PA 2006 Senate race warms up early

[Snowe08]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=649

Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum trails State Treasurer Robert Casey, Jr., a possible Democratic challenger, 46 - 41 percent, in an early look at the 2006 Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today. Another 11 percent are undecided.

 "Casey edges Santorum in a head-to-head matchup, and both candidates have nearly equal favorable ratings, while Santorum has a much higher unfavorable rating. As an outspoken conservative, Santorum has placed himself at the right end of the political spectrum, with even 12 percent of Republicans saying he is too conservative," Richards added.

Concurrently, the NY Times reports that:

Mr. Casey is the son of former Gov. Bob Casey, a hero to abortion opponents inside and outside the Democratic Party. After trying unsuccessfully to have the party's 1992 platform state that Democrats did not support "abortion on demand," Governor Casey denounced the party for refusing to let him speak at its convention in New York on behalf of other Democrats who shared his views.

In contrast, the younger Mr. Casey said that Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the party's senatorial campaign committee, had encouraged him to run as an opponent of abortion rights.

"He was very welcoming and very candid about the party's need to speak for a broad section of Americans," Mr. Casey said in an interview.

But Mr. Schumer's overture has roiled party loyalists who remain unyielding in their support for abortion rights, exposing a deepening rift in the party. Abortion rights groups that are major financial donors to Democratic campaigns say they may fight Mr. Casey in a primary with a candidate who shares their beliefs.

[TeePee4Prez]

Well, we got some work to do.  I'm not a huge fan of Casey, but if it takes him then so be it.  I would accept Hafer more readily for she has name recognition.  This is scary.  There is a very high % of Dems that support him as well.  WHY??  I hope this Social Security fiasco drags him down as well.  Please Pres. Bush, tout that Social Security plan throughout Pennsylvania which has the 2nd highest proportion of senior citizens in the country.  I dare you!  Tote Little Ricky along with you as well.

[Jake]

Scroll down to the Hoeffel numbers.  After running a senate campaign, 57% of the respondents "hadn't heard enough".  I guess name recognition is out the window as a good thing Hoeffel brings.

[Moooooo]

5 point lead for Casey over Santorum.  He looks like the only one with a shot.

Santorum leads....
47 - 39 percent over former State Treasurer Barbara Hafer
50 - 34 percent over former U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel
51 - 30 percent over former State Rep. T.J. Rooney.

[Jake]

5 point lead for Casey over Santorum, but he looks like the only one with a shot.

Santorum leads....
47 - 39 percent over former State Treasurer Barbara Hafer
50 - 34 percent over former U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel
51 - 30 percent over former State Rep. T.J. Rooney.

and Rooney's name ID numbers.  84% "haven't heard enough"

[Keystone Phil]

Finally! New approval ratings for PA!

 

News on Santorum

 

-          In a Casey – Santorum match up, Quinnipiac shows Casey with about a 5 point lead.

-          If it is a Santorum vs. Hafer race, Santorum has an 8 point lead (47-39)

-          Santorum vs. Rooney has Santorum with a 21 point lead (51-30)

-          Santorum vs. Hoeffel shows Santorum winning by 16 points (50-34)

 

Approval ratings

 

Santorum no longer has the highest approval ratings. 52% approve (Specter has a 55% approval rating). That is a 2 point drop. Santorum’s disapproval ratings are at 31%. That went up a point. However, Santorum still has the lower disapproval numbers compared to Specter and Bush in PA (Rendell was not included for some reason).

 

Good News for Santorum

 

60% think Santorum’s position in the GOP leadership is good for PA. Only 31% disagree.

 

 

Bad News for Santorum

 

64% don’t want to see Santorum as a Presidential candidate in 2008. Only 19% would like to see him run.

 

My analysis – Santorum is still in good shape. Unless Casey runs (I agree that Casey would win by about 5-6 points. Quinnipiac seems accurate there.) I believe he’ll win re-election by a good 5-6 points. I disagree with the Santorum vs. Hafer/Hoeffel numbers. No way would it be that lopsided. However, it’s a good showing for Santorum and proves he would obviously be ahead if he faced either of the other two candidates. I agree with the Santorum-Hafer numbers. 8 points seems like a possibility if she is the Dem. nominee. I'm sure the amount of people supporting a Santorum run will change too if he is re-elected.

[Keystone Phil]

  Tote Little Ricky along with you as well.

Uh...he already had Santorum at an event in Montco.

[TeePee4Prez]

  Tote Little Ricky along with you as well.

Uh...he already had Santorum at an event in Montco.

I'm aware of that Phil.  For some reason I don't buy the Southeast numbers for Ricky.  I remember Quinnipiac overstating Bush a lot here and guess what happened? 

[Keystone Phil]

  Tote Little Ricky along with you as well.

Uh...he already had Santorum at an event in Montco.

I'm aware of that Phil.  For some reason I don't buy the Southeast numbers for Ricky.  I remember Quinnipiac overstating Bush a lot here and guess what happened? 

I didn't know you were aware of that since it seemed like you were suggesting a new idea. I don't agree with the SE numbers for Santorum either but the most important part is the fact that 60% of PA voters think that Santorum's spot in the GOP leadership helps the state.