Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Sec. of State Superique]

It's too early to predict anything but we are going to obviously have a second round at least. In Brazil's History is very uncommon a president that fails to get reelected, though reelection was created on 97 anyway, but I think that Aécio and Eduardo have lot's of potential to grow.

Also, I'd like to say that this poll that you pointed out is from a polling organization that is not so well known in Brazil. For the purpose of more accurate polling, we should consider Ibope, Datafolha and CNT, those are the best ones!

[Sec. of State Superique]

In Brazil's History is very uncommon a president that fails to get reelected

AFAIK it's not only uncommon, it never happened.

Yes that is true. Even on the state and municipal level this is not common :/

[Sec. of State Superique]

Collor will have the fight for his life against Governor Vilela (PSDB) in senatorial election. I think that running for governorship would be a better path for him.
In Rio, Campos can get support of former governor Garotinho (PR).

That would be a shame ! Garotinho is one of the most populist, corrupt and hypocrite politician I've ever seen!

[Sec. of State Superique]

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they dont vote Neves?

I wouldn't say that Marina has great chances of being President, though She has some nice ideas. The only to go well in 2014 is creating a coalition of mid-size parties such as PDT, PC do B, PV or at least  the small socialist PSOL.

However, Neves and Campos are likely to pick up those other parties on theirs coalitions. PPS, PP, DEM and PTB are likely to support Neves, PDT, PPS, PMN could support both Campos and Aécio but it depends...

[Sec. of State Superique]

Why is Alckman called Chu-chu?

Chuchu means Cabbage, Actualy his nickname was Picolé de Chuchu, Cabbage Popsicle. He was a guy without any kind of charisma, he was not like Lula... Do you ever noticed how cabbage doesn't have any kind of taste...

[Sec. of State Superique]

Why is Alckman called Chu-chu?

Chuchu means Cabbage, Actualy his nickname was Picolé de Chuchu, Cabbage Popsicle. He was a guy without any kind of charisma, he was not like Lula... Do you ever noticed how cabbage doesn't have any kind of taste...

Cabbage? That's not what we call chuchu in Minas Gerais ;p

It's supposed to be "chayote" in English: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chayote

Haha That is it! I alwats have a problem translating chuchu in English but I think you could understand my explanation, couldn't  you?

[Sec. of State Superique]

Major news guys! Marina failed to create its own party (Rede Sustentabilidade) and decided to join on Governor Campos´Party, the Brazilian Socialist Party!

[Sec. of State Superique]

2. Evangelic conservatives who opposed gay marriage, abortion and legalization of marijuana

For what reasons such people voted for her?

Marina is an evangelic as well. Unlike most members of the Green Party, due to her religious belief, she prefered to remain in silence about those issues. Serra was failing to get votes and Dilma was seen by many conservatives as a pro-abortion pro-gay marriage candidate because many reverends said so. My sister's babysitter and my maid voted on Marina because she was a protestant. In the second round, they ended up voting on Dilma

[Sec. of State Superique]

A big maneuver is going to happen. Marina Silva is going to join PSB and can form an alliance with Campos. PSB received some notorious right-wingers in last times, like Paulo Bornhausen (son of Jorge Bornhausen) and Heráclito Fortes (one of DEM defeated senators by left-wing wave in 2010).

Point being Marina Silva is now seen as right-wing (courting reactionary evangelicals of late) or PSB accepting anyone (ideologically-vacant)?

PSB is accepting anyone because Eduardo Campos is obsessed about being President. He wants Marina to be VP, he wants to form a great coaliton (even if that means creating a non-ideological party) and he wants to be the Third Way that will finish second in the race.

Marina, as ways, didn't know really well what she would do after loosing the possibility of creating the #Rede. She considered the Popular Socialist Party (former Communist Party, similar ideology now of the UK Labour Party) but she prefered Campo's Party because she really wants new people in politics. She couldn't keep it with moralism and give up of her own party, she would be ignoring the 19 million that counted on her! She decided to join in the PSB but actually they are saying that they are forming a coalition. Basically, the Sustainability Net is a clandestine party inside the PSB and it's very likely that Marina will be Campos' VP after all.

There is only one candidature that was pretty damaged after that, and unfortunately it was Aécio Neves' one. Campos/Marina is stronger than Aécio/Any one else and it will be very difficult for him managing to go to the Second Round. His only chances are if what happened with Ciro Gomes (former PMDB, former PSDB, former PPS, former PSB - that he left after Campos gave up of endorsing Dilma) in 2002 happens with Campos! On that year, José Serra managed to go to the Second Round using Ciro's own failures (He said bad words frequently)  and comparing him to Fernando Collor de Mello ("Another fresh face from the Northeast?").

Take a look at Ciro's Collapse:

This could happen with Eduardo Campos as well, although he is pretty well liked by the media and even the right-wingers are not so happy about Aécio Neves!

