Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[politicus]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they dont vote Neves?

[politicus]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they dont vote Neves?

Dilma began her campaign in 2010 polling at 3%, so, as soon as the campaign starts, expect Neves to climb to 20-25% really fast.

OK, thats weird, but I suppose the low level of party affiliation accounts for that.

But to rephrase my main question. Does Silva have a chance? Is there any dynamic in which she becomes the anti-Dilma?

[politicus]

Brazilian presidential elections can only feasible be polled within some months before election day, due the complicated balance between ideological, class based, personal, alliance wise, media manipulated,  regional and machine oriented voting patterns.
Right now, it's time to build alliances, test tubing, discourse creation and maturation, playing defense and be wise on attacks.

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

Not at all; and there isn't. She became just a tool (this was clear at some point, in 2010, but most voters only realized It after election) and her ticket (and also her new - nonexistent - political movement) was basically a media creation. No serious party would be willing to support her.

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they don’t vote Neves?

They'll go anywhere big media tell them to go. Neves just doesn't have sufficient name recognition outside MG yet, and this could be a symptom that media magnates may be insecure of his candidacy.

Why is Alckmin called Chu-chu?

Chuchu = Chayote
It's an extremely watery-flavored veggie. The original pun was calling him a Chuchu popsicle, so strong tasted he is.

So who is Silva a "tool" for?

[politicus]

Kardecist?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiritism

3% of the Brazilian population is spiritualist (or Kardecist)

That's pretty crazy.

[politicus]

Rep. Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS) has been chosen as the running mate. Nice pick.

Apart from the background stuff Rod told us, what is Beto like policy wise?

[politicus]

The gay activists became angry with Marina Silva because she removed gay marriage from her program after the request of Reverend Silas Mafaia, in order to have his endorsement during the campaign. And of course, they hate a candidate backed by a religious who is not only against gay marriage but also consider homossexuality a "bad behavior".

This one of the biggest lies that has emerged in Brazil. Marina has changed her Governmental Program because that was not her personal belief. Anyone that has been following Marina's speeches, discussions and interviews will see that she NEVER endorsed gay marriage. She has been sometimes a little bit dubious, but her official position is that supports the Civil Union. In some sense, she is supporting Gay Marriage indirectly since the Judiciary System has granted Civil Union the same benefits of a Marriage. Unfortunately, there a bunch of radicals in the LGBT movement that are not capable of reading Marina's program, it offers support for Civil Union, it offers support for developing a law that fights homophobia and it is supportive of measures that make easier adoptions for gay couples. Regarding to Malafaia, despite of all the changes, he even mentioned that the words' essence were the same.

What appeals me the most is that leftist in Brazil are condemning Marina because she is a flip floper while Lula and Dilma are the best on doing this. Dilma was a proud support of legalizing abortion and now she says that she is not. Lula has made a 180o Change since 1989. During 2010, somedays before the 1st Round Election, Dilma's campaign changed her whole Governmental Program to a list of 13 points and not a single discussion has arisen from leftists in Brazil's.

Nope.
Dilma Roussef was not a proud supporter of legalization of abortion. She is neither liberal nor conservative in cultural wars, like same-sex marriage, anti-homophobia education, abortion, marijuana and elimination of religious objects in state offices. She doesn't care to these issues. She said she supported legalization of abortion in 2007 only because she was asked. It was just a personal opinion. It was not a part of her political activity.
The Workers Party (PT) moved from a radical left-wing party in 1980 to a social democrat party since 2002 through a slow movement. It was not a flip flop. PT was more moderate in 1989 than it was in 1980, more moderate in 1994 than in 1989, more moderate in 1998 than in 1994, more moderate in 2002 than in 1998...

Rising left wing parties moderating before and in the first years after they gain power is standard operating procedure all over the world, but that's different from what happened in 2010, which indeed seems like major  flip-floppping.

[politicus]

To Brazilian posters: If Marina did win, how would you rate her possibility of actually implementing environmentalist policies?
How green is she these days. Is the environment still a priority for her?

