The Future Northern Virginia

[Del Tachi]

It has long been said that Hawaii has a pro-incumbent electoral bent.  At least part of the reason this is is because of the large defense industry on which the state relies.

Is it possible that a similar phenomenon exists or could develop in Northern Virginia and other D.C. suburbs?

This area is intricately tied to the federal government, and its not crazy to suppose that the people there (as the government continues to grow larger) will vote to preserve the status-quo and thus their job security, thus resulting a pro-incumbent political bias in the region. 

[Obamanation]

Hawaii is pro-incumbent because of Japanese people and NOVA is rapidly trending Dem. soon it will be indistinguishable from the MD DC suburbs.

[Blackacre]

That's less fo an incumbency streak and more of a "let's not vote for the party that's against the core of our economy" streak. The same reason why military areas vote Republican when Dems want to cut the military.

[Skill and Chance]

As others have suggested, if you want to know the future of NOVA, look at how the MD counties bordering DC vote.  Fairfax is demographically most similar to Montgomery.  It will probably settle out and stop trending when it gets to about 70D/30R in a neutral year.  Prince William and Loudoun probably end up voting like Howard, MD in the long run, roughly 60D/40R.  The big question is whether R's will still be competitive statewide when NOVA stops moving left. 

[pbrower2a]

Government employees and government employees know where their  incomes come from -- ultimately the taxpayer. They are unlikely to ever adopt the anti-tax attitudes of people in private industry with similar income. Making $50K as an IRS agent and making $50K as a tax accountant in private industry might put people on opposite sides of the political spectrum.

[ag]

BTW, one should take into account the Silver Line effect. When it is finished, big chunks of NOVA will be opened for settlement by the DC public transit commuter types. If I were a VA Republican, I would have done my best never to have let this project off the ground.

[Skill and Chance]

BTW, one should take into account the Silver Line effect. When it is finished, big chunks of NOVA will be opened for settlement by the DC public transit commuter types. If I were a VA Republican, I would have done my best never to have let this project off the ground.

That's a good point.  There are obvious ways that Republicans could win the SW back (appealing to libertarians and/or Hispanic voters) but there really isn't anything they can offer for federal employees who rely on public transit!