Ohio Megathread

[TJ in Oregon]

Fitzgerald should do as Lee Fisher did in 2010 when he realized he couldn't beat Rob Portman - stop campaigning entirely, and give all remaining campaign funds to Democrats in more competitive races.

He's done the latter for the most part already. I'm not sure he's capable of stopping campaigning entirely though. If it meant not having his name in the news headlines he'd probably go through withdrawal.

[Miles]

Democrats are really worried about downballot fallout from Fitzgerald. On the bright side, there's talk of a total house cleaning at the OHDP after the election...

[LeBron]

New fundraising reports were released for the month of September. All Republicans outraised the Democrats which will be good for them going into the ad blitz of October. Kasich ended up outraising FitzGerald 28 to 1 with an embarrassing cash showing by Fitzy, raising less than all down-ballot Democrats.

At the top of the ticket, Kasich raised $1.5M while FitzGerald only raised $55K. Kasich has a $14M war chest on hand and FitzGerald has $2.6M on hand. Down-ballot Democrats all did better in fundraising in FitzGerald, to be expected, though the state party unwisely shifted a lot of their resources to David Pepper, who will lose by a similar margin to FitzGerald. Ever since Kasich screwed Ed over, FitzGerald is staying off the air while Kasich's been up with 4 ads since August: RGA's "Shady" which attacks Ed over the license non-issue, "He Listened" which was Kasich's attempt to get people to forgive him for his "idiot" comment, "Ohio is Coming Back" which directly lies about our state's unemployment rate and makes the false claim that Kasich didn't raise taxes, and "Johnny's Story" which notably features a black Republican supporting Kasich. Kasich will end up winning by a Portman-like margin at this point, as much as it pains me to say that.

DeWine and Pepper both raised a little over $300K with DeWine's cash balance at $3.9M to Pepper's $2.4M. A lot of Pepper's help is for whatever reason coming from the state Democratic Party, even though Pepper stands zero chance of defeating DeWine. Pepper's a good candidate, don't get me wrong, but DeWine's too strong to defeat. In the ad war, Pepper and DeWine are each up with one ad a piece. Pepper's "Sidestep" which hits DeWine effectively on his pay-to-play politics and DeWine's ad, "Daughters" which like Mandel's ad, includes his family praising him, and mentions nothing in defense of his 4 years as Attorney General.

In the winnable Treasurer race, Mandel outraised Pillich by a quarter of a million, 545K to 290K. Mandel has $4M in cash on hand to Pillich's $2.3M. Like DeWine, Mandel also received a $100K donation from the Ohio GOP, but the ODP gave only $45K to Pillich, which is less than what they gave to Pepper. The logic there is horrifying. Pillich is airing an ad stressing her military career and bipartisan accomplishments, "Our Mom" while Mandel is trying to save his "Bright Future" by telling everyone he has a daughter. Pillich obviously needs to go on the offensive in her next ad, because I mean come on, it's Josh Mandel. He should be easy scrappings.

Secretary of State numbers had Husted outraising Turner by $100,000; raising $300K to her $200K. Husted still has a sizable cash advantage, leading Turner $3.5M to her $1M cash total. The FOP, who endorsed only Husted among all statewide exec. incumbents running this year, gave a 4K contribution to his campaign, while Turner got $12K from iVote PAC and a pathetic $10K from the state party. It's a shame the state party doesn't want to spend here when Turner's been running a strong campaign and is neck and neck with him in the polls. Plus winning back the Secretary of State office would mean a lot for 2016 and keep someone at the center of protecting voting rights. For the ads, Husted's out with an ad, "Vote While Serving" and states how he made it easier for military voters to cast their ballots. What the ad left out was back in 2012, Husted attempted to restrict weekend voting for everyone but military personnel, so yeah, no wonder he's relying on the military for this ad. Turner's not out with any ads yet (a lot of that is contributed to her low funds), but she's stated she does plan to go on the air and in the meantime, will continue her GOTV rallies in the big cities.

Yost raised about 80K more than Carney; raising 220K to his 140K. Overall cash balances remains competitive; Yost holds $1.6M to Carney's $1.2M. Carney got 15K from the state party and quite a bit of help from the unions. If you ask me though, Carney is starting to blow this race; he wasted TV time on an ad attacking Yost over a false claim regarding the purchase of coffee, and he's starting to come off as this partisan hero in his weak attacks against Yost. Carney's first ad was "Umpire", a great ad imo, but Carney's "Coffee" ad was a flop; some stations are voluntarily dropping the ad for being completely misleading in regards to who paid for the coffee. Yost has also been airing 2 ads, one in the Columbus media market, "Yo Yost!" which is the better of his two ads imo and establishes the fact that he fought Kasich on JobsOhio without actually stating that directly. "Music to my Ears" is airing around Cleveland, and the ad basically states everything his other ad did, but this ad is more annoying to listen to.

