2012 county & metro area estimates released today

[Linus Van Pelt]

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/counties/totals/2012/index.html

[cinyc]

The ten fastest-growing counties from 2010 with a population over 10,000 and the likely reason for their growth were:

1) Williams County, ND (Williston) - oil boom
2) St. Bernard Parish, LA (Chalmette) - post-Katrina rebound continues
3) Chattahoochee County, GA (Cussetta) - Fort Benning
4) Fredericksburg city, VA - ?
5) Long County, GA (Ludowici) - Fort Stewart?
6) Richland County, MT (Sidney) - oil boom
7) Manassas Park city, VA - D.C. exurb
8) Stark County, ND (Dickinson) - oil boom
9) Geary County, KS (Junction City) - Fort Riley
10) Franklin County, WA (Pasco)  - Tri-Cities area has been growing

All but Franklin County experienced double-digit growth.  Williams County, ND grew by almost 20%.

[Miles]

Orleans, LA is up 6% from 2010. We're coming back slowly but surely

[jimrtex]

The ten fastest-growing counties with a population over 10,000 and the likely reason for their growth were:
10) Franklin County, WA (Pasco)  - Tri-Cities area has been growing

All but Franklin County experienced double-digit growth.  Williams County, ND grew by almost 20%.

The growth in the Tri-Cities has been decidedly eastward (away from Hanford), and part of the Urbanized Area extends into Walla Walla County.    In 1980 the Tri-Cities were Richland 34K, Kennewick 34K, and Pasco 17K.  Pasco wasn't really a city, and it was a stretch to call it "Tri-"

In 2010, it was Kennewick 73K, Pasco 59K, and Richland 48K.

[cinyc]

 The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
1.    Midland, Texas    4.6%
2.    Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky.    3.7%
3.    Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.    3.6%
4.    The Villages, Fla.    3.4%
5.    Odessa, Texas    3.4%
6.    Jacksonville, N.C.    3.3%
7.    Austin-Round Rock, Texas    3.0%
8.    Casper, Wyo.    3.0%
9.    Columbus, Ga.-Ala.    2.9%
10.    Manhattan, Kan.    2.8%

5 of the fastest-growing metro areas have significant military installations.  3 are in oil producing regions.  The Villages is a growing retirement community.  Austin is the high tech capital of fast-growing Texas.

[jimrtex]

Texas Counties that have grown more than 5% between the 2010 Census and July 1, 2012

Andrews      16  9.0%   Permian Basin
Williamson  456  7.9%   Austin Suburbs
Kendall      35  7.6%   San Antonio Suburbs
Hays        168  7.6%   Austin Suburbs
Hemphill      4  7.2%   Panhandle
Fort Bend   627  7.2%   Houston Suburbs
Midland     146  7.1%   Permian Basin
Travis     1095  7.0%   Austin
Denton      707  6.7%   Fort Worth, Dallas Suburbs
Collin      834  6.7%   Dallas Suburbs
Montgomery  485  6.4%   Houston Suburbs
Guadalupe   139  6.3%   San Antonio Suburbs
Rockwall     83  6.0%   Dallas Suburbs
Comal       114  5.5%   San Antonio Suburbs
Lipscomb      3  5.4%   Panhandle
Ector       144  5.2%   Permian Basin
Gaines       18  5.1%   Permian Basin

[memphis]

They added Benton County MS to the Memphis metro. That decision belongs in the deluge. It's an hour outside of town and at least a half hour beyond any signs of civilization. We're not Atlanta. People don't commute across three counties here.

[Benj]

They added Benton County MS to the Memphis metro. That decision belongs in the deluge. It's an hour outside of town and at least a half hour beyond any signs of civilization. We're not Atlanta. People don't commute across three counties here.

Just did a quick Google tour of that county... I have no idea how they could consider that place at all urban.

Interestingly, the fastest growing county in NJ was Hudson (2.8%), head and shoulders above everywhere else. Seven counties lost population; the usual suspects of Salem (-0.5) and Cape May (-1.0), but also Monmouth (-0.2), Hunterdon (-1.0), Warren (-1.0) and Sussex (-1.2) (not the four I would have guessed) as well as Camden (-0.0). Second-fastest growing was Middlesex (1.6%), followed by Bergen (1.5), Union (1.4), Somerset (1.3) and Morris (1.2) to round out those growing more than the state (0.8).

Edit: NJ Population change by county, 2010-2012 (1% scale):

[Benj]

And a much harder map to create: Virginia population growth by county/city (1% scale, topping at 6+%, though Prince William and Loudoun are over 7%, Manassas Park is over 10% and Fredericksburg is over 12%). A tough map for the state Republican Party in the long term (though some of the most declining counties are rural black counties).

[Benj]

Another interesting bit embedded in the data: Apparently NYC is now a net in-migration city for the first time since the 1950 Census. Previously, the city had net out-migration offset by natural population growth (more births than deaths).