[Sec. of State Superique]

Name Recognition:
Eduardo Campos -57%
Dilma Roussef - 99%
José Serra - 98%
Marina Silva - 88%
Aécio Neves - 78%

Serra is willing to make a Coup D'Etat on the PSDB but Aécio has much higher chances than Serra...

[Sec. of State Superique]

The numbers of White and NOTA aboves has been increasing significantly and this is sort of dangerous. Any vote that comes as a White Vote or as a NOTA will not be considered a valid vote. If this sort of vote doesn't reduce, Dilma will be the fist PT candidate to be elected in the first round.

However, I feel that we are going to see a strong PSOL candidature due to those very same NOTA in the Urban Centers. I could see them winning something around 5% to 11%.

[Sec. of State Superique]

The death of Eduardo Campos was terribly shocking. He was a politician with a great potential and also a good record in office. I wasn't intending to vote on him but even so I was pretty sad to watch the news calling him dead. He was only 49, he has 5 children and that was for me the worst part of it. His family and Brazil didn't deserve such terrible situation... Now, regarding to political speculations, I believe that now is a very hard moment to think politically and surely PSB and their coalition will wait some days until they fully announce what they will do...

[Sec. of State Superique]

It's now nearly certain Marina Silva will head the ticket. Congressman Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS), who was running for the Senate, will probably be her running mate.

Other important names are the Government Agenda Coordinator, Maurício Rands, the former National Integration Minister, Fernando Bezerra, and Congressman Júlio Salgado. Rands was, however, a member of PT until October of last year, Bezerra was a member of Dilma's Government and Salgado is not close to Marina, although very critical of President Lula.

There are rumors that Eduardo's widow Renata or even Eduardo's brother were considering to run as well, but those would be highly unlikely names...

What is certain is that the Vice Presidential candidate will be a member of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB).

[Sec. of State Superique]

I would be posting some of my own analysis during this election cycle, but I would like to wait until a new Datafolha and this IBOPE polls that will be made (Although I don't trust IBOPE and don't really believe that they are actually reliable anyway). Now those are going to be my votes:

President: Senator Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG)/ Senator Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-SP)
Governor: Governor Luiz Fernando "Pezao" (PMDB-RJ)
Senator: Fmr. Mayor César Maia (DEM-RJ)
Representative: Otávio Leite (PSDB-RJ)
State Representative: Luiz Paulo (PSDB-RJ)

It's very likely that I will get a meeting with Otávio Leite =)

[Sec. of State Superique]

Superique Analisys:

I personally hate Ibope's poll, I think they are not as trustable as Datafolha. They poll 8.000 less people than its main competitor and it usually makes more mistakes than the later. However, it's my duty to show the most Recent Ibope Poll:

PT's Strategy and Rejection (Datafolha and Ibope still show Marina with the lowest rejection)

The polls may come as good news for President Dilma but PT's strategy may backfire. Although Marina's rejection has risen from 11% on the 8th of August to 18% on the 10th of September, she is not even on her years highest (since on the April 6th she scored 21%) and she has one of the lowest number from all the candidates while Ms. Dilma has 33% (According to Datafolha, in that case). According to Ibope's polls, all candidates rejection ratings are much higher than Datafolha's one and despite all that, Marina is 16% behind Dilma.

Dilma and Aécio:

The President's campaign is using populist methods to use against Marina saying she represents the Banking System and that she is financed by Itaú, moreover they are trying to portrait the PSB's candidate as an inexperiente leader that won't work in Brazil's political environment and are comparing her to Collor and Jânio Quadros.

Aécio is going negative as well but using a different strategy. He is saying to the Brazilian People that he is the "Safe Alternative of Change" and trying to put Marina close to Dilma. This might explain why Marina has fallen 3% in the second round since her probable ally is not cooperating a lot with her. Something that worries some close partners of Marina is that Aécio is saying that if he looses this election, he will be in the oposition. His allies in the oposition, however, are not really following the same line: although not being official movements, "Geraldina" (Geraldo Alckmin+Marina) and "Marimar" (Marina + Marconi Perillo) are emerging respectively in the states of São Paulo and Goiás which worries a lot a Aéco and which are extremely importante for Marina if she wants to be in the second round and win the Presidency.

The Media and Marina:

Although some Brazilian leftist bloggers are trying to say that Veja is making Marina a victim in order to help her. I would say that this was just an unusual cover that is trying to show Dilma as a bad girl. Anyone that reads the article itself can see that they are not going nice with Marina.

Nonetheless, I might say that Marina has been a very strong candidate and very resilient to all the negative pressure on her. Folha de São Paulo has been a staunch enemy of her (Making publications that she is afraid of planes and cried due to PT attacks), leftist magazine Carta Capital is trying to portrait her as the Neoliberal Queen and rightist magazine Veja, sometimes, is also going negative but make an akward move yesterday.

