2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election

[RogueBeaver]

Ag: Or they'll just publish the names of Capriles voters with all the consequences that entails. Did it with the recall vote.

Apparently they'll just hold a pots-and-pans protest instead of a march.

Some slides he used in today's presser with examples of alleged fraud, H/T CC.

http://venezuelasomostodos.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Incidencias-del-proceso-electoral-14A.pdf

[RogueBeaver]

Worse than I thought: Maduro said "You won't go downtown to fill it with blood and death." Talked about 2002. We can probably rule out rubber bullets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-16/venezuela-faces-turmoil-as-maduro-foes-protest-victory-decree.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/venezuela-president-elect-warns-opposition-protests-are-death-wish

[ag]

So here are a few questions I have. Can somebody help?

1. It is now over 48 hours since the polls have closed. Where are the precinct-level returns? The CNE webpage has been impossible to access since the election day. The news sources report state-level results -and that's all. I can't even seem to find the municipal-level maps. Given that the official results are generated and reported ELECTRONICALLY, there must be an excel file or something of the sort somewhere. Is it publically available? To whom it is available, if it is not public?

2. In addition to the official precinct-level results, there was the "audit" of the 54% of the precincts. What were those precincts? Is there a list? Is it public? Where are the audit results - precinct-level or otherwise?

3. How is the randomization done to determine the 54% of the precincts to be recounted on the election night? Is the software/hardware used public? Has it been independently checked? In particular, is there any guarantee - I would take a word of a single qualified and informed independent observer as such a guarantee - that nobody can figure out which precincts would be recounted before the official results are reported?

3a. By the way, given that they actually count 54% of the precincts by hand, why the hell did they bother about computerizing the whole system to begin with? Ok, I get the control argument - properly used, the system can make manipulations harder. But 54% or 100% is not a major difference logistically. Why not insist on a 100% manual count on the election night?

BTW, I agree that any voto-por-voto recount now would be useless. It would only be easier to manipulate - the proper handcount should happen on election night.

3. I understand, that CNE BY LAW can only make an announcement of any numbers once the results are "irreversible". Who and why thought it desirable to prevent the public from observing the count as it is progressing? What was the justification advanced for introducing this legal norm?

4. What was the set of people who were monitoring the progress of the count in the CNE headquarters?

5. Though the progress of the count was never reported, there must be some record of which precincts reported at what time. Is that data available - anywhere, to anyone?

I am not, at this point, alleging outright counting fraud. I am just puzzling about the electoral system - and wondering about where to find the returns.  Anybody has any answers?

[RogueBeaver]

PSUV claiming they'll put actas on their website.

[ag]

PSUV claiming they'll put actas on their website.

Well, how nice of them.

But why in hell hasn't the CNE done it? They've invested a tonne of money in the computerized voting system - which is, at least, 54% useless. And they couldn't find a few bolivars to get the returns properly reported? Even the Russians put some numbers on the web the night of the election (true, many of those numbers they invent by repeatedly tossing the Election Commission Chairman's old socks upward and counting the number of times they stick to the ceiling - but, at least, they give us enough information to figure out what they do).

[RogueBeaver]

Unconfirmed media reports that there's an arrest warrant out for Capriles on charges of "incitement."

[ag]

So, it seems the CNE web page is available - but only from within Venezuela. I wish somebody could tell me exactly what is posted on it.

[Tender Branson]

So, it seems the CNE web page is available - but only from within Venezuela. I wish somebody could tell me exactly what is posted on it.

Hopefully Dave doesn't read your post and installs a similar version for election nights 2014/16.

[ag]

So, it seems the CNE web page is available - but only from within Venezuela. I wish somebody could tell me exactly what is posted on it.

Hopefully Dave doesn't read your post and installs a similar version for election nights 2014/16.

Election night was 3 days ago.

The thing is, I may well conclude that they did count correctly. But I need data to figure this out one way or another. I can't get data. The entire thing is done in a way that seems designed to exasperate. 

[RogueBeaver]

Confirmation that there's a warrant out for Capriles.

http://noticiasvenezuela.org/2013/04/leopoldo-lopez-confirma-ordenes-de-captura-contra-el-y-henrique-capriles/

Ag: This might be what you're looking for. Links on the bottom. H/T CaracasChronicles.

http://esdata.info/2013

[Tender Branson]

So, it seems the CNE web page is available - but only from within Venezuela. I wish somebody could tell me exactly what is posted on it.

Hopefully Dave doesn't read your post and installs a similar version for election nights 2014/16.

Election night was 3 days ago.

The thing is, I may well conclude that they did count correctly. But I need data to figure this out one way or another. I can't get data. The entire thing is done in a way that seems designed to exasperate. 

Well, you could use an IP-changing program that allows you to switch to a server from Venezuela to access the CNE, instead of using your Mexican IP.

[ag]

I am sufficiently computer-illiterate not to know how to do this. For the moment, if you could do this, could you just let me know what data are there? Do they have the precinct data - both the electronic count and the "audit"?

[RogueBeaver]

I am sufficiently computer-illiterate not to know how to do this.

I posted the link a couple of posts up: here's the data in Office and Excel format.

http://esdata.info/resultados/resultados_elecc_2013-04-14-v1.xlsx

http://esdata.info/resultados/resultados_elecc_2013-04-14-v1.ods

[ag]

Thanks a lot!

