President Kerry and on...

[SPC]

I've been mulling starting this timeline for a while, but not sure if I had the commitment to finish it. Well, here it goes...

Election 2004

Senator John Kerry/Senator John Edwards 298 EV 61,689,926 50.4%
President George W. Bush/Vice President Dick Cheney 240 EV 59,381,122 48.6%

 
"...I'd like to thank the American people for delivering an impressive victory for government accountability, health care, and education tonight and I will deliver on those promises..."

[SPC]

Senate and House results:

Senate
Republicans 51 (+/- 0)
Democrats 47 (-1)
Independent 1 (+/- 0)
Pending 1 (LA)

House
Republicans 229 (+/- 0)
Democrats 205 (+1)
Independent 1 (+/- 0)

[SPC]

Potential 2008 Republican Hopefuls Head to Louisiana to Campaign for Vitter....






President-elect Kerry Conspicuously Absent from John Campaign...


Rasmussen: Vitter 53%, John 43%
Survey USA: Vitter 47%, John 46%

[SPC]

Yay, Majority Leader Daschle!

Not yet, unless a Republican switches parties...

[SPC]

I am working on the same type of timeline, actually. Just finished through 2012. This is an underused point of divergence.

That's interesting. I might have to take some creative inspiration from you.

[SPC]

Yay, Majority Leader Daschle! And in Louisiana, how much worse did Votter do in the Jungle Primary?

Vitter 48.9%
John 31.1%
Kennedy 15.2%

[SPC]

Louisiana: Vitter Wins Runoff; Silver Lining for Republicans


VITTER 52.9% JOHN 47.1%

[SPC]

Kerry Chooses His Cabinet:

Secretary of State: Joseph Biden


Secretary of the Treasury: Robert Reich


Secretary of Defense: John P. White


Attorney General: Eric Holder


Secretary of the Interior: Dave Freudenthal


Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Vilsack


Secretary of Commerce: Jeanne Shaheen


Secretary of Labor: George Miller


Secretary of Health and Human Services: Howard Dean


Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Shaun Donovan


Secretary of Transportation: Jim Gerlach


Secretary of Energy: Jeff Bingaman


Secretary of Education: Jim Hodges


Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Edward Powell


Secretary of Homeland Security: Wesley Clark

[SPC]

Interesting start, but I find an all-male cabinet very unlikely...

Thanks for the tip! The error has been retconned out.

[SPC]

January 2005:

Despite Chief Justice Rehnquist flubbing the inaugural oath, John Kerry is sworn in as President of the United States. President Kerry delivers his inaugural address, outlining his plans for health care reform and victory and eventual withdrawal from Iraq. However, congressional leaders Denny Hastert and Bill Frist have announced their intentions to prevent the passage of a public option in whatever health care plan is discussed.

Opinion of President Kerry?
Approve 61%
Disapprove 32%

In other news, Governor Mitt Romney announces a special election for Kerry's former Senate seat to occur in late June. Romney states that he will not contest the election himself. On the Democratic side, Congressman Michael Capuano and District Attorney Martha Coakley have expressed interest in the race, while no notable Republicans have announced their intentions.

[SPC]

June 2005:


In Congressional matters, after fierce negotiations in the Senate, the public option in health care, preferred by President Kerry, is replaced by a bill providing for an individual mandate in order to overcome a filibuster from Republicans and red-state Democrats. The individual mandate passes the Senate 55-45. All Democratic Senators except Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) vote in favor of the bill, while the bipartisan support from Senators Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), Arlen Specter (R-PA), Olympia Snowe (R-ME), Susan Collins (R-ME), John Warner (R-VA), John McCain (R-AZ), Mike DeWine (R-OH), and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) prove critical to the bill's passage. Speaker Hastert insists that the bill is "dead on arrival" in the House.

Congressman Michael Capuano 51.5%
State Senator Scott Brown 47.5%

Meanwhile in state news, Massachusetts Democrats faced a backlash in their passage of a statewide single-payer system over Governor Mitt Romney's (R-MA) veto. Relative political neophyte Scott Brown was able to turn what was supposed to be a cakewalk for President Kerry's preferred candidate into a nailbiter on opposition to the plan, providing to be an embarrassment for both national Democrats and the President for nearly losing an election in his home state. 

[SPC]

August 2005:


Disaster strikes the Gulf region in the form of Hurricane Katrina. President Kerry, FEMA Director Kurt Schwartz, Governor Kathleen Blanco, and Mayor Ray Nagin receive heated criticism for the flooding of 2/3 of the city due to the breaking of the levees and the slow disaster response. Additionally, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour lashes out on the president for being hesitant to provide his state with funds for recovery.

