President Kerry and on...

[SPC]

November-December 2014: Cut the Deck

In response to his party's dismal performance in the midterms in part due to scandals surrounding the Justice Department, Chris Christie stepped down as Attorney General. President Allen announced that former FCC chairman Richard Wiley would be his replacement, who was hastily confirmed by the lame-duck Senate.

As expected, Secretary Rice's attempt to negotiate a peace in the conflict in the Middle East fell through, although attacks on Iran and Syria have been scaled down to occasional air strikes. Shia forces on the ground contributed most toward recapturing ISIS territory, while ISIS has largely reverted back toward insurgent tactics.

The ousted Senate Republicans held their leadership election for the next Congress. Sensing imminent defeat for re-election as Caucus Whip, Senator Michael Steele withheld his name from the vote. In response, Senator Jim DeMint announced that he would seek the Whip position rather than challenging Senator Lamar Alexander for Minority Leader. Alexander returned the favor by dissuading other prospective candidates from entering the Whip race, ensuring DeMint an easy election.

In the burgeoning race to succeed President Allen, the only candidates who have officially announced are Governors Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) and Gary Locke (D-WA), and neurosurgeon Ben Carson (R-MD). However, many of the leading candidates have been raising money for their leadership PACs while being coy about their future intentions. While Senator Elizabeth Warren's populist demeanor and excellent endorsement track record in the last cycle has catapulted her to the top of many early polls, Democratic insiders are said to be covertly searching for an alternative to a candidate they perceive to be a general election time-bomb.

CNN National Poll (Dems): Senator Elizabeth Warren 20% Governor Jerry Brown 15% Senator Russ Feingold 13% Senator Barack Obama 10% Governor Cory Booker 8% Senator Mark Warner 5% Governor Brian Schweitzer 5% Governor Gary Locke 1%

CNN National Poll (GOP): Secretary Mitt Romney 58% Senator Michael Steele 9% Governor Rick Perry 2% Vice-President John McCain 1% Dr. Ben Carson 1%

[SPC]

January-February 2015: Meet the New Boss

The Democratic takeover of the Senate did not significantly affect Washington politics, with the main consequence being gridlock occuring as a consequence of Republican-led filibusters rather than Democratic-led filibusters. This was mainly demostrated as a consequence of the latest budget standoff, in which Senate Democrats were forced after three weeks of negotiations to accomodate the objections of Senators Collins, Snowe, Steele, Wilson, DeWine, and Crist in order to end the filibuster. In response to his recent frustrations, Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) has floated the idea of unilaterally eliminating the filibuster, which has been criticized by numerous Republican lawmakers as an infringement of basic republican principles. Commentator Bill Kristol pointed out the hypocrisy of Reid's position, citing the record number of filibusters launched by Reid during his previous four years as Senate Minority Leader. Strategists believe that the attacks on the filibuster may help the Republicans take back the chamber in 2016, when many red-state Democrats will be facing uphill re-election battles.

The Democrats also attempted to enact a new NSA spying reform bill, but the objections of many national security Democrats killed the bill in the House of Representatives.

Despite virtually every prospective 2016 contender spending substantial time in Georgia for the last two months, Governor Deal was able to successfully win re-election to a second term over state Senator Jason Carter, albeit by a narrow 51-49 margin. Republican strategists have already interpreted the results as a sign that voters may be experiencing buyer's remorse over voting Democrats in two months ago, although low turnout among traditional Democratic constituencies has been identified as a factor.

[PPT Spiral]

Great stuff!

I wonder if Willard will be able to keep up his tremendous lead.

[SPC]

March-April 2015: Cold Feet

The presidential field gained a few more matriculants with the entry of former Governor Rick Perry (R-TX) on the Republican side and Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) on the Democratic side. However, most other serious contenders appear to be waiting for the summer legislative recess in order to announce their candidacies. Some conservatives disenchanted with former Secretary Romney have started to give a serious look at Perry as their standard bearer. However, most large Republican donors seem resigned to Romney's presumptive candidacy. Meanwhile, despite poor approval ratings for President Allen, Democrats have been frantically searching for a nominee that could defeat Romney in a general election. Senators Feingold and Warren are seen as too extreme to appeal to a broader electorate, Senator Obama appears too connected to Washington gridlock, and Governor Brown's (D-CA) age is seen as a likely obstacle. Some have mentioned 2012 nominee Hillary Clinton as a potential candidate, although Clinton has dismissed speculation that she would run again.

