Who started the winning (or losing streak) for both parties in each state

[justfollowingtheelections]

The winning streak for Republicans in each state they won in 2012 started with the following candidates:

Romney: Indiana, North Carolina
George W. Bush: West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona
Dole: Georgia, Montana
Reagan: South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas
Nixon: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska

The winning streak for Democrats started with:

Obama: Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada
Kerry: New Hampshire
Clinton: Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Michigan, Illinois, California
Dukakis: Masachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii
Johnson: DC



And the losing streak for Republicans started with:

McCain: Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada
George H.W. Bush: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii
Ford: Minnesota
Goldwater: DC

And for Democrats:

Gore: West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona
Mondale: Georgia
McGovern: Texas
Humphrey: North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska
Johnson: South Carolina, Alabama
Kennedy: Mississippi

[justfollowingtheelections]

The break-down in net electoral votes for each candidates:

Romney: +26
McCain: -86
George W. Bush: +59
Dole: +19
George H.W. Bush: -233
Reagan: +62
Ford: -10
Nixon: +40
Goldwater: -3


Obama: +86
Kerry: +4
Gore: -59
Clinton: +152
Dukakis: +77
Mondale: -16
Carter: No impact in the long run
McGovern: -38
Humphrey: -56
Johnson: 3-18=-15
Kennedy: -6

I think the maps are interesting in showing how the current coalitions started and who had the greatest impact in their formation.

[justfollowingtheelections]

In 1960 John Kennedy loses Mississippi.  Carter would win there in '76, but lose in his 2nd presidential run.  MS was the Democrats' first loss in the South due to the Civil Rights issue (sorry Oldiesfreak).

In 1964 Johnson wins DC against Goldwater, but loses Alabama and South Carolina.  None of them have looked back since.  The Civil Rights Act has played the main role in this, and Johnson's words about losing the South for a generation were obviously wrong, since it has been almost 50 years since that election.  The Civil Rights Act is also the main reason DC and African-Americans have been so Democratic since.  Goldwater's opposition to Civil Rights is still hurting the Republican brand among this group.

In 1968 Humphrey loses NC, IN, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT, WY, ID, UT and AK. No Democrat has won these states since (some of them won them in their first run, but lost them in their second).

I'm not sure what the connection is, but it seems that Humphrey failed to connect with a lot of quiet, rural states, which I guess bought into Nixon's "law and order" and were not influenced much culturally by the counterculture movements of the '60s that changed politics in urban centers in later decades.  Could that be what makes these states so hostile to the Democratic party to this day?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Texas's D losing streak was started by Carter in 1980 (he won it in 1976)

[Franknburger]

In 1968 Humphrey loses NC, IN, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT, WY, ID, UT and AK. No Democrat has won these states since (some of them won them in their first run, but lost them in their second).

I'm not sure what the connection is, but it seems that Humphrey failed to connect with a lot of quiet, rural states, which I guess bought into Nixon's "law and order" and were not influenced much culturally by the counterculture movements of the '60s that changed politics in urban centers in later decades.  Could that be what makes these states so hostile to the Democratic party to this day?

Most of these have never been very friendly to Democrats. Before the 1964 Johnson landslide, the non-Southern states had at least three times in a row voted Republican (including voting for Nixon in 1960). ND, SD, NE, KS and IN also voted R in 1948, 1944 and 1940.
If there was any Democrat that could connect to these "quiet, rural states" , it was probably Humphrey, who grew up in rural South Dakota and started his political career from Minnesota. In fact, South Dakota and Indiana were among the few non-southern states that trended to him.

My guess is that the 'hostility' against Democrats started with Woodrow Wilson "he kept us out of war" in 1916, and the maps below show you, why that could have been so:



1990 census:


Remember that most of the German immigration into the Midwest took place in the late 19th century, so for these immigrants and their children, WW I literally meant fighting their brothers or cousins. They voted for Wilson hoping WW I participation could be avoided, and found themselves deceived.
Herbert Hoover as first German-American President, with his roots in the Midwest, and subsequently Pennsylvanian Dutch, Kansas-based Dwight D. Eisenhower, then cemented the loyalty to Republicans.

[Undecided Voter in the Midwest]

The two big realigning elections of recent times (well, my lifetime anyway) were 1980, when Reagan took the south from the Democrats for good (the signs of the "breakup" of the Solid South were apparent as early as '48 with the rise of Strom Thurmond, of course), and 1992, when Clinton took the northeast and left coast from the GOP while picking up Michigan and Illinois as well.

