President Kerry and on...

[SPC]

Gubernatorial results:

Republicans 31 (+2)
Democrats 19 (-2)

Competitive races:
Arkansas:
Asa Hutchinson 48%
Mike Beebe 47%

Colorado:
Bob Beauprez 50%
Bill Ritter 47%

Illinois:
Judy Baar Topinka 47%
Rod Blagojevich 45%
Rich Whitney 7%

Iowa:
Jim Nussle 53%
Sally Pederson 44%

Maine:
Chandler Woodcock 34%
Barbara Merill 29%
John Baldacci 27%
Pat Lamarche 8%

Maryland:
Bob Ehrlich 53%
Martin O'Malley 46%

Massachusetts:
Deval Patrick 49%
Kerry Healey 44%
Christy Mihos 5%

Michigan:
Jennifer Granholm 49%
Dick DeVos 48%

New York:
Eliot Spitzer 60%
Bill Weld 38%

Ohio:
Ted Strickland 55%
Ken Blackwell 44%

Oregon:
Ron Saxton 49%
Ted Kulongowski 48%

Pennsylvania:
Ed Rendell 54%
Lynn Swann 46%

Wisconsin:
Mark Green 52%
Jim Doyle 46%

[SPC]

November 2006:

While the Republicans did well in the midterms, many in the party were dismayed that they fell short of more impressive gains in the House and Gubernatorial elections and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. With the presidential contest starting to heat up, some in the party are hoping to nominate a candidate with broader appeal in order to beat President Kerry and hold their congressional majorities. Senator John McCain and Mayor Rudolph Giuliani became the first Republicans to file with the FEC, and CNN has a snapshot of the race in these early stages:

Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 25%
Senator John McCain 17%
Speaker Newt Gingrich 12%
Governor Jeb Bush 10%
Senator George Allen 7%
Governor Mitt Romney 6%
Governor Mike Huckabee 4%
Senator Bill Frist 4%
Scattering 3%

President Kerry took the poor midterm results to heart and announced the resignation of Secretary White and the appointment of Robert Gates in his place. Kerry, Biden, and Gates plan to craft a plan in order to create a permanent peace in Iraq, and are not leaving the possibility of a troop surge off the table. Meanwhile, Kerry met with new congressional leaders Speaker Roy Blunt (R-MO) and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to discuss domestic policy matters.

[SPC]

January 2007:



President Kerry and Secretary Gates announced that they would be deploying 20,000 troops into Iraq as part of the surge strategy for improving the security situation in Iraq. This elicited criticism from the left wing of his party as well as a growing number of Republicans in favor of withdrawal.

In domestic policy, congressional leaders McConnell and Blunt felt empowered by the increased majority of the Republicans in both Houses of Congress, and thus began debate on a proposal to partially privatize Social Security. This became fodder for congressional Democrats seeking to portray the Republicans as exploiting America's seniors for the benefit of the top 1%.

In the accelerated presidential primary contest, former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA), Senator George Allen (R-VA), Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR), Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), and Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) joined the field. Former Senator Bill Frist (R-TN), former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), and former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) announced that they would be making their decisions in the late summer of 2007.

USA Today Primary Poll:
Giuliani 33%
McCain 21%
Gingrich 9%
Bush 8%
Allen 6%
Romney 5%
Huckabee 2%
Pawlenty 1%
Paul 1%
Santorum 1%

General Election Head-to-Heads:
Giuliani 45%
Kerry 44%

McCain 46%
Kerry 43%

Kerry 49%
Gingrich 37%

[SPC]

May 2007:


Congressional Republicans faced criticism for passage of a nonbinding resolution criticizing the Department of Homeland Security for failure to secure the border, while preventing any debate on the DREAM Act. Secretary Clark lambasted so-called obstructionists for their cowardice on the immigration issue.