[IceSpear]

At the top of the ticket, Kasich raised $1.5M while FitzGerald only raised $55K.

#FitzMentum

But seriously, why is the RGA spending money here? Don't get me wrong, I'm happy they're blowing it, but it seems rather incompetent.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

At the top of the ticket, Kasich raised $1.5M while FitzGerald only raised $55K.

#FitzMentum

But seriously, why is the RGA spending money here? Don't get me wrong, I'm happy they're blowing it, but it seems rather incompetent.

He raised it, not spent it.  He's probably going to hand it out to Republicans who need it, which is bad news. 

[IceSpear]

At the top of the ticket, Kasich raised $1.5M while FitzGerald only raised $55K.

#FitzMentum

But seriously, why is the RGA spending money here? Don't get me wrong, I'm happy they're blowing it, but it seems rather incompetent.

He raised it, not spent it.  He's probably going to hand it out to Republicans who need it, which is bad news. 

I was referring to the RGA ad Adam referenced that was attacking FitzGerald.

[LeBron]

At the top of the ticket, Kasich raised $1.5M while FitzGerald only raised $55K.

#FitzMentum

But seriously, why is the RGA spending money here? Don't get me wrong, I'm happy they're blowing it, but it seems rather incompetent.

Well Christie campaigned with Kasich and Portman last week (at the onset of the Supreme Court screwing us over and siding with the Ohio GOP on cutting a week of early voting), and he pretty much stated why he's spending $ here. Kasich has always been very great friends with Christie which he publicly acknowledged and Christie wants Kasich to win by as large of a margin as possible; aware that he'll win re-election for sure.

A better margin of victory for Kasich in a politically divided state like Ohio could set Kasich up to be a strong pick for VP (and let's face it, both of them are interested in the Presidency/Vice Presidency). Then there's also the fact that Christie helping out popular Governors like Walker and Kasich satisfies national, wealthy donors like Sheldon Adelson who Christie (or Kasich or Walker) would need if they run for President.

Though it is worth mentioning, although Christie did help campaign for Kasich, the RGA hasn't aired any ads in Ohio since very shortly after FitzGerald's campaign implosion in early August. They realize Kasich's safe and are focusing on saving the likes of Brownback and LePage for the most part.

[IceSpear]

At the top of the ticket, Kasich raised $1.5M while FitzGerald only raised $55K.

#FitzMentum

But seriously, why is the RGA spending money here? Don't get me wrong, I'm happy they're blowing it, but it seems rather incompetent.

Well Christie campaigned with Kasich and Portman last week (at the onset of the Supreme Court screwing us over and siding with the Ohio GOP on cutting a week of early voting), and he pretty much stated why he's spending $ here. Kasich has always been very great friends with Christie which he publicly acknowledged and Christie wants Kasich to win by as large of a margin as possible; aware that he'll win re-election for sure.

A better margin of victory for Kasich in a politically divided state like Ohio could set Kasich up to be a strong pick for VP (and let's face it, both of them are interested in the Presidency/Vice Presidency). Then there's also the fact that Christie helping out popular Governors like Walker and Kasich satisfies national, wealthy donors like Sheldon Adelson who Christie (or Kasich or Walker) would need if they run for President.

Though it is worth mentioning, although Christie did help campaign for Kasich, the RGA hasn't aired any ads in Ohio since very shortly after FitzGerald's campaign implosion in early August. They realize Kasich's safe and are focusing on saving the likes of Brownback and LePage for the most part.

Strange that Christie would want his potential rival to win by as big of a margin as possible, since that makes Christie's re-election win much less impressive.

[Lief 🗽]

Christie is basically using the RGA as a slush fund at this point, to give money to politicians he wants to endorse him when he runs for president.

[LeBron]

We have a few sore losers in the general election race for Cuyahoga County Executive to replace Ed FitzGerald. Cuyahoga County Councilman Jack Schron won the GOP Primary unopposed on May 6th, but the Democratic primary was packed. State Sen. Shirley Smith, former North Olmsted Mayor Tom O'Grady, and former County Sheriff Bob Reid, all Democrats who lost to Budish in the primary, have endorsed Budish's Republican challenger, Schron. Our former Lakewood Mayor, Tom George who was primaried by FitzGerald in 2006 also betrayed our party and endorsed Schron.

Smith, who lost to Budish in the primary in a 56-20 landslide, is upset that the ODP establishment didn't back her and is helping campaign for Schron, the same guy who backed Senate Bill 5 and voted against a council measure to extend county benefits to partners of SSM couples.

