President Kerry and on...
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #100 on: April 08, 2014, 11:31:56 AM »

Game Change?

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS (99.6% REPORTING): FEINGOLD 33.0%, DEAN 30.6%, CLINTON 28.7%, BIDEN 4.9%, DASCHLE 2.8%



"I'd like to thank the people of Iowa for delivering a victory for honesty in government and for the Constitution..."



"I'm not going to do the scream this time..."



"Well, we’re going to take this enthusiasm and go right to New Hampshire tonight."

While entrance polls prior to the caucus showed Dean with a very slim lead over Clinton going in, pundits believe that Feingold's better appeal to Daschle, Biden, and Grayson supporters, his nonstop campaigning in the state, and a last-minute, under-the-radar surge in polling numbers brought his candidacy over the top. Clinton's campaign was disorganized throughout the state and in many caucus precincts failed to even meet the 15% threshold for delegates. Biden and Daschle ended their campaigns tonight and have yet to endorse a candidate.

Suffolk NH Tracking Poll
Clinton 33%
Feingold 25%
Dean 19%
Patrick 10%
          Gallup National Tracking Poll
Clinton 31%
Feingold 25%
Dean 15%
Patrick 9%
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #101 on: April 09, 2014, 06:34:49 PM »

10 January 2012: D-Day


The week prior to the New Hampshire primary provided plenty of fodder for political pundits. Facing declining poll numbers in the Granite State, Governor Patrick ceased campaigning in the state he had once hoped would provide him a regional advantage, and instead decided to spend the next two weeks in South Carolina. Senator Obama, a close Patrick ally, is also touring South Carolina as a surrogate.

Senator Feingold's momentum going into the primary was halted by a lackluster performance in the NBC debate on Saturday. Both Senator Clinton and Secretary Dean attacked Feingold for his frequent voting against the Democratic caucus in the Senate, accusing the Senator of being an ineffective legislator. For her part, Clinton sought to stake out a middle ground on foreign policy, stating that she supported the wars in Iraq and Libya but "opposed their execution." However, polling showed that voters found this explanation convoluted and evasive, which Dean did not hesitate in pointing out during the debate.

A last-minute October Surprise may have come from on Monday when Clinton became teary-eyed while campaigning in a coffee shop in Portsmouth, NH. Some thought it might have been Clinton's Muskie moment, but others thought it showed an empathetic side to the candidate who suffers from a cold and calculating public image.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS (99.9% REPORTING): CLINTON 36.54%, DEAN 36.53%, FEINGOLD 15.9%, PATRICK 10.4%, GRAYSON 0.5%

Despite only achieving a 3-vote margin of victory over Dean (the second-closest election in New Hampshire history), neither the news media nor the Clinton campaign hesitated to declare a winner. The Dean campaign announced that they would request a recount under New Hampshire law, which will likely take 1-2 weeks to process.

Rasmussen SC Primary Poll:
Clinton 32%
Patrick 28%
Dean 14%
Feingold 13%
          ABC/WaPo National Poll:
Clinton 39%
Feingold 18%
Dean 17%
Patrick 15%
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #102 on: April 10, 2014, 05:48:30 PM »

January 2012: Three Strikes...

SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY RESULTS (99.8% REPORTING): PATRICK 38.2%, CLINTON 35.9%, DEAN 15.2%, FEINGOLD 9.9%, GRAYSON 0.4%


While Patrick's strategy of going all-in in the South Carolina paid off for the time being, it could not have been successful without a little help from a former President. When asked about the Patrick campaign's surge in the polls, former President Clinton made a comment that was perceived as comparing the Governor to 1984 and 1988 presidential candidate Jesse Jackson, which many African-American voters found to be insulting. The disappointment in the South Carolina primary, coupled with the results of a hand recount revealing that Dean had actually won the New Hampshire primary by 28 votes, leaves Clinton as a very fragile frontrunner having lost the first three contests to three different candidates. While Clinton hoped to reestablish herself as the presumptive nominee with a win in Florida, the refusal of the other candidates to campaign in the state due to the DNC depriving Florida of delegates to the national convention made the victory bittersweet.

