Ohio Megathread

[LeBron]

^^Awesome news on top of Chuck Todd calling John Kasich today on his show one of the top 5 most vulnerable GOP incumbent Governor's up in 2014.

For those who don't know, Kearny also owns a very minority-friendly firm, is great with financing and fundraising, is a good friend of the Obama Family, and has been known to go across the aisle in the Ohio Senate and work with the Republicans.

Perhaps the most important part of this though is balancing the ticket very well which I definitely have to hand to FitzGerald. With the help of fellow State Sen. Nina Turner, the African Americans will come out big for them especially after Kasich's controversial statement awhile back after instituting an all-white Cabinet that he didn't need "you people." Then of course, there's the local aspect part of it because FitzGerald is not well-known outside of Cuyahoga County and this Lt. Governor pick could help bring out a lot of vote from Cuyahoga & Hamilton which may even result in FitzGerald carrying Hamilton County.

Kasich is also starting to lose the state tons of jobs especially in the southeast down where Strickland won primarily and something widely unpopular arising is whether or not Kasich will sign onto right-to-work laws, a 6 week abortion ban, or several voting restrictions. Pick any one of those three that get signed into law. Just one, and you got a FitzGerald advantage.

I have the utmost dislike for Nina Turner. She's just a media-whore, but without the charm of someone like Chuck Schumer. She just says controversial thing on national television just to say them.

She does it to gain support and increase voter knowledge of the issues and more importantly her and what she stands for. Plus Ed Schultz loves having her on and it's really a great way nationwide to spread the message about what's happening here in Ohio. She's also the Minority Whip in the Ohio Senate so that coincides with FitzGerald's pick of the Minority Leader. Just like in Kansas, only the top statewide Democrats can really help him in this.

Keep in mind to, she's running for her political career to just like FitzGerald is. Both Kearney and Turner are up for re-election next year also in the State Senate and won't be able to run for re-election. So this race is everything for her and she only trails Jon Husted, the incumbent Republican Secretary of State, by 1 point 37-36. So all of these races, with the exception of Attorney General, are winnable.

[Zioneer]

Excellent; what else do you know about Kearny?

[Badger]

^^Awesome news on top of Chuck Todd calling John Kasich today on his show one of the top 5 most vulnerable GOP incumbent Governor's up in 2014.

For those who don't know, Kearny also owns a very minority-friendly firm, is great with financing and fundraising, is a good friend of the Obama Family, and has been known to go across the aisle in the Ohio Senate and work with the Republicans.

Perhaps the most important part of this though is balancing the ticket very well which I definitely have to hand to FitzGerald. With the help of fellow State Sen. Nina Turner, the African Americans will come out big for them especially after Kasich's controversial statement awhile back after instituting an all-white Cabinet that he didn't need "you people." Then of course, there's the local aspect part of it because FitzGerald is not well-known outside of Cuyahoga County and this Lt. Governor pick could help bring out a lot of vote from Cuyahoga & Hamilton which may even result in FitzGerald carrying Hamilton County.

Kasich is also starting to lose the state tons of jobs especially in the southeast down where Strickland won primarily and something widely unpopular arising is whether or not Kasich will sign onto right-to-work laws, a 6 week abortion ban, or several voting restrictions. Pick any one of those three that get signed into law. Just one, and you got a FitzGerald advantage.

Please. close to 90% of voters won't recall what the LG candidate's names are on election day given the utter do-nothing nature of the post. This'll help with his fundraising connections, but in terms of turnout it'll do little outside Keaney's senate district.

[LeBron]

^^Awesome news on top of Chuck Todd calling John Kasich today on his show one of the top 5 most vulnerable GOP incumbent Governor's up in 2014.

For those who don't know, Kearny also owns a very minority-friendly firm, is great with financing and fundraising, is a good friend of the Obama Family, and has been known to go across the aisle in the Ohio Senate and work with the Republicans.

Perhaps the most important part of this though is balancing the ticket very well which I definitely have to hand to FitzGerald. With the help of fellow State Sen. Nina Turner, the African Americans will come out big for them especially after Kasich's controversial statement awhile back after instituting an all-white Cabinet that he didn't need "you people." Then of course, there's the local aspect part of it because FitzGerald is not well-known outside of Cuyahoga County and this Lt. Governor pick could help bring out a lot of vote from Cuyahoga & Hamilton which may even result in FitzGerald carrying Hamilton County.