Meanwhile, the Republican presidential candidates held the first two in a series of one hundred and twenty-six primary debates. Notable events included Santorum and Huckabee raising their hands to proclaim their disbelief in evolution, a dispute between Giuliani and Paul on foreign policy, and Allen proclaiming Romney to be weak on defense for merely wanting to "double Guantanamo" rather than "triple it".

ABC National Primary Poll:
Giuliani 32%
McCain 19%
Allen 10%
Gingrich 8%
Romney 7%
Bush 5%
Huckabee 2%
Santorum 1%
Paul 1%
Pawlenty 1%

DMR Iowa Caucus Poll:
Romney 27%
McCain 18%
Giuliani 17%
Allen 17%
Gingrich 5%
Bush 4%
Huckabee 4%
Santorum 3%
Paul 2%

[SPC]

April 2007:

Tragedy strikes at Virginia Tech as the largest school shooting in US History is perpetrated by a mentally ill student. A national day of mourning is declared by President Kerry to honor the slain students. Meanwhile, Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) introduces a renewal of the Assault Weapons Ban for the purpose of preventing future school shootings.

June 2007:

After two months of debate, Majority Leader McConnell agrees to a deal with Minority Leader Daschle whereby McConnell will allow an up-or-down vote on the DREAM Act and the Assault Weapons Ban in exchange for Daschle vowing not to filibuster legislation to make the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 permanent. The DREAM Act fails 48-52 with 14 Republican defections and 9 Democratic defections. The Assault Weapons Ban Renewal passes 52-48 with 12 Republican defections and 3 Democratic defections. The Tax Relief Act passes 57-43 with only Chafee and Bayh (D-IN) defecting.

While Speaker Blunt and Majority Leader Cantor vow to act swiftly in order to get the Tax Relief Act on President Kerry's desk, they declare that both immigration reform and gun control are dead on arrival in the House. The politician perhaps most affected by the deal is Senator John McCain, whose poll numbers have cratered and fundraising lagged in response to his critical votes in favor of the DREAM Act and the Assault Weapons Ban. Similarly, Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Governor Mitt Romney have faced criticism for perceived flip-flopping on the gun control and immigration issues, while Senator George Allen has experienced a surge in support from voters searching for a "true conservative" alternative to the "top tier".

[badgate]

Hopefully Kerry has the sense to veto the tax 'relief' bill as punishment for the Speaker's refusal to bring up the AWB

[SPC]

July-August 2007:
Senator McCain receives embarrassing news when second-quarter fundraising numbers come out, revealing the former frontrunner to be well behind Governor Romney, Mayor Giuliani, Senator Allen, and even Congressman Paul. Much of McCain's campaign staff have abandoned their positions, seeking new jobs with the Giuliani campaign.

In more primary news, Governor Romney easily prevailed at the Ames Straw Poll. Full results were:
Romney 32%
Allen 18%
Huckabee 15%
Pawlenty 14%
Santorum 10%
Paul 9%
Giuliani 1%
McCain 1%

Governor Pawlenty (R-MN) announced his withdrawal the day after the straw poll due to his poor performance and endorsed Governor Romney's campaign. Senator Allen declared his performance to be a victory, given that Romney vastly outspent all other candidates competiting in the straw poll.

Meanwhile, Senators David Vitter (R-LA) and Larry Craig (R-ID) have found themselves embroiled in their respective political scandals, involved their involvement with DC prostitutes and solicitation of sex in an airport bathroom, respectively. Republicans have been accused of hypocrisy for demanding the resignation of Craig but not Vitter, though some see this as merely political realpolitik, seeing as Louisiana has a Democratic governor.

In an effort to break the political stalemate in Washington, a group of conservative legislators have made an effort to attach the permanent extension of the Bush tax cuts to a war funding bill. This has received condemnation from both sides of the aisle for "playing a game of political chicken on the backs of our soldiers." Speaker Blunt quickly ended the effort in a rare violation of the Hastert Rule, but not soon enough to avoid temporary damage to the Republican brand.

