The 1,000 Districts Series: Brad Miller edition

[Miles]

Inspired by my first Brad Miller thread.

Draw a 1,000 district-sized CD that is designed to elect you.

Here are the numbers of CDs per state.

Geaux!

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd probably put together the most progressive parts of San Francisco. A district would be 300k in this scenario and SF is 800k, so it should be possible to draw a >90% Obama district.

[JerryArkansas]

Here is mine.  Lets me make mine in the northwest part of the state since I will be moving there after high school.

A more moderate district, and would be good for my moderate positions.

[Miles]

Ugh. I wish we had election data for AR.

[JerryArkansas]

I know, I would like to know how close that district would be irl

[Miles]

I didn't mean to turn this post into a lesson in New Orleans political geography, but thats how it ended up XD I was bored last night, so I waay over- analysed this!

My district ended up looking like the letter J. The core is in Orleans Parish while it has swaths on the western and southern sides into Jefferson Parish.



Statistics:
50.0/48.3 McCain
PVI: R+4
53.5/46.5 D Average
52.1% WVAP/ 31.8% BVAP

Both Orleans and Jefferson Parishes swung to Obama in 2012, so this could have very likely been a slight Obama district after last year.

Holding the district in the runoff would not be an issue for me. By far, the biggest problem for me personally would be the jungle primary, mostly because of the polarization. The Orleans precincts would have been 71/27 Obama while the Jefferson areas were 61/38 McCain.

My solution was to design an electorate that was as diverse as possible so I could have the benefit of a fractured field in the primary.

I've divided the district into 5 regions, all of which could field candidates in the primary:



Region I (Blue)
77/22 McCain
70/30 R
71% WVAP/ 9% BVAP
Percent of district: 25%

This is by far the reddest region of the district, which is based in Metairie. This would undoubtedly produce at least one Republican. I grew up around the eastern region of this area, so I could maybe get some crossover votes there. The presence of this section alone takes the overall result of the district from 59/40 Obama to 50/48 McCain.

Region II (Lime)
49/48 McCain
55/45 D
74% WVAP/ 14% BVAP
Percent of district: 10%

This is my base area; these are the white majority precincts in western Orleans Parish. The election result was pretty similar to the district as a whole. There are conservative whites in the core of this area, but I think I could get some good crossover support.

Region III (Purple)
91/8 Obama
93/7 D
15% WVAP/ 75% BVAP
Percent of district: 15%

These are the BVAP-majority precincts in New Orleans. I'm hoping both the northern and southern regions would each field black candidates to further split the electorate. If not, I'd like the black candidate to come from the southern/Mid City bloc; I could probably make inroads in the northern  purple precincts.

Region IV (Red)
69/29 Obama
72/28 D
63% WVAP/ 25 BVAP
Percent of district: 7%

I didn't know if I should make this its own region, but if a white liberal wanted to run, he'd have a (small) base here. If not, I think my Every Man A King economic views wold help me here.

Region V (Teal)
50/49 McCain
56/44 D
46% WVAP/ 37% BVAP
Percent of district: 43%

This is the largest segment of the district, based in the Westbank of Jefferson Parish. Electorally, its pretty similar to the district. Its a pretty racially diverse; both a white Republican and a black Democrat could run from here. The white voters are working class and socially conservative, a good match for me. If a Republican ran from here, they would also need to make inroads up in Metairie to be competitive district wide.

Also, I cut out most of southwestern Orleans Parish because:

- I don't want too many white liberals in this district. I put just enough of them in this district (in Region IV) to vote for me, but not enough to run an actual white liberal candidate.
- There is a bloc of wealthy Republican voters near the Uptown area; I'd rather working class Republicans over wealthy ones.
- Being an LSU man, I don't want Tulane in my district XD.

[Sol]

That's pretty cool man. You should post about the political geography of NOLA over on the "Describe the politics of an area" thread.

[JerryArkansas]

here is a redo of mine, I tried to clean it up a bit

[Miles]

For Jerry's, I got 59/38 Romney.

[Miles]

That's pretty cool man. You should post about the political geography of NOLA over on the "Describe the politics of an area" thread.

Yeah, maybe. I'd need to do a bit more research, but it could be neat.

[JerryArkansas]

For Jerry's, I got 59/38 Romney.

is that for the first or the second one

[Miles]

For Jerry's, I got 59/38 Romney.

is that for the first or the second one

The second, though I imagine they're about the same.

'How bout using Madison and Franklin Counties to connect Fort Smith and Fayetteville?



LOL, that also looks like a letter J.

[JerryArkansas]

that look better, I think that would be what I would do, and there is not to much republican areas from where a challenger would come from

[Miles]

that look better, I think that would be what I would do, and there is not to much republican areas from where a challenger would come from

Just by doing some quick math, the Madison/Franklin district would be a bit redder than your second district. It would be closer 60/37 Romney.

Third parties would have gotten about 3.25%. 'Pretty notable.

[JerryArkansas]

that look better, I think that would be what I would do, and there is not to much republican areas from where a challenger would come from

Just by doing some quick math, the Madison/Franklin district would be a bit redder than your second district. It would be closer 60/37 Romney.

True, but I think that I might have enough cross party support to pull out a win in a primary, and in the general.

[JerryArkansas]

here is a liberal district that would not elect me, but is still pretty cool looking

[Miles]

This is what I drew for Idaho Blue Dog Dem.

Its a tidy R+5 seat based around western Boise.

[muon2]

If you are really self-gerrymandering, you should also cut out any existing Congressmen to avoid competition.

[Miles]

If you are really self-gerrymandering, you should also cut out any existing Congressmen to avoid competition.

Well, with 1,000 districts you would also have more leeway with that as opposed to 435.

[JerryArkansas]

here is one with both of my home towns in it

Nice and gerrymandered for me

[muon2]

here is one with both of my home towns in it

Nice and gerrymandered for me

I assume that there's a nice little gap between your district and OK so that the rest of the state could still be divided.

[JerryArkansas]

I assume that there's a nice little gap between your district and OK so that the rest of the state could still be divided.

of course

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Miles, what's the most Democratic district you can come up with using at least part of Lancaster County, PA (as well as at least one neighboring county, presumably)?

[muon2]

Miles, what's the most Democratic district you can come up with using at least part of Lancaster County, PA (as well as at least one neighboring county, presumably)?

How much do you require? Your request is easier if you specify a specific town to include. You also may want some demographic constraints. It's not hard to run a narrow strip from Lancaster Co to West Philly that is over 90% for Obama, almost 90% Dem and over 70% black.

[Miles]

How 'bout something like this:



Would 56.0/43.2 Obama be blue enough?

I had to go into York to pick up Democratic voters, but the population split of the district is tilted about 66/34 in favor of Lancaster County.