In foreign affairs, the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner by Ukrainian rebels provoked stern condemnation from American officials, and led a renewed calls for sanctions against the Russian government. Frustrated neoconservatives have used the incident to condemn Secretary Rice's negotiations last year as ineffective, and have even compared her to Neville Chamberlain. Democrats too have criticized Allen's perceived incompetence over the matter, although the incident appears to be attributable to a mistake on the part of the Ukrainian rebels.

Iowa Dems (PPP) Feingold 21% Obama 15% Brown 11% Booker 9% Schweitzer 7% Warren 6% Warner 3% Locke 3%

Iowa GOP (PPP) Romney 55% Steele 10% Perry 9% Carson 6%

[tmthforu94]

Just read through this - wonderful timeline!

[SPC]

Great stuff!

I wonder if Willard will be able to keep up his tremendous lead.

Just read through this - wonderful timeline!

Thank you! We shall see how the 2016 Republican primary unfolds...

[SPC]

May-June 2015: Charlie Foxtrot

With the economy undergoing a recovery from the Little Recession of 2014, tight-money advocates have suggested that the Federal Reserve should begin to enact contractionary monetary policy in order to prevent the development of another bubble. However, Fed Chairman Cain has dismissed such concerns as "unsubstantiated," warning that the economy was too fragile at the current moment to consider raising rates. More worrisome for public confidence was Cain's apparent lack of basic economic knowledge during a congressional hearing, preferring to answer questions about Keynesian and monetarist theories regarding the business cycle with catchphrases and suggestions that Congress enact a sales tax to combat inflation.

With both Houses of Congress in the hands of the other party, President Allen appears resigned to making education reform his signature accomplishment of his last two years in office. With Secretary Bush having strictly enforced the implementation of Common Core standards in all 50 states, the White House awaits the results of May nationwide standardized testing in order to seek vindication for their accomplishment.

Rhode Island became the fifth state in the union to legalize cannabis for recreational purposes, and the first state to do so via legislative action rather than popular initiative. Attorney General Wiley has continued to prosecute individuals using marijuana in the affected states, with perhaps even a stricter degree of enforcement than in states without legal cannabis. Some congressional Democrats have proposed legislation to deprive the Drug Enforcement Administration of funds to enforce federal marijuana laws in legal states, but leadership has killed such legislation, fearing that such legislation would be politically perilous. Despite having opposed the initiative in 2014, Governor Brown has been the leading critic of the Justice Department on this issue, arguing that his state should be free to enact drug policy in the manner the voters see fit.

With Congress taking a summer recess from not legislating, the floodgates have opened for members to enter the wide-open 2016 contest. Four more Democratic Senators officially entered the contest. While Obama, Warren, and Warner had all been unofficially campaigning for months, the entry of Senator Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) caught many observers by surprise. Advisors close to Cuomo have disclosed that his father's fateful decisions not to run in 1992 may have influenced his decision. It remains to be seen whether Cuomo's candidacy will stand up to scrutiny by the left-wing of the party, given his rather unimpressive record as Hillary Clinton's successor.

NH Dems (WMUR/UNH) Cuomo 26% Feingold 18% Warren 15% Obama 13% Brown 8% Booker 7% Locke 6% Schweitzer 3% Warner 2%

NH GOP (WMUR/UNH) Romney 47% Steele 14% Carson 10% Perry 7%

General Election Head-to-Heads (Fox News) Romney 51% Cuomo 42% Romney 50% Feingold 42% Romney 51% Warren 37%

[OnlyAlb]

This is my favorite timeline on this site.

[SPC]

July 2015: Fireworks

Results of the standadized testing proved to be a disappointment for Secretary Bush, as the national averages for 2015 were far below those of the previous year, let alone the official expectations of the Common Core program. Bush has defend the program, stating that it could "take years" before the results of Common Core manifest themselves in student performance. Pundits have seized on this comment as an example of shifting the goalposts, showing it juxtaposed with clips of Bush from 2013-14 claiming Common Core could deliver immediate results. 

