The Future Northern Virginia

[Skill and Chance]

As others have suggested, if you want to know the future of NOVA, look at how the MD counties bordering DC vote.  Fairfax is demographically most similar to Montgomery.  It will probably settle out and stop trending when it gets to about 70D/30R in a neutral year.  Prince William and Loudoun probably end up voting like Howard, MD in the long run, roughly 60D/40R.  The big question is whether R's will still be competitive statewide when NOVA stops moving left. 

[Skill and Chance]

BTW, one should take into account the Silver Line effect. When it is finished, big chunks of NOVA will be opened for settlement by the DC public transit commuter types. If I were a VA Republican, I would have done my best never to have let this project off the ground.

That's a good point.  There are obvious ways that Republicans could win the SW back (appealing to libertarians and/or Hispanic voters) but there really isn't anything they can offer for federal employees who rely on public transit!