Hudson County, NJ has also passed its 1940 Census population, and if its blistering (for such a dense area*) pace of growth continues, is on track to well surpass its record high in the 1930 Census by 2020.

*More dense than any other county or county-equivalent except the city of San Francisco and the four urban boroughs of NYC. Brooklyn had a comparable but slightly lower growth rate.

[Sbane]

Another interesting bit embedded in the data: Apparently NYC is now a net in-migration city for the first time since the 1950 Census. Previously, the city had net out-migration offset by natural population growth (more births than deaths).

Net domestic migration or domestic and international combined?

[Benj]

Another interesting bit embedded in the data: Apparently NYC is now a net in-migration city for the first time since the 1950 Census. Previously, the city had net out-migration offset by natural population growth (more births than deaths).

Net domestic migration or domestic and international combined?

Domestic and international combined, I think. But international immigration hasn't increased in recent years, so it must be primarily due to more domestic in-migration and/or less domestic out-migration.

Just glanced at the numbers. Manhattan was about +28k on international immigration, -16k on domestic migration, for a net +12k on migration, plus a net of +23k on natural growth. Similar is true of Brooklyn and Queens, which have smaller net positive migration numbers. The Bronx and Staten Island have net negative migration (though both still positive on international migration and showing growth, albeit slower, overall--striking that Staten Island is now the slowest-growing borough (!)). So it must be net of all migration. Not sure where to find old data on that, but Bloomberg apparently thinks it's the case that this is new:

http://gothamist.com/2013/03/14/census_says_the_bronx_is_blooming_a.php (Small note: the article states Staten Island has lost population. While that is true between the 2011 and 2012 estimates, it has grown since the 2010 Census, which is probably a more helpful point of comparison.)

[Sbane]

BTW, has anyone calculated what the apportionment would be in 2020 if current trends continue? Would California gain a district?

[Skill and Chance]

BTW, has anyone calculated what the apportionment would be in 2020 if current trends continue? Would California gain a district?

CA would narrowly gain a seat based on the statewide 2012 estimates (released earlier than these stats).  TX gets +3 with the 3rd being a narrow affair.  Every other state that changes is currently pegged at +/-1. 

[Linus Van Pelt]

BTW, has anyone calculated what the apportionment would be in 2020 if current trends continue? Would California gain a district?

Muon2 calculated the projections here from the 2012 estimates. Those earlier estimates are of the same date as these ones; it's just that they first get released only at the state level and now county-level data is added.

[Sbane]

Ah, thanks guys!

[bgwah]

So 49% of Washington's population growth from 2011 to 2012 was in King County...

I almost feel sorry for the local GOP... but not quite.

[Sbane]

So 49% of Washington's population growth from 2011 to 2012 was in King County...

I almost feel sorry for the local GOP... but not quite.

In California, the Bay Area is showing a lot of growth. In Southern California though, Los Angeles County only had 1.5% growth while Riverside had 3.6% and OC had 2.7%.

[Benj]

So 49% of Washington's population growth from 2011 to 2012 was in King County...

I almost feel sorry for the local GOP... but not quite.

Could be worse for the Republicans... 84% of New York state's population growth was in New York City!

[LastVoter]

The ten fastest-growing counties with a population over 10,000 and the likely reason for their growth were:
10) Franklin County, WA (Pasco)  - Tri-Cities area has been growing

All but Franklin County experienced double-digit growth.  Williams County, ND grew by almost 20%.

The growth in the Tri-Cities has been decidedly eastward (away from Hanford), and part of the Urbanized Area extends into Walla Walla County.    In 1980 the Tri-Cities were Richland 34K, Kennewick 34K, and Pasco 17K.  Pasco wasn't really a city, and it was a stretch to call it "Tri-"

In 2010, it was Kennewick 73K, Pasco 59K, and Richland 48K.

That's oversimplified, as a former resident of that area, I expect faster growth in Benton county rather than Franklin county for the rest of this decade.

[Skill and Chance]

So 49% of Washington's population growth from 2011 to 2012 was in King County...

I almost feel sorry for the local GOP... but not quite.

Could be worse for the Republicans... 84% of New York state's population growth was in New York City!

Does it matter outside of the state senate?  The VA and GA growth is probably most interesting to D's.  VA could be D+1-2 in 2020 if this keeps up and GA could be put in play.

[Benj]

So 49% of Washington's population growth from 2011 to 2012 was in King County...

I almost feel sorry for the local GOP... but not quite.

Could be worse for the Republicans... 84% of New York state's population growth was in New York City!

Does it matter outside of the state senate?  The VA and GA growth is probably most interesting to D's.  VA could be D+1-2 in 2020 if this keeps up and GA could be put in play.