October 2005:


In foreign policy, President Kerry faces increasing division within his own party for his decision to remain in Iraq for the time being, despite the increasing death toll for both coalition forces and Iraqis. Senators Russ Feingold (D-WI), Barack Obama (D-IL), and Chuck Hagel (R-NE) have all publicly advocated withdrawal. However, Senators Joe Lieberman (D-CT), Hillary Clinton (D-NY), John McCain (R-AZ), and Rick Santorum (R-PA), among others, have staunchly defended the President's decision to wait until the security situation becomes more stable before a gradual withdrawal is considered.

On the domestic front, another political battle erupts over the confirmation process for President Kerry's appointment to replace recently deceased Chief Justice William Rehnquist. Kerry's original nominee was Harvard professor Elena Kagan. However, after a heated confirmation hearing from Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK), Kagan withdraw her nomination. Ordinarily, there would be enough Republican moderates in the Senate to ensure that Kerry's nominee would get confirmed. However, Kerry's recent political troubles and the fear of upsetting the balance of the Court have led Senate Republicans to stonewall the nomination. After a month of the partisan standoff, Kerry's compromise nominee Judge Sonia Sotomayor
was confirmed in a 58-42 vote.

November 2005:


New Jersey Governor:
Senator Jon Corzine 48.9%
Businessman Doug Forrester 47.3%

Virginia Governor:
Attorney General Jerry Kilgore 49.0%
Lt. Governor Tim Kaine 48.7%

President Kerry's party encounters further bad signs in the off-year election results, with a loss in Virginia and a closer-than-expected race in New Jersey.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Kerry is doing? (RCP Average):
Approve 41.8%
Disapprove 52.7%

[SPC]

January 2006:


President Kerry receives a bit of good news when his nominee for Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke gets easily confirmed. Even more good news came when chief political opponent Tom Delay announced that he would not seek re-election in order to defend himself against indictment for money laundering. Congressional Democrats hope to take advantage of the vulnerability of House Republicans in order to pass the Senate's individual mandate for health insurance as well as the DREAM Act. Congressmen Tom Tancredo (R-CO) and J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) vow to stop the DREAM Act in its tracks.

March 2006:

A resolution sponsored by Congressmen Walter Jones (R-NC), Ron Paul (R-TX), Dana Rohrbacher (R-CA), and Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) ordering President Kerry to begin withdrawing American troops from Iraq no later than 30 days is brought to a vote. Although the vote predictably fails, the resolution received a surprisingly high amount of bipartisan support.

[SPC]

May 2006:
Nationwide protests erupt in favor of immigration reform. Despite the uproar, Speaker Denny Hastert (R-IL) remains resolute that the DREAM Act will not be voted on in the House so long as a majority of his caucus opposes the legislation.

June 2006:
The death of al-Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu al-Zarqawi comes as good news to the Coalition effort in Iraq. Nevertheless, public opinion in the United States remains increasingly in favor of hastened withdrawal from Iraq. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court issued a 7-2 ruling in Hamden vs White, ruling that the military commissions for prisoners at Guantanamo Bay were unconstitutional. In response, Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced he would draft legislation authorizing the military commissions.

July 2006:
In political news, Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) announced that he would not run for Senate this year.  Some analysts believe this may be a sign that Bush intends to run for President in 2008.This was a surprising move for the RNSC, who had achieved earlier recruiting successes with Governor John Hoeven (R-ND), Governor Mike Johanns (R-NE), and Congressman Mike Castle (R-DE). Nevertheless, RNSC Chairwoman Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) remains optimistic that Congressman Mark Foley (R-FL) will be a good candidate to win the Senate election in Florida.

Generic Congressional Ballot (Fox News):
Republicans 50%
Democrats 41%

President Kerry Job Approval (Quinnipiac):
Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%

August 2006:

Connecticut Democratic Senate Primary:
Joseph Lieberman 52%
Ned Lamont 48%

Senator Joseph Lieberman narrowly averted a primary challenge from anti-war activist Ned Lamont, after campaigning from President Kerry, Vice-President Edwards, and Senator Clinton.

[SPC]

September 2006:

The month of September proved to be a volatile one in the course of the upcoming midterms. First, Senator Chafee (R-RI) lost renomination for his Senate seat to Mayor Steve Laffey by a 54-46 margin. In response, Chafee announced that he would continue to contest the election as a write-in candidate. Both parties remain optimistic that vote splitting will enable their nominee to prevail in the general election.

