Ohio Megathread

[LeBron]

I know this is a little old, but since no one has posted it yet, Fitzgerald has called on Kasich to take a pledge to serve his entire second term.

Here's the thing though. If Kasich runs for President, this will be within the first two years of being elected to a second term and like with Walker, Christie, Haley, Brownback (if he survives) and anyone else I'm forgetting, they'll be out of the state campaigning and leaving the state with no clear leader. For FitzGerald, it's different because he doesn't have to travel to 49 different states but instead only 87 counties all of which are smaller than Cuyahoga County and he's doing this at the end of his term. Basically, Kasich has a duty to serve out his full 4 year term if re-elected, but FitzGerald shouldn't be forced to run for re-election to his current position if he doesn't want to. He's doing what any young politician would do and that's pursuing higher goals in the finishing of his successful term as CC Executive and he's definitely young enough to continue to build his way up the ladder.

If Ohio Republicans really want to attack Team FitzGerald over being an opportunist, Kasich did the same thing when he abandoned Ohio once to work with a national, biased media outlet and when the time was convenient for himself, he barged back into our state, achieved most of his support from outside Tea Party groups, and now after possibly winning a second time, might be thinking of abandoning Ohio if re-elected in 2014 after now forcing us to pay a small share of the convention cost so Kasich can get his moment at the RNC. FitzGerald practically served out a full term as Lakewood Mayor and when elected Governor, will have served through the end  of his term as Cuyahoga County Executive as opposed to Kasich who will have left in the middle of it. If FitzGerald wins the Governorship, we’ll have an elected official, likely Armond Budish, succeed him right away as CC Executive whereas if Kasich goes for and were to win the Presidency, then we would have Mary Taylor, the Lieutenant Governor, take the position without even being elected to it.

Yo Adam, your favorite candidate's out again.

Good news for Fitzy.

OH Oh I Hope he runs against Portman in 2016. Such a good candidate and we're stuck with Fitzgerald...

Portune won't run against Portman because like I said, given his condition, he can't run an effective statewide campaign and there's already a decent Democrat, Bob Hagan, in that race. There's bound to be a few bigger names to file to who think Hagan can’t beat Portman (which is probably true since Hagan is a little too socially liberal for the state). Portune really messed up big time as is with the controversy he was creating within the state Democratic Party plus he only got in the statewide race for Governor in the first place because of the Kearney debacle which he blamed FitzGerald for.

First, Kasich isn't running for President.  He clearly wants too, but I think he's smart enough to recognize he'll always be poor man's Scott Walker. Secondly, I like Bob Hagan and all, but seriously?  There's no way he could win statewide against an extremely weak Republican, let alone Rob Portman (who while comically anonymous is still extremely disciplined, good at getting folks to buy into the "compassionate conservative" non-sense, and hardly a weak candidate).  Even in a heavily Democratic Presidential year, Hagan vs. Portman would be safe R barring a dead girl/live boy level scandal.  We have a number of stronger potential candidates.  Tim Ryan would be the best although I am not convinced he'll run.  Anyway, too early to say much about that race, but there's no way Hagan wins a Senate race (or any other statewide general election) in Ohio.

That's the thing though. If Walker goes down which is seeming all the more likely day by day and if Kasich survives, he'll be considered the conservative, pragmatic alternative to all of the other GOP hopefuls. If the RNC and the backing of huge billionaires isn't enough for him, he would still be glorified by conservatives in the campaign as the "comeback guy who balanced a budget in Ohio and DC all while cutting taxes." It seems like an opportunity he wouldn't pass up because this would be his last, realistic chance at the Presidency and unless he signs the pledge, I'm leaning towards him running.

As for Hagan, no you're right. I was just telling Julio that Hagan is a "decent" candidate compared to Portune, but Ohio Democrats can do MUCH better than that. Hagan is way too polarizing to ever get elected to statewide office let alone against someone who's Vice Chair for the NRSC and an all around great politician whose since recovered from his low approvals over SSM. I don't see Ryan giving up his House seat though to run against Portman, but he would be the top candidate when our other alternatives have either declined (Strickland, Cordray) or just aren't strong enough to beat Portman (Hagan, Brunner, Neuhardt, etc.).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I know this is a little old, but since no one has posted it yet, Fitzgerald has called on Kasich to take a pledge to serve his entire second term.

Here's the thing though. If Kasich runs for President, this will be within the first two years of being elected to a second term and like with Walker, Christie, Haley, Brownback (if he survives) and anyone else I'm forgetting, they'll be out of the state campaigning and leaving the state with no clear leader. For FitzGerald, it's different because he doesn't have to travel to 49 different states but instead only 87 counties all of which are smaller than Cuyahoga County and he's doing this at the end of his term. Basically, Kasich has a duty to serve out his full 4 year term if re-elected, but FitzGerald shouldn't be forced to run for re-election to his current position if he doesn't want to. He's doing what any young politician would do and that's pursuing higher goals in the finishing of his successful term as CC Executive and he's definitely young enough to continue to build his way up the ladder.

If Ohio Republicans really want to attack Team FitzGerald over being an opportunist, Kasich did the same thing when he abandoned Ohio once to work with a national, biased media outlet and when the time was convenient for himself, he barged back into our state, achieved most of his support from outside Tea Party groups, and now after possibly winning a second time, might be thinking of abandoning Ohio if re-elected in 2014 after now forcing us to pay a small share of the convention cost so Kasich can get his moment at the RNC. FitzGerald practically served out a full term as Lakewood Mayor and when elected Governor, will have served through the end  of his term as Cuyahoga County Executive as opposed to Kasich who will have left in the middle of it. If FitzGerald wins the Governorship, we’ll have an elected official, likely Armond Budish, succeed him right away as CC Executive whereas if Kasich goes for and were to win the Presidency, then we would have Mary Taylor, the Lieutenant Governor, take the position without even being elected to it.

Yo Adam, your favorite candidate's out again.

Good news for Fitzy.

OH Oh I Hope he runs against Portman in 2016. Such a good candidate and we're stuck with Fitzgerald...