General Election Head-to-Heads:
Kerry 47%
Giuliani 43%

Kerry 48%
Allen 39%

Kerry 49%
Romney 40%

Kerry 46%
McCain 45%

[SPC]

September 2007:

To the surprise of nobody, former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) announced that he would not run for President in 2008. Some political analysts see the news as reflective of President Kerry's improved approval ratings, diminishing popularity of the Republican Congress, and what were believed to be poor poll numbers in the early states. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) made a similar announcement earlier this month, ostensibly due to a conflict of interest regarding his 527 committee American Solutions, and former Senator Bill Frist (R-TN) had long since dropped off the radar of presidential candidates in favor of a lobbying career.

Meanwhile, in Congress, Speaker Blunt found himself unable to get a majority of his caucus to sign on to a proposed expansion of SCHIP. With his party's conservative wing threatening to replace him with a more hardline leader, such as Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) or Majority Whip John Shadegg (R-AZ), Blunt chose not to bring the bill to a floor vote.

Gallup National Primary Poll:
Giuliani 30%
Allen 22%
Romney 18%
McCain 7%
Paul 4%
Huckabee 4%
Santorum 2%

[dudehere92]

RUDY 08 - Optimistic Leadership. Proven Results.

[SPC]

October 2007:


In what many Republicans believe to be a sign of a good chance at the White House, Republican Jim Ogonowski obtains an upset victory in a special congressional election in President Kerry's home state. Niki Tsongas was originally believed to have a lock on the election, but her lead slipped in the final weeks of the campaign, and appearances by the major Republican presidential contenders are believed to have excited Republican turnout to Ogonowski's advantage.

In the latest in a series of Republican debates, all the major contenders except McCain insisted that President Kerry was leading this economy into a recession thanks to his refusal to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. Giuliani and Romney traded barbs regarding their respective immigration records, while Allen defended his social conservative record against attacks from Huckabee and Santorum.

In foreign policy, Secretary Biden managed to negotiate a deal with North Korea to discontinue production of nuclear weapons in exchange for food aid. Violence in Iraq has decreased in the months after the troop surge, although atrocities by the private contractor group Blackwater have come under heated criticism.

[SPC]

November 2007:

Despite an endorsement from televangelist Pat Robertson, the Giuliani campaign has faced a barrage of media criticism in the wake of the indictment of Bernard Kerik. Due to increasingly poor poll numbers in the early states, Giuliani has shifted most of his resources into the Florida primary, where strategists perceive him to have a better chance. Meanwhile, Romney has been positioned to take advantage of this development the most, with Allen, Huckabee, and Santorum splitting the evangelical vote fairly evenly in Iowa and a massive lead over all opponents in New Hampshire, where only McCain and Paul have spent a considerable amount of time in a last-ditch effort to regain needed momentum.

Despite the supposed success of the troop surge, 2007 has had the highest number of American casualties since the initial invasion. President Kerry has announced the beginning of American withdrawal from the country, and has opened the possibility toward employing a similar strategy toward the War in Afghanistan.

Public opinion has increasingly become less concerned with foreign policy and more concerned with home prices, which have been declining since 2006. Despite this, economists insist that concerns about entering a recession are unfounded, as evidenced by record lows in unemployment and highs in the DJIA.

Pew Primary Poll:
National:
Giuliani 26%
Allen 17%
Romney 14%
McCain 13%
Huckabee 6%
Santorum 5%
Paul 4%

Iowa:
Romney 25%
Allen 20%
Giuliani 14%
Huckabee 10%
Santorum 7%
McCain 5%
Paul 5%

New Hampshire:
Romney 37%
Giuliani 19%
McCain 15%
Paul 11%
Allen 9%
Huckabee 1%
Santorum 1%

South Carolina:
Allen 23%
Romney 19%
Giuliani 19%
McCain 13%
Paul 6%
Huckabee 4%
Santorum 2%

