President Kerry and on...

[SPC]

September 11, 2012: ...Stays in Benghazi

Tragedy struck the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya on the eleventh anniversary of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, when militants believed to be linked to the al-Nusra Front stormed the consulate and killed 47 U.S. embassy employees and Marines, including U.S. ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens. President Allen delivered a well-received speech thanking the Marines for giving their lives to defend the consulate and announcing renewed drone strikes against suspected terrorist hideouts in Libya and Yemen, declaring that it would be "tantamount to surrender in the War on Terror to fail to hunt down and kill those that committed this atrocity."

Some foreign policy critics of the administration believe that they have exaggerated the extent to which the incident was a premeditated terrorist attack, instead proposing that the attacks may have been an angry response to an intentionally provocative YouTube video that insulted the prophet Muhammad, citing the occurrence of similar protests at U.S. embassies in Cairo, Sana'a, and Khartoum. Senator Clinton stepped into controversy when she was suspected of abetting these views, issuing a statement calling for an "investigation into the cirumstances surrounding this assault before rushing to action," criticizing the administration's "impulsiveness." Meanwhile, Secretary Romney appeared on Meet the Press to reinforce the administration's stance on the attack.

Pew Research National Poll: Allen/McCain 49% Clinton/Van Hollen 41%

Maryland Senate Poll (WaPo) Ruppersberger 50% Steele 43%

[GLPman]

Really enjoying this TL.

[Kevin]

Really enjoying this TL.

[SPC]

Fin de September 2012: Sweet and Sour Sauce

The remainder of the month of September consisted of exactly the kind of partisan bickering that would be expected six weeks before a presidential election. Senator Clinton, still facing the same deficit in the polls as she did after the Republican National Convention, has accused President Allen of sending jobs to China with his permissive trade policies and failure to insufficiently prop up American industries. In turn, President Allen has accused Senator Clinton of receiving illicit contributions from individuals connected to the Chinese government, and claims that another Clinton administration would bring back all of the Chinese espionage that occurred during the first. Republicans have also mocked Clinton for a gaffe in which the former First Lady claimed that she was under "sniper fire" during a visit to the Balkans in the midst of the Bosnian conflict, when video footage from the 1995 visit showed her walking calmly from the plane. Unsurprisingly, both campaigns have heavily targeted the Midwest, seeing large electoral prizes such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as the key to victory in November. While both campaigns have brought up the Benghazi issue, the news cycle has relegated it to the background of the campaign.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke encountered criticism from both sides when he announced that a third round of quantitative easing was to begin immediately. Conservatives such as Larry Kudlow argued that such a policy with an unemployment rate of 6.6% and a CPI of 4.5% would lead the country down a hyperinflationary route, which will force the Fed to answer for rising gas and grocery prices. On the other hand, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman argued that, while Bernanke may be enacting good policy, it is merely a ruse designed to help the President's re-election campaign, so that the Fed can revert to a tight money policy after the election.

ABC/WaPo National Poll: Allen/McCain 51% Clinton/Van Hollen 45%

Iowa President Poll (PPP) Allen/McCain 51% Clinton/Van Hollen 44%

Colorado President Poll (PPP) Allen/McCain 51% Clinton/Van Hollen 45%

[SPC]

First Debate: Mind the Gap

Senator Clinton had a difficult task to achieve in the first presidential debate: reverse the President's convention bounce from the previous month. Fortunately for Ms. Clinton, it appears that she, or rather President Allen, accomplished that goal. Despite the recent improvement in the economic numbers, Allen proved ill-equiped to defend his domestic policies against Clinton's accusations that his "recycled trickle-down economics" was disproportionately benefiting wealthy Americans at the expense of Main Street, who have been "squeezed like a vice" by both unemployment and rising prices on consumer goods. Clinton, a candidate who had long been typecast as cold and robotic, came across as surprisingly emotional during the debate in showing empathy for the problems of the average person. Some commentators even compared her performance to that of her husband's twenty years prior. On the other hand, Allen was maligned for frequently going over his time limit and frequently staring at his right palm, which some viewers speculated may have been notes. Analysts believe that former Interior Secretary Sarah Palin (R-AK) may have served as a poor stand-in for Senator Clinton during debate prep in the Allen camp.