But this is only the official electronic result. Do they have the audit results posted - or, at least, the list of audited mesas?

[RogueBeaver]

Not as far as I know. I'd be surprised if the original-original data, or at least the incriminating part, still exists. Just a hunch on my part.

[ag]

Not as far as I know. I'd be surprised if the original-original data, or at least the incriminating part, still exists. Just a hunch on my part.

I am not asking for an incriminating part. I am asking for the list of mesas that were audited - the famous 54%. I am operating on the assumption that nobody would be stupid enough to play with those - I want, first, to figure out the certifiably honest part. What interests me at the moment is the very simple statistic: the oficial results just in the 54% of the mesas that have been audited. For the moment, I want to take them at face value.

[Bacon King]

So, it seems the CNE web page is available - but only from within Venezuela. I wish somebody could tell me exactly what is posted on it.

Are you certain? I'm connected through a Venezuelan proxy right now in an attempt to access the CNE website but the page still refuses to load.

edit, nevermind, switched to a different proxy and it was able to access it. A thorough search revealed that they haven't posted anything about the "verificación ciudadana" (i.e., the manual auditing of 54% of precincts) since they originally announced its implementation back in March.

[ag]

Pity. Anyway, just eyeballing the data do not seem overly strange. One would have to do some statistical tests, but, at least, it does not seem to be too blatant. For the moment, I will wait for more evidence before making any conclusions. I do think they have a circuit breaker somewhere, but I don't see any obvious evidence of it being employed this time.

[Famous Mortimer]

Man, this was a boring election.

[ag]

Man, this was a boring election.

Looks like a scary post-election. At this point, the relevant question is, when is it becoming a self-coup, I am afraid.

[RogueBeaver]

NYT reporting CNE will conduct an audit of voting machines... no independent institutions left in Venezuela, the battle's a political one.

[Bacon King]

NYT reporting CNE will conduct an audit of voting machines... no independent institutions left in Venezuela, the battle's a political one.

Hmm. Here's a thought:

We know Maduro is obviously the placeholder for the true successor to Chavez, just holding the presidency until the powers-that-be behind the scenes have time to coalesce around someone. Note that the Venezuelan Constitution allows the President to essentially replace the Vice President at will, by the way, so the handover wouldn't even be difficult at all if Maduro doesn't go rogue.

However, with the nuisance that Capriles has been causing and Maduro's increasingly erractic behavior, what if they decide it'd just be simpler to let Capriles win? This full audit might then be intentionally removing the pro-Maduro vote tampering (or, if Maduro's narrow victory was legitimate, fixing the results in favor of Capriles)?

Think about it. The PSUV has a huge majority in Parliament, so Capriles wouldn't accomplish anything. Given the extensive state control over the media, it'd be incredibly easy for the PSUV to drum up public opposition to Capriles and force a successful recall vote whenever they wanted. Maduro was picked as the placeholder because he was considered to be a soft-spoken an capable administrator-- given that he's clearly demonstrated this assessment was inaccurate, is it really a stretch to assume that PSUV leadership would pick a useless Capriles presidency to be preferable to an off-the-rails Maduro?

Not sure I even believe this myself, but it's a thought. It'd also explain why Capriles was summoned to meet with the Generals just before the results were announced, which as far as I know we never got an explanation for.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NYT reporting CNE will conduct an audit of voting machines... no independent institutions left in Venezuela, the battle's a political one.

Hmm. Here's a thought:

We know Maduro is obviously the placeholder for the true successor to Chavez, just holding the presidency until the powers-that-be behind the scenes have time to coalesce around someone. Note that the Venezuelan Constitution allows the President to essentially replace the Vice President at will, by the way, so the handover wouldn't even be difficult at all if Maduro doesn't go rogue.

However, with the nuisance that Capriles has been causing and Maduro's increasingly erractic behavior, what if they decide it'd just be simpler to let Capriles win? This full audit might then be intentionally removing the pro-Maduro vote tampering (or, if Maduro's narrow victory was legitimate, fixing the results in favor of Capriles)?

Think about it. The PSUV has a huge majority in Parliament, so Capriles wouldn't accomplish anything. Given the extensive state control over the media, it'd be incredibly easy for the PSUV to drum up public opposition to Capriles and force a successful recall vote whenever they wanted. Maduro was picked as the placeholder because he was considered to be a soft-spoken an capable administrator-- given that he's clearly demonstrated this assessment was inaccurate, is it really a stretch to assume that PSUV leadership would pick a useless Capriles presidency to be preferable to an off-the-rails Maduro?

Not sure I even believe this myself, but it's a thought. It'd also explain why Capriles was summoned to meet with the Generals just before the results were announced, which as far as I know we never got an explanation for.

I certainly hope you are right. It does indeed make little sense for the Chavist clique to so eagerly support Maduro if they thought of him as a placeholder only.

Still, it doesn't really make sense that they would announce Maduro's victory and then backtrack to give Capriles the spot instead? It would also be an admission that there has been fraud, and I think the regime would want to avoid that.

[minionofmidas]

So... the CNE has noticed by now that the opposition did not in fact have a coup prepared. Hope the government notices the same thing today.

[RogueBeaver]

They won't reverse the result. If they did push Maduro aside I'd assume either Adan Chavez, Cabello or Jorge whatisface would be their new choice. Perhaps a troika?