FLORIDA BEAUTY CONTEST RESULTS: CLINTON 51.0%, PATRICK 23.5%, FEINGOLD 15.2%, DEAN 8.4%, GRAYSON 1.6%

Meanwhile in Congressional news, proposed legislation ostensibly for the purpose of targeting internet privacy has received massive protests after many websites drew public attention to the legislation, which they believe to be a Trojan Horse for government regulation of the internet and freedom of speech. Speaker Pelosi reluctantly canceled a vote on the legislation after she and other congressmen received thousands of calls from constituents concerned over civil liberties. Dean has thus far been the only candidate to publicly come out against the legislation, criticizing Clinton for having initially sponsored a similar proposal in the Senate.

Current DNC Delegate Count*:
Clinton 41
Dean 32
Feingold 20
Patrick 19
          FOX News National Poll:
Clinton 36%
Patrick 24%
Dean 17%
Feingold 12%

*Not counting superdelegates
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #103 on: April 12, 2014, 06:08:39 PM »
« Edited: April 12, 2014, 08:29:11 PM by SPC »

February 2012: Divide et Impera



Clinton 277
Feingold 200
Dean 95
Patrick 62

While the Clinton campaign did achieve setbacks with caucus losses to Dean and Feingold throughout the month of February, her campaign reestablished her position as the frontrunner with landslide primary victories in Missouri, Arizona, and Michigan. Clinton's three remaining challengers met in Boston in mid-February, presumably with the intention of uniting behind one candidate. However, ideological and personal differences between the three candidates made the meeting inconclusive.

Going into Super Tuesday next week, the Clinton campaign has opted for a strategy of ignoring the caucus states in favor of targeting delegate-rich contests in Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Virginia. Massachusetts is seen as an increasingly important contest since a Clinton victory in Patrick's home state would effectively end his campaign. Polling showed the contest as a dead-heat between the two candidates, but Senator Warren's late endorsement of Clinton is considered likely to give her the advantage. Meanwhile, Feingold has focused his campaign increasingly on Ohio, hoping that a victory there would prove that he can compete outside of caucus states. The Allen campaign has begun running attack ads against Clinton in Ohio and Virginia, which some consider to be an attempt to influence the primary results.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #104 on: April 12, 2014, 06:44:36 PM »

Not to be a nitpicker, but shouldn't NH be red for Hilldawg?
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #105 on: April 12, 2014, 08:22:46 PM »

Not to be a nitpicker, but shouldn't NH be red for Hilldawg?

The disappointment in the South Carolina primary, coupled with the results of a hand recount revealing that Dean had actually won the New Hampshire primary by 28 votes, leaves Clinton as a very fragile frontrunner having lost the first three contests to three different candidates.

Thanks for catching that though.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #106 on: April 12, 2014, 08:27:20 PM »

This is excellent. Please continue!
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #107 on: April 13, 2014, 10:36:55 AM »

March 2012:



Clinton 921*
Feingold 416
Dean 194
Patrick 82

*excluding superdelegates

Faced with a double-digit deficit in polls of his home state, Patrick withdrew from the primaries shortly before Super Tuesday and endorsed Clinton's campaign. This move ensured Clinton's victories in most of the day's primaries and may have given Clinton enough African-American support to overcome Feingold in Ohio. With an overwhelming delegate lead and endorsements from a majority of superdelegates, Clinton has essentially become the presumptive nominee. While Feingold and Dean have both suspended their campaigns, neither has endorsed Clinton. The Clinton campaign has since entered general election mode, focusing especially on large states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

ABC/WaPo Poll:
Allen 51%
Clinton 44%



Allen 214
Clinton 213
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #108 on: April 15, 2014, 02:30:32 PM »

April 2012: The Heat is On


With the verdict of the Democratic primaries no longer in doubt, the President's campaign has wasted no time in seeking to define his opponent. Using his large cash-on-hand advantage built up over the past year, the Allen campaign has virtually flooded the airwaves of swing states with ads criticizing Clinton's poor Senate attendance record and lack of substantive legislative accomplishment. The Clinton campaign exhaused most of its finances during the primary season, and thus lacks the ability to effectively combat attack ads. However, Clinton has recently shifted the emphasis of her campaign to be less focused on her Senate record and more centered on the prosperity of the Clinton presidency.