And the odd thing is, while Budish has been running very positive ads about growing up in Cleveland and his new great plans he has for our county, Schron is busy fundraising with partisan statewide figures like Kasich and Voinovich and airing ads which attack Budish on some of the lowest levels including an ad that calls Budish a "partisan politician" while showing a cameo of Budish shaking hands with FitzGerald. Schron's ad is called "Jack Means Jobs" where he gets Voinovich to state that he's a "proven job creator" even though the Cuyahoga County Executive position isn't prioritized around creating jobs and even if it was, campaigning with John Kasich of all people is not reassuring if Schron's going to cite that talking point. Ohio under Kasich lost more jobs than any other state this past July with people leaving the labor force in bigger numbers than usual, so I would love it if Schron could explain this one to our counties voters. The CC Exec's main job is to work with the Council to sign off/line-item veto legislation that establish county budgets, establish bonds for plans like demolishing abandoned homes in the county, extending our various types of taxes (sin tax, bed tax, hotel tax etc.), and helping pass through legislation that for example establishes and funds the college savings program, the prescription drug drop-box program or the Public Policy Fellowship program. He also has appointment power of prosecutor, treasurer, commissions and other county personnel, coordinates with local governments on improving social services for our parks, libraries, schools, prisons, roads etc, and is a public authority figure especially now with the Ebola crisis that came to the county. So maybe Schron should educate himself on what the position actually does before running for it.

It's worth noting to that Budish has pledged to serve out a full term as CC Exec. if elected which means primarily he's just vowed not to run for Senate in 2016. On the other hand, we have Jack Schron who's in the middle of his elected term on Council, and is running for another office in the middle of it. Remind you of anyone, like say, Josh Mandel? Schron and Budish would both use the office as a stepping stone, no doubt but if Schron runs for a higher office in the middle of his council term, then you can't really trust him that he'll stay a full term as CC Exec. without running for something else midway.

And most of all, we need a leader as CC Executive. Sure, Schron's touting his experience as a company executive and his successful manufacturing plant business, but Budish also has as much, if not more experience then him. He's a former Ohio House Speaker, leading 98 other colleagues and he was responsible for making a lot of very tough decisions in those 2 years. We need a leader willing to stand up to our politically-opposed state government when necessary, to. In Kasich's budgets, he's cut local government funding and just recently, Exec. FitzGerald and the County Council took decisive action to defy the state government and protect our voting rights and after the state legislature attempted to cut state funding to Cuyahoga County as a result, FitzGerald again took action and called on the federal government to address the issue. Budish would have done the same thing if he was in FitzGerald's position, while Schron has previously stated and voted for sitting back and letting Kasich disfranchise the voters of Cuyahoga County. That's not a leader.

It would obviously take a miracle for Schron to pull this off since Democrats have a 3 to 1 registration advantage here, but just in case, I'm more focused on holding onto control of our county government than I am about Treasurer or Secretary of State anymore which are becoming more and more of a lost cause. A Schron win would be horrifying. He's by no means a moderate; he's proven to be a partisan, conservative warrior for the GOP, and he would try and bypass our Democratic-controlled County Council at any given moment through appointments and be the ceremonial veto king.

These last 2 weeks I'm devoting mainly to Budish. I won't donate anything because luckily Budish has the money to keep airing ads in these final few weeks while Schron's very low on cash, but Budish still needs all the GOTV he can get.

[Niemeyerite]

TL;DR version of that: democrats may now lose the Cuyahoga County Executive race.

LoL.

[Potus]

Adam, you are displaying your fundamental misunderstanding of politics.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

TL;DR version of that: democrats may now lose the Cuyahoga County Executive race.

LoL.

No we won't, Adam's more or less right about the big picture with the Cuyahoga County Executive race; these are just sore losers and Smith was never held in particularly high regard despite being a State Senator.  Even FitzGerald will win Cuyahoga and Armond Budish (our nominee) is a strong candidate (he's got statewide potential, although I think he'd do much better running for state-level office than for Senate; he's not the right type to run against Portman). 

@ Adam: Told you not to back Smith in primary (although in fairness, I believe you later came around and switched to Budish, IIRC).

[IceSpear]

Adam, do you think FitzGerald will end his political career after this election, or will he try to run for something else in the future?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Adam, do you think FitzGerald will end his political career after this election, or will he try to run for something else in the future?

It doesn't matter if he runs for anything, he has less chance of winning another primary than Alan Keyes has of becoming President.

[IceSpear]

Adam, do you think FitzGerald will end his political career after this election, or will he try to run for something else in the future?

It doesn't matter if he runs for anything, he has less chance of winning another primary than Alan Keyes has of becoming President.

Haha, of course he'd never actually win the nomination (much less the general). My question was if he might be delusional enough to try.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Adam, do you think FitzGerald will end his political career after this election, or will he try to run for something else in the future?