Various suits against the Justice Department for their continued enforcement of the Drug Control Act in states which have since legalized recreational cannabis have had mixed results, with some Courts finding that enforcement exceeds the scope of the Commerce Clause and others upholding the precedent set by Gonzales v. Raich. Both sides intend to appeal the respective decisions, which are expected to eventually be settled by the Supreme Court.

The Democrats held their first primary debate, with Governors Brown and Booker officially entering the fray. With Cuomo's meteoric rise in the polls, naturally most of the candidates aimed their criticism at the frontrunner's perceived conciliation of Republicans during his Senate tenure, especially on matters related to foreign affairs and the budget. In his defense, Cuomo pointed to Romney's expertise in those matters and stated that the Democratic nominee will need to be able to compromise in order to be viable in the general election.

On the Republican side, Senator Steele became the third candidate to officially enter the contest. With the Democratic candidates have surprising success with fundraising, large Republican donors have pressed Romney to enter the race sooner rather than latter. Secretary Romney has remained firm that he will not make a decision before Labor Day.

National Dems (Quinnipiac) Cuomo 28% Feingold 15% Obama 14% Brown 11% Locke 8% Warren 7% Schweitzer 4% Warner 3% Booker 2%

National GOP (Quinnipiac) Romney 50% Steele 19% Perry 6% Carson 4%

President Allen Job Approval (Quinnipiac) Approve 40% Disapprove 53%

[SPC]

This is my favorite timeline on this site.

Thanks, I appreciate the feedback!

[NHI]

This is my favorite timeline on this site.

Thanks, I appreciate the feedback!

Hear hear!

[Jerseyrules]

This is incredible - I love the flipped roles with Romney as the Clinton analogue.  Looking forward to see the next update!

[SPC]

August-September 2015: Zugzwang

In what some call an attempt by the White House to divert media attention from the Common Core rollout and the open investigations into the Justice and Veteran Affairs Departments, President Allen delivered a press conference in which he called for the implementation of bipartisan financial reform legislation to avert economic crises as experienced in 2008 and 2014. The President's action is believed to have put an end to efforts by Senate Republicans to prevent the Consumer Protection Act, sponsored by Senator Warren and Congressman Brad Sherman (D-CA), from reaching a vote. The legislation passed the House 305-128 and the Senate 60-40, obtaining the President's signature shortly before the end of August. While the passage of Warren-Sherman demonstrated a rare incident of effectiveness on the part of the 114th Congress, the act did not come without its share of criticism. Despite overtures by leadership of both parties, only a handful of Republicans crossed the aisle to vote for the legislation. A few prominent Democrats, most notably Senators Feingold and Cuomo, also voted against the legislation, albeit for opposing reasons.

As expected, Mitt Romney finally launched his candidacy on Labor Day on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert. In a move seemingly designed to distance himself from the anemic Allen, Romney made clear his stark opposition to the Warren-Sherman act, rebutting that the financial industry does not need a hastily-planned destabilizing action while trying to mitigate the effects of the previous year's panic. Many of the Democratic contenders, most notably Senators Warren and Obama, blasted this comment as evidence of Romney's (and Cuomo's) elitism, as they allege that the crisis would not have occurred if lending institutions had been properly regulated. Romney's campaign was immediately faced with the decision regarding whether or not to seriously contest the Iowa caucuses. Romney had invested several million dollars in Iowa in 2008 only to lose to Allen. On the other hand, Senator Talent (R-MO), a close Romney confidante, believes that failure to win the first contest would irreparably damage the candidate's aura of inevitability. Members of the Iowa Republican Party, still bitter about Romney's decision to skip their August straw poll, have lent support to Ben Carson to little avail.

As a noted advocate of drug policy reform, Governor Cory Booker called a special session of the New Jersey legislature in order to vote on a proposal to make New Jersey the sixth state to legalize cannabis, and thus join the Brown v. Wiley suit expected to determine the legitimacy of federal marijuana laws in legal states. Booker was able to secure passage only after backroom negotiations guaranteeing tens of millions of dollars in transportation funds to the districts of key state legislators and saving a cat from a nearby tree.