Meant the state party, obviously. Same group that would be upset by King County's growth in Washington state, which also isn't really in play nationally. If those numbers keep up, there's really no way the State Senate can stay Republican after the next Census. Though NYC's growth means that the potential House seat loss in 2020 (very much on the bubble) would almost certainly be a Republican seat upstate if current trends keep up. Then again, the Democrats might have won back most of the upstate House seats again by 2020, and there will always be at least one Republican seat in the Southern Tier.

VA would be more than D+1. It was already D+0 in 2012.

GA, harder to say. Population growth is high in all of the urban/suburban counties, including the Republican ones. Obviously rural declines favor the Democrats since the rural areas are more Republican than the cities (overall, though the Black Belt's not exactly booming either), but shifting population sizes are not enough to make a real difference in the state's overall vote. The Democrats will need demographic transition in places like Gwinnett County to continue as well (which presumably it is, but these estimates are of total population only, so they don't tell us whether and to what degree the minority population boom in Gwinnett County is continuing).

[jimrtex]

They added Benton County MS to the Memphis metro. That decision belongs in the deluge. It's an hour outside of town and at least a half hour beyond any signs of civilization. We're not Atlanta. People don't commute across three counties here.

The procedure for defining core-based statistical areas is automated.

The Census Bureau starts by defining Urban Areas which are densely populated areas (500+ per square mile).  If 50% of a county population is in urban areas of at least 10,000 population; or the county has 5,000 persons in single urban area with more than 10,000 persons it is a "Central County".

Shelby, TN: 97% of population is in Memphis UA or Arlington UC.
Tipton, TN: 19,000 population in Atoka UC
Fayette, TN: Not a central county, 7K in Oakland UC, tiny bits in Memphis UA and Arlington UC

DeSoto, MS: 80% of population is in Memphis UA
Tunica, MS: Not a central county, 4K in Tunica UC
Tate, MS: Not a central county, 7K in Senatobia, UC
Marshall, MS: Not a central county, 6K in Holly Springs, UC
Benton, MS; not a central county, no Urban Areas

Crittenden, AR; 79% of population in Memphis UA

The definition of an Urban Area includes hops and skips which permit an UA to extend along highways, and in this case across the Mississippi to West Memphis.  The definition of central counties is done for the entire country.  I just showed the counties that ended up in the Memphis MSA.

So you have the following Central Counties:

Shelby TN, DeSoto MS, Crittenden AR for Memphis Metropolitan Statistical Area
Tipton TN for a hypothetical Atoka Micropolitan Area

Then it is determined whether Outlying Counties should be added to the CBSA.  This is based entirely on commuting patterns:

If 25% of the employees resident in the county work in a central county, the county is an outlying county; or if 25% of those employed in a county come from a central county, the county is an outlying county.

Tipton TN: 60% of employed residents work in other Tennessee counties, and probably most of these in Shelby.

Fayette, TN: 64% in other Tennessee counties.

Tate, MS: 32% in other Mississippi counties, and 19% in other states.   Since most of those working in other states probably work in Shelby County, only about 1/5 of the Mississippi intercounty workers have to be to DeSoto County.

Marshall, MS: 44% in other states, 22% in other Mississippi counties.

Benton, MS: (3153 employed workers): 22% in Benton County; 49% in other Mississippi counties, 29% in other states.  Basically gets included because there are very few jobs in the county, and the population is not high enough to support much of a commercial or service sector.  Likely no Walmart, few doctors, etc.   So you have school district employees and farmers.

50% of Benton employees worked in a M/MSA (this would include both outlying and central counties, but most of the jobs are going to be in Shelby and DeSoto counties, and places like Jackson, TN and Tupelo, MS are a long haul).

It wouldn't surprise me if there were a lot of people who worked for FedEx or other jobs at the airport.  Many of these would not be 9-5/M-F jobs, so the commute would be at off hours (it is right at 60 minutes).  If you wanted to own 40 acres in the country, it could be affordable, and if you were working 4 nights a week, have daylight to keep up on it.

Tunica, MS.  8% of workers in other Mississippi counties, 8% of workers in other states.  So Tunica is included based on the reverse flow of employees in the casino and related businesses (restaurants, hotels, bars) driving in. Tunica itself only has 3800 locally-employed employees.

There is also a contiguity requirement, but both Fayette, TN and Marshall, MS supply this to Benton, MS.

There is also the Combined Statistical Area, the lovely-named Memphis-Forrest City CSA.  Forrest City Micropolitan Statistical Area is sort of a satellite of Memphis Metropolitan Statistical Area with 15% employment interchange.

[Horus]

2010-2012 Map
Scale:
0-.9
1-2.9
3-4.9
5-

[Dave from Michigan]

Wayne county Michigan still losing people but only down to 1,792,000 from 1,820,000 in 2010. So Wayne county is on pace to lose 140K by 2020. Also on the bright side Michigan only lost 275 people in the last 2 years compared with 55k between 2000 and 2010. So Michigan will still lose a congress seat in 2020 unless we have some huge growth in the next 8 years but are we at risk to lose 2 seats. Does anyone know, would negative growth cause it.