CNN Poll: Who won the First Presidential Debate?
Clinton 53%
Allen 36%

Pew Research National Poll
Clinton/Van Hollen 47%
Allen/McCain 47%

[SPC]

October 2012: Scylla and Charybdis

The Clinton campaign's momentum continued into the Vice-Presidential debate, where Congressman Van Hollen appeared collected and confident in his ability to succeed the President, while Vice-President McCain delivered a performance that one observer described as a "cross between James Stockdale and Buck Turgidson.

The second debate proved to be a change in fortune. Most of the townhall debate left no clear winner, with Clinton taking opportunities to bash Allen's plans for tax rates and Social Security privatization, while Allen challenged Clinton's plans for single-payer health care and carbon taxes. However, the most remembered moment in the debate came when a question posed by a Mr. Johnson asking whether she considered the Benghazi attack last month an "act of terrorism" or a "spontaneous protest," to which the visibly frustrated Senator replied "What difference does it make at this point...?" Her answer came across as showing callous indifference to the tragedy, and halted her rise in the polls.

The third debate, which focused on foreign policy, was largely a draw, with both candidates seeming to focus on generalities in lieu of discernable policy differences. Clinton accused Allen of being "clumsy" in his handling of foreign crises, while Allen charged that Clinton would leave Israel "defenseless against neighbors that wish for its destruction."

The campaign largely took a back seat to disaster news as Hurricane Sandy ravaged the Eastern seaboard. President Allen was pictured embracing Governor Eliot Spitzer (D-NY) in Queens in a display of putting partisan differences aside to combat the storm's horrific effects on people's homes.

Meanwhile, with Allen experiencing a resurgence in state polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania, the Clinton campaign has focused more of its efforts into a blitz of the state of Florida. While many political analysts speculate that this is an attempt to carve an alternate path to an Electoral College victory, Clinton adviser James Carville claimed that this is merely "icing on the cake," making up for Al Gore's loss 12 years ago.

In the race for the Senate, former Senator Bob Menendez's (D-NJ) rematch against Senator Tom Kean (R-NJ) may be in trouble after an FBI investigation revealing the former Senator for sleeping with underage Dominican prostitutes. Additionally, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) may be in trouble after a gaffe against opponent Congressman Eric Cantor (R-VA) that some Jewish organizations have interpreted as derogatory.

CBS/NYT National Poll: Allen/McCain 48% Clinton/Van Hollen 47%

SurveyUSA Ohio Poll: Allen/McCain 49% Clinton/Van Hollen 45%

PPP Florida Poll: Clinton/Van Hollen 50% Allen/McCain 48%

Quinnipiac New Jersey Poll: Clinton/Van Hollen 49% Allen/McCain 43%

[SPC]

Election Night 2012

BREAKING NEWS: EARLY EXIT POLLS SHOW TURNOUT LEVELS SIMILAR TO 2008; PRESIDENT'S ADVISORS PRIVATELY WORRIED

7:00 EST Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina have been called for Allen. Vermont has been called for Clinton. New Hampshire and Virginia remain too close to call. The Virginia Senate race remains too close to call.

7:30 EST North Carolina, West Virginia, and Ohio are closed and too close to call. We can project that Senators Manchin (D-WV) and DeWine (R-OH) will win reelection, to no observer's surprise.

Allen/McCain 42
Clinton/Van Hollen 3

8:00 PM EST Alabama, Mississippi, and Oklahoma can be called for Allen. Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maine's 1st congressional district, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island can be called for Clinton. Connecticut, Florida, Maine, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee are too close to call at this hour. The Florida Senate race can now be called for Governor Charlie Crist, who prevailed over Congressman Meek, giving the Republicans their first pickup in the upper chamber, where they are expected to lose seats. Senator Kean has won re-election over former Senator Menendez in New Jersey, with a last-minute scandal and Hurricane Sandy hurting his chances. Senate races in Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island remain too close to call at this hour.