Kasich is also starting to lose the state tons of jobs especially in the southeast down where Strickland won primarily and something widely unpopular arising is whether or not Kasich will sign onto right-to-work laws, a 6 week abortion ban, or several voting restrictions. Pick any one of those three that get signed into law. Just one, and you got a FitzGerald advantage.

Please. close to 90% of voters won't recall what the LG candidate's names are on election day given the utter do-nothing nature of the post. This'll help with his fundraising connections, but in terms of turnout it'll do little outside Keaney's senate district.

Even if Ohio Republicans were to make that case, FitzGerald still has Cincinnati backups. He's got David Pepper, the former 2010 Ohio Auditor nominee and Hamilton County Commissioner running for the Attorney General's seat. You guys could easily back this up as well that little know who Pepper is and DeWine will decimate him, but for one thing, DeWine hasn't even announced if he's running or not plus we have ANOTHER backup to from Cincinnati who's probably the best. Obviously, State Rep. Connie Pillich who's doing the best in the polls now against Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel 47-43. Then we also have State Rep. John Patrick Carney from Columbus running for State Auditor so that major city is covered and of course, we have FitzGerald and Turner from the Cleveland area.

Another thing to note, FitzGerald did something interesting that may have been hard to do given the quality candidates he's running with. He's of course a white male Roman Catholic, Eric Kearney who's an African American male, Connie Pillich who's' a white female, and Nina Turner who's an African American female. If that doesn't bring out the minority and women vote, I don't know what will.

And while the LG does essentially do nothing, you never know who can get lucky with that position. Just a decade ago, after George Voinovich never finished out his second term as Governor to become Senator, his Lt. Governor, Nancy Hollister, became Governor for about two weeks. Even Mary Taylor, whether Kasich falls or not, she'll probably be considered a top potential candidate for the Republican nomination in 2018. So the position isn't just for paparazzi.

[Badger]

^^Awesome news on top of Chuck Todd calling John Kasich today on his show one of the top 5 most vulnerable GOP incumbent Governor's up in 2014.

For those who don't know, Kearny also owns a very minority-friendly firm, is great with financing and fundraising, is a good friend of the Obama Family, and has been known to go across the aisle in the Ohio Senate and work with the Republicans.

Perhaps the most important part of this though is balancing the ticket very well which I definitely have to hand to FitzGerald. With the help of fellow State Sen. Nina Turner, the African Americans will come out big for them especially after Kasich's controversial statement awhile back after instituting an all-white Cabinet that he didn't need "you people." Then of course, there's the local aspect part of it because FitzGerald is not well-known outside of Cuyahoga County and this Lt. Governor pick could help bring out a lot of vote from Cuyahoga & Hamilton which may even result in FitzGerald carrying Hamilton County.

Kasich is also starting to lose the state tons of jobs especially in the southeast down where Strickland won primarily and something widely unpopular arising is whether or not Kasich will sign onto right-to-work laws, a 6 week abortion ban, or several voting restrictions. Pick any one of those three that get signed into law. Just one, and you got a FitzGerald advantage.

Please. close to 90% of voters won't recall what the LG candidate's names are on election day given the utter do-nothing nature of the post. This'll help with his fundraising connections, but in terms of turnout it'll do little outside Keaney's senate district.

Even if Ohio Republicans were to make that case, FitzGerald still has Cincinnati backups. He's got David Pepper, the former 2010 Ohio Auditor nominee and Hamilton County Commissioner running for the Attorney General's seat. You guys could easily back this up as well that little know who Pepper is and DeWine will decimate him, but for one thing, DeWine hasn't even announced if he's running or not plus we have ANOTHER backup to from Cincinnati who's probably the best. Obviously, State Rep. Connie Pillich who's doing the best in the polls now against Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel 47-43. Then we also have State Rep. John Patrick Carney from Columbus running for State Auditor so that major city is covered and of course, we have FitzGerald and Turner from the Cleveland area.

Another thing to note, FitzGerald did something interesting that may have been hard to do given the quality candidates he's running with. He's of course a white male Roman Catholic, Eric Kearney who's an African American male, Connie Pillich who's' a white female, and Nina Turner who's an African American female. If that doesn't bring out the minority and women vote, I don't know what will.

And while the LG does essentially do nothing, you never know who can get lucky with that position. Just a decade ago, after George Voinovich never finished out his second term as Governor to become Senator, his Lt. Governor, Nancy Hollister, became Governor for about two weeks. Even Mary Taylor, whether Kasich falls or not, she'll probably be considered a top potential candidate for the Republican nomination in 2018. So the position isn't just for paparazzi.