Portune won't run against Portman because like I said, given his condition, he can't run an effective statewide campaign and there's already a decent Democrat, Bob Hagan, in that race. There's bound to be a few bigger names to file to who think Hagan can’t beat Portman (which is probably true since Hagan is a little too socially liberal for the state). Portune really messed up big time as is with the controversy he was creating within the state Democratic Party plus he only got in the statewide race for Governor in the first place because of the Kearney debacle which he blamed FitzGerald for.

First, Kasich isn't running for President.  He clearly wants too, but I think he's smart enough to recognize he'll always be poor man's Scott Walker. Secondly, I like Bob Hagan and all, but seriously?  There's no way he could win statewide against an extremely weak Republican, let alone Rob Portman (who while comically anonymous is still extremely disciplined, good at getting folks to buy into the "compassionate conservative" non-sense, and hardly a weak candidate).  Even in a heavily Democratic Presidential year, Hagan vs. Portman would be safe R barring a dead girl/live boy level scandal.  We have a number of stronger potential candidates.  Tim Ryan would be the best although I am not convinced he'll run.  Anyway, too early to say much about that race, but there's no way Hagan wins a Senate race (or any other statewide general election) in Ohio.

That's the thing though. If Walker goes down which is seeming all the more likely day by day and if Kasich survives, he'll be considered the conservative, pragmatic alternative to all of the other GOP hopefuls. If the RNC and the backing of huge billionaires isn't enough for him, he would still be glorified by conservatives in the campaign as the "comeback guy who balanced a budget in Ohio and DC all while cutting taxes." It seems like an opportunity he wouldn't pass up because this would be his last, realistic chance at the Presidency and unless he signs the pledge, I'm leaning towards him running.

As for Hagan, no you're right. I was just telling Julio that Hagan is a "decent" candidate compared to Portune, but Ohio Democrats can do MUCH better than that. Hagan is way too polarizing to ever get elected to statewide office let alone against someone who's Vice Chair for the NRSC and an all around great politician whose since recovered from his low approvals over SSM. I don't see Ryan giving up his House seat though to run against Portman, but he would be the top candidate when our other alternatives have either declined (Strickland, Cordray) or just aren't strong enough to beat Portman (Hagan, Brunner, Neuhardt, etc.).

Brunner's not running and Neuhardt is quite possibly a weaker candidate than Hagan.  My understanding is that Cordray wants to be Governor, Strickland has already said he's not running for Senate in 2016, and Connie Pillich will have just beaten Mandel (which means the optics would be awful if she ran in 2016 given how much Mandel was criticized by the ODP for trying to office-hop when he ran for Senate).  I was thinking maybe someone like Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley or (if he gets elected State Auditor, which is quite possible) John Patrick Carney.  Canton Mayor William Healy and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley are both possibilities (the former more than the latter, imo).  Even soon-to-be Cuyahoga County Executive Armond Budish could work although I'm not sure about that one (although I'd rather see him as Cordray's LG pick if/when he runs for Governor in 2018).  Even David Pepper (who wouldn't actually win, I suspect) would be a far stronger candidate than Hagan.

As far as Kasich goes, Walker will still run after winning re-election by a closer-than-it-should-be margin.  And even if Walker loses and Portman doesn't run, Kasich still has no shot.  He won't get the backing of the Adelson/Koch/RNC establishment types.  He comes across as two abrasive, unpolished, etc when speaking and he can't really pull off the "aww schucks, lets just roll up our sleeves and get to work" schtick he's always spouting.  If he runs, he'll another Bill Richardson or a less entertaining Rick Perry.  One of those guys who might as well be yelling during each debate "hey, look at me!  Over here!  I'm important too!" while all the serious candidates largely ignore him.

[Hifly]

Fitzgerald is now well on course for a LANDSLIDE victory against the EVIL Kasich.
[quote date=1405565513]
I am feeling more and more good about Fitzgerald's chances.

Because you're a strange
guy.
No, even the R internal has Kasich lead within single digits. I dont expect just like in the case of Quinn, to lead, until he wins final poll on Election day.

Nothing you say ever makes any sense. Also, when are you going to learn how to type?

[Flake]

Adam, if Fitzgerald loses in November, will you change your username?

[Hifly]

Ha, just because you say Fitzgerald isnt gonna win doesnt mean thats the case.

Anyways your insults dont bother me. Its an R internal, of course they are gonna have him ahead.


A PPP poll was just commissioned that had Kasich ahead by 1.

I am literally in the mood to scream at you because you're so [enter appropriate word].
Others here and I have already previously outlined our logic as to why Kasich probably will win, yet you seem to struggle to muster up one sentence that makes sense let alone provide any reasoning for anything you say.

It's not just the R internals that have Kasich ahead you clown; every single non partisan poll has put him ahead by margins that would suggest the race may not even be competitive. Moreover, those PPP polls are fricking D internals as well and are the only polls showing a close race. Engage brain. Think. Learn.

[Hifly]

I dont care what others think. Adam and I have our reasons that Fitzgerald will win and thats that, move on.

Explain your reasons. Forget about Adam's. I actually can't wait to see you explain something.

[LeBron]

I know this is a little old, but since no one has posted it yet, Fitzgerald has called on Kasich to take a pledge to serve his entire second term.

Here's the thing though. If Kasich runs for President, this will be within the first two years of being elected to a second term and like with Walker, Christie, Haley, Brownback (if he survives) and anyone else I'm forgetting, they'll be out of the state campaigning and leaving the state with no clear leader. For FitzGerald, it's different because he doesn't have to travel to 49 different states but instead only 87 counties all of which are smaller than Cuyahoga County and he's doing this at the end of his term. Basically, Kasich has a duty to serve out his full 4 year term if re-elected, but FitzGerald shouldn't be forced to run for re-election to his current position if he doesn't want to. He's doing what any young politician would do and that's pursuing higher goals in the finishing of his successful term as CC Executive and he's definitely young enough to continue to build his way up the ladder.

