDB) – 2%
Luiz Barbara (PTC) – 1%
Professor Piva (PSOL) – 1%
Outros com menos de 1% - 1%
Null - 12%
Undecided - 15%

[Paleobrazilian]

Gilberto Kassab is running against Serra!? And good to see Beto Richa in the lead; I remember being told he'd have a hard time against Hoffmann, which isn't the case. I think he's a strong contender for the nomination in 2018/2022.

Many expected Hoffmann would be a strong candidate because she'd have strong Lula/Dilma support. The problem is that Paraná may well be Brazil's most conservative and anti-PT state. Also, Richa's ratings are quite high. The PT wanted to have stronger footing in Paraná, but in the end this may end up backfiring and could even hurt Dilma in a state with nearly 8 million voters.

I do think Richa could be a viable name for 2018/2022, but right now Alckmin is clearly the pole-sitter - specially if he crushes his opposition in São Paulo as it looks like right now. Alckmin is already known nationally, has the support of many within the higher ranks of the PSDB, and is a strong fundraiser (important if private funding is kept until 2018). In fact, Alckmin knows all this very well and due to this is not really putting much effort on Neves' campaign. Don't forget he's working with Marina's PSB in São Paulo.

Richa could be viable, but he'd have a hard time raising his name recognition around the country. He's a complete unknown outside Paraná. This is a problem Aécio is having right now, he's still unknown to about 1/4 of Brazil.

Now an Alckmin-Richa ticket would be sweet, and probably excellent to unify a pparty that's been hurt way too much by internal fighting.

[Paleobrazilian]

Actually it doesn't surprise me because the state PSDB has completely thrown Neves under the bus. After Serra's last big loss (2012), Alckmin has completely taken over PSDB's leadership in São Paulo. As I said before, his goal now is sealing his reelection and setting up his 2018 presidential run. Just yesterday Alckmin was running ads with Marina's running mate endorsing him. Alckmin won't even be shy about endorsing a Marina Silva-Geraldo Alckmin vote, just like many PSDB cells in Minas Gerais ran the absurd "Lula-Aécio" double back in 2006, something that really hurt Alckmin's presidential campaign that year.

Tactical vote is also a relevant factor. With new polls showing Marina gaining, many wealthier and middle-class voters that would normally vote PSDB for president will vote Marina-Alckmin. For about 30% of São Paulo, taking the PT out of the federal government is more important than electing someone from the PSDB.

Finally, many on the PSDB's national committee also believe now that endorsing Marina in a runoff and being part of an eventual Marina Silva government coalition wouldn't be that bad. In fact, even leading figures like FHC seem to flirt with this idea. Not to mention that in a runoff Marina could be very useful for the PSDB if she also endorses some government candidates. The PSDB is well placed in some important states. They have a strong chance of retaining São Paulo, Paraná, Goiás and Pará, could still rebound in Minas Gerais, and could perhaps bring new states into play, as Paraíba and Santa Catarina. Also, PSDB allies are leading in important places, such as Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul. All in, there's a growing consensus that it would be better to spend resources on competitive state races, and that helping Marina Silva to (finally) defeat their nemesis wouldn't be such a bad outcome. 2016 and 2018 are just around the corner and Marina has promised she won't run for reelection if elected

[Paleobrazilian]

Why are Brazilians apparently so keen on naming people by their first name only ? Lack of variety in family names ? But surely Rousseff is remarkable enough to stand out ? Is it Iceland in disguise ?

And since Silva's candidacy following Campos' death, several of you have predicted the end of her fad : are you sure it will end, and when would you estimate it will ?

Interesting question. Lack of variety is a factor, the most frequent family names are from a small bunch of portuguese Jews that were forced to convert to Catholicism and later emigrated to Brazil. Also, it's said that Brazil's sad past of slavery is a cause of this, because slaves had their family names ignored by the land owners.

And women in politics are still pretty rare in Brazil, so it's actually easy to cala them by first name.

[Paleobrazilian]

Marina is not losing unless she makes a big mistake. In fact she could even get a 1st round win if Neves keeps bleeding votes.

[Paleobrazilian]

Actually it doesn't surprise me because the state PSDB has completely thrown Neves under the bus. After Serra's last big loss (2012), Alckmin has completely taken over PSDB's leadership in São Paulo. As I said before, his goal now is sealing his reelection and setting up his 2018 presidential run. Just yesterday Alckmin was running ads with Marina's running mate endorsing him. Alckmin won't even be shy about endorsing a Marina Silva-Geraldo Alckmin vote, just like many PSDB cells in Minas Gerais ran the absurd "Lula-Aécio" double back in 2006, something that really hurt Alckmin's presidential campaign that year.