[SPC]

December 2007:



...proved to be a very eventful month in American politics. In foreign policy, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto brought attention to the unstable political situation in Pakistan. Longtime ruler Pervez Musharraf had previously declared a state of martial law in the country, and some conspiracy theorists believe that Musharraf may have been behind the assassination of one of his political opponents. In response to the growing protests calling for an end to the Musharraf regime, Secretary Biden stated that Musharraf was "not a dictator," but should enter into negotiations with the opposition to bring back peace to the strife-torn nation. Days later, President Kerry issued stronger rhetoric, stating that the time has come for Musharraf to leave office and begin the transition process immediately.

In domestic news, President Kerry earned bipartisan support for his re-election campaign with endorsements from Senators Lincoln Chafee (IR-RI) and Chuck Hagel (R-NE). Both men attributed their endorsements to the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming from the leading candidates on the Republican side, criticizing Kerry for being perceived as weak on the Iraq War, the Iranian nuclear program, and Pakistan's political crisis. Kerry also announced that he would have HUD Secretary Donovan and Treasury Secretary Reich draft a plan to allow debt relief for subprime mortgage holders, which has also drawn criticism from House Republicans but is shown to be modestly popular with likely voters.

On the eve of the Iowa caucus, Romney's lead has evaporated as social conservatives appear to be holding their noses for Allen's candidacy, although the possibility for a last minute surge by the Huckabee or Santorum campaigns is not out of the question.

Rasmussen National Primary Poll:
Allen 26%
Giuliani 20%
Romney 14%
McCain 8%
Paul 6%
Huckabee 4%
Santorum 3%

DMR Iowa Caucus Poll:
Allen 27%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 12%
Santorum 11%
Paul 9%
McCain 7%
Giuliani 2%

[SPC]

January 3, 2008:

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS: ALLEN 27.7% ROMNEY 24.1% HUCKABEE 14.5% PAUL 14.1% SANTORUM 8.1% MCCAIN 7.9% GIULIANI 3.7%

"I'd like to thank the good people of Iowa for delivering us victory tonight, and we will carry onward to New Hampshire, South Carolina, and take back America!"

"We got a silver medal, and that is more than any of us expected going into this campaign. Our national security cannot afford for us to be demoralized by a few minor obstacles."

"We ran the best campaign we could, but we fell short. However, our defeat does not mean that we will not continue to bring the message of faith and family values to the American people!"

New Hampshire Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll:
Romney 32%
McCain 20%
Paul 13%
Giuliani 10%
Allen 9%
Huckabee 9%

[SPC]

Close But No Cigar...

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS: ROMNEY 33.0% MCCAIN 26.7% PAUL 15.9% HUCKABEE 8.9% ALLEN 8.0% GIULIANI 7.5%

After being narrowly upset in the Iowa caucuses, Mitt Romney was not about to let that happen again in New Hampshire. In the Saint Anselm College/ABC debate the Saturday before the primary, Romney and McCain sparred viciously, with Romney accusing McCain of being "John Kerry's fifth column" and McCain calling Romney a "Johnny-come-lately" to the conservative movement. Other candidates joined in in the fray, with Paul saying the GOP needs to move on from its "stale and moss-covered past," an implicit stab at McCain, and Romney challenging Huckabee to a $10,000 bet after Huckabee's accusation that Romney was pro-amnesty as Governor of Massachusetts.

Although McCain gained considerable momentum from Romney's debate stumbles, it was not quite enough to put him over the top. Despite this, McCain maintained in his concession speech that he had "McMentum" and that he would soldier on to win Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida.