If Ohio Republicans really want to attack Team FitzGerald over being an opportunist, Kasich did the same thing when he abandoned Ohio once to work with a national, biased media outlet and when the time was convenient for himself, he barged back into our state, achieved most of his support from outside Tea Party groups, and now after possibly winning a second time, might be thinking of abandoning Ohio if re-elected in 2014 after now forcing us to pay a small share of the convention cost so Kasich can get his moment at the RNC. FitzGerald practically served out a full term as Lakewood Mayor and when elected Governor, will have served through the end  of his term as Cuyahoga County Executive as opposed to Kasich who will have left in the middle of it. If FitzGerald wins the Governorship, we’ll have an elected official, likely Armond Budish, succeed him right away as CC Executive whereas if Kasich goes for and were to win the Presidency, then we would have Mary Taylor, the Lieutenant Governor, take the position without even being elected to it.

Yo Adam, your favorite candidate's out again.

Good news for Fitzy.

OH Oh I Hope he runs against Portman in 2016. Such a good candidate and we're stuck with Fitzgerald...

Portune won't run against Portman because like I said, given his condition, he can't run an effective statewide campaign and there's already a decent Democrat, Bob Hagan, in that race. There's bound to be a few bigger names to file to who think Hagan can’t beat Portman (which is probably true since Hagan is a little too socially liberal for the state). Portune really messed up big time as is with the controversy he was creating within the state Democratic Party plus he only got in the statewide race for Governor in the first place because of the Kearney debacle which he blamed FitzGerald for.

First, Kasich isn't running for President.  He clearly wants too, but I think he's smart enough to recognize he'll always be poor man's Scott Walker. Secondly, I like Bob Hagan and all, but seriously?  There's no way he could win statewide against an extremely weak Republican, let alone Rob Portman (who while comically anonymous is still extremely disciplined, good at getting folks to buy into the "compassionate conservative" non-sense, and hardly a weak candidate).  Even in a heavily Democratic Presidential year, Hagan vs. Portman would be safe R barring a dead girl/live boy level scandal.  We have a number of stronger potential candidates.  Tim Ryan would be the best although I am not convinced he'll run.  Anyway, too early to say much about that race, but there's no way Hagan wins a Senate race (or any other statewide general election) in Ohio.

That's the thing though. If Walker goes down which is seeming all the more likely day by day and if Kasich survives, he'll be considered the conservative, pragmatic alternative to all of the other GOP hopefuls. If the RNC and the backing of huge billionaires isn't enough for him, he would still be glorified by conservatives in the campaign as the "comeback guy who balanced a budget in Ohio and DC all while cutting taxes." It seems like an opportunity he wouldn't pass up because this would be his last, realistic chance at the Presidency and unless he signs the pledge, I'm leaning towards him running.

As for Hagan, no you're right. I was just telling Julio that Hagan is a "decent" candidate compared to Portune, but Ohio Democrats can do MUCH better than that. Hagan is way too polarizing to ever get elected to statewide office let alone against someone who's Vice Chair for the NRSC and an all around great politician whose since recovered from his low approvals over SSM. I don't see Ryan giving up his House seat though to run against Portman, but he would be the top candidate when our other alternatives have either declined (Strickland, Cordray) or just aren't strong enough to beat Portman (Hagan, Brunner, Neuhardt, etc.).

Brunner's not running and Neuhardt is quite possibly a weaker candidate than Hagan.  My understanding is that Cordray wants to be Governor, Strickland has already said he's not running for Senate in 2016, and Connie Pillich will have just beaten Mandel (which means the optics would be awful if she ran in 2016 given how much Mandel was criticized by the ODP for trying to office-hop when he ran for Senate).  I was thinking maybe someone like Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley or (if he gets elected State Auditor, which is quite possible) John Patrick Carney.  Canton Mayor William Healy and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley are both possibilities (the former more than the latter, imo).  Even soon-to-be Cuyahoga County Executive Armond Budish could work although I'm not sure about that one (although I'd rather see him as Cordray's LG pick if/when he runs for Governor in 2018).  Even David Pepper (who wouldn't actually win, I suspect) would be a far stronger candidate than Hagan.

As far as Kasich goes, Walker will still run after winning re-election by a closer-than-it-should-be margin.  And even if Walker loses and Portman doesn't run, Kasich still has no shot.  He won't get the backing of the Adelson/Koch/RNC establishment types.  He comes across as two abrasive, unpolished, etc when speaking and he can't really pull off the "aww schucks, lets just roll up our sleeves and get to work" schtick he's always spouting.  If he runs, he'll another Bill Richardson or a less entertaining Rick Perry.  One of those guys who might as well be yelling during each debate "hey, look at me!  Over here!  I'm important too!" while all the serious candidates largely ignore him.

Brunner IIRC is running for local judge or something like that now, so win or lose this year for her, she's still going to be talked about as that "dark horse" candidate who likely won't run. Neuhardt wouldn't be the worst out there of candidates and her main problems are age and her awful attitude around the media, but if FitzGerald is elected this year, she could be a strong candidate nonetheless who appeals to the liberal base and is very strong fundraiser. But yeah, there's no way Cordray, Strickland or Sutton runs. They all have positions with the federal government and I doubt either of them run for Governor or Senate unless the ODP begged them to which I doubt would be the case b/c if Kasich is re-elected, Pillich would already be the Democratic frontrunner to succeed him in 2018. Pepper himself probably won't run either after his embarrassing, double digit defeat this year and personally, we'll want to see Budish hold it out until at least 2018 to make a statewide run for office, but he does have a lot of more potential for sure in the Democratic Party.

As for your picks, Cranley would never run for the position. Maybe Whaley, but Cranley has angered state Democrats way too much during his tenure so far as Mayor to have any chance at winning the nomination. He had the backing of of the local Tea Party and business establishment in the 2013 race after opposing the much talked about streetcar project in Cincinnati and went as far as to host fundraisers with Republican donors. He wouldn't stand a chance. I wouldn't count too much on Carney's chances either considering he'll have just lost a statewide race two years before (Auditor has always been an unwinnable race for us since the days of Celeste + Carney's JobsOhio attack just won't cut it enough to take Yost down) and he isn't exactly the most charismatic of candidates out there.