Meanwhile, following a gaffe by Vice-President McCain suggesting that war with the Russians was imminent over their actions in Syria, leaked media reports have revealed that the Allen campaign is privately vetting replacements for the 75-year old VP, including Secretary of State Mitt Romney (R-MA), former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), and Secretary of Defense Condoleeza Rice (R-CA). The Allen adminstration has denied these reports and insists that McCain will stay on as VP.

The revelation of Secret Service solicitation of prostitutes enveloped the Administration in a minor scandal, but the dismissal of the Secret Services agents involved may put a rest to the issue.

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Kevin
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« Reply #109 on: April 15, 2014, 07:37:51 PM »

Hey SPC I enjoy your timeline so far! It's Very good!

Just wondering are you going to be coming out with polls for the 2012 Senate and Governors races too?

It would be interesting to see where those lead as well.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #110 on: April 15, 2014, 08:17:51 PM »

Hey SPC I enjoy your timeline so far! It's Very good!

Just wondering are you going to be coming out with polls for the 2012 Senate and Governors races too?

It would be interesting to see where those lead as well.

I'll put out more of those as Election Day comes closer. Democrats are optimistic about taking the Senate this year since many vulnerable incumbents such as Santorum, Steele, and Kean are up this year, in addition to open seats in Arizona, Montana, Nevada, and Rhode Island. Republicans in turn hope to target Nelson, Stabenow, and Kaine in addition to open seats in Connecticut and Wisconsin. In the House, while Republicans do not have many seats to capture in order to reclaim the majority, their loss of state houses in big states has made redistricting a big hurdle to overcome. Democrats are favored to unseat Governor McCrory, while Republicans are favored in the open Montana gubernatorial election.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #111 on: April 17, 2014, 04:30:12 PM »

May 2012: Recoil


In what many voters see as a potential bellweather for the November elections, Governor Terry Goddard (D-AZ) narrowly survived a recall effort orchestrated in response to his call for strict gun control measures in the aftermath of the Tucson shooting. While neither President Allen nor Senator Clinton directly campaigned in the race, millions of dollars from interest groups such as the National Rifle Association, the Brady Campaign, and Mayor Michael Bloomberg poured into the state on behalf of their preferred candidate. While some observers believe that a stronger nominee than former Congressman Matt Salmon (R-AZ) could have defeated Goddard, the Clinton campaign has wasted no time in devoting resources into the state.

Meanwhile, on the one-year anniversary of the death of bin Laden, President Allen made a special trip to Afghanistan, making a deal with President Karzai to extend America's role in Afghanistan past the 2014 deadline for withdrawal. Karzai's acquiescence came as somewhat of a surprise, given Maliki's refusal to allow a similar agreement with Iraq last year.

Pennsylvania Senate (Rasmussen):
Matthews 48%
Santorum 41%
Pennsylvania President (Rasmussen):
Allen 47%
Clinton 41%

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OnlyAlb
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« Reply #112 on: April 17, 2014, 04:47:19 PM »

Good Timeline. I like McCain as VP but Allen kind of puts me off. Not sure who I would support in this timeline, Allen or Clinton.
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PPT Spiral
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« Reply #113 on: April 17, 2014, 05:25:21 PM »

I've been following this for a while and I must say that your work is quite good here. How long do you think you'll be continuing this timeline?
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #114 on: April 17, 2014, 06:40:14 PM »

I've been following this for a while and I must say that your work is quite good here. How long do you think you'll be continuing this timeline?

After 2014 it may get a little spotty since I won't have a IRL template to go by, but I plan to continue to at least the 2016 election, if not 2020.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #115 on: April 19, 2014, 09:28:38 AM »

June 2012: Crossing the Rubicon


The House of Representatives voted for hold Attorney General Ayotte in contempt of the law due to her refusal to hand over critical documents related to Operation Fast and Furious. Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) has said that the program only illustrates the need to reinstate the Assault Weapons Ban in the United States, while Republican leaders have accused the other side of trying to earn political points off of the death of a border agent. While many have sensed that Ayotte's resignation is imminent over the issue, President Allen has insisted that she will continue to serve out the remainder of her term.