It doesn't matter if he runs for anything, he has less chance of winning another primary than Alan Keyes has of becoming President.

Haha, of course he'd never actually win the nomination (much less the general). My question was if he might be delusional enough to try.

Yes, if it'd keep him in the headlines.

[Panda Express]

Adam Fitzgerald, how do you feel about the fact that nearly every state has a competitive governor's race this year except for Ohio? How strange is that?

[LeBron]

TL;DR version of that: democrats may now lose the Cuyahoga County Executive race.

LoL.

No we won't, Adam's more or less right about the big picture with the Cuyahoga County Executive race; these are just sore losers and Smith was never held in particularly high regard despite being a State Senator.  Even FitzGerald will win Cuyahoga and Armond Budish (our nominee) is a strong candidate (he's got statewide potential, although I think he'd do much better running for state-level office than for Senate; he's not the right type to run against Portman).  

@ Adam: Told you not to back Smith in primary (although in fairness, I believe you later came around and switched to Budish, IIRC).

Sore losers now and sore losers back then. Smith and Reid just embarrassed themselves in that primary. They chose to cry wolf pre-primary and accused party leaders of secretly favoring Budish the whole time, even before the endorsement.

As for my primary vote for Cuyahoga County Executive, I thankfully did vote for Budish and boy am I glad I did that. I voted in-person at my local polling place on May 6th, and just a week after that, Smith voted with Kasich to freeze the required renewable energy standards. She's so desperate for a job after her Senate term ends that there's big rumors she's trying to get a job working for Kasich's administration. I don't regret my vote for Budish one bit.

Adam Fitzgerald, how do you feel about the fact that nearly every state has a competitive governor's race this year except for Ohio? How strange is that?

It's really sad. The race to defeat Kasich should have been on the same level as Wisconsin, not freaking Wyoming.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Two things: First, why did typing " ; ) " withour the space make an R-OH avatar pop up in my post?  Second, Fitz isn't getting nominated for anything.  Unlike Boyce, everyone hates FitzGerald.

[LeBron]

FitzGerald is out with some new campaign banners for the election which focus on something called issues that Ohioans care most about. Kasich should maybe read up on that, because speaking as an Ohio voter myself, I don't care about a fake affair or a driver's license. Those aren't issues, and it doesn't change my view on Ed one bit that he's much more qualified than Kasich to be running the Governor's office. Ohio voters didn't get a fair opportunity this year to vote over the issues because he decided to play political games with a man's personal life.

I care about having the same equal rights that other Ohioans have, making a living wage in Ohio, and having a leader who's actually willing to give a damn about our education system and funding schools that can be successful; not ones that can't make it on their own. We need a leader who supports progressive, not regressive tax rates and not a leader who gives us higher sales taxes than lies to everybody that he didn't raise our taxes at all, and oh yeah, having a leader who's not trying to disenfranchise me and other minorities would be nice.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Turnout will be depressing, is my main prediction.

You've changed your initial stance I take it?

[LeBron]

Turnout will be depressing, is my main prediction.

You've changed your initial stance I take it?

No? Ed's changed his view on it, but I haven't. Those banners I posted were all created by Ed's campaign.

Yep you're right CrabCake, turnout will be pathetic. Like Ed told us last night though, as canvassers, it's our responsibility to GOTV and remind locals where Ed stands and where the Ohio Republican Party stands on our rights: (properly funding public education, expanding worker's/union rights, protecting civil rights).

Democrats planning to vote for Kasich need to know just how extreme he is. Contradictory to his campaign slogan, he doesn't work for Ohio. If we had 2 million votes and a completely unified base, then Ed could help move Ohio forward for 4-8 years, but that's where we fall short. For these next 4 days though, the best we can do is remind people to send in their filled out absentee ballots and getting as many voters as possible out of the precincts in Democratic stronghold Lakewood. The better we do that, the stronger the message Cuyahoga County sends Kasich, Schron and the others that we don't approve of them and their policies, and that Ohio definitely deserves better.

The other problem we have is down-ballot drop-off; which is hurting OSC candidate John O'Donnell and Common Pleas candidate Shannon Gallagher in their competitive races. We're not given the right to know the party ID of our judicial candidates on the ballot, and that ultimately helps Kasich's Republican judges.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Turnout will be depressing, is my main prediction.

You've changed your initial stance I take it?

*snip*

We're not given the right to know the party ID of our judicial candidates on the ballot, and that ultimately helps Kasich's Republican judges.

Not this year it doesn't, overall the lack of party ID for judges helps incumbents and candidates with Irish last names more than anything else.  In fact, it's probably the only reason O'Donnell will likely win (plenty of Republicans think he's a Republican ).

[Lief 🗽]

You folks think Democrats still have a chance of knocking off that pimply faced nerd Josh Mandel?