I don't know when we'll see another election like those again. My guess is: not for quite a while. The two Americas seem to be very deeply divided on almost all of the issues, and I don't see anyone from either party winning over any region that is currently trending to their opposition (e.g., Democrats rising again in the south, Republicans gaining ground in the northeast, etc) anytime soon.

[SPC]

Carter won Alabama and South Carolina in 1976.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Texas's D losing streak was started by Carter in 1980 (he won it in 1976)

Exactly, he won it in 1976 so you can't blame him for starting the streak.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Carter won Alabama and South Carolina in 1976.

Yes but he lost in 1980, his latest presidential run.  I explained that in one of my posts above.

[paulsonj72]

Minnesota has gone for the Democratic candidiate in every presidential election since 1976 and Carters 1st run and since 1952 had only gone republican 3 times(1952,1956, and 1972)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biggest change was in 2008 when co, nv, and nh became bellweathers like ohio. Along with pa, wisc,iowa, and nm enroute to 271 or 272.

[Undecided Voter in the Midwest]

Biggest change was in 2008 when co, nv, and nh became bellweathers like ohio. Along with pa, wisc,iowa, and nm enroute to 271 or 272.

NV's been a bellwether for a long time, with Jimmy Carter being the only winning candidate since 1912 not to carry the state. Funny that it doesn't really seem to have a reputation as a bellwether though, like Ohio does and Missouri used to.

[old timey villain]

Biggest change was in 2008 when co, nv, and nh became bellweathers like ohio. Along with pa, wisc,iowa, and nm enroute to 271 or 272.

NV's been a bellwether for a long time, with Jimmy Carter being the only winning candidate since 1912 not to carry the state. Funny that it doesn't really seem to have a reputation as a bellwether though, like Ohio does and Missouri used to.

However for years it was much more Republican than the nation as a whole. It's only recently become more Democratic overall.

[Undecided Voter in the Midwest]

Biggest change was in 2008 when co, nv, and nh became bellweathers like ohio. Along with pa, wisc,iowa, and nm enroute to 271 or 272.

NV's been a bellwether for a long time, with Jimmy Carter being the only winning candidate since 1912 not to carry the state. Funny that it doesn't really seem to have a reputation as a bellwether though, like Ohio does and Missouri used to.

However for years it was much more Republican than the nation as a whole. It's only recently become more Democratic overall.

That's a valid point.

[freepcrusher]

if you go by PVI, the picture becomes clearer. Here are the states with the longest running PVI streaks

RPVI states (last year they had a D PVI)
Wyoming and Kansas 1916
Indiana 1924
Nebraska 1932
North Dakota, Idaho 1936
Arizona, Utah 1948
Oklahoma 1956

DPVI states (last year they had an R PVI)
Pennsylvania 1948
Minnesota 1952
Rhode Island 1956
New York 1956
Massachusetts 1956

[pbrower2a]

The winning streak for Republicans in each state they won in 2012 started with the following candidates:

Romney: Indiana, North Carolina
George W. Bush: West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona
Dole: Georgia, Montana
Reagan: South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas
Nixon: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska

The winning streak for Democrats started with:

Obama: Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada
Kerry: New Hampshire
Clinton: Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Michigan, Illinois, California
Dukakis: Masachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii
Johnson: DC



And the losing streak for Republicans started with:

McCain: Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada
George H.W. Bush: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii
Ford: Minnesota
Goldwater: DC

And for Democrats:

Gore: West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona
Mondale: Georgia
McGovernCarter: Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas
Humphrey: North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska
Johnson: South Carolina, Alabama
Kennedy: Mississippi

Carter won Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas in 1976 and lost them all in 1980; the Democrats have never won any of them since then.

[TDAS04]

Keep in mind that in all of these states that have not gone Democratic since 1964, Goldwater performed better than his national average (except AK).  So it isn't surprising that Nixon won them, and have voted Republican since then.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

In 1960 John Kennedy loses Mississippi.  Carter would win there in '76, but lose in his 2nd presidential run.  MS was the Democrats' first loss in the South due to the Civil Rights issue (sorry Oldiesfreak).

In 1964 Johnson wins DC against Goldwater, but loses Alabama and South Carolina.  None of them have looked back since.  The Civil Rights Act has played the main role in this, and Johnson's words about losing the South for a generation were obviously wrong, since it has been almost 50 years since that election.  The Civil Rights Act is also the main reason DC and African-Americans have been so Democratic since.  Goldwater's opposition to Civil Rights is still hurting the Republican brand among this group.

In 1968 Humphrey loses NC, IN, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT, WY, ID, UT and AK. No Democrat has won these states since (some of them won them in their first run, but lost them in their second).