You're right about Kasich when you say he's pretty bland and boring in his speeches and he hasn't really made any Sharmanesque comments besides "I'm focused on mah Ohio for now, but I'm flattered" and he does seem like the mellow, family-type guy. However, his silent ambition as of late can be contributed to his huge risk of being voted out of office this year, but after that, I would expect him to not only start legislating by a more far-right stature 2015 and on, but go back to his Tea Party firebrand type that he was oh so known for before deciding to run for Governor. Regarding his financial advantage, he's already gotten campaign contributions from the likes of David Koch so far and he's shown he's not a guy who will fight against the big corporations and big spending donors and will do whatever they say. He's by no means gaffe prone like Perry 2012 was, either and unlike Perry, he can talk about Ohio and his record in Congress.

[Flake]

Adam, if Fitzgerald loses in November, will you change your username?

[LeBron]

Adam, if Fitzgerald loses in November, will you change your username?

Probably not because win or lose, FitzGerald would have a future still in the ODP and I'm aware that he has shown interest in a run for something else down the road if his gubernatorial run is unsuccessful. He would be a top notch pick for the open Attorney General seat in 2018 or, if Turner loses, I could see him running for Secretary of State when Husted is term-limited out. Heck, I could even see him being a great replacement for Kaptur if Kaptur ends up deciding to retire within the next few cycles or maybe a run for HD-13 or SD-23 in 2018 when Antonio and Skindell are term-limited out of office, respectively. The way it seems now if he does lose, he'll likely take a break and go back to his law firm for awhile and come back about 4 years later for one of those aforementioned seats. I'm pretty confident of this.

Ha, just because you say Fitzgerald isnt gonna win doesnt mean thats the case.

Anyways your insults dont bother me. Its an R internal, of course they are gonna have him ahead.


A PPP poll was just commissioned that had Kasich ahead by 1.

I am literally in the mood to scream at you because you're so [enter appropriate word].
Others here and I have already previously outlined our logic as to why Kasich probably will win, yet you seem to struggle to muster up one sentence that makes sense let alone provide any reasoning for anything you say.

It's not just the R internals that have Kasich ahead you clown; every single non partisan poll has put him ahead by margins that would suggest the race may not even be competitive. Moreover, those PPP polls are fricking D internals as well and are the only polls showing a close race. Engage brain. Think. Learn.

Actually, that's not true. I have a multitude of reasons for why I'm pretty confident of a FitzGerald win and I expressed all of those reasons in the OH gubernatorial polls and in this thread over the past months while the pro-Kasich guys on here who don't even live in the state are just thinking it's as simple as "Well, FitzGerald has been running an awful campaign and he only cares about himself and has no money or campaign and blah blah blah" even though he's been very successful this year for someone who's the definition of a grassroots Democrat.

As for Quinnipiac, they just had Beauprez leading by 1 and they certainly aren't the most reliable pollster in this race so far. We've yet to have a non-partisan PPP poll conducted here, but it is true that PPP had the best record in 2012. Even if you look at 2010, one of PPP's last polls had a Kasich +1 win while Q had it at a Kasich +10 win; in actuality, he only won by 2 and didn't even gain a majority of the vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a good idea that Fitzgerald calls on Kasich to do that, so that they will box themselved in. They will have to make a choice now, either be gov or run for prez.

The Poll showing a 1 pt race is fresh and Fitzgerald is closing gap.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

[LeBron]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

Still, Cranley failed to gain any support from unions or women's rights groups in his campaign against Qualls and he only won in the first place from incredibly low turnout in the race. He would need powerful endorsements and high turnout if he would have any slight chance against Portman and his recent expressed support for Kasich won't really help him among Democrats, either. The ODP would be very quick to endorse Hagan if it was just the 2 of them in the race and I just threw Neuhardt's name out there as a potential, but in actuality, I bet when Mike Turner retires, she'll make a well-deserved attempt to win OH-10 again.

As for Cordray, idk barring Hillary reappointing him as CFPB Chairman when it gets to be that time, then I could see a run likely for Governor. I would have no objections to him at all and we'd win the Governors seat just in time for the redistricting! As for Healy, he's undoubtedly done a great job as Mayor in reducing crime and unemployment rates all while balancing the budget. He's definitely one of our greater Democratic Mayors. However, I would personally much rather see him team up with Boccieri in 2016 to take on Renacci and Gibbs rather than run statewide.

Leland I think stands a very good chance at becoming the next Minority Leader when he in his own right is a former party chair and a great fundraiser, but I'm actually putting my money on Kathleen Clyde if it ends up being someone outside of the current, top party leadership. I would also watch Patten if he can pull off a win this time over Dovilla. Rosenberger has the Speakership rolled up him for himself on the Republican side, for sure. Butler doesn't stand a chance in the world.

And yeah, I love how we have completely opposite predictions on what will happen in the Secy. of State and Auditor races lol. We'll see what happens in those races.

[Hifly]

Ha, just because you say Fitzgerald isnt gonna win doesnt mean thats the case.

Anyways your insults dont bother me. Its an R internal, of course they are gonna have him ahead.


A PPP poll was just commissioned that had Kasich ahead by 1.

I am literally in the mood to scream at you because you're so [enter appropriate word].
Others here and I have already previously outlined our logic as to why Kasich probably will win, yet you seem to struggle to muster up one sentence that makes sense let alone provide any reasoning for anything you say.

It's not just the R internals that have Kasich ahead you clown; every single non partisan poll has put him ahead by margins that would suggest the race may not even be competitive. Moreover, those PPP polls are fricking D internals as well and are the only polls showing a close race. Engage brain. Think. Learn.

Actually, that's not true. I have a multitude of reasons for why I'm pretty confident of a FitzGerald win and I expressed all of those reasons in the OH gubernatorial polls and in this thread over the past months while the pro-Kasich guys on here who don't even live in the state are just thinking it's as simple as "Well, FitzGerald has been running an awful campaign and he only cares about himself and has no money or campaign and blah blah blah" even though he's been very successful this year for someone who's the definition of a grassroots Democrat.