Democrats received more good news when Florida congressman Mark Foley resigned after revelations of illicit conduct with congressional pages, which has been condemned by major leaders of both parties. While it is too late for his name to be removed from the ballot, Florida Republicans have arranged to replace Foley as their nominee with Secretary of State and primary election runner-up Katherine Harris.

While Democratic prospects in individual elections seem to have improved, the Kerry administration is still facing increasing unpopularity in light of the revelation by Attorney General Holder that the NSA has been engaging in warrantless wiretapping.

Polls of selected elections:

Rhode Island Senate (SurveyUSA):
Chafee (WI) 34%
Brown (D) 32%
Laffey (R) 27%
Undecided 7%

California Governor (USC-LA Times):
Schwarzenegger (R) 54%
Wesley (D) 38%
Undecided 8%

Minnesota Senate (Rasmussen):
Klobuchar (D) 47%
Kennedy (R) 46%
Undecided 7%

Illinois Governor (SurveyUSA):
Baar Topinka (R) 42%
Blagojevich (D) 39%
Whitney (G) 14%
Undecided 5%

[SPC]

October 2006:

President Kerry signs the SAFE Port Act, port security legislation including non-germane language prohibiting online gambling, as well as the Military Commissions Act. Democrats are disillusioned by the President's support of these measures as well as the failure of the House of Representatives to consider Kerry's health care and immigration reform measures.

Later this month, the President committed a major gaffe when speaking at Pasadena City College, in which he tried to remind voters that the problems in Iraq were inherited from the Bush administration. However, his delivery of the joke made it seem as though he insulted the intelligence of U.S. soldiers. The comments elicited immediate repudiation from potential Republican challengers, such as former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY), Senator John McCain (R-AZ), Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA), and Senator George Allen (R-VA).

Finally, a glimpse into the state of the midterms for some of the cycle's most endangered incumbents:

U.S. House IN-8 (SurveyUSA)
Ellsworth (D) 50%
Hostetler (R) 46%
Undecided 4%

U.S. House PA-12 (SurveyUSA)
Murtha (D) 46%
Irey (R) 44%
Undecided 10%

Nebraska Senate (Rasmussen)
Johanns (R) 53%
Nelson (D) 43%
Undecided 4%

New Jersey Senate (Rutgers)
Kean (R) 49%
Menendez (D) 44%
Undecided 7%

Michigan Governor (EPIC-MIRA)
Devos (R) 55%
Granholm (D) 40%
Undecided 5%

Wisconsin Governor (Research 2000)
Doyle (D) 52%
Green (R) 45%

[SPC]

Election Day, 2006:

US Senate:
Republicans 56 (+4)
Democrats 42 (-5)
Independents 2 (+1)

Results for competitive races:
Delaware (special):
Mike Castle 55%
Chris Coons 43%

Florida:
Bill Nelson 62%
Mark Foley/Katherine Harris 36%

Maryland:
Michael Steele 53%
Kweisi Mfume 46%

Michigan:
Debbie Stabenow 49%
Mike Bouchard 48%

Minnesota:
Amy Klobuchar 48%
Mark Kennedy 47%
Robert Fitzgerald 4%

Montana:
Conrad Burns 49%
Jon Tester 48%

Nebraska:
Mike Johanns 51%
Ben Nelson 49%

New Jersey:
Tom Kean 51%
Bob Menendez 46%

New Mexico:
Tom Udall 51%
Steve Pearce 45%

North Dakota:
John Hoeven 77%
Tracy Potter 21%

Pennsylvania:
Rick Santorum 50.1%
Bob Casey 49.9%

Rhode Island:
Lincoln Chafee 35%
Steve Laffey 34%
Matt Brown 29%

Washington:
Maria Cantwell 52%
Mike McGavick 48%

US House:
Republicans 244 (+15)
Democrats 191 (-14)

Republicans managed to defeat incumbents in Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin, and Washington, and win open seats in Illinois and Vermont. The sole Democratic gain came from the open seat in Delaware.

Following...gubernatorial results...