Tactical vote is also a relevant factor. With new polls showing Marina gaining, many wealthier and middle-class voters that would normally vote PSDB for president will vote Marina-Alckmin. For about 30% of São Paulo, taking the PT out of the federal government is more important than electing someone from the PSDB.

Finally, many on the PSDB's national committee also believe now that endorsing Marina in a runoff and being part of an eventual Marina Silva government coalition wouldn't be that bad. In fact, even leading figures like FHC seem to flirt with this idea. Not to mention that in a runoff Marina could be very useful for the PSDB if she also endorses some government candidates. The PSDB is well placed in some important states. They have a strong chance of retaining São Paulo, Paraná, Goiás and Pará, could still rebound in Minas Gerais, and could perhaps bring new states into play, as Paraíba and Santa Catarina. Also, PSDB allies are leading in important places, such as Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul. All in, there's a growing consensus that it would be better to spend resources on competitive state races, and that helping Marina Silva to (finally) defeat their nemesis wouldn't be such a bad outcome. 2016 and 2018 are just around the corner and Marina has promised she won't run for reelection if elected

It is really a mistery how Marina's cabinet would look like. PSDB will be in her cabinet. Maybe, some members of the PT too.
Marina Silva is different of other PT members who left the party. Many of them became Strong enemies of PT, in the left and in the right. Heloísa Helena, Babá, Luciana Genro and Plínio Sampaio joined the leftist PSOL and according to them, the PT looks like the conservative parties, all the parties are bad and only PSOL is good. Fernando Gabeira and Soninha Francine became allies of the PSDB and they say that the PT is corrupt.
These stories didn't happen with Marina Silva. She doesn't consider PT an enemy. She considers only Dilma Roussef an enemy. And Dilma Roussef is not relevant in the history of PT. She joined the PT only in 2001. Marina Silva kept ties with some PT members.
When she left the Ministry of Environment in 2008, she didn't say that Lula's administration was bad. She recognized the sucess of Lula in reducing the poverty, but showed disagreement with Lula's plan to build ungreen hidroelectric power plants in the Amazon Forest. This plan had Dilma Roussef as the main supporter.
In 2012, Marina Silva backed some PT candidates in the municipal elections. She supported Marcio Pochmann in the election for mayor of Campinas.
Of course, in the end of 2013, when she decided to be the running mate of Eduardo Campos, and since August 13th 2014, when she became the candidate, Marina Silva and PT are opponents. Some PT supporters made strong attacks. Some of them were a little stupid. Marina Silva could grow in these last tem days, after receiving attacks from PT and PSDB. Backlash.
Despite the attacks, I think Marina Silva would invite some PT politicians for her cabinet. I don't know if the "Executiva Nacional" from PT would accept.

According to rumors, if Marina wins, PT will move to the opposition. PSDB is expected to join Marina right after the election, if she wins.

[Paleobrazilian]

Right after releasing its latest numbers, Datafolha has already announced a new national poll, that will probably be released Wednesday. Important states will be polled as well.

Oh, and Ibope will also release its newest national numbers this week, probably Wednesday too.

Many believe those new numbers may show Marina already in the high 30s, Dilma stalling, and Neves falling further, probably in the low 10s.

[Paleobrazilian]

One of Neves's most important campaign coordinators, Sen. José Agripino (DEM-RN), said today Neves' coalition will endorse Marina in a runoff to avoid "the biggest danger". Neves' HQ has basically thrown the towel and is just working to avoid losing donors and hurting PSDB's viability in 2018 and beyond.

In fact, Aecio is now expected to focus on electing Pimenta da Veiga, PSDB's candidate to the Government of Minas Gerais. National resources will be rerouted to statewide runs. The PSDB could still elected plenty of governors, as I said before, and they're also well placed to have the third largest bench in the Chamber and in the Senate as well. That would make the PSDB a crucial member of Marina's government, with important cabinet posts, and with important positions in both Congress houses - perhaps even the presidency of one of them.

[Paleobrazilian]

IBOPE numbers for São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. If those numbers are confirmed by the national ones tomorrow, Marina could really start to flirt with a 1st round win.