Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Simfan34]

I like that. "The constitution was ignored".

Well, yesterday's débâcle did not help Dilma.

[Simfan34]

Also I think the saying that the PSDB is a party of right wingers rather than a right wing party is pertinent considering the previous page's discussion.

[Simfan34]

Also Aecio has declared that Sen. Aloysio Nunes (PSB-SP) will be his running mate. I know he ran with PSDB support last time, but what effect might this have? Sao Paulo is the PSDB's home base- Aecio is the first candidate not to come from there, yes?

[Simfan34]

Dilma's lead down to 4 points in a run-off scenario.

Glorious news.

[Simfan34]

Also Levy Fidelix and Eymael are still running? LOL.

[Simfan34]

The fact that Le Corbusier had as much effect on urban planning as he did was a tragedy for us all. The man who proposed the Plan Voisin deserved to be thrown in prison for it, not followed:

[Simfan34]

WTF? How?! Are we sure?

[Simfan34]

Well, Neves was always running... Campos was the candidate of the PSB. I wonder if Marina will become their candidate now.

[Simfan34]

Campos was re-elected with something upwards of 80% of the vote in 2010, right? Around 85% or so. I mean, he was third, but who knows how strongly Marina will perform. I mean she could end up like Ciro in 2002; more hype than a true force in the end. But she might squeak into the second round, and who knows what would happen then...

[Simfan34]

Erundina? LOL.

[Simfan34]

BTW, October 5th I'll be voting those:

President: Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG)/Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-SP)
Governor: Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB-SP)/Marcio França (PSB-SP)
Senator: José Serra (PSDB-SP)
Representative: Carlos Sampaio (PSDB-SP)
State Rep.: Fernando Capez (PSDB-SP)

A full house of toucans

I like this. And Serra is running for Senate? Will that man just retire?

[Simfan34]

This is ridiculous. Unless he talked about ALS in Brazil...

[Simfan34]

Gilberto Kassab is running against Serra!? And good to see Beto Richa in the lead; I remember being told he'd have a hard time against Hoffmann, which isn't the case. I think he's a strong contender for the nomination in 2018/2022.

[Simfan34]

I am confused. Antonio Anastasia was eligible for another term as governor, no? He was elected in 2010.

[Simfan34]

I am confused. Antonio Anastasia was eligible for another term as governor, no? He was elected in 2010.

Nope.

Aécio Neves resigned in March 2010 in order to run for the Senate, Anastasia was the vice governor, so, he became the governor. That's why he was "reelected" in October 2010. He was already in the office during the election. So, he is not eligible for another term.

Ugh, that idiotic law, the decompati-whatever. It should be abolished.

[Simfan34]

Well the PMDB is just supposed to be... there. That is its job. It would be antithetical to its purpose, that being taking as much as a share a of the trough of governance as is possible. Nothing that cannot be done as part of a coalition, at this point.

In a country of amorphous parties, the PMDB excels in having as little as a cohesive ideology as possible; it is a different thing with every candidate, not to mention every state. To run a candidate would would almost certainly be disastrous, and probably precipitate its breakup. But, of course, that doesn't exclude them from trying.

[Simfan34]

Jesus, Serra is delivering quite the smacking to Suplicy right now.

And Alckmin with Skaf. Muito bem.

I really do hope Aecio can go all the away. Brazil needs it, that's for sure.

[Simfan34]

Aecio 46% x Dilma 44% according to Datafolha.

IBOPE has exactly the same numbers.

Praise be to God! The BOVESPA ought to be surging. But it's down 3%- why?

[Simfan34]

Marina Sets Conditions Before Announcing for Aécio

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Wait, banning re-election? What a monumentally idiotic idea. She wants him to back that? They need to scrap the law that mandates you must resign to run for office, instead.

[Simfan34]

Aecio 46% x Dilma 44% according to Datafolha.

IBOPE has exactly the same numbers.

Praise be to God! The BOVESPA ought to be surging. But it's down 3%- why?

I imagine it is because the market feels that unless Aecio has a large lead, the greater scrutiny he will be put under in the rest of the campaign both from Dilma and the press will only push down his vote and in which case Aecio will most likely then lose.  Also the natural resource rout across the board does not help the Brazilian markets which is very natural resource intensive.

The press, broadly speaking, is for Aecio, no?

[Simfan34]

According to some sources the market believed Aecio would be ahead outside the margin of error. But according to Infomoney, a leading economy website from Brazil, Bovespa is just following a very bad day on markets all around the world. There's big concern of a slowdown on China (which has been crucial to keep Brazil's economy alive and well as exporting commodities to China is a huge factor of Brazil's economy). There's also concern about the general state of the economy of Europe. Finally, Christine Lagarde made a pessimistic speech about Brazil yesterday that's not going well with foreign investors.

According to Datafolha 43% of the voters would never vote Dilma, while 34% would never vote Aécio. This stat is really scaring PTists, as basically for every Dilma voter there's a voter who'd never vote Dilma. So, unless Dilma can flip most undecideds on her favor (and there are few undecideds now), Dilma may be extremely close to her roof.

You mean to say the Brazilian stock market isn't completely an inverse function of Dilma's poll perfomance?

[Simfan34]

Alckmin must be really pissed now.

Actually he's been campaigning pretty hard for the last few days as Aecio made a firm commitment for the end of reelection.

Ughh!

[Simfan34]

Also, the PSDB is usually underpolled nationally.

One can hope.

[Simfan34]

Actually, when looking for the political future of Brazil, the economic debate will be hugely important, because Dilma swears she'll double down on the economic fundamentals that are making the economy tumble.

Thankfully it's the voters, and not the stock markets, who resolved this debate.

Ugh.

[Simfan34]

Chris Garman! I know him- sharp guy.