What Happened To The GOP in 2012

[IceSpear]

I think the biggest failure of Republicans in 2012 was not at the presidential level, but the Senate, though both cases represent the same problem.

In the Senate, Republicans lost in a lot of states they had no right to lose in during a fairly neutral presidential year.  Look at Missouri, look at Indiana; the fact that Republicans lost or failed to pick up these two seats is entirely their fault, they chose the horrible candidates in those states that then decided to go talk about rape.

It wasn't just that the Republicans were bad, the Democrats did all of the right things.  Montana and North Dakota featured very strong Democratic candidates prevailing where many thought they wouldn't.  The Democrat's victory in Missouri is partially due to McCaskill cleverly airing 'attack' adds helping Akin by calling him too conservative.

Agreed, it seems to be very understated just how great Democrats did in the Senate in 2012, probably because they "only" netted 2 seats. But that ignores the fact that they had no business even holding the Senate considering how favorable the map was for Republicans, much less gaining seats.

[barfbag]

A lot of money was spent on the presidential election as opposed to the House and Senate seats. We also had mishaps in MO which cost us. We'll get them next time.

[hopper]

A lot of money was spent on the presidential election as opposed to the House and Senate seats. We also had mishaps in MO which cost us. We'll get them next time.

Romney still won MO though even with the Akin factor.

[barfbag]

A lot of money was spent on the presidential election as opposed to the House and Senate seats. We also had mishaps in MO which cost us. We'll get them next time.

Romney still won MO though even with the Akin factor.

That's not what I meant. I meant Todd Akin's remarks hurt Romney and the Republican Party everywhere.

[hopper]

I was surprised Romney thought that he only thought "self-deport" meant only if Illegals(most Latino's) couldn't find a job that they would go back to their country. Hello: what that means is you are gonna break up a family. This is how Latino's think. I am surprised Romney and his campaign team did not know this. If they did not know this I don't what to say or those people should have never been running Romney's campaign. Between what I just said and Romney's GOTV website crashing I don't think his campaign team served him that well. Plus the pollster Stuart Stevens had the wrong polling info. I myself thought PPP and Nate Silver were oversampling Democrats but a pollster that is working for a campaign should know better than the average voter like myself.

I got the info on Romney's self-deport comment from Dan Balz's lecture on his book "Collision 2012"(Obama-Romney.) Dan Balz sat down with Romney for this book and Romney did talk Balz about the Election in 2012. You can see the hour lecture on C-Span the Book TV section of the website.

[hopper]

A lot of money was spent on the presidential election as opposed to the House and Senate seats. We also had mishaps in MO which cost us. We'll get them next time.

Romney still won MO though even with the Akin factor.

That's not what I meant. I meant Todd Akin's remarks hurt Romney and the Republican Party everywhere.

No Romney had his own comment about the abortion issue that it should be sent back to the states that's what hurt Romney not Akin's comments.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

[barfbag]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

[hopper]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

No the Republicans thought they would be a little more turnout than there was(hence I mentioned Romney's pollster thinking the same thing.) At the same time they underestimated minority turnout. 

Keep in mind White Women voted for Romney too as a block. Its minority women that Republicans have a major problem with as a voting block.

[barfbag]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

No the Republicans thought they would be a little more turnout than there was(hence I mentioned Romney's pollster thinking the same thing.) At the same time they underestimated minority turnout. 

Keep in mind White Women voted for Romney too as a block. Its minority women that Republicans have a major problem with as a voting block.

Yes that's true but we don't need to be dividing people by race all the time. We did underestimate minority turnout.

[opebo]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

Well, call a spade a spade, eh what?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama was picked again not because he was the best candidate but he was the safest candidate. People still don't like what he did on Wallstreet and tax reform package that tilted too much for the capital gains tax, but voters felt comfortable with him. Scared to put a Bain banker back in power. When economy wasn't benefitting GOP, the same mistake they are gonna make in 14 and 16 gonna rely on HCR to get elected.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

Well, call a spade a spade, eh what?

Barfbag is heavily oversimplifying things here.  While there are some racists within the GOP, some of their policies, even when they have a racially disparate impact, can be explained without using racism as the reason.  If you have a group of people who largely don't support your party, why bother about the impact your policies have on them?  Also, if there are ways to keep them from the polls, why not?  Not that being dismissing is good politics in the long term, even without the changing demographic situation.  But they can be explained as resulting from hardball politics rather than racial animus.

[barfbag]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

Well, call a spade a spade, eh what?

Barfbag is heavily oversimplifying things here.  While there are some racists within the GOP, some of their policies, even when they have a racially disparate impact, can be explained without using racism as the reason.  If you have a group of people who largely don't support your party, why bother about the impact your policies have on them?  Also, if there are ways to keep them from the polls, why not?  Not that being dismissing is good politics in the long term, even without the changing demographic situation.  But they can be explained as resulting from hardball politics rather than racial animus.

My point was that even if Republicans reach out to minorities, Democrats will find a reason to call them racists. Regardless of where Republicans stand on the issues, I don't think much can be done to reach out to minorities.

[Flake]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

Putting up the race card? An abnormally large share of the Republican vote was from white men. The white male vote was about 36% of the total vote, they voted for the Republican party by a margin of 70-30, which means it gave Mitt Romney 25.2% of the 47.1% of the vote he received. That means 53.5% of all Mitt Romney voters were white men. Also, no one will call them racists unless the candidates utter racial slurs, derogative terms, or tries to pass discriminating laws against people of color.