As for Quinnipiac, they just had Beauprez leading by 1 and they certainly aren't the most reliable pollster in this race so far. We've yet to have a non-partisan PPP poll conducted here, but it is true that PPP had the best record in 2012. Even if you look at 2010, one of PPP's last polls had a Kasich +1 win while Q had it at a Kasich +10 win; in actuality, he only won by 2 and didn't even gain a majority of the vote.

I was asking OC to explain his reasons; I've heard your's time and time again and nobody is buying them.
Excluding Republican and Democratic internal polls, do you have any polling evidence of "a very successful year" for Fitzgerald? He hasn't been polling near where a generic democrat should be in a state that Obama won twice and the RGA isn't even on attack against him.

Unfortunately the dumbass has now deleted his comments so I probably won't get a response from him.

[Flake]

Hey, Hifly?

[Hifly]

Hey, Hifly?

Go to bed

[Flake]

Hey, Hifly?

Go to bed

I think it's time for you to shut your rude mouth.

Of course these aren't the best predictions, in fact most believe this race will go to Kasich pretty easily,  but that does not give you the right to call him a dumbass or to behave this way.  It's very childish and you have to realize that.

[Hifly]

Hey, Hifly?

Go to bed

I think it's time for you to shut your rude mouth.

It was a joke.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I await his explanation to prove me wrong.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

Still, Cranley failed to gain any support from unions or women's rights groups in his campaign against Qualls and he only won in the first place from incredibly low turnout in the race. He would need powerful endorsements and high turnout if he would have any slight chance against Portman and his recent expressed support for Kasich won't really help him among Democrats, either. The ODP would be very quick to endorse Hagan if it was just the 2 of them in the race and I just threw Neuhardt's name out there as a potential, but in actuality, I bet when Mike Turner retires, she'll make a well-deserved attempt to win OH-10 again.

As for Cordray, idk barring Hillary reappointing him as CFPB Chairman when it gets to be that time, then I could see a run likely for Governor. I would have no objections to him at all and we'd win the Governors seat just in time for the redistricting! As for Healy, he's undoubtedly done a great job as Mayor in reducing crime and unemployment rates all while balancing the budget. He's definitely one of our greater Democratic Mayors. However, I would personally much rather see him team up with Boccieri in 2016 to take on Renacci and Gibbs rather than run statewide.

Leland I think stands a very good chance at becoming the next Minority Leader when he in his own right is a former party chair and a great fundraiser, but I'm actually putting my money on Kathleen Clyde if it ends up being someone outside of the current, top party leadership. I would also watch Patten if he can pull off a win this time over Dovilla. Rosenberger has the Speakership rolled up him for himself on the Republican side, for sure. Butler doesn't stand a chance in the world.

And yeah, I love how we have completely opposite predictions on what will happen in the Secy. of State and Auditor races lol. We'll see what happens in those races.

The mayoral race was different.  That was between two Democrats and yes, Cranley wasn't the preference of the more liberal interest groups in that race.  However, there's no way on earth the unions would back Portman over Cranley and since it is a presidential year, I doubt they'd sit out any high-profile statewide race in Ohio.  I doubt Patten will be the new Minority Leader even if he wins, he's in a pretty vulnerable seat and is a bit too much of a good ole boy for certain interest groups (although that makes him perfect for the district he's running in).  I could easily see Clyde running, but I just don't see how she'd beat Leland.  As for Healy, I think he'd be better off running statewide than risking a fight with Gibbs where he'd be an underdog with a chance of winning if the climate proves favorable.  I do hope Boccieri runs for Congress although I've heard rumors that he's done with politics for family reasons.  I also really hope State Senator Lou Gentile runs against Bill Johnson (very possible) and that State Representative John Rogers runs against David Joyce (possible, but less likely).  Regarding Neuhardt, I'm pretty sure she'd get clobbered even in an open seat race if she ran for Congress.  Nan Whaley would be better for that seat or maybe a Montgomery County Commissioner if we have any strong ones floating around.

[LeBron]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

Still, Cranley failed to gain any support from unions or women's rights groups in his campaign against Qualls and he only won in the first place from incredibly low turnout in the race. He would need powerful endorsements and high turnout if he would have any slight chance against Portman and his recent expressed support for Kasich won't really help him among Democrats, either. The ODP would be very quick to endorse Hagan if it was just the 2 of them in the race and I just threw Neuhardt's name out there as a potential, but in actuality, I bet when Mike Turner retires, she'll make a well-deserved attempt to win OH-10 again.

As for Cordray, idk barring Hillary reappointing him as CFPB Chairman when it gets to be that time, then I could see a run likely for Governor. I would have no objections to him at all and we'd win the Governors seat just in time for the redistricting! As for Healy, he's undoubtedly done a great job as Mayor in reducing crime and unemployment rates all while balancing the budget. He's definitely one of our greater Democratic Mayors. However, I would personally much rather see him team up with Boccieri in 2016 to take on Renacci and Gibbs rather than run statewide.

Leland I think stands a very good chance at becoming the next Minority Leader when he in his own right is a former party chair and a great fundraiser, but I'm actually putting my money on Kathleen Clyde if it ends up being someone outside of the current, top party leadership. I would also watch Patten if he can pull off a win this time over Dovilla. Rosenberger has the Speakership rolled up him for himself on the Republican side, for sure. Butler doesn't stand a chance in the world.

And yeah, I love how we have completely opposite predictions on what will happen in the Secy. of State and Auditor races lol. We'll see what happens in those races.

The mayoral race was different.  That was between two Democrats and yes, Cranley wasn't the preference of the more liberal interest groups in that race.  However, there's no way on earth the unions would back Portman over Cranley and since it is a presidential year, I doubt they'd sit out any high-profile statewide race in Ohio.  I doubt Patten will be the new Minority Leader even if he wins, he's in a pretty vulnerable seat and is a bit too much of a good ole boy for certain interest groups (although that makes him perfect for the district he's running in).  I could easily see Clyde running, but I just don't see how she'd beat Leland.  As for Healy, I think he'd be better off running statewide than risking a fight with Gibbs where he'd be an underdog with a chance of winning if the climate proves favorable.  I do hope Boccieri runs for Congress although I've heard rumors that he's done with politics for family reasons.  I also really hope State Senator Lou Gentile runs against Bill Johnson (very possible) and that State Representative John Rogers runs against David Joyce (possible, but less likely).  Regarding Neuhardt, I'm pretty sure she'd get clobbered even in an open seat race if she ran for Congress.  Nan Whaley would be better for that seat or maybe a Montgomery County Commissioner if we have any strong ones floating around.