Detroit News Poll: Romney 28% Allen 26% McCain 24% Huckabee 8% Paul 7% Giuliani 3%

Clemson Univesity Poll: Romney 24% Allen 23% McCain 17% Huckabee 12% Paul 11% Giuliani 1%

Pew Research National Primary Poll: Romney 22% Allen 18% McCain 15% Huckabee 13% Giuliani 10% Paul 9%

[SPC]

In the run-up to the Michigan primary, chances of a McCain comeback dissipated when McCain said that most of the jobs that have left Michigan "aren't coming back." Romney, a Michigan native, exploited this by promising to make one of his top priorities as President reviving Detroit's auto industry. Many attributed Romney's victory in the state to moderate voters leaving McCain's campaign and the candidate making a large ad buy in the state attacking Allen and McCain's Senate voting records. Allen, who had been largely absent from major news stories since his Iowa caucus victory two weeks ago, went on the offensive against Romney in the FOX News Debate at Myrtle Beach, SC, accusing the candidate of being too out-of-touch with the Average Joe to understand America's struggling economy.

Michigan Primary Results (99% Reporting):
Romney 39.2%
Allen 27.2%
McCain 15.0%
Paul 8.9%
Huckabee 6.5%
Giuliani 3.2%

Allen's debate performance gave him considerable momentum going into the South Carolina primary. He received the endorsements of Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) and former candidate Rick Santorum (R-PA), while Governor Mark Sanford (R-SC) notably sat the race out, considered to be a bad sign for McCain's chances in the state.

South Carolina Primary Results (100% Reporting)
Allen 34.2%
Romney 20.2%
Huckabee 18.6%
McCain 17.8%
Paul 6.7%
Giuliani 2.3%

After poor performances in two must-win primaries, McCain announced his withdrawal from the presidential race, declining to make an endorsement. However, former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) announced his endorsement of Allen the Monday after the South Carolina primary, which some believe could play a pivotal role in the upcoming Florida primary, a winner-take-all contest with 50 delegates at stake.

Rasmussen Florida Poll: Allen 31% Romney 28% Giuliani 19% Huckabee 12% Paul 6%

NBC/WSJ National Poll: Allen 29% Romney 24% Giuliani 15% Huckabee 13% Paul 8%

[SPC]

I would appreciate more feedback, if anyone is still reading this.

[Niemeyerite]

I like it,

[SPC]

FLORIDA PRIMARY RESULTS: ROMNEY 36.7% ALLEN 27.9% GIULIANI 17.5% HUCKABEE 14.3% PAUL 3.6%

Momentum from the Bush endorsement was not enough for Allen to overcome the barrage of attack ads from Romney's better funded campaign. The airwaves of all major Florida media markets were saturated with ominous voices detailing Allen's numerous votes for spending bills during the Bush and Kerry administrations. While Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL) is said to have privately preferred Giuliani as the Republican candidate, he did not make a public endorsement to that effect, fearing the consequences of backing a candidate hopelessly stuck in third place in all polling prior to the primary. Giuliani announced his withdrawal the next day and, to most observers' surprise, endorsed Allen, calling him "our nation's best hope to win the War on Terror." Allen fired back at Romney during the Simi Valley debate for raising taxes as Governor of Massachusetts and for changing his positions on abortion and gun rights. Huckabee and Paul were asked few questions during the debate, although Paul did take a shot at Allen, asking how he could call himself a conservative while voting to "federalize education, approve a prescription drug boondoggle, and authorize the President to launch a trillion-dollar war?" Conservative activists have called for Huckabee and Paul to exit the race and prevent Romney from winning by virtue of a split conservative vote.

ABC/WaPo National Primary Poll: Romney 37% Allen 30% Huckabee 16% Paul 11%

FOX News Head-to-Heads: Kerry 44% Romney 43% Kerry 47% Allen 42%

Meanwhile in Washington, a bill providing for tax rebates for the lower and middle class as part of an economic stimulus passed both Houses of Congress with only minor opposition from some Republican members. President Kerry expressed hope that this legislation would be sufficient to circumvent the possibility of an economic downturn. In foreign policy, Kerry has expanded the drone program in North-West Pakistan in order to combat a recent surge in Taliban activity in that province.