8:30 PM EST Arkansas is too close to call at this hour.

8:34 PM EST Senator Warren is projected to win reelection over Gabriel Gomez.

8:45 PM EST Tennessee can now be called for Allen.

9:00 PM EST Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming can be called for Allen. New York can be called for Clinton. Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Wisconsin are too close to call at this hour. Senate races in Arizona and Wisconsin are too close call at this hour.

Allen/McCain 149
Clinton/Van Hollen 84

9:29 PM EST Gina Raimondo is now projected to win the Rhode Island Senate race against Ken Block. The race for retiring Senator Lincoln Chaffee's seat represents the first pickup of the night for the Democrats.

9:33 PM EST Maine can now be called for Clinton.

9:38 PM EST Virginia can now be called for Allen.

9:42 PM EST West Virginia can now be called for Allen.

9:45 PM EST New Jersey can now be called for Clinton.

9:46 PM EST Congressman Flake is now projected to win the Arizona Senate race over Richard Carmona. Democrats had hoped that Senator Kyl's open seat would represent a pickup opportunity to gain control of the Senate.

9:49 PM EST Arkansas can now be called for Allen.

10:00 PM EST Montana and Utah can now be called for Allen. Nevada and Iowa remain too close to call at this hour. Senate races in Montana and Nevada remain too close to call.

Allen/McCain 182
Clinton/Van Hollen 101

10:01 PM EST South Dakota can now be called for Allen.

10:08 PM EST Missouri can now be called for Allen.

10:17 PM EST North Carolina can now be called for Allen.

10:39 PM EST Republicans have their second Senate pickup of the night with former Congressman Chris Shays's victory over Susan Bysiewicz in the race for retiring Senator Joe Lieberman's (D-CT) Senate seat. Shays's victory virtually closes the door on Democrats taking over the Senate in this election. However, preliminary returns show that Speaker Pelosi's majority in the House will most likely be secure.

10:40 PM EST Ohio can be now projected for Allen. The call comes as a disappointment to the Clinton camp. However, preliminary returns still show the former First Lady ahead in both Florida and Pennsylvania.

10:43 PM EST Congressman Steve Daines will be the next Senator from Montana. Governor Brian Schweitzer was initially expected to win this race easily, but declining poll numbers followed by a last-minute withdrawal from the race due to a "change-in-heart" left the Republican nominee in a much better position to win.

10:53 PM EST Senator Steele is now projected to win reelection over Congressman Ruppersberger. Long written off for dead by political observers, Steele's iconoclasm and willingness to distance himself from the policies of the Allen administration are believed to have endured him to Maryland voters.

11:00 PM EST Clinton is projected to win California, Oregon, and Hawaii. Allen is projected to win Idaho. Washington remains too close to close at this hour.

Allen/McCain 232
Clinton/Van Hollen 167

11:14 PM EST Scott Walker is now projected to win the Wisconsin Senate election over Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin. Walker held a slim but consistent polling lead throughout the year, and his well-organized campaign no doubt contributed to his victory.

11:18 PM EST Michigan can now be called for Clinton. This was largely foreseen after Allen's half-hearted commitment to the bailout efforts begun during the Kerry administration, but the closeness of the state was surprising.

11:25 PM EST Connecticut can now be called for Clinton. The Allen campaign never seriously contested the state, believing the NYC media market was too expensive, although the effects of Hurricane Sandy may have made the race tighter than expected.

11:27 PM EST Wisconsin can now be called for Allen. All eyes remain fixed on Florida for the moment, as an Allen win there would put the President over 270 electoral votes.

11:33 PM EST Washington can now be called for Clinton.

11:34 PM EST New Mexico can now be called for Clinton.