[SPC]

Gubernatorial results:

Republicans 31 (+2)
Democrats 19 (-2)

Competitive races:
Arkansas:
Asa Hutchinson 48%
Mike Beebe 47%

Colorado:
Bob Beauprez 50%
Bill Ritter 47%

Illinois:
Judy Baar Topinka 47%
Rod Blagojevich 45%
Rich Whitney 7%

Iowa:
Jim Nussle 53%
Sally Pederson 44%

Maine:
Chandler Woodcock 34%
Barbara Merill 29%
John Baldacci 27%
Pat Lamarche 8%

Maryland:
Bob Ehrlich 53%
Martin O'Malley 46%

Massachusetts:
Deval Patrick 49%
Kerry Healey 44%
Christy Mihos 5%

Michigan:
Jennifer Granholm 49%
Dick DeVos 48%

New York:
Eliot Spitzer 60%
Bill Weld 38%

Ohio:
Ted Strickland 55%
Ken Blackwell 44%

Oregon:
Ron Saxton 49%
Ted Kulongowski 48%

Pennsylvania:
Ed Rendell 54%
Lynn Swann 46%

Wisconsin:
Mark Green 52%
Jim Doyle 46%

[SPC]

November 2006:

While the Republicans did well in the midterms, many in the party were dismayed that they fell short of more impressive gains in the House and Gubernatorial elections and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. With the presidential contest starting to heat up, some in the party are hoping to nominate a candidate with broader appeal in order to beat President Kerry and hold their congressional majorities. Senator John McCain and Mayor Rudolph Giuliani became the first Republicans to file with the FEC, and CNN has a snapshot of the race in these early stages:

Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 25%
Senator John McCain 17%
Speaker Newt Gingrich 12%
Governor Jeb Bush 10%
Senator George Allen 7%
Governor Mitt Romney 6%
Governor Mike Huckabee 4%
Senator Bill Frist 4%
Scattering 3%

President Kerry took the poor midterm results to heart and announced the resignation of Secretary White and the appointment of Robert Gates in his place. Kerry, Biden, and Gates plan to craft a plan in order to create a permanent peace in Iraq, and are not leaving the possibility of a troop surge off the table. Meanwhile, Kerry met with new congressional leaders Speaker Roy Blunt (R-MO) and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to discuss domestic policy matters.

[SPC]

January 2007:



President Kerry and Secretary Gates announced that they would be deploying 20,000 troops into Iraq as part of the surge strategy for improving the security situation in Iraq. This elicited criticism from the left wing of his party as well as a growing number of Republicans in favor of withdrawal.

In domestic policy, congressional leaders McConnell and Blunt felt empowered by the increased majority of the Republicans in both Houses of Congress, and thus began debate on a proposal to partially privatize Social Security. This became fodder for congressional Democrats seeking to portray the Republicans as exploiting America's seniors for the benefit of the top 1%.

In the accelerated presidential primary contest, former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA), Senator George Allen (R-VA), Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR), Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), and Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) joined the field. Former Senator Bill Frist (R-TN), former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), and former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) announced that they would be making their decisions in the late summer of 2007.

USA Today Primary Poll:
Giuliani 33%
McCain 21%
Gingrich 9%
Bush 8%
Allen 6%
Romney 5%
Huckabee 2%
Pawlenty 1%
Paul 1%
Santorum 1%

General Election Head-to-Heads:
Giuliani 45%
Kerry 44%

McCain 46%
Kerry 43%

Kerry 49%
Gingrich 37%

[SPC]

May 2007:


Congressional Republicans faced criticism for passage of a nonbinding resolution criticizing the Department of Homeland Security for failure to secure the border, while preventing any debate on the DREAM Act. Secretary Clark lambasted so-called obstructionists for their cowardice on the immigration issue.

Meanwhile, the Republican presidential candidates held the first two in a series of one hundred and twenty-six primary debates. Notable events included Santorum and Huckabee raising their hands to proclaim their disbelief in evolution, a dispute between Giuliani and Paul on foreign policy, and Allen proclaiming Romney to be weak on defense for merely wanting to "double Guantanamo" rather than "triple it".

ABC National Primary Poll:
Giuliani 32%
McCain 19%
Allen 10%
Gingrich 8%
Romney 7%
Bush 5%
Huckabee 2%
Santorum 1%
Paul 1%
Pawlenty 1%

DMR Iowa Caucus Poll:
Romney 27%
McCain 18%
Giuliani 17%
Allen 17%
Gingrich 5%
Bush 4%
Huckabee 4%
Santorum 3%
Paul 2%

[SPC]

April 2007:

Tragedy strikes at Virginia Tech as the largest school shooting in US History is perpetrated by a mentally ill student. A national day of mourning is declared by President Kerry to honor the slain students. Meanwhile, Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) introduces a renewal of the Assault Weapons Ban for the purpose of preventing future school shootings.