[politicus]

To Brazilian posters: If Marina did win, how would you rate her possibility of actually implementing environmentalist policies?
How green is she these days. Is the environment still a priority for her?

Marina Silva is not focusing her campaign on environment. She is in a battle against Aécio Neves for the right-wing votes. Environment is not a very popular issue among the kind of voter she is trying to get.

However, of course her program mentions environment. She pretends to create a "Brazilian Market of carbono emission".

This text explains the diferences between Marina's and Dilma's views on environment. It was published in a pro-Dilma site. It is in Portuguese.

http://www.cartamaior.com.br/?%2FEditoria%2FMeio-Ambiente%2FCupula-do-Clima-o-desencontro-entre-Dilma-e-Marina%2F3%2F31857

Well, I know she is going for the right wing vote, which was the background for my question. I am interested in 1) your evaluation of whether she still cares about those issues 2) if so, what is her chance of implementing anyhing "green" with the kind of congress she is likely to get?

[politicus]

Bovespa climbing over 2,5% today. Petrobras' stock skyrocketing 6%. I think Marina will regain traction on tonight's Datafolha.

Any good investment tips with the stocks jumping up and down like that? Which ones moves the most with the polls?

(sorry for going off topic)

[politicus]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

Not at all; and there isn't. She became just a tool (this was clear at some point, in 2010, but most voters only realized It after election) and her ticket (and also her new - nonexistent - political movement) was basically a media creation. No serious party would be willing to support her.

Just found this answer - a bit funny now that he was so adamant about it, but batmacumba hasn't been active since March, so I can't tease him with it.

Anyway, you guys don't mention Congress much. How are the polls? Is there any chance of more consolidation or will it remain fragmented?

[politicus]

I think it is fair that the low populated states are overrepresented in the Congress. But the Senate already does this job. Every state has three senators, no matter the population. It is understandable, considering that the senators represent the states, not the people.

Since the Senate already exists, it is not necessary the low populated states to be overrepresented and São Paulo to be underrepresented in the Chamber of Deputies too. I am against the minimum limit of 8 and the maximum limit of 70 legislators for each state. However, this rule will never change. It is necessary a constitutional amendment to change this rule, approved by 3/5 of the chambre and the senate. Since the North and the Northeast are favored by the overrepresentation of low populated states, a constitutional amendment like this will never be approved.

So no possibility of changing the constitution via a referendum under any circumstances?

[politicus]

But the referendum should be approved by the congress...

Also by a 3/5 majority? Or would a simple majority be enough?

Btw isn't it quite common that PR systems allow you to vote for either a party or a candidate? I never really thought about it, since we have always done so in Denmark  and I just assumed it was fairly normal. In a strong party system it doesn't weaken parties (and FPTP countries can obviously have quite strong party systems, even if everybody votes for a candidate). But I can see how it may inhibited the establishment of a strong party system.

[politicus]

Why is Marina collapsing? It must be more than just a bad debate performance.

[politicus]

It would be a big anticlimax with Aécio/Dilma now.

[politicus]

I searched and it seems noone has ever bothered to try to describe the Brazilian party system (which is understandable..). Do you know any external (non-Wikipedia) sources with a good overview?

[politicus]

Parties in the Chamber of Deputies (513)

Category A. (-12)
PT  70 (-18) Social Democrats
PMDB 66 (-5) centrist populists
PSDB 55 (+11) moderate Conservatives


Category B. (+13)
PP  37 (-3) Conservatives
PSD 37 (-8) centrist Liberals
PR 34 (+2) National Conservatives
PSB 34 (+10 ) Social Democrats
PTB  26 (+8) centrist populists
DEM 22 (-6) Conservatives
PRB  20 (+10) centrist populists

Category C. (-10)
PDT 19 (+1) Social Democrats
SD 16 (-6) Social Democrats
PSC 12 (-) SoCons/Christian Right
Pros 11 (-9) Social Democrats
PPS  10 (+4) Social Liberals


Category D. (0)
PCdoB 9 (-6) Communists
PV   8 (-) Greens
Psol  5 (+2) Left Socialists
PHS 4 (+4) Christian Democrats


Category E.
9 others 19 (+9)

So 28 parties, 9 of them with less than 4 seats. Talk about fragmentation.