Allen/McCain 242
Clinton/Van Hollen 207

12:02 AM EST Minnesota can now be called for Clinton. Beside's Maine's 2nd congressional district, this is the first Clinton win in a state Allen won four years ago.

12:17 AM EST Arizona can now be called for Allen. Clinton now must win both Pennsylvania and Florida in order to win the Presidency.

12:24 AM EST Nevada can now be called for Clinton, meaning Clinton has officially won all of the Kerry states.

[SPC]

The Final Countdown

President George F. Allen / Vice-President John S. McCain 64,197,191 49.7% 315 EV
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton / Congressman Chris Van Hollen 62,652,302 48.5% 223 EV

The American people were denied the luxury of either a concession or a victory speech Tuesday evening. Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and New Hampshire were still too close to call as of Wednesday morning. However, Clinton's campaign determined that the ~90,000 deficit in Pennsylvania was too large to overcome, and gave a concession call to the President on Wednesday afternoon.

Senate Results:

Republicans 54 (+2)
Democrats 44 (-2)
Independents 1 (-1)
Pending (PA)

Despite a favorable map to compete with, Democrats failed to make the gains in the Senate that they hoped would give them control. This has been attributed to a combination of good Republican candidates, such as Scott Walker, Michael Steele, Charlie Crist, and Chris Shays, poor Democratic candidates, such as Brian Schweitzer, Bob Menendez, Tim Kaine, and Rich Carmona, and an overall edge for incumbents. As of press time, Senator Rick Santorum maintains an ~1,100 vote lead over commentator Chris Matthews, but this is expected to change once overseas ballots come in. Both Santorum and Matthews have vowed to contest the results if they lose the final count, which is expected to lead to a long court battle.

House Results
Democrats 236 (+1)
Republicans 199 (-1)

Allen's narrow victory, the smallest ever for an incumbent President, left little coattails for Republican House candidates. While Republicans did make gains in many seats that Democrats won in 2010, redistricting enabled Democrats to overcome these losses.

[SPC]

December 2012: Duck, Duck, Goose

With paltry budget cuts having already been signed into law earlier in the year, the 2012 lame duck period was mostly devoid of major political brouhahas, aside from the announcement of President Allen's Cabinet picks. Largely perceived as a reward for his efforts to deliver the state of Florida for the President, former Governor Jeb Bush was selected as Secretary of Education, where he has pledged that nationwide comprehensive education reform will be his top priority. To fill the gap left by outgoing Secretary of State Mitt Romney, Allen has selected Secretary of Defense Condoleeza Rice to make another milestone in history. For the Defense department, Allen made a bipartisan selection with outgoing Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT). However, Senate Democrats have vowed to filibuster Lieberman's nomination on the grounds of his dangerous devotion to neoconservative orthodoxy on foreign affairs. Finally, replacing controversial Attorney General Kelly Ayotte will be former U.S. attorney Chris Christie (R-NJ), who the Allen administration hopes will be less entangled in the Fast and Furious investigation.

Democrats achieved a silent victory with the Pennsylvania Supreme Court's decision to uphold the certification of Chris Matthews's victory in the Senate election, which unseated Senate Majority Whip Rick Santorum (R-PA). Santorum has already openly speculated about challenging Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) in 2014. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans narrowly elected Senator Michael Steele (R-MD) to serve as Santorum's replacement.

Outgoing Secretary of State Mitt Romney (R-MA) commenced a nationwide speaking tour on college campuses, including Dartmouth and Clemson, leading some to speculate regarding his future plans.

