Hurricane Katrina in 2004

[JRP1994]

Hurricane Katrina strikes the Gulf of Mexico in August of 2004, devastating New Orleans and much of the gulf. The Bush administration responds EXACTLY how it responded in real life.

Kerry and Edwards are the Democratic ticket, and the polling is exactly how it was in real life, up until Katrina hits. What happens next? Who wins the election? Discuss with maps.

[NHI]

There are two possibilities here.

1. The Bush Administration botches the response to this and Kerry pulls off a narrow win.

Kerry/Edwards: 284 (50%)

Bush/Cheney: 254 (48%)

2. The Bush Administration responds swiftly and promptly to the disaster and creates a quasi 'rallying around the flag' effect and Bush wins by a larger amount.

Bush/Cheney: 300 (51%)

Kerry/Edwards: 238 (47%)

[Undecided Voter in the Midwest]

Basically agree with NHI, though I think the first scenario would me much more likely than the second. Well, unless Bush's response to an election year Katrina had been more focused, for lack of a better term, and with much better and more effective photo ops (see: Obama and Hurricane Sandy) than his real life response to Katrina in '05, in which case I could see him possibly holding on to the WH.

[Mr. Morden]

Previous thread on this topic:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=44125.0