The difference between the categories is of course arbitrary and parties that gained or lost a lot would have moved between the tiers, it was just to get an overview. But its clear that the big parties lost and the very small ones gained seats.

[politicus]

Main point was getting an overview of the level of fragmentation (big parties lose - small parties gain on average), not the ideology stuff, that was just for reference.

It's mostly a very simple left (SD)/right (Cons) distinction. "Populist centrist" is the term I have used for those with no ideology whatsoever (AFAIK).

The far left parties and Greens + the Christian Right seem to be fairly ideologically consistent, or is that not so?

[politicus]

Marina and Eduardo Campos' family will formally endorse Aecio this week according to Estadão.

It's widely believed Paulo Skaf will also endorse Aecio. That would be huge for Aecio.

Any news of what Marina will get out of this? Could she join his cabinet?

[politicus]

Just found a piece on right wing blogger Reinaldo Azevedo. 30 mio. unique visitors a year is pretty impressive. Is his influence still large? How is his line of attack against Dilma?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/andersonantunes/2013/11/25/a-conversation-with-reinaldo-azevedo-brazils-most-hated-and-widely-read-blogger/

http://veja.abril.com.br/blog/reinaldo/

[politicus]

Eduardo Jorge and the PV are officially endorsing Aecio. It'll be hard for them to convince their voters to go with Aecio, but if they manage to do this, that would be cool.

Wait, that seems pretty out the blue... What was the explanation?

Maybe related to this?

Marina and Eduardo Campos' family will formally endorse Aecio this week according to Estadão.

Any news of what Marina will get out of this? Could she join his cabinet?

It's certainly possible, but "Marinistas" claim some agreements on some policies would be the most important - mostly embracing a green development strategy + a pledge for political reform and the extinction of reelection. Aecio Neves claim to be in favor of doing all this, so theoretically there's fertile terrain for an agreement.

[politicus]

french wiki said results of chamber of deputies as are follow : (in order of %)

Is French wiki normally dependable with such things?
Their link to the source didn't work for me, but there are provincial results on http://divulga.tse.jus.br/oficial/index.html, so you can add those together (but I couldn't find a national total already calculated). The question is if those figures are finalized yet? Or still preliminary. I figured it would take weeks to finalize the result.

Anyway, very severe fragmentation obviusly. It will be even harder to get anything done.

[politicus]

by the way, is there a law to make obligations to political parties to have "party" at first name ?

I like the idea. In France, a lot of parties hides their lack of ideological point of view behind vague words like "rassembly", "union", "alliance", and so on (especially on the right)

In Brazil you just get a lot of pointless  ideological labels for parties that are either clientilistic pork barrel machines without any ideology or has the opposite of the one their name seems to indicate (or some mix of the two).

There are a few leftist outfits (incl. Greens) + PT where the name is appropriate, but not otherwise (perhaps Christian Social if social has the right connotations in Portuguese)

[politicus]

Aecio 46% x Dilma 44% according to Datafolha.

IBOPE has exactly the same numbers.

Praise be to God! The BOVESPA ought to be surging. But it's down 3%- why?

Why would it surge? Its a statistical tie.

[politicus]

On the other side, some of the attacks suffered by Dilma in 2010 were dirty. It is not fair to discuss if she is religious or not because this issue belongs to her private life. Other attacks were fair. For example, when it was told that she entered the university but did not write the thesis. Concerning this information, the voters have right to know. This issue belongs to her public life.

The religious beliefs of a presidential candidate are not a private matter.

[politicus]

On the other side, some of the attacks suffered by Dilma in 2010 were dirty. It is not fair to discuss if she is religious or not because this issue belongs to her private life. Other attacks were fair. For example, when it was told that she entered the university but did not write the thesis. Concerning this information, the voters have right to know. This issue belongs to her public life.

The religious beliefs of a presidential candidate are not a private matter.

Should be.

Why? Religious beliefs can affect policy making and they are an integral part of who that person is.