I'm not denying that Pepper, or the other downballot Dem state candidates, don't all have a shot. The races will largely go within a couple either way of the gov results, with the caveat that Yost tentatively appears the most secure of the GOP incumbants, while Mandel appears the weakest. Nor am I saying the Dems didn't do a good job at getting geographic and demographic balance in their statewide ticket.

What I am saying is that the effect of (e.g.) a woman or African-American candidate running for relatively little-followed statewide races (especially LG) won't do much for turnout.

[Miles]

Fudge endorsed Fitz. It took her long enough.

[LeBron]

That leaves Representatives Joyce Beatty (D) and Tim Ryan (D) then who have yet to officially endorse FitzGerald which isn't surprising since those are the only two House Democrats in Ohio not within Cuyahoga County.

At this point though, FitzGerald doesn't really even need to worry about more large endorsements from the north because he's already over the top fine in this area, but he really needs to get some ads out and running across the state because sooner or later Kasich will start his attacks on his Democratic opponent. It all depends who comes first.

[Maxwell]

With Fitzgerald's name recognition low at the moment, the key is for Kasich to define Fitzgerald, and define him quick. Kasich I think is favored thus far, but if he fails in that department, Fitzgerald could very well beat him.

Saying obvious things.

[Miles]

It doesn't seem like Mayor Coleman is in a rush to endorse Fitz, either.

[TJ in Oregon]

If Kearney does end up having an effect, it might not be a good one for FitzGerald. I'm not sure it actually matters who the Lt. Gubernatorial candidate is anyway, but having a million dollars in tax liens can't help.

[Miles]

To put it mildly, I'm less than impressed with FitzGerald's skills as a politician.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

With Fitzgerald's name recognition low at the moment, the key is for Kasich to define Fitzgerald, and define him quick. Kasich I think is favored thus far, but if he fails in that department, Fitzgerald could very well beat him.

Saying obvious things.

Sadly, Fitzgerald doesn't stand much of a chance.  We could pick up Treasurer and Auditor, but that's it as far as statewide offices go.

[TJ in Oregon]

With Fitzgerald's name recognition low at the moment, the key is for Kasich to define Fitzgerald, and define him quick. Kasich I think is favored thus far, but if he fails in that department, Fitzgerald could very well beat him.

Saying obvious things.

Sadly, Fitzgerald doesn't stand much of a chance.  We could pick up Treasurer and Auditor, but that's it as far as statewide offices go.

With a different candidate I think you guys would have a chance at Secretary of State too, though not with Nina Turner running. I also doubt Carney can be elected Auditor after his "haphazard" comments. Of course there is still Josh Mandel...

[LeBron]

With Fitzgerald's name recognition low at the moment, the key is for Kasich to define Fitzgerald, and define him quick. Kasich I think is favored thus far, but if he fails in that department, Fitzgerald could very well beat him.

Saying obvious things.

Sadly, Fitzgerald doesn't stand much of a chance.  We could pick up Treasurer and Auditor, but that's it as far as statewide offices go.

With a different candidate I think you guys would have a chance at Secretary of State too, though not with Nina Turner running. I also doubt Carney can be elected Auditor after his "haphazard" comments. Of course there is still Josh Mandel...

Don't forget though, anything can happen in the next 11 months. About 6 months before the 2010 election, Strickland had a 55% approval, but by election time it was down in the 30s. Part of the reason was a very high, but decreasing unemployment rate throughout that year. Kasich himself can often be related  to this situation because our unemployment is 7.5% (only 2% less than the unemployment rate at Strickland's loss) and some polls are saying he's doing well with a 52% approval while others are saying he's really low in the water at 37%.

Now that doesn't mean it will be an easy task to defeat Kasich. FitzGerald not only needs to raise money to get his name known everywhere, but will have to raise money on statewide attack ads like this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wR_XOjT35Dg

^^If he got that on our TVs, this would be a race. Now in terms of who's likely to fall to who's not:

1) Treasurer Josh Mandel - Tossup
2 & 3) Governor John Kasich/Lt. Governor Mary Taylor - Tossup (I'm taking the PPP poll into account)
4) Secretary of State Jon A. Husted - Lean R
5) State Auditor Dave Yost - Likely R
6) Attorney General Mike DeWine  - Safe R (If he runs)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

With Fitzgerald's name recognition low at the moment, the key is for Kasich to define Fitzgerald, and define him quick. Kasich I think is favored thus far, but if he fails in that department, Fitzgerald could very well beat him.