The Supreme Court overturned part of an Alabama law designed to crack down on illegal immigration, clarifying that enforcement of immigration law was in the purview of the federal government. However, many civil libertarians are outraged that the ruling upheld the constitutionality of asking suspected illegal immigrants of proof of residency. In a surprising about-face, President Allen announced that a federal immigration reform law would be a top priority for his administration. While some swing voters have responded favorably to this announcement, conservatives believe that Allen sold out on the immigration issue, and liberals think that this is merely an empty promise made to win the election.

Protests in Egypt have reintensified after the decisive victory of Ahmed Shafik in the presidential election, albeit not to the same degree as in January 2011. While the fear of Islamist extremists has been used as an ad hoc explanation for the victory, many observers believe that the election was rigged to favor the military's chosen successor for embattled President Hosni Mubarak.

NBC/WSJ National Poll:
Allen 47%
Clinton 44%

Arizona Senate (PPP)Sad
Flake 43%
Carmona 41%

Arizona President (PPP)Sad
Allen 49%
Clinton 46%
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #116 on: April 20, 2014, 07:06:10 PM »

Good Timeline. I like McCain as VP but Allen kind of puts me off. Not sure who I would support in this timeline, Allen or Clinton.
I am not really sure who I would support either. George Allen hasn't been too bad on domestic policy, but his foreign policy has been a bit too hardline for my tastes. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton might not be all that different on foreign policy than Allen.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #117 on: April 22, 2014, 03:48:14 PM »

July 2012

Tragedy struck the nation when a deranged individual opened fire on a movie theater during the premiere of The Dark Knight Rises, in which Bruce Wayne must defeat the criminal mastermind Whytewater. In response to the tragedy, Congressional leadership finally came to an agreement regarding a measure to impose stricter background checks on those seeking to acquire weapons. Speaker Pelosi was able to narrowly pass the measure 214-212 in the House, with both Blue Dogs and progressives dissenting. However, after realization that his own caucus would not vote for cloture on the measure, Majority Leader McConnell was forced to withdraw the bill.

In foreign affairs, Secretary Romney managed to get into a minor controversy during a foreign trip when he made what was perceived to be a slight to the British in their handling of the Summer Olympic Games. The State Department quickly repudiated his comments and assured the United Kingdom that Romney was not speaking for the United States.

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is rumored to have narrowed her short list to a few names. The most frequently discussed of these are Governor Tom Vilsack (D-IA), former Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN), and Governor Creigh Deeds (D-VA), although sources close to Clinton say that she is considering other possibilities.

CBS News/NYT National Poll:
Clinton 47%
Allen 46%
SUSA Florida President:
Allen 48%
Clinton 43%
SUSA Florida Senate:
Crist 48%
Meek 32%
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #118 on: April 25, 2014, 01:04:57 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2014, 05:32:04 PM by SPC »

August 2012 Part One: Allahu Ackbar


In the race for control of the Senate, Democrats may have a tougher time than the map indicates. In addition to having to deal with three open seats with top Republican candidates, they may also need to pour additional resources into Pennsylvania, a race that nominee Chris Matthews had previously sported high single-digit leads over Republican Whip Rick Santorum. While hammering Santorum on his residency in Virginia, it was recently revealed that Matthews' primary residence is actually in suburban Maryland. Matthews defended himself against the carpetbagging allegations, stating that he has deep roots in Philadelphia. This controversy, in addition to dismissive remarks Matthews made earlier about Western Pennsylvanians, has made the race competitive once again for the incumbent.  

Meanwhile, Senator Clinton encountered controversy during an overseas trip when she stated that Israel should revert back to its 1967 borders, which elicited condemnation from AIPAC, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and other Jewish interest groups. Clinton insists that her remarks were taken out of context, though Republican candidates have been quick to take advantage of the remarks. Clinton's next campaign stop is in Kings Bay, Georgia, which many speculate will be the site of an important announcement.