June 2007:

After two months of debate, Majority Leader McConnell agrees to a deal with Minority Leader Daschle whereby McConnell will allow an up-or-down vote on the DREAM Act and the Assault Weapons Ban in exchange for Daschle vowing not to filibuster legislation to make the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 permanent. The DREAM Act fails 48-52 with 14 Republican defections and 9 Democratic defections. The Assault Weapons Ban Renewal passes 52-48 with 12 Republican defections and 3 Democratic defections. The Tax Relief Act passes 57-43 with only Chafee and Bayh (D-IN) defecting.

While Speaker Blunt and Majority Leader Cantor vow to act swiftly in order to get the Tax Relief Act on President Kerry's desk, they declare that both immigration reform and gun control are dead on arrival in the House. The politician perhaps most affected by the deal is Senator John McCain, whose poll numbers have cratered and fundraising lagged in response to his critical votes in favor of the DREAM Act and the Assault Weapons Ban. Similarly, Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Governor Mitt Romney have faced criticism for perceived flip-flopping on the gun control and immigration issues, while Senator George Allen has experienced a surge in support from voters searching for a "true conservative" alternative to the "top tier".

[SPC]

July-August 2007:
Senator McCain receives embarrassing news when second-quarter fundraising numbers come out, revealing the former frontrunner to be well behind Governor Romney, Mayor Giuliani, Senator Allen, and even Congressman Paul. Much of McCain's campaign staff have abandoned their positions, seeking new jobs with the Giuliani campaign.

In more primary news, Governor Romney easily prevailed at the Ames Straw Poll. Full results were:
Romney 32%
Allen 18%
Huckabee 15%
Pawlenty 14%
Santorum 10%
Paul 9%
Giuliani 1%
McCain 1%

Governor Pawlenty (R-MN) announced his withdrawal the day after the straw poll due to his poor performance and endorsed Governor Romney's campaign. Senator Allen declared his performance to be a victory, given that Romney vastly outspent all other candidates competiting in the straw poll.

Meanwhile, Senators David Vitter (R-LA) and Larry Craig (R-ID) have found themselves embroiled in their respective political scandals, involved their involvement with DC prostitutes and solicitation of sex in an airport bathroom, respectively. Republicans have been accused of hypocrisy for demanding the resignation of Craig but not Vitter, though some see this as merely political realpolitik, seeing as Louisiana has a Democratic governor.

In an effort to break the political stalemate in Washington, a group of conservative legislators have made an effort to attach the permanent extension of the Bush tax cuts to a war funding bill. This has received condemnation from both sides of the aisle for "playing a game of political chicken on the backs of our soldiers." Speaker Blunt quickly ended the effort in a rare violation of the Hastert Rule, but not soon enough to avoid temporary damage to the Republican brand.

General Election Head-to-Heads:
Kerry 47%
Giuliani 43%

Kerry 48%
Allen 39%

Kerry 49%
Romney 40%

Kerry 46%
McCain 45%

[SPC]

September 2007:

To the surprise of nobody, former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) announced that he would not run for President in 2008. Some political analysts see the news as reflective of President Kerry's improved approval ratings, diminishing popularity of the Republican Congress, and what were believed to be poor poll numbers in the early states. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) made a similar announcement earlier this month, ostensibly due to a conflict of interest regarding his 527 committee American Solutions, and former Senator Bill Frist (R-TN) had long since dropped off the radar of presidential candidates in favor of a lobbying career.

Meanwhile, in Congress, Speaker Blunt found himself unable to get a majority of his caucus to sign on to a proposed expansion of SCHIP. With his party's conservative wing threatening to replace him with a more hardline leader, such as Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) or Majority Whip John Shadegg (R-AZ), Blunt chose not to bring the bill to a floor vote.

Gallup National Primary Poll:
Giuliani 30%
Allen 22%
Romney 18%
McCain 7%
Paul 4%
Huckabee 4%
Santorum 2%

[SPC]

October 2007:


In what many Republicans believe to be a sign of a good chance at the White House, Republican Jim Ogonowski obtains an upset victory in a special congressional election in President Kerry's home state. Niki Tsongas was originally believed to have a lock on the election, but her lead slipped in the final weeks of the campaign, and appearances by the major Republican presidential contenders are believed to have excited Republican turnout to Ogonowski's advantage.

In the latest in a series of Republican debates, all the major contenders except McCain insisted that President Kerry was leading this economy into a recession thanks to his refusal to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. Giuliani and Romney traded barbs regarding their respective immigration records, while Allen defended his social conservative record against attacks from Huckabee and Santorum.

In foreign policy, Secretary Biden managed to negotiate a deal with North Korea to discontinue production of nuclear weapons in exchange for food aid. Violence in Iraq has decreased in the months after the troop surge, although atrocities by the private contractor group Blackwater have come under heated criticism.