Saying obvious things.

Sadly, Fitzgerald doesn't stand much of a chance.  We could pick up Treasurer and Auditor, but that's it as far as statewide offices go.

With a different candidate I think you guys would have a chance at Secretary of State too, though not with Nina Turner running. I also doubt Carney can be elected Auditor after his "haphazard" comments. Of course there is still Josh Mandel...

Don't forget though, anything can happen in the next 11 months. About 6 months before the 2010 election, Strickland had a 55% approval, but by election time it was down in the 30s. Part of the reason was a very high, but decreasing unemployment rate throughout that year. Kasich himself can often be related  to this situation because our unemployment is 7.5% (only 2% less than the unemployment rate at Strickland's loss) and some polls are saying he's doing well with a 52% approval while others are saying he's really low in the water at 37%.

Now that doesn't mean it will be an easy task to defeat Kasich. FitzGerald not only needs to raise money to get his name known everywhere, but will have to raise money on statewide attack ads like this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wR_XOjT35Dg

^^If he got that on our TVs, this would be a race. Now in terms of who's likely to fall to who's not:

1) Treasurer Josh Mandel - Tossup
2 & 3) Governor John Kasich/Lt. Governor Mary Taylor - Tossup (I'm taking the PPP poll into account)
4) Secretary of State Jon A. Husted - Lean R
5) State Auditor Dave Yost - Likely R
6) Attorney General Mike DeWine  - Safe R (If he runs)

Treasurer - Lean D
Auditor - Tossup
Governor/LG - Likely R
Attorney General - Safe R
Secretary of State - Safe R makes the race sound more competative than it really is

[TJ in Oregon]

I'd say it's:

Treasurer - Lean D
Governor/Lt. Gov. - Lean R
Auditor - Likely R
Secretary of State - Likely R
Attorney General - Safe R

Incidentally, I think the Treasurer race hinges on how close the Gubernatorial race is. If FitzGerald wins or Kasich wins by fewer than 4 points, I think Mandel loses to Pillich, but I think if Kasich wins by more than 4 Mandel will hang on.

Husted and Yost are safe unless there's a Democratic wave or a scandal, while I think DeWine would survive a wave and only loses if he's caught in a scandal.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say it's:

Treasurer - Lean D
Governor/Lt. Gov. - Lean R
Auditor - Likely R
Secretary of State - Likely R
Attorney General - Safe R

Incidentally, I think the Treasurer race hinges on how close the Gubernatorial race is. If FitzGerald wins or Kasich wins by fewer than 4 points, I think Mandel loses to Pillich, but I think if Kasich wins by more than 4 Mandel will hang on.

Husted and Yost are safe unless there's a Democratic wave or a scandal, while I think DeWine would survive a wave and only loses if he's caught in a scandal.

I'd argue that Carney is a pretty strong candidate while Yost is a rather weak incumbent. 

[LeBron]

I'd say it's:

Treasurer - Lean D
Governor/Lt. Gov. - Lean R
Auditor - Likely R
Secretary of State - Likely R
Attorney General - Safe R

Incidentally, I think the Treasurer race hinges on how close the Gubernatorial race is. If FitzGerald wins or Kasich wins by fewer than 4 points, I think Mandel loses to Pillich, but I think if Kasich wins by more than 4 Mandel will hang on.

Husted and Yost are safe unless there's a Democratic wave or a scandal, while I think DeWine would survive a wave and only loses if he's caught in a scandal.

I'd argue that Carney is a pretty strong candidate while Yost is a rather weak incumbent. 

That seat is pretty inelastic though. Even in 2006 during the Democratic wave of Ohio executive state offices, State Auditor was the only race we didn't win. I wouldn't imagine many Ohioans care much about this seat either given it's a down ballot race and a position that really doesn't do much just like Lt. Governor.

And I'll definitely agree on AG. Pepper stands practically zero chance of defeating DeWine and it's simply because not only is Pepper a weak candidate, but DeWine is well-known, popular, and distances himself away from the Kasich Administration.

But Secretary of State while it favors Husted, is not a safe seat. The last polling done on this seat had Husted only up one point, so highly depending on how Kasich Administration does in the next year in regards to the economy and with these voting reforms, a lot could be blamed on Husted and Turner can win if Ohio's shift in the race at least tilts Democratic in the next year.