Yeah it was and I guess Republicans just didn't get anybody b/c one, it's Cincinnati and the environment there for the GOP is getting worse, not better. I'm still referring to the Democratic primary though when it comes to who the ODP, AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood etc. would endorse. Hagan's already in the race and if Cranley jumped in and somehow pulled an upset over the establishment, I would be shocked out of my living mind, so luckily we don't have to worry about Cranley v. Portman.

The Minority Leader race I'm still not focusing too much on yet, but there are a lot of possibilities out there. Patten isn't even guaranteed to win the seat so that may have been a bad guess, but Leland and Clyde are up there and you could also argue for Celebrezze, Reece, Driehaus, the family successors to Hagan, Sykes and Boyd respectively, or the possibility for Ramos, Phillips or Ashford.

As for Boccieri, I've heard other rumors he dropped out to begin with b/c of military obligations. That and unfortunately Republicans made it so Boccieri's residence was in Ryan's district, so he would have to carpetbag in a year and a district that wouldn't even be favorable to him. I definitely see him coming back in 2016 though considering national Dems really want to see him running for one of those seats and we do know Boccieri is interested.

I would love to see Gentile have a go at it and I'm sure Strickland would be willing to campaign with him, but he might be skeptical of a run considering the district only dives into deeper (Atlas) blue territory and unlike his district, OH-6 misses Athens. We'll see what happens there though, but it would be really awesome if Gentile ran in 2016 so we at least have a Democratic incumbent going into the SD-30 race in 2018. As for Joyce, who's to say he won't lose this year.   Wager is a lot stronger than Blanchard ever was in terms of fundraising and name ID plus he came incredibly close to successfully pulling a McCaskill. The race obviously leans R, but I wouldn't call Joyce a sure bet for re-election. If Joyce does survive 2014, then yeah, there's a good handful of Dem state legislators in the district who could challenge him.

And yep, Whaley would definitely be stronger than Neuhardt, but Neuhardt is stronger than the Democrat they found this year for the seat. When Turner retires, Neuhardt would be able to do a lot better in her home Montgomery County than she performed in 2012, to, but given she's 62 and Whaley's only in her 30s, the latter might work better b/c Turner might be in Congress for awhile yet.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

Still, Cranley failed to gain any support from unions or women's rights groups in his campaign against Qualls and he only won in the first place from incredibly low turnout in the race. He would need powerful endorsements and high turnout if he would have any slight chance against Portman and his recent expressed support for Kasich won't really help him among Democrats, either. The ODP would be very quick to endorse Hagan if it was just the 2 of them in the race and I just threw Neuhardt's name out there as a potential, but in actuality, I bet when Mike Turner retires, she'll make a well-deserved attempt to win OH-10 again.

As for Cordray, idk barring Hillary reappointing him as CFPB Chairman when it gets to be that time, then I could see a run likely for Governor. I would have no objections to him at all and we'd win the Governors seat just in time for the redistricting! As for Healy, he's undoubtedly done a great job as Mayor in reducing crime and unemployment rates all while balancing the budget. He's definitely one of our greater Democratic Mayors. However, I would personally much rather see him team up with Boccieri in 2016 to take on Renacci and Gibbs rather than run statewide.

Leland I think stands a very good chance at becoming the next Minority Leader when he in his own right is a former party chair and a great fundraiser, but I'm actually putting my money on Kathleen Clyde if it ends up being someone outside of the current, top party leadership. I would also watch Patten if he can pull off a win this time over Dovilla. Rosenberger has the Speakership rolled up him for himself on the Republican side, for sure. Butler doesn't stand a chance in the world.

And yeah, I love how we have completely opposite predictions on what will happen in the Secy. of State and Auditor races lol. We'll see what happens in those races.

The mayoral race was different.  That was between two Democrats and yes, Cranley wasn't the preference of the more liberal interest groups in that race.  However, there's no way on earth the unions would back Portman over Cranley and since it is a presidential year, I doubt they'd sit out any high-profile statewide race in Ohio.  I doubt Patten will be the new Minority Leader even if he wins, he's in a pretty vulnerable seat and is a bit too much of a good ole boy for certain interest groups (although that makes him perfect for the district he's running in).  I could easily see Clyde running, but I just don't see how she'd beat Leland.  As for Healy, I think he'd be better off running statewide than risking a fight with Gibbs where he'd be an underdog with a chance of winning if the climate proves favorable.  I do hope Boccieri runs for Congress although I've heard rumors that he's done with politics for family reasons.  I also really hope State Senator Lou Gentile runs against Bill Johnson (very possible) and that State Representative John Rogers runs against David Joyce (possible, but less likely).  Regarding Neuhardt, I'm pretty sure she'd get clobbered even in an open seat race if she ran for Congress.  Nan Whaley would be better for that seat or maybe a Montgomery County Commissioner if we have any strong ones floating around.

Yeah it was and I guess Republicans just didn't get anybody b/c one, it's Cincinnati and the environment there for the GOP is getting worse, not better. I'm still referring to the Democratic primary though when it comes to who the ODP, AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood etc. would endorse. Hagan's already in the race and if Cranley jumped in and somehow pulled an upset over the establishment, I would be shocked out of my living mind, so luckily we don't have to worry about Cranley v. Portman.

The Minority Leader race I'm still not focusing too much on yet, but there are a lot of possibilities out there. Patten isn't even guaranteed to win the seat so that may have been a bad guess, but Leland and Clyde are up there and you could also argue for Celebrezze, Reece, Driehaus, the family successors to Hagan, Sykes and Boyd respectively, or the possibility for Ramos, Phillips or Ashford.