It was revealed that Senator John Walsh (D-MT) plagiarized from numerous sources when writing his master's thesis for the United States Army College. However, calls for his resignation have been tempered due to concerns that Governor Rick Hill (R-MT) would appoint a Republican replacement. Republicans have called out Democratic hypocrisy on this issue, although polls show that the American public largely does not know who John Walsh is, much less care about the originality of his master's thesis.

Also, Congressman Steve Stockman (R-TX) and Gary Locke began and ended their respective quixotic campaigns, but nobody really cares.

National Dems (Fox News) Cuomo 23% Obama 17% Warren 15% Brown 13% Feingold 11% Booker 9% Warner 9% Schweitzer 0%

National GOP (Fox News) Romney 54% Steele 22% Perry 9% Carson 6% Stockman 3%

[Maxwell]

Interesting that Locke left the race, his numbers weren't too bad (8%, ahead of Warner). Still, the Dem field looks like a mess.

What do Iowa and New Hampshire polls look like at this point?

[hurricanehink]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Genius!!

[SPC]

This is incredible - I love the flipped roles with Romney as the Clinton analogue.  Looking forward to see the next update!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Genius!!

Thank you!!

Interesting that Locke left the race, his numbers weren't too bad (8%, ahead of Warner). Still, the Dem field looks like a mess.

What do Iowa and New Hampshire polls look like at this point?

Locke had anemic fundraising, which would have made him DOA in a field with candidates backed by either Wall Street, netroots, or multimillionaire cell phone investors. There is still the possibility of another dark horse entrant though...

The numbers in early states essentially reflect national numbers, give or take a few points. Here are the latest Iowa and NH numbers, courtesy of Rasmussen:

Iowa

Feingold 19% Cuomo 19% Obama 12% Booker 12% Warren 11% Brown 8% Warner 5% Schweitzer 3%

Romney 47% Steele 18% Perry 10% Carson 8% Stockman 0%

NH

Cuomo 25% Warren 19% Feingold 15% Booker 14% Obama 10% Brown 7% Warner 4% Schweitzer 1%

Romney 53% Steele 17% Carson 9% Perry 6% Stockman 5%

[SPC]

October 2015: Hands in the Cookie Jar

American relations reached an unprecedented new low when two undercover CIA operatives were discovered crossing the border from Poland into Kaliningrad. Russian President Putin has vowed to defend Russia from the American imperialist interlopers and put the individuals on trial for espionage. The White House dispatched Secretary Rice to Moscow in hopes of securing a deal to release the two Americans, although prospects do not appear bright for an expedited release.

Senator Cuomo's bid for the Democratic nomination hit a major setback due to media revelations of impropriety occuring during his tenure as state Attorney General. Reports have revealed that then-Attorney General Cuomo disbanded an independent commission that he himself authorized to investigate corruption in New York politics due to incriminating evidence found implicating allies of Cuomo in the state legislature in a scheme granting tax breaks to campaign contributors. Governor Brown, himself a former state Attorney General, lambasted Cuomo during one of the primary debates, affirming that "if the American people wanted a President to have a history of political favoritism on their resume, they should elect Chris Christie." Brown's stellar debate performance may have been well-received if the public had the attention span to remember who Chris Christie was.

Speaking of Chris Christie, the former Attorney General's most notorious sparring partner, Congressman Jack Conway (D-KY), decided to launch a quixotic bid for the Democratic nomination.

Iowa Dems (PPP) Feingold 18% Booker 18% Obama 14% Brown 10% Cuomo 8% Schweitzer 7% Warren 5% Warner 4% Conway 2%

Iowa GOP (PPP) Romney 38% Steele 16% Perry 16% Carson 10% Stockman 1%

[SPC]

November 2015: From Russia with Love

Secretary Rice's mission to secure the release of Americans held by Russia proved fruitful, much to the surprise of the pundit class. The release gave the administration an ephemeral boost in its public image. However, reports that the two American hostages were tortured by their Russian captors lent credibility to those analysts proclaiming a new Cold War, including former Secretary of State Mitt Romney, who had previously labeled Russia as the "number one geopolitical threat" to the United States. A handful of congressmen demanded a secret subpoena of the two officials to determine what classified information the hostages may have revealed under torture.

