Christie 2016 Performance in NJ

[JRP1994]

If Chris Christie is the GOP nominee in 2016, what is the probability of Christie being able to either win New Jersey, or put the state into play?

A few things to consider:

1) The last time NJ was competitive was 2004, when John Kerry won the state by less than 7% (despite Bush/Cheney never campaigning in the state).

2) Christie's approval rating in NJ is near 70%, and he is currently leading in 2013 Gov polls by a margin of 41%. Should this margin hold, he could sweep all but 2 or 3 counties in a blowout re-election.

3) Undoubtably, this would make Christie's "favorite son effect" more significant than it would be with an average candidate.

4) Based on 2004-2008 PVI, in an election that is tied 50-50, a Democratic candidate should expect to get about 54% of the vote in NJ. If Christie performs even a point or so better than a generic republican, and has a slightly above average "favorite son effect", New Jersey could become closer than Bush-Kerry.

5) Early polls (for what they're worth this far out) show Christie beating Biden in NJ, and trouncing Cuomo. He is also shown losing (though not by a huge margin) to Hillary Clinton.

Keeping those 5 points in mind, what is the probability that Christie could win New Jersey, or at least keep it competitive throughout the 2016 campaign?

[DC Al Fine]

Christie will make it competitive. Whether he wins depends more on who he's facing.

[Nichlemn]

It depends on what he has to do in order to win the nomination. If he becomes "severely conservative", he might get as much of a "bump" as Romney did. If he can pull off being a moderate, NJ would probably become close to the tipping point state.

[Sol]

I suspect it would be like Gore in TN.

[Nichlemn]

I suspect it would be like Gore in TN.

Gore hadn't been a TN politician for 8 years by 2000, though. Christie would (presumably) be an incumbent governor.

[Sol]

I suspect it would be like Gore in TN.

Gore hadn't been a TN politician for 8 years by 2000, though. Christie would (presumably) be an incumbent governor.

Yeah, but the country is more polarized now.

[Obamanation]

If Christie wins the nomination (highly unlikely), then he will keep it within 10 points but lose by AT LEAST 5.

[Nichlemn]

If Christie wins the nomination (highly unlikely), then he will keep it within 10 points but lose by AT LEAST 5.

Pretty amazing that you can that you can predict an election nearly four years away in high confidence within a few percentage points.

[Obamanation]

If Christie wins the nomination (highly unlikely), then he will keep it within 10 points but lose by AT LEAST 5.

Pretty amazing that you can that you can predict an election nearly four years away in high confidence within a few percentage points.

Not very hard to guesstimate if you study the state's demographics/history. But if you want to Monday-morning quarterback, be my guest.

[bballrox4717]

Christie will make it competitive. Whether he wins depends more on who he's facing.

That depends if his approval ratings are still sitting at 70 % in Nov 2016, which I find unlikely. NJ may like him as governor but they certainly do not like Republican national politics.

[Earthling]

He has to move to the right to win the Republican nomination in 2016. That will certainly effect his numbers in New Jersey. He has moved to the center in the last year or so. That makes him stronger in his home state, but weakens him within his party.

Christie could win New Jersey, but if he does, he won nationally already.

[Zarn]

It depends partially on PA. If he is making an active play there, then that covers the southern half of the market in NJ. He would then have to invest in NYC advertising. That's a little pricey and unlikely.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Against Hillary - Strong lean D

Against Gillibrand or Cuomo - Toss-up/tilt R.

Against anyone else - He'll likely win by about three unless he has a bad second term or lurches to the right.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

New Jersey would be 3 or 4 points closer than usual, but ultimately, Christie will lose the state.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I doubt he'd win. he's popular in the state, and I have seen many Democrats at the very least neutral to him. But seeing as the GOP is basically toxic in my area I doubt that he would ever carry his appeal over into the election.

I'd be surprised if he did not pull NJ under 10%, but making it as close as states like Ohio and Virginia is a major stretch.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Probably like Al Gore in 2000, close, but not a win.

[Cory]

I doubt it. Not against Hillary at least.

[Smash255]

He wouldn't have a chance against Hillary, and wouldn't fare much better against Cuomo.  With other Dems, he would be competitive, but the GOP ceiling in the state really isn't high enough in a Presidential race for anyone at this point.  To top that off, he likely would need to shift rightward to win a Primary, and that hurt him big time.