As for Boccieri, I've heard other rumors he dropped out to begin with b/c of military obligations. That and unfortunately Republicans made it so Boccieri's residence was in Ryan's district, so he would have to carpetbag in a year and a district that wouldn't even be favorable to him. I definitely see him coming back in 2016 though considering national Dems really want to see him running for one of those seats and we do know Boccieri is interested.

I would love to see Gentile have a go at it and I'm sure Strickland would be willing to campaign with him, but he might be skeptical of a run considering the district only dives into deeper (Atlas) blue territory and unlike his district, OH-6 misses Athens. We'll see what happens there though, but it would be really awesome if Gentile ran in 2016 so we at least have a Democratic incumbent going into the SD-30 race in 2018. As for Joyce, who's to say he won't lose this year.   Wager is a lot stronger than Blanchard ever was in terms of fundraising and name ID plus he came incredibly close to successfully pulling a McCaskill. The race obviously leans R, but I wouldn't call Joyce a sure bet for re-election. If Joyce does survive 2014, then yeah, there's a good handful of Dem state legislators in the district who could challenge him.

And yep, Whaley would definitely be stronger than Neuhardt, but Neuhardt is stronger than the Democrat they found this year for the seat. When Turner retires, Neuhardt would be able to do a lot better in her home Montgomery County than she performed in 2012, to, but given she's 62 and Whaley's only in her 30s, the latter might work better b/c Turner might be in Congress for awhile yet.

Thing is that the ODP establishment would back Cranley over Hagan in a second.  Hagan's great and all, but he's a self-described member of the "crazy Caucus."  As for Minority Leader, I am so bullish about Leland's chances because of how much money he's already raised.  It won't be a family successor though.  Gentile is definitely interested, everyone got screwed over when Garison announced she was running.  SD-30 isn't the right part of Joyce's district.  We need someone who is strong in Lake County.  Wager won't win, the ODP has already given up on the race.

[Hifly]

Driehaus should run for House Minority Leader; it would be great to have pro-life Female Democratic Leadership. Garrison was Majority Leader when Democrats last controlled the House.

I don't see why Lou Gentile would be a stronger candidate than Jennifer Garrison; he's more liberal and represents bluer territory. Garrison has way more political experience than him and held a very red district during her term in the House. She has a track record of being able to gain conservative votes (see her run against Nancy Johnson a decade ago).
Despite what the loons on twitter and dailykos like to believe, consolidating progressive support isn't going to help you win a district like OH-06.

Will Schiavoni stay on as Senate Minority Leader? I would like to see Cecil Thomas or Lou Gentile in a leadership position soon.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Driehaus should run for House Minority Leader; it would be great to have pro-life Female Democratic Leadership. Garrison was Majority Leader when Democrats last controlled the House.

I don't see why Lou Gentile would be a stronger candidate than Jennifer Garrison; he's more liberal and represents bluer territory. Garrison has way more political experience than him and held a very red district during her term in the House. She has a track record of being able to gain conservative votes (see her run against Nancy Johnson a decade ago).
Despite what the loons on twitter and dailykos like to believe, consolidating progressive support isn't going to help you win a district like OH-06.

No chance of Driehaus, luckily.  As for OH-6, Garrison is a boring right-wing flip-flopper who no one likes.  Gentile is popular, a much better campaigner and fundraiser than Garrison, would actually get help from state and national Dems, and represents a pretty big chunk of the district.  Besides, Gentile isn't part of the "crazy caucus" or anything.  He is just not a de facto Republican on all social issues.  He fits the district quite well.  Remember that Strickland is like a folk-hero in the 2002-2010 OH-6 and he was quite liberal on many issues.

[Hifly]

It's also been reported that State Dems are taking challenges in SD-09 and SD-11 very seriously. In SD-09 the most popular Cincinatti Republican, Councilman Charlie Winburn, is running and plans to raise a huge amount of funds; Cecil Thomas is unfortunately raising nothing. The deep blue lean of the district should be enough to thankfully save Thomas, who has been endorsed by Pro Life and Christian organisations.

In SD-11, Democratic Toledo councilman, former Toledo Mayor and former State Rep. Jack Ford is running as an independent against Edna Brown, and Dems fear that he may be able to split the vote far enough to allow the Republican candidate to win the district.

What do you guys make of this?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's also been reported that State Dems are taking challenges in SD-09 and SD-11 very seriously. In SD-09 the most popular Cincinatti Republican, Councilman Charlie Winburn, is running and plans to raise a huge amount of funds; Cecil Thomas is unfortunately raising nothing. The deep blue lean of the district should be enough to thankfully save Thomas, who has been endorsed by Pro Life and Christian organisations.

In SD-11, Democratic Toledo councilman, former Toledo Mayor and former State Rep. Jack Ford is running as an independent against Edna Brown, and Dems fear that he may be able to split the vote far enough to allow the Republican candidate to win the district.

What do you guys make of this?

I think Winburn could definitely win if he runs a good campaign, especially given that the Democratic base is extremely unenthusiastic about Thomas.  Edna Brown represents too inelastically Democratic a seat for a Republican to win.  My guess is they may have to spend a little money just to be safe, although the possibility of Ford narrowly winning can't be ruled out either.  If the CoC-style Republicans were smart, they'd have pressured the Republican to drop out and then tried to get policy concessions on some non-union economic issues or lower-profile social issues from Ford or Brown in exchange for the de facto (but obviously unofficial) support of the Lucas County Republican Party.

[LeBron]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

Still, Cranley failed to gain any support from unions or women's rights groups in his campaign against Qualls and he only won in the first place from incredibly low turnout in the race. He would need powerful endorsements and high turnout if he would have any slight chance against Portman and his recent expressed support for Kasich won't really help him among Democrats, either. The ODP would be very quick to endorse Hagan if it was just the 2 of them in the race and I just threw Neuhardt's name out there as a potential, but in actuality, I bet when Mike Turner retires, she'll make a well-deserved attempt to win OH-10 again.

As for Cordray, idk barring Hillary reappointing him as CFPB Chairman when it gets to be that time, then I could see a run likely for Governor. I would have no objections to him at all and we'd win the Governors seat just in time for the redistricting! As for Healy, he's undoubtedly done a great job as Mayor in reducing crime and unemployment rates all while balancing the budget. He's definitely one of our greater Democratic Mayors. However, I would personally much rather see him team up with Boccieri in 2016 to take on Renacci and Gibbs rather than run statewide.