[SPC]

January 2013: Deadlock

After the Newtown massacre of the previous month, the sentiment in favor of stronger gun control measures is stronger than ever. With the support of the National Rifle Association, President Allen said in his inaugural that he would be open to "responsible" gun control measures but would only veto legislation calling for an outright ban on all semiautomatic weapons. In a mostly party-line vote, Speaker Pelosi managed to pass a compromise gun control bill through the House of Representatives 241-189. However, passage in the Senate proved a greater obstacle. Despite numerous Republican defections, no doubt motivated by an unfriendly 2014 map, the cloture motion on the legislation failed 57-43. Majority Leader McConnell did not appear to have the legislation as a high priority on the legislative agenda; thus the issue seems to be dead until the 2014 election. Notable Republican defections inlcuded Senators Castle (R-DE), Coleman (R-MN), Collins (R-ME), Smith (R-OR), Wilson (R-NM), and Zimmer (R-NJ), all of whom represent states that voted for Clinton and will likely face difficult re-election bids next year.

Regarding Allen's Cabinet picks, most achieved an easy confirmation, although Christie nearly sabatoged his own confirmation with his confrontational hearing with Ranking Judiciary committee member Pat Leahy (D-VT), featuring notable moments such as "[Expletive Deleted]." Senators Feingold (D-WI), Wyden (D-OR), and Udall (D-NM) managed to convince enough of their caucus to join their filibuster of Lieberman's nomination as Defense Secretary to delay a vote until late February.

Former Secretary of State Mitt Romney made a special testimony regarding the September 2012 Benghazi attacks, being asked how he was so quickly able to identify the terrorist organization responsible and why the Ambassador was operating out of a secret consulate in Benghazi to begin with. For the most part, Romney kept his composure during the hearing, although media outlets were quick to seize on a brief moment when Romney appeared to roll his eyes at the questioner.

[SPC]

February 2013: Chicken

Nothing particularly out of the ordinary happened in the political universe this month. After a handful of Democrats caved on a filibuster attempt of Defense nominee Lieberman, the former Senator and Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee was confirmed 57-43 with three Democratic votes, from Senators Manchin (D-WV), Wagner (D-PA), and Breaux (D-LA). Lieberman has vowed to take a hard line against Iran and North Korea, the latter of which recently detonated its third nuclear weapon.

Meanwhile, congressional intransigence posed the specter of failing to prevent deep cuts to the rate of increase in federal spending, but a last-minute compromise between Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader McConnell, and President Allen averted the would-be catastrophe. Governor Spitzer (D-NY) castigated Republicans for attempting to negotiate the amount of Hurricane Sandy aid that should be appropriated in the final bill.

After saving a cat from a tree, Mayor Cory Booker (D-NJ) announced his candidacy for Governor of New Jersey, a contest in which he is the overwhelming favorite despite Governor Corzine's mixed job approval ratings. Booker's decision opened the floodgates of Democratic officials announcing their candidacy for Senator Zimmer's Senate seat instead, which has created headaches for the DSCC.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Please keep this going. I wanna see if Booker makes history as the nation's 4th African American Governor.

[TX Conservative Dem]

How in the hell did Perry win by 1 point ?

What happened ?

[SPC]

How in the hell did Perry win by 1 point ?

What happened ?

He won by 13 in a strong Republican year, so I do not see why it would be unreasonable for Perry to win by substantially less in a hypothetical strong Democratic year. 

[TX Conservative Dem]

I guess Perry got the message to work with the Legislature.

How did the TX Dems do down ballot statewide offices and both chambers of the Legislature in a Dem year under President Allen?

[SPC]

March 2013: Standoff

Senator and former Presidential candidate Russ Feingold (D-WI) launched a 13-hour filibuster against the nomination of John Negroponte as CIA director, criticizing the administration's refusal to state whether the CIA was allowed to kill an American citizen without due process on American soil. Feingold used the filibuster to voice his concerns for the declining state of civil liberties in America, the expanding use of drone warfare, and the hawkish stance of the administration toward virtually every overseas conflict. Feingold was joined by several colleagues, including Wyden (D-OR), Leahy (D-VT), Sanders (I-VT), Lamont (D-CT), Warren (D-MA), Capuano (D-MA), Udall (D-NM), and Sununu (R-NH). Feingold's stand renewed his good graces with civil libertarians, some of whom were disillusioned with his poor performance in the 2012 primaries. Negroponte was eventually confirmed after Attorney General Christie reluctantly issued a statement acknowledging limits on executive authority under the AUMF.