I'll also agree on Mandel's race perhaps favoring Pillich considering she's four and people still hate Mandel from last year, but if the Democrat is favored in the Treasurer race, I would call the Governor race favoring nobody because Kasich is close to, but not as toxic as Mandel.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say it's:

Treasurer - Lean D
Governor/Lt. Gov. - Lean R
Auditor - Likely R
Secretary of State - Likely R
Attorney General - Safe R

Incidentally, I think the Treasurer race hinges on how close the Gubernatorial race is. If FitzGerald wins or Kasich wins by fewer than 4 points, I think Mandel loses to Pillich, but I think if Kasich wins by more than 4 Mandel will hang on.

Husted and Yost are safe unless there's a Democratic wave or a scandal, while I think DeWine would survive a wave and only loses if he's caught in a scandal.

I'd argue that Carney is a pretty strong candidate while Yost is a rather weak incumbent. 

That seat is pretty inelastic though. Even in 2006 during the Democratic wave of Ohio executive state offices, State Auditor was the only race we didn't win. I wouldn't imagine many Ohioans care much about this seat either given it's a down ballot race and a position that really doesn't do much just like Lt. Governor.

And I'll definitely agree on AG. Pepper stands practically zero chance of defeating DeWine and it's simply because not only is Pepper a weak candidate, but DeWine is well-known, popular, and distances himself away from the Kasich Administration.

But Secretary of State while it favors Husted, is not a safe seat. The last polling done on this seat had Husted only up one point, so highly depending on how Kasich Administration does in the next year in regards to the economy and with these voting reforms, a lot could be blamed on Husted and Turner can win if Ohio's shift in the race at least tilts Democratic in the next year.

I'll also agree on Mandel's race perhaps favoring Pillich considering she's four and people still hate Mandel from last year, but if the Democrat is favored in the Treasurer race, I would call the Governor race favoring nobody because Kasich is close to, but not as toxic as Mandel.

I don't think anyone could possibly be close to how toxic Mandel is right now   Kasich isn't hated, truth be told   I'd argue we ran a poor candidate for Auditor in 2006 and regarding Secretary of State, my rating stems from how poor a fit Nina Turner is for a statewide race in Ohio rather from Husted being so strong (plus that poll showed Fitzgerald tied with Kasich, IIRC, so take it with a big grain of salt). 

[morgieb]

Disappointing that Husted is still favoured. His shenanigans from 2012 should not be forgotten lightly.

[Miles]

Kearney is stepping down.

I guess its good for Fitz long term, but the PR for now is awful.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Kearney is stepping down.

I guess its good for Fitz long term, but the PR for now is awful.

yeah this kind of reminds me of the Eagleton Affair, just plain embarrassing.

[Badger]

Kearney is stepping down.

I guess its good for Fitz long term, but the PR for now is awful.

yeah this kind of reminds me of the Eagleton Affair, just plain embarrassing.

Rule Number One of picking a running mate: Do No Harm.

Fitz flopped fabulously.

[LeBron]

Kearney is stepping down.

I guess its good for Fitz long term, but the PR for now is awful.

yeah this kind of reminds me of the Eagleton Affair, just plain embarrassing.

Rule Number One of picking a running mate: Do No Harm.

Fitz flopped fabulously.

He can still recover from it because it was early on and this gives FitzGerald to get the bad media attention off of his running mate and back on Kasich's poorly run Administration.

The good thing for Fitz though is Ohio isn't Wisconsin and there are still fields of possible great Democratic running mates for him. For Cincinnati, Rep. Alicia Reece could be a good recruit because it will guarantee the female vote comes out along with ensuring still there's the African American vote and the Hamilton County vote. His best pick in my opinion would be Ohio House Minority Leader Tracy Maxwell Heard. She has name recognition, can help down south still in Columbus, and has great fundraising ability like Kearney did.

State Sen. Capri Caffaro, State Sen. Edna Brown, former Rep. Betty Sutton, or Rep. Joyce Beatty (although she most likely won't), would be other pretty good running mates for him. If he just uses the same strategy he used to get Kearney, then aside from the tax debacle, he's back in the game.

[henster]

I think Dems should give up on a OH and focus on more competitive races like FL and MI which are more winnable at this moment. Fitz is a pretty weak candidate and this whole affair demonstrates it, in order to have a serious chance of taking down Kasich we would need a much stronger candidate. It's too bad because I think this race could absolutely be competitive especially with the legislature trying to pass "heartbeat" bills and voter ID laws.