[SPC]

Super Tuesday

Estimated Delegate Count:
Romney 606 (+466)
Allen 488 (+427)
Huckabee 71 (+65)
Paul 54 (+27)

While Mitt Romney did win a plurality of delegates for the day, mostly by sweeping delegate-rich winner-take-all contests in the Southwest and Northeast, he was unable to obtain a decisive victory over leading challenger George Allen. In the South, Allen scored several narrow victories over native son Mike Huckabee, leaving Huckabee with only his home state of Arkansas. In the caucus states, Allen prevailed despite high turnout from Mormons, evangelicals, and libertarian activists. The biggest surprise came in an incredibly narrow victory in Illinois, the last state to be called that evening.

Allen made clear in his speech from Kansas City, Missouri that he would ride his momentum all the way to St. Paul in August and Washington in November. Despite poor showings, both Huckabee and Ron Paul said that they would likewise continue their campaigns until a candidate has a majority of delegates, with both believed to be hoping for a brokered convention in which they can make a deal with one of the other candidates.

Reuters/Ipsos National Primary Poll:
Romney 34%
Allen 33%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 9%

[SPC]

February 2008:

Estimated Delegate Count:
Romney 688 (+82)
Allen 667 (+179)
Huckabee 100 (+29)
Paul 72 (+18)

The rest of the month of February made the race for the Republican nomination more contentious than ever, with Allen sweeping virtually every contest except the Kansas caucuses, where social conservatives brought Huckabee over the top, and the contests in DC and U.S. territories, where Romney obtained consolation prizes. While earlier it had looked like Romney could easily win the nomination by getting the Republican establishment to coalesce around his candidacy, analysts have noted that the remaining primaries and caucuses are taking place on unfavorable terrain for his candidacy, and it may take a game-changer to prevent Allen from taking the nomination.

PPP Ohio Poll: Romney 36% Allen 36% Huckabee 16% Paul 9%

PPP Texas Poll: Allen 46% Romney 27% Paul 13% Huckabee 12%

Rasmussen National Poll: Romney 38% Allen 37% Huckabee 9% Paul 7%

NBC/WSJ Head-to-Heads: Kerry 47% Allen 44% Kerry 50% Romney 44%

In foreign policy, the Pakistan situation became more complex as the anti-Musharraf Pakistan People's Party won the recent elections. President Kerry made a special trip to Islamabad in the aftermath of the elections in order to reach out to new Prime Minister Yousef Gillani.

In domestic issues, the Senate reauthorized amendments to FISA permitting warrantless wiretapping, which Kerry has said that he will sign, much to the dismay of civil libertarians.

[SPC]

March 2008:

After a last minute endorsement from Governor Rick Perry (R-TX), Allen swept the Texas primary and eeked out a narrow victory in Ohio. Although Romney obtained victories in Vermont and Rhode Island, they were not enough to overcome large delegate deficits in the two big contests of the night.

Texas Primary Results (99% Reporting) Allen 45.2% Romney 32.6% Huckabee 12.3% Paul 9.9%

Ohio Primary Results (100% Reporting) Allen 39.2% Romney 38.2% Huckabee 13.7% Paul 8.9%

Allen swept Mississippi the subsequent week, winning a majority of the vote in that contest.

Delegate Count (as of March 11, 2008)
Allen 877 (+210)
Romney 773 (+85)
Huckabee 100 (-)
Paul 75 (+3)

Facing increasing pressure from leading figures within the party to drop out, Romney announced "There are some people in the media who would like to see this end in a chaotic brokered convention. I assure you that, whatever the results of the primaries to come may be, I will do everything within my power to ensure that there is a nominee long before we get to St. Paul in August."

However, on March 17, Romney may have gotten the game changer he has needed for over a month...