Leland I think stands a very good chance at becoming the next Minority Leader when he in his own right is a former party chair and a great fundraiser, but I'm actually putting my money on Kathleen Clyde if it ends up being someone outside of the current, top party leadership. I would also watch Patten if he can pull off a win this time over Dovilla. Rosenberger has the Speakership rolled up him for himself on the Republican side, for sure. Butler doesn't stand a chance in the world.

And yeah, I love how we have completely opposite predictions on what will happen in the Secy. of State and Auditor races lol. We'll see what happens in those races.

The mayoral race was different.  That was between two Democrats and yes, Cranley wasn't the preference of the more liberal interest groups in that race.  However, there's no way on earth the unions would back Portman over Cranley and since it is a presidential year, I doubt they'd sit out any high-profile statewide race in Ohio.  I doubt Patten will be the new Minority Leader even if he wins, he's in a pretty vulnerable seat and is a bit too much of a good ole boy for certain interest groups (although that makes him perfect for the district he's running in).  I could easily see Clyde running, but I just don't see how she'd beat Leland.  As for Healy, I think he'd be better off running statewide than risking a fight with Gibbs where he'd be an underdog with a chance of winning if the climate proves favorable.  I do hope Boccieri runs for Congress although I've heard rumors that he's done with politics for family reasons.  I also really hope State Senator Lou Gentile runs against Bill Johnson (very possible) and that State Representative John Rogers runs against David Joyce (possible, but less likely).  Regarding Neuhardt, I'm pretty sure she'd get clobbered even in an open seat race if she ran for Congress.  Nan Whaley would be better for that seat or maybe a Montgomery County Commissioner if we have any strong ones floating around.

Yeah it was and I guess Republicans just didn't get anybody b/c one, it's Cincinnati and the environment there for the GOP is getting worse, not better. I'm still referring to the Democratic primary though when it comes to who the ODP, AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood etc. would endorse. Hagan's already in the race and if Cranley jumped in and somehow pulled an upset over the establishment, I would be shocked out of my living mind, so luckily we don't have to worry about Cranley v. Portman.

The Minority Leader race I'm still not focusing too much on yet, but there are a lot of possibilities out there. Patten isn't even guaranteed to win the seat so that may have been a bad guess, but Leland and Clyde are up there and you could also argue for Celebrezze, Reece, Driehaus, the family successors to Hagan, Sykes and Boyd respectively, or the possibility for Ramos, Phillips or Ashford.

As for Boccieri, I've heard other rumors he dropped out to begin with b/c of military obligations. That and unfortunately Republicans made it so Boccieri's residence was in Ryan's district, so he would have to carpetbag in a year and a district that wouldn't even be favorable to him. I definitely see him coming back in 2016 though considering national Dems really want to see him running for one of those seats and we do know Boccieri is interested.

I would love to see Gentile have a go at it and I'm sure Strickland would be willing to campaign with him, but he might be skeptical of a run considering the district only dives into deeper (Atlas) blue territory and unlike his district, OH-6 misses Athens. We'll see what happens there though, but it would be really awesome if Gentile ran in 2016 so we at least have a Democratic incumbent going into the SD-30 race in 2018. As for Joyce, who's to say he won't lose this year.   Wager is a lot stronger than Blanchard ever was in terms of fundraising and name ID plus he came incredibly close to successfully pulling a McCaskill. The race obviously leans R, but I wouldn't call Joyce a sure bet for re-election. If Joyce does survive 2014, then yeah, there's a good handful of Dem state legislators in the district who could challenge him.

And yep, Whaley would definitely be stronger than Neuhardt, but Neuhardt is stronger than the Democrat they found this year for the seat. When Turner retires, Neuhardt would be able to do a lot better in her home Montgomery County than she performed in 2012, to, but given she's 62 and Whaley's only in her 30s, the latter might work better b/c Turner might be in Congress for awhile yet.

Thing is that the ODP establishment would back Cranley over Hagan in a second.  Hagan's great and all, but he's a self-described member of the "crazy Caucus."  As for Minority Leader, I am so bullish about Leland's chances because of how much money he's already raised.  It won't be a family successor though.  Gentile is definitely interested, everyone got screwed over when Garison announced she was running.  SD-30 isn't the right part of Joyce's district.  We need someone who is strong in Lake County.  Wager won't win, the ODP has already given up on the race.

I would love to see Gentile have a go at it and I'm sure Strickland would be willing to campaign with him, but he might be skeptical of a run considering the district only dives into deeper (Atlas) blue territory and unlike his district, OH-6 misses Athens. We'll see what happens there though, but it would be really awesome if Gentile ran in 2016 so we at least have a Democratic incumbent going into the SD-30 race in 2018.

And like I said, while Cranley on paper would look better than a crazy true leftist to face Portman, realistically, the ODP isn't going to endorse a limited government, anti-union, pro-life, centrist who, like Frank Jackson, has been a strong defender of Kasich. Hagan, on the other hand, has been a very outspoken critic of Kasich and committed liberal who's more familiar and experienced with the statewide issues. Neither could beat Portman anyways so it wouldn't really make a huge deal who the establishment ended up supporting.

As for Garrison, I agree she's a complete joke. She's beyond uncharismatic and in a recent interview I saw of her after the shutdown, when asked about the obvious question of SSM, she flat-out dodged the question and discussed her role in the Equal Housing and Employment Act as if to try to get Democrats to forget her past on the issue. I wasn't too surprised to see Strickland campaigning with her yesterday, but that's all she has going for her. Her fundraising numbers are terrible, to.

As for Wager, while he isn't from Lake County, he is from the portions of Cuyahoga County that give a good chunk of vote to Joyce in itself, so he can at least decrease the margin there. He plays very well with suburban voters and is playing one of the only ways he can beat Joyce here - convince the voters that Joyce is self-serving and too conservative for the district. It's worth noting to that the Greens don't have anybody here like they did in 2012, either (and they won 4% of the vote in OH-14 in 2012).