I'm not sure what the connection is, but it seems that Humphrey failed to connect with a lot of quiet, rural states, which I guess bought into Nixon's "law and order" and were not influenced much culturally by the counterculture movements of the '60s that changed politics in urban centers in later decades.  Could that be what makes these states so hostile to the Democratic party to this day?

It had nothing to do with civil rights.  It was because after WWII, a lot of people, and I mean a LOT, moved to the South from other parts of the country that were more pro-civil rights.  And the latest academic research shows that it was primarily economic issues, not race, that drove the shift..   Also, the religious conservatives' shift toward Republicans on abortion and gay marriage in the late 70s/early 80s had a lot to do with it too.  And the "law and order" thing wasn't driven by Nixon, it was driven by Wallace.  Nixon was a champion of civil rights throughout his life, especially as president.  In 1960, the South wasn't as strong for Kennedy as for previous Democratic nominees because of anti-Catholicism, not racism.  Finally, anti-Communism played a role, as well.

And for Democrats:

Kennedy: Mississippi

Carter carried Mississippi in 1976.

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

It had nothing to do with civil rights.  It was because after WWII, a lot of people, and I mean a LOT, moved to the South from other parts of the country that were more pro-civil rights.  And the latest academic research shows that it was primarily economic issues, not race, that drove the shift..   Also, the religious conservatives' shift toward Republicans on abortion and gay marriage in the late 70s/early 80s had a lot to do with it too.  And the "law and order" thing wasn't driven by Nixon, it was driven by Wallace.  Nixon was a champion of civil rights throughout his life, especially as president.  In 1960, the South wasn't as strong for Kennedy as for previous Democratic nominees because of anti-Catholicism, not racism.  Finally, anti-Communism played a role, as well.
Carter carried Mississippi in 1976.

First, gay marriage was definitely not an issue in the late 70's/early 80's, but abortion definitely did cause a shift.  But, Oldiesfreak definitely has a point: Nixon was a crusader for Civil Rights.  Nixon first implemented affirmative action and actually enforced school desegregation:  under Nixon, the percentage of blacks attending segregated schools went from 68% to 8%.  That sure doesn't sound like a good strategy for winning the South.  Also, Nixon's "tough on crime" stance was the same as the NAACP's:  in 1968, the Harlem NAACP was advocating mandatory sentences of 5 years for muggings, 15 years for rape, and 30 years for murder.  Tough-on-crime also appealed to the South, as it did for the whole country in 1972.

Racism didn't help Nixon in my opinion, but it did help the Dixiecrats, who would eventually flip R.  Nixon didn't carry the deep Southern states like MS, they were unpledged. 

[MATTROSE94]

It had nothing to do with civil rights.  It was because after WWII, a lot of people, and I mean a LOT, moved to the South from other parts of the country that were more pro-civil rights.  And the latest academic research shows that it was primarily economic issues, not race, that drove the shift..   Also, the religious conservatives' shift toward Republicans on abortion and gay marriage in the late 70s/early 80s had a lot to do with it too.  And the "law and order" thing wasn't driven by Nixon, it was driven by Wallace.  Nixon was a champion of civil rights throughout his life, especially as president.  In 1960, the South wasn't as strong for Kennedy as for previous Democratic nominees because of anti-Catholicism, not racism.  Finally, anti-Communism played a role, as well.
Carter carried Mississippi in 1976.

First, gay marriage was definitely not an issue in the late 70's/early 80's, but abortion definitely did cause a shift.  But, Oldiesfreak definitely has a point: Nixon was a crusader for Civil Rights.  Nixon first implemented affirmative action and actually enforced school desegregation:  under Nixon, the percentage of blacks attending segregated schools went from 68% to 8%.  That sure doesn't sound like a good strategy for winning the South.  Also, Nixon's "tough on crime" stance was the same as the NAACP's:  in 1968, the Harlem NAACP was advocating mandatory sentences of 5 years for muggings, 15 years for rape, and 30 years for murder.  Tough-on-crime also appealed to the South, as it did for the whole country in 1972.

Racism didn't help Nixon in my opinion, but it did help the Dixiecrats, who would eventually flip R.  Nixon didn't carry the deep Southern states like MS, they were unpledged. 

You do have a good point regarding Nixon and civil rights. While in 1960, Nixon carried some southern states such as Kentucky, Virginia, Tennesse and Florida and did fairly well in Texas, and North and South Carolina, the southern states that he did well in were comparatively moderate on the civil rights issue when compared to the deep south states of Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Racism didn't help Nixon in my opinion, but it did help the Dixiecrats, who would eventually flip R.  Nixon didn't carry the deep Southern states like MS, they were unpledged. 

Most of the Dixiecrats never switched parties, although some of the Dixiecrat voters might have later on issues other than race.