While he's probably favored to win, people are foolish to say he has it in the bag.
The Bush power structure doesn't exist in Texas anymore. George P. can get all the money he wants at fundraisers in Dallas. But can he get enough people to get out and vote for him?
Being a fundraising cash-cow and having great name recognition does not guarantee you anything in the Republican Party these days. If it did, then where's Senator David Dewhurst? Where's presidential nominee Rick Perry?
From all I've heard, geo p is widely popular with the gop party, from the fundraisers down to the county level.