Footage of Senator Allen from his 2006 re-election campaign referring to an Indian-American volunteer for opponent Harris Miller as "macaca" was anonymously leaked to major media outlets, creating a media firestorm. Allen has insisted that his remarks were ab-libbed and did not have racist undertones. However, outlets have highlighted Allen's mother's North African heritage, and the likelihood that Allen would be familiar with the word "macaca" as a North African slur used for darker-skinned people.

Talk radio hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity have attacked the media and Romney's campaign for "race-bating" the Republican frontrunner, and have urged remaining primary voters to vote for Allen in solidarity.

On the economic front, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 3/4% and approved loans to major banks, including JP Morgan Chase for the purpose of acquiring Bear Stearns. President Kerry has sought to reassure Americans not to fear a recession, saying that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong."

[SPC]

April 2008: Winning the Battle, Losing the War

In spite of several controversies surrounding Republican frontrunner George Allen, including the revelations that he kept a noose in his law office and hung a Confederate flag in his living room, public polling showed that Allen's lead in the Pennsylvania primary had only narrowed slightly. While some strategists, such as Karl Rove, have urged Romney to continue his campaign so that a new nominee undamaged by controversy could be selected at a brokered convention, others, such as Dick Morris and John Sununu, have suggested that the eventual Republican nominee cannot possibly win against an incumbent president with only two months to campaign, and that voters will forget about Allen's gaffes come November.

Weighing these factors in mind, Mitt Romney bowed out of the race on the Monday before the Pennsylvania primary, announcing, "a divided Republican Party cannot win in November, and we know in our heart of hearts that this country cannot survive another four years with John Kerry at the helm." His withdrawal speech stopped short of a full endorsement, although an endorsement was forthcoming later in the month when pressed for one in a radio interview.

Allen appeared to receive little bounce from his primary victory, a fact that has made Democrats confident that they will win in November, and might be able to win the House and cut into the Republicans' majority in the Senate.

CNN Opinion Research Poll:
Kerry 52%
Allen 43%

Amalgam of state polling*:

Kerry 264
Allen 121
Tossup 153

*Tossup states are either within the margin of error or have conflicting leaders in different polls

Meanwhile, in foreign affairs, General David Petraeus has urged the President to delay the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, as the security situation is still very delicate in the country. While Secretary Biden has privately suggested a three-state solution united under the umbrella of a federal system would be ideal to combat sectarian strife, Secretary White has cautioned against further interference into the Iraqi political system. President Kerry has thus far sided with Petraeus and White on this matter.

[Sec. of State Superique]

I think that Allen leaning to a mix of Helms and Duke would lead America to pick Kerry even not liking him after the Financial Crisis...

[NewYorkExpress]

This one's going to end up in the house... and then they won't be able to decide either.

[SPC]

May 2008

In Congress, Speaker Blunt received embarrassment when a vote on the Farm Bill failed 202-227, largely due to the dissention of conservative Republicans. Later in the month, after lengthy negotiations with members of his own party, Blunt was able to pass a modified Farm Bill 226-198, on the condition that funding for the Food Stamp program would be divorced from the Farm Bill. The Farm Bill then advanced to the Senate, where Democrats, joined by Senator Chafee (IR-RI) have thus far successfully filibustered the measure. President Kerry has castigated Republicans for being so insensitive as to consider cutting funds for the Food Stamp program during uncertain economic times, alleging that they are tone-deaf to the needs of ordinary Americans. Congressional Republicans also faced criticism for sitting on a bill proposed by Barney Frank (D-MA) to provide mortgage relief to those affected by the subprime mortgage crisis.

In California, a ruling from the state Supreme Court made it the second state to legalize gay marriage, which has both excited gay rights activists and infuriated religious conservatives. President Kerry has not come out in favor of the decision, merely stating that he supports each state's power to decision on their own definition of marriage, while Senator Allen has come out in support of a proposed ballot initiative to overturn the Court's decision. The decision does not appear to have significantly affected the Presidential race, where the incumbent continues to boast leads in the high single digits.