The election is going to be seriously close but it will be a huge challenge for Dilma in the second round when Marina will have the same television time than her. Now, we are watching an unbalanced war, where Dilma has 10 minutes of Electoral Program and Marina has just 2 minutes, while Aécio has 4. The fight will be extremely challenging but I hope that we can see PT getting out of the Planalto in 2015.

[Sec. of State Superique]

The gay activists became angry with Marina Silva because she removed gay marriage from her program after the request of Reverend Silas Mafaia, in order to have his endorsement during the campaign. And of course, they hate a candidate backed by a religious who is not only against gay marriage but also consider homossexuality a "bad behavior".

This one of the biggest lies that has emerged in Brazil. Marina has changed her Governmental Program because that was not her personal belief. Anyone that has been following Marina's speeches, discussions and interviews will see that she NEVER endorsed gay marriage. She has been sometimes a little bit dubious, but her official position is that supports the Civil Union. In some sense, she is supporting Gay Marriage indirectly since the Judiciary System has granted Civil Union the same benefits of a Marriage. Unfortunately, there a bunch of radicals in the LGBT movement that are not capable of reading Marina's program, it offers support for Civil Union, it offers support for developing a law that fights homophobia and it is supportive of measures that make easier adoptions for gay couples. Regarding to Malafaia, despite of all the changes, he even mentioned that the words' essence were the same.

What appeals me the most is that leftist in Brazil are condemning Marina because she is a flip floper while Lula and Dilma are the best on doing this. Dilma was a proud support of legalizing abortion and now she says that she is not. Lula has made a 180o Change since 1989. During 2010, somedays before the 1st Round Election, Dilma's campaign changed her whole Governmental Program to a list of 13 points and not a single discussion has arisen from leftists in Brazils.

[Sec. of State Superique]

Realistically, what major differences would there be between a Marina presidency and a Dilma presidency, assuming that the PSB remains rather small in parliament?

Marina would follow a Macroeconomic Policy much more simillar to those of Mr. Lula's First Term and President FHC's Second Term. We can expect much more fiscal control and higher compromise with inflation control. Moreover, that is something that both Aécio and Marina would probably do, reduce the subsidies given to big companies via BNDES (a public bank), Marina has been highly critical of the billions spent on failed projects and this is clearly something that might change. Marina will also try to deal with politicians in a different way, she might want to change the way that Coalitions are managed in Brazil, instead of just dividing the ministries to each party, she may take a more "European" approach, presenting a coalition governmental plan. Furthermore, she will give a huge push for a Political Reform, something that Dilma says that she is interested on doing but is not. There are many other differences but those are the main ones...

[Sec. of State Superique]

Aécio is partially doing Dilma's job and stealing votes from Marina in the first round and making things worst for her in the second round.

Now I believe that Marina rejection is rising mainly due to PSDB voters. That's good for Aécio in the first round but if he is not able to turn things up, which I don't think he really can, he will probably find himself not being in the second round and being responsible for a rise in Marina's rejection, helping Dilma at the end.

[Sec. of State Superique]

To Brazilian posters: If Marina did win, how would you rate her possibility of actually implementing environmentalist policies?
How green is she these days. Is the environment still a priority for her?

Marina Silva is not focusing her campaign on environment. She is in a battle against Aécio Neves for the right-wing votes. Environment is not a very popular issue among the kind of voter she is trying to get.

However, of course her program mentions environment. She pretends to create a "Brazilian Market of carbono emission".

This text explains the diferences between Marina's and Dilma's views on environment. It was published in a pro-Dilma site. It is in Portuguese.

http://www.cartamaior.com.br/?%2FEditoria%2FMeio-Ambiente%2FCupula-do-Clima-o-desencontro-entre-Dilma-e-Marina%2F3%2F31857

Well, I know she is going for the right wing vote, which was the background for my question. I am interested in 1) your evaluation of whether she still cares about those issues 2) if so, what is her chance of implementing anyhing "green" with the kind of congress she is likely to get?

My humble opinion: No and no.

My opinion: Yes and no, it's not her top prority and she won't be able to do much with the largely conservative Congress that we have...

[Sec. of State Superique]

Bovespa climbing over 2,5% today. Petrobras' stock skyrocketing 6%. Itaú gaining 4,4%. I think Marina will regain traction on tonight's Datafolha.

Unfortunately that is not the case. Datafolha is showing Dilma with 40%, Marina with 27% and Aécio with 18% =(

[Sec. of State Superique]

Marcelo Crivella was endorsed by Anthony Garotinho today. Since Garotinho has a strong disapproval rating, this move was not seen as good way to start. Nevertheless, Crivella has shown some low rejection ratings and seems to be a difficult challenge for Pezão in Rio.A Datafolha Poll indicated Pezão beating Crivella by only two points (51% vs 49%).

[Sec. of State Superique]

Marina has delayed indefinitely her announcement. She's scared of the backlash she'll get from either choice.

You are oversimplifying things. She has a government plan and a compromise with her voters.