Meanwhile, less reported in the American media was the similar hero's welcome given to President Putin in Moscow for securing a withdrawal of American forces from Syria and cessation of both economic sanctions against Russia and development aid to Ukraine. Leaked reports from White House cabinet meetings report that both Vice-President McCain and Defense Secretary Lieberman were "livid" about these undisclosed terms of the agreement. Additionally, some were frustrated that Rice failed to secure the extradition of Edward Snowden along with the two captives.

New reports revealed that the CIA has been engaging in covert surveillance of the Senate Intelligence Committee has heightened the animosity of members of Congress toward the surveillance state. Virtually all Democratic members of Congress have demanded the resignation of CIA director Negroponte for the violation of privacy, conducted in conjunction with the NSA. Erstwhile defender of warrantless surveillance Dianne Feinstein has led this new charge for Negroponte's resignation, calling his actions an "unprecedented incident of the CIA involving itself in domestic politics."

NH Dems (Boston Globe) Booker 27% Feingold 19% Cuomo 16% Obama 11% Brown 9% Conway 7% Warren 4% Warner 1% Schweitzer 1%

NH GOP (Boston Globe) Romney 47% Steele 20% Carson 8% Stockman 7% Perry 6%

[SPC]

December 2015: Lord of the Flies

Going into the caucuses, the Democratic field appears as divided as ever. With Cuomo's ethics problems sinking his bid, many of his supporters see Booker as their next best alternative. Thus, many of the candidates directed their attacks toward Booker's record as Mayor and Governor during the final debate, accusing him of being in bed with Wall Street. However, Brown had the best debate performance, sticking to his achievements as Governor and succinctly explaining his policy initiatives, including a payroll tax cut and making education, transportation, and transparency his top priorities in the Oval Office.

On the Republican side, the social conservatives who normally constitute a large portion of caucus goers appear to be split between supporting Romney and three opposing candidates. However, Romney's biggest threat appears to be from the coalition of fiscal conservatives and moderates reluctantly supporting Steele's candidacy. In an attempt to halt Steele's momentum, organizations backing Romney such as the Chamber of Commerce and the Club for Growth have hammed Steele on Iowa airwaves for frequently crossing the aisle to support Democratic policy initiatives, such as gun control and opposing the President's budget.

Nevertheless, the Romney camp is still fearful of a poor performance in the caucus, if Romney's decision to debate his opponents is indicative of anything. While Romney mostly sought to stay above the fray by catering to a general election audience, his position seated next to an empty chair (due to Stockman's mysterious last-minute withdrawal from the debate) subjected him to ample ridicule from late-night comedians. It remains to be seen what effect Congressman Steve King's (R-IA) endorsement of Carson will have on the race.

In what some are calling a sign of a slow news cycle, a motor vehicle accident resulting in four fatalities in San Bernadino, California caused by a driver impaired by cannabis and alcohol made national news, with pundits such as Sean Hannity and Nancy Grace literally demanding a federal investigation into the matter.

IA Dems (Des Moines Register) Feingold 20% Booker 19% Brown 17% Obama 13% Cuomo 10% Conway 5% Warren 2% Schweitzer 2% Warner 1%

IA GOP (Des Moines Register) Romney 35% Steele 30% Perry 14% Carson 6% Stockman 5%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I just read that and thought that Nancy Grace and Sean Hannity caused the accident . Hannity getting a DUI wouldn't shock me at all.

[Maxwell]

I'm excited for what's next! Go Steele and Brown!

What's the perception of Obama? I haven't heard much of him in this campaign.

[SPC]

I just read that and thought that Nancy Grace and Sean Hannity caused the accident . Hannity getting a DUI wouldn't shock me at all.

Haha. The denizens of this timeline couldn't be so fortunate, I suppose.

I'm excited for what's next! Go Steele and Brown!

What's the perception of Obama? I haven't heard much of him in this campaign.

Obama had been a darling of the progressive wing of the party ever since his convention speech in 2004. However, his popularity declined when he joined Senate leadership, with many progressives declaring him a "sellout" and backing Feingold and Warren instead. Obama had been making a comeback after his key role in passage of Warren-Sherman. However, Booker's meteoric rise hampered Obama's momentum, for obvious reasons...