CNN National Poll
Allen 52%
Clinton 45%
    Wisconsin Senate (Marquette)
Walker 48%
Baldwin 43%
    Wisconsin President (Marquette)
Allen 50%
Clinton 43%
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #119 on: April 26, 2014, 06:15:54 PM »

August 2012 II: Sisterly Acrimony


Clinton unveiled her choice to be the next Vice-President of the United States in front of the USS Maryland the day after the end of the London Olympics, Congressman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD). Clinton cited Van Hollen's advocacy for progressive causes and experience as Chairman of the House Budget Committee as his qualifications. Republicans have attacked Van Hollen for his support for Palestinian statehood as well as his frequent appropriation of pork toward his district.

While the Clinton campaign received a minor bounce in the polls after the Van Hollen announcement, their fortunes were not as great for the Democratic National Convention. Held in Philadelphia, PA, major speakers included Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI), former Secretary of State Joe Biden (D-DE), Governor Eliot Spitzer (D-NY), Senator Barack Obama (D-IL), Senator John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH), and keynote speaker Governor Creigh Deeds (D-VA). Former President Bill Clinton only gave a short speech prior to Hillary Clinton's acceptance, which was seen as a reaction to the former President's incendiary remarks about African-Americans during the primary campaign. The convention encountered criticism for focusing on esoteric platitudes and generic criticisms of the current Administration rather than proposing unique solutions. A particularly embarrassing moment came when Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa had to call three voice votes in order to reaffirm the platform's commitment to Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, despite the Nays audibly overpowering the Ayes. Additionally, most of the speakers seemed more focused on promoting their own ambitions for higher office than Clinton's candidacy. The most remembered speech of the convention was a surprise appearance by comedian Bill Cosby, in which the comedian gave an incoherent speech lambasting the Allen administration for bombing Libya and wanting to bring back segregation. Despite being positioned immediately preceding Van Hollen's acceptance speech, the Cosby speech was glossed over and not referenced for the remainder of the convention.

Gallup National Poll
Allen 47%
Clinton 46%
          Quinnipiac Ohio Poll
Allen 50%
Clinton 44%
          PPP Missouri Poll
Allen 53%
Clinton 41%
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Potatoe
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« Reply #120 on: April 26, 2014, 06:23:10 PM »

Because it isn't just a Convention without Bill Cosby. Tongue
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #121 on: April 28, 2014, 05:17:33 PM »

IIRC Van Hollens was born in Karachi, Pakistan, but both parents were American so that shouldn't pose a problem. Interesting pick! Keep up the awesome work, SPC!

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Maxwell
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« Reply #122 on: April 28, 2014, 05:19:01 PM »

It seems like a Democratic reflection of the Ryan pick. I feel like Allen will be re-elected.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #123 on: April 28, 2014, 08:29:04 PM »

It seems like a Democratic reflection of the Ryan pick. I feel like Allen will be re-elected.
It's an interesting approach.

McCain also made some Biden-like gaffes.

Cosby gave the Eastwood speech.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #124 on: April 29, 2014, 11:16:27 AM »

RNC 2012: What Happens in Vegas...


The Republicans held their convention shortly afterward, featuring speakers such as Governor Rick Perry (R-TX), Senator Tom Kean (R-NJ), Congressman and Senate candidate Eric Cantor (R-VA), Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT), and keynote speaker, Senate candidate, and Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL). While neither his brother nor his father were present at the convention, former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) delivered a rousing speech touting President Allen's muscular foreign policy and economic prosperity, while accusing Clinton of wanting to lead America's allies into the wilderness. Vice-President McCain charismatically declared that "...thanks to President Allen, Main Street is alive and Osama bin Laden is dead," a line that earned a standing ovation from the convention delegates. Many speakers were quick to tout the state of the American eocnomy compared to when President Kerry left office, which Democrats have alleged is a case of blaming Allen's predecessor.

The Republican convention appeared to have a much greater effect on the polls than the Democratic convention, with the President pushing high single-digit leads in most national polls. Democratic analysts have dismissed this as a post-convention bump that will fade after a week.



Allen 262
Clinton 195

CNN National Poll
Allen 52%
Clinton 46%
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