[hopper]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

Putting up the race card? An abnormally large share of the Republican vote was from white men. The white male vote was about 36% of the total vote, they voted for the Republican party by a margin of 70-30, which means it gave Mitt Romney 25.2% of the 47.1% of the vote he received. That means 53.5% of all Mitt Romney voters were white men. Also, no one will call them racists unless the candidates utter racial slurs, derogative terms, or tries to pass discriminating laws against people of color.

Keep in mind Mitt Romney won the white women vote too (not just the white man vote.) You guys on the D side of the ledger are quick to forget that. Yes the Republicans have a problem with the minority vote there is no secret there. You make like the whole Republican Party dislikes minorities but its not true.

[Non Swing Voter]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

Well, call a spade a spade, eh what?

Barfbag is heavily oversimplifying things here.  While there are some racists within the GOP, some of their policies, even when they have a racially disparate impact, can be explained without using racism as the reason.  If you have a group of people who largely don't support your party, why bother about the impact your policies have on them?  Also, if there are ways to keep them from the polls, why not?  Not that being dismissing is good politics in the long term, even without the changing demographic situation.  But they can be explained as resulting from hardball politics rather than racial animus.

My point was that even if Republicans reach out to minorities, Democrats will find a reason to call them racists. Regardless of where Republicans stand on the issues, I don't think much can be done to reach out to minorities.

It's laughable that you make posts like this while also making posts accusing minority voters of being racist and costing Mitt Romney the election.

Also, saying not "much can be done to reach out to minorities" is playing the race card in reverse.  Hope this helps.

[ag]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

Why wouldn't they test this prediction?

[Mordecai]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

No, they get called racists when their racism drives away the people who are trying to help them reach out to minorities, like Pablo Pantoja.

[sg0508]

The "white" card is correct and we saw it on election night.  The demographic problem is one the GOP brought on themselves.  In addition, they continue to have the "top 5%" label.

There was a single poll on election night that predicted the outcome.

"Do the candidate's policies support the rich, middle class or poor?".  I think 60%+ said Romney's supported the rich and over 2/3 said Obama's supported the middle class and poor.  Whether they do or don't is irrelevant.  In public, perception=reality. 

All you had to do is see that one poll and you knew the outcome without watching any returns.

[opebo]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

Why wouldn't they test this prediction?

Because 'reaching out to minorities' = alienating their racist core support.

[hopper]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

Why wouldn't they test this prediction?

Because 'reaching out to minorities' = alienating their racist core support.

I think that statement is over the line.

[opebo]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

Why wouldn't they test this prediction?

Because 'reaching out to minorities' = alienating their racist core support.

I think that statement is over the line.

'Over the line'?  Its the plain and obvious truth, hopper.  People have an us vs. them attitude, so if you try to reach out to the people they see as the enemy, they'll tend to support you less.  That's all.

[sg0508]

Again, I think it's pretty simple:

1) The obvious demographic problem discussed ad nauseum
2) The top 5% perception

The only reason the GOP holds as many offices as they do is because of the off-year elections where turnout is down.  If each election's turnout was up at the presidential level, forget it. 

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

The GOP didn't realize that White Men are declining as a share of the electorate and population.

There we go again with the left playing the race card. Even if Republicans reach out to minorities, they're still going to be called racists by the media and left.

Well, call a spade a spade, eh what?

Barfbag is heavily oversimplifying things here.  While there are some racists within the GOP, some of their policies, even when they have a racially disparate impact, can be explained without using racism as the reason.  If you have a group of people who largely don't support your party, why bother about the impact your policies have on them?  Also, if there are ways to keep them from the polls, why not?  Not that being dismissing is good politics in the long term, even without the changing demographic situation.  But they can be explained as resulting from hardball politics rather than racial animus.

My point was that even if Republicans reach out to minorities, Democrats will find a reason to call them racists. Regardless of where Republicans stand on the issues, I don't think much can be done to reach out to minorities.

Republicans have troubles wooing minorities because they can't resist the temptation to advocate things that minority groups (and blacks, especially) that they view as "survival issues"; issues that ensure that they will have some protection from racism rearing its head and denying them the ability to (A) survive economically, and (B) be able to defend themselves personally, as well as politically.  When the GOP seeks to dilute or repeal the Voting Rights Act, and couple this with Voter ID laws that have NEVER been an issue until Democrats began electing Presidents again, blacks become worried as to the real intent of the GOP (which has become the party of the Southern White Male).  The same can be said of the GOP's stance on immigration; it is viewed as an attack on Hispanics, and their families, and not just an enforcement matter against those here illegally.

There are a significant number of blacks and Hispanics who could, and would, be "religious right" voters, dependably Republican voters, if it were not for the civil rights and immigration issues that the GOP can't leave alone.  There is a significant black and Hispanic middle class that, aside from the Miami Cubans, are reliably Democratic; would this be true if the GOP could muzzle itself on "affirmative action" and "English is our official language"?  Are these issues really of such importance that Voter ID laws must be implemented in every GOP-governed state as a national initiative?  Is repeal of the Voting Rights Act such a key issue that it has to be out front?  Is illegal immigration REALLY the crisis it has been made out to be?  I don't think so, but the GOP now owns the voters most susceptible to demagoguery on these issues, and it's affected the way they are perceived.  The GOP is late in getting the memo that voting for a black candidate for a major office isn't a big deal anymore.  The reason they don't get a bigger share of the minority vote when there are many more minority voters who would agree with them than who currently vote for them, is that to appeal to their base, they have spent time on issues that do nothing but energize people who will vote for them anyway, and offend constituencies that they could, in time, cultivate as their own.