Meanwhile, arguments before the Supreme Court in a series of cases regarding gay marriage, specifically the constitutionality of the Defense of Marriage Act and California's Proposition 8. While the Justice Department has continued to defend the law, liberal activists remain optimistic about the law being overturned.  

[Maxwell]

#Feingold2016

[TX Conservative Dem]

Hilary lost to a redneck like Allen LOL.

[MATTROSE94]

Hilary lost to a redneck like Allen LOL.

Her campaign wasn't that great, so she probably lost for that reason. I might have even voted for Allen against Clinton in this timeline.

[Kevin]

Hilary lost to a redneck like Allen LOL.

Her campaign wasn't that great, so she probably lost for that reason. I might have even voted for Allen against Clinton in this timeline.

Shes the Dem analogy to Romney in this scenario.

I.e. someone who has been constantly seeking the Presidency only to be denied it by a strategy of making her appear as uncaring and unsympathetic to the voter.

[SPC]

April 2013: Under Pressure

Tragedy struck the nation when bombs crafted as pressure cookers killed three people during the Boston Marathon. The suspects were believed to be the Tsarnaev brothers, Chechen immigrants with refugee status. In a manhunt for the suspects, the entire Boston metropolitan area was placed under lockdown, during which the suspects were coincidentally found in a local man's boat, with one of the brothers now in custody and the other killed in a shootout with state police.

In response to the bombings and the subsequent intercepted ricin letters (not yet known whether the two incidents are related), Secretary Chertoff announced that additional screening measures will take place in airports and train stations to prevent similar attacks

[SPC]

May 2013: Revolution 9

While Governor Eliot Spitzer (D-NY) had appeared to be the frontrunner for his party's presidential nomination in 2016 due to his high approval ratings, record of liberal activism, and bipartisan praise for his handling of Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, the revelation that Spitzer patronized prostitutes as "Client No. 9" will almost certainly put an end to those aspirations. After two weeks of a media frenzy, Spitzer reluctantly delivered his resignation from the Governorship, opining that he could not effectively perform his job amid the speculation regarding his personal indiscretions.

Meanwhile, controversy followed leaked reports that Vice-President McCain had secretly visited insurgents with the Al-Nusra Front in Idlib, Syria. President Allen was forced to deliver a press conference, in which he claimed to have neither having knowledge of nor giving authorization for McCain's trip. Some congressional Democrats have demanded that Congress launch an investigation into a possible violation of the Logan Act. A surprisingly high number of prominent Republicans have criticized Allen's push for further intervention in the Syrian conflict as a counterproductive distraction from the War on Terrorism, including Senate Majority Whip Michael Steele (R-MD) and freshman Congressman Raul Labrador (R-ID).

PPP 2016 Poll (Dems) Former Senator Hillary Clinton 16% Senator Russ Feingold 15% Senator Barack Obama 14% Senator Elizabeth Warren 9% Mayor Cory Booker 8% Senator Mark Warner 6% Governor Jerry Brown 5% Governor Brian Schweitzer 3%

PPP 2016 Poll (GOP) Former Secretary Mitt Romney 60% Senator Michael Steele 9% Vice-President John McCain 5% Governor Rick Perry 2%

[Maxwell]

I support Jerry Brown or Michael Steele.

[SPC]

I support Jerry Brown or Michael Steele.

Keep in mind that nobody has declared yet. However, the first race since 2000 without an incumbent (and likely the first race since 1952 without an incumbent vice-president) has caused the media speculation to start much earlier than in previous election cycles.

[Maxwell]

I support Jerry Brown or Michael Steele.

Keep in mind that nobody has declared yet. However, the first race since 2000 without an incumbent (and likely the first race since 1952 without an incumbent vice-president) has caused the media speculation to start much earlier than in previous election cycles.

I guessed, but still, from what I've read thus far, those two are the favorites for me.