[SPC]

A Tale of Two Cities

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS (100% REPORTING): BOOKER 28.5%; FEINGOLD 27.3%; BROWN 25.4%; OBAMA 12.3%; CUOMO 5.3%; CONWAY 1.0%          ROMNEY 31.9%; STEELE 30.2%; PERRY 17.5%; CARSON 11.3%; STOCKMAN 9.1%

"Tonight the people of Iowa chose pragmatism over partisanship, and we will continue to deliver that message to the rest of the country and to Washington!"



"Thank you, Iowa, for the great send-off you’re giving to us and to the others in this campaign. We’re going to change the White House and get America back on track."

To an extent, the Iowa caucus results for both parties stood as a repudiation of the results of their respective prior caucus. Unlike in 2012, when Feingold's candidacy was able to exploit last-minute momentum, Midwestern roots, and failure of many left-wing opponents to meet the 15% threshold, Feingold's support had been roughly constant all year and the crossover support he received from other candidates' supporters was more than outweighed by the collapse in support for Cuomo, which mostly benefited Booker and Brown. Booker's win solidifies his position as the frontrunner, albeit a very fragile one, going into the New Hampshire primary. Schweitzer and Warner ended their campaigns after barely registering in support.

On the Republican side, Romney was able to obtain the caucus victory he worked so hard for eight years ago, although with a margin much too close for the coronation many Republican figures had desired. Unlike in 2008, when support from social conservatives gave Allen needed momentum to win the caucuses, neither Perry nor Carson was able to coalesce that support into a caucus win. Steele pulled in a stellar performance in a caucus not typically known to reward moderate candidates, which some see as a response to Romney's characterization of himself as "severely conservative." Carson pulled out of the race after his poor showing and endorsed Steele for some inexplicable reason.

NH Dems (Suffolk Tracking) Booker 30% Feingold 19% Brown 14% Cuomo 12% Obama 9% Warren 9% Conway 6%	NH GOP (Suffolk Tracking) Romney 45% Steele 34% Perry 12%
National Dems (Gallup) Booker 25% Brown 20% Obama 13% Feingold 12% Cuomo 11% Warren 8% Conway 6%	National GOP (Gallup) Romney 42% Steele 35% Perry 8%

[SPC]

Live Free or Die

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS (100% REPORTING):          STEELE 48.1%; ROMNEY 47.6%; PERRY 4.3%          BOOKER 27.4%; FEINGOLD 16.9%; BROWN 16.5%; CUOMO 15.0%; OBAMA 13.6%; WARREN 7.5%; CONWAY 3.1%

"To Americans who believe in the future of this country, to those who stand in difference with us, it is time for something completely different. And we're going to bring it to them."

Perhaps due to the Democratic contest being a foregone conclusion, turnout in the Republican primary far exceeded anyone's expectations. This worked for the benefit of Steele, who was able to mobilize these thousands of Independent voters in order to win a upset victory in a contest Romney won eight years ago. It is clear now that Romney sees the Steele campaign as a serious threat, as Romney has now agreed to participate in a one-on-one debate with Steele, an offer that Romney had declined throughout the primary season.

On the Democratic side, Booker obtained an easy victory over his opponents. Feingold turned in a disappointing performance, owing to the siphoning of many independent voters to the Republican contest. However, aside from Conway, who withdrew the following morning, the biggest losers of the night were Cuomo and Warren, who both needed a good showing in New Hampshire to regain lost ground. However, both candidates have vowed to continue on until Super Tuesday in March, when they hope the Florida contest will enable a comeback.

National GOP (Rasmussen) Steele 44% Romney 43% Perry 10%	National Dems (Rasmussen) Booker 36% Feingold 23% Brown 15% Obama 8% Cuomo 8% Warren 7%	General Election Head-to-Heads (Rasmussen) Romney 46% Booker 45% Booker 46% Steele 37% Romney 44% Brown 36% Brown 39% Steele 37%
SC GOP (Mason-Dixon) Steele 47% Romney 42% Perry 8%	SC Dems (Mason-Dixon) Booker 39% Brown 19% Obama 11% Feingold 10% Cuomo 6% Warren 5%

[Jerseyrules]

Very interesting result.

Is Steele meant to be the Schweitzer analogue?