No Three-Fifths Compromise

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Does anybody have numbers for how the Presidential elections would have turned out had there not been the Three-Fifths Compromise, under both the Northern and Southern states' plans?

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

So are slaves counted as population or not?

[Blackacre]

So are slaves counted as population or not?

No.

[Mechaman]

So are slaves counted as population or not?

Southern Plan: slaves each count as a person.

Northern Plan: slaves don't count.

I believe that's how it goes.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Assuming the same number of Representatives per unit of apportionment population:

1790 Northern Plan
New York -1
Maryland -2
Virgina -6
Kentucky -1
North Carolina -2
South Carolina -2
Georgia -1

1790 Southern Plan
Maryland +1
Virginia +3
North Carolina +1
South Carolina +1

1796 Northern Plan: President John Adams (F) Vice President Thomas Pinckney (F)*
1796 Southern Plan: President Thomas Jefferson (R) Vice President John Adams (F)
1800 Northern Plan: President John Adams (F) Vice President Charles Pinckney (F)

* Under the 1796 Northern Plan, if the two electors that Maryland lost were both Federalist electors, it is possible that the Vice Presidential contest would have been decided in the Senate, but the Senate in the 6th Congress was solidly Federalist, so Pinckney still would have won.

I'll do more Censuses as I have time.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

1800 Northern Plan
Maryland -2
Virginia -6
North Carolina -2
South Carolina -2
Georgia -1
Kentucky -1

1800 Southern Plan
Maryland +1
Virginia +4
North Carolina +2
South Carolina +2
Tennessee +1

No presidential elections affected.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

My 1810 figures might be a little off.  I haven't found a source that separates out the Negro population based on whether they are free or slave, so I am using the same rough proportion as 1800.

1810 Northern Plan
Delaware -1
Georgia -2
Kentucky -1
Maryland -2
North Carolina -3
South Carolina -3
Virginia -7

1810 Southern Plan
Georgia +1
Kentucky +1
Louisiana +1
Maryland +1
New Jersey +1
New York +1
North Carolina +2
South Carolina +2
Tennessee +1
Virginia +5

(Note that Louisiana was admitted as a state after the original apportionment was done with 1 Representative, which was correct for the 1810 Census data and the 3/5 compromise. However, under the southern plan, it had the population for 2 Representatives.)

No presidential elections affected.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

1820 Northern Plan
Georgia -3
Kentucky -1
Louisiana -1
Maryland -3
North Carolina -3
South Carolina -3
Tennessee -1
Virginia -6 (maybe -7 depending on how few free blacks there were)

1820 Southern Plan
Alabama +1
Georgia +1
Kentucky +2
Maryland +1
North Carolina +2
South Carolina +1
Tennessee +1
Virginia +4

1824 Northern Presidential Election
Jackson 90
Adams 83
Clay 36
Crawford 32

With Speaker Clay among the three choices the House gets to choose from, I think it likely the House election is not settled on the first ballot, but I still don't see Jackson winning.  More than likely it is Adams, with Clay an outside possibility.

1824 Southern Presidential Election
Jackson 105
Adams 84
Crawford 46
Clay 39

Jackson does slightly better in the electoral college, but since Clay still throws his support behind Adams, Jackson won't win.   However, we may still see things go beyond the first ballot.  Maryland barely cast its vote for Adams in the actual House election and with an extra representative, it could well be that Maryland favors none of the three with a majority and thus its vote.  That would give Adams only 12 of the 24 States, leaving him one short.

1828 is unchanged unless a lengthier House election causes the corrupt bargain charge to not resonate with the voters, but I doubt it would have that effect.  If anything, it would make it stronger.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

1830 Northern Plan
Alabama -1
Georgia -3
Kentucky -2
Louisiana -1
Maryland -2
Mississippi -1
North Carolina -3
South Carolina -4
Tennessee -1
Virgina -6

1830 Southern Plan
Alabama +1
Georgia +1
Kentucky +1
Louisiana +1
Maryland +1
North Carolina +2
South Carolina +3
Tennessee +2
Virgina +4

1832 Northern Plan would have resulted in a tie for 3rd place instead of Floyd/Lee placing 3rd and Wirt/Ellmaker coming 4th since South Carolina and Vermont would have had equal electoral votes of seven each.

1836 Northern Plan would result in Richard Johnson being elected Vice President without requiring a Senate election.

1840 Northern Plan and the Southern Plan in all three elections would not affect the placements of the candidates