UT-4: Love prepping for rematch with Matheson

[RogueBeaver]

Starting with better staff.

http://atr.rollcall.com/utah-love-hires-top-hatch-strategist-for-matheson-rematch/

[Maxwell]

Do you think Matheson would start looking to higher office if he manages to throw off a challenge from Love.

[Old Man Svensson]

I'm not particularly bothered who wins out of these two. They're both terrible politicians.

[RogueBeaver]

Do you think Matheson would start looking to higher office if he manages to throw off a challenge from Love.

Dems are locked out of statewide office, so he's staying where he is.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Matheson can poo his pants after he voted against the minimum wage increase.

[Vosem]

Matheson can poo his pants after he voted against the minimum wage increase.

He could before, too. I'm not sure you understand the difference between can and may.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

This will definitely move his seat into the "toss-up" column at the very least.  Love was speaking at CPAC a few minutes ago, so I think she's serious about this.  Practically, though, it won't actually matter who wins either way.  We just won't see that island of blue in that sea of red anymore.

[Mr.Phips]

This will definitely move his seat into the "toss-up" column at the very least.  Love was speaking at CPAC a few minutes ago, so I think she's serious about this.  Practically, though, it won't actually matter who wins either way.  We just won't see that island of blue in that sea of red anymore.

The fact that Love couldnt win with favorite son Romney at the top of the ticket makes it much less likely that she wins in 2014 without him. 

[Talleyrand]

This will definitely move his seat into the "toss-up" column at the very least.  Love was speaking at CPAC a few minutes ago, so I think she's serious about this.  Practically, though, it won't actually matter who wins either way.  We just won't see that island of blue in that sea of red anymore.

The fact that Love couldnt win with favorite son Romney at the top of the ticket makes it much less likely that she wins in 2014 without him.  

If the national environment worsens significantly for the Democratic Party by 2014, at least in contrast to 2012, that would be an asset for her even if she loses the Romney bump. But Utah is already so Republican it might not matter much either way, so I have no idea how this race will go, although I'd narrowly favor Matheson right now. 

[Zioneer]

As a resident of this district, I'd say that 2014 is a little bit more favored for Matheson than 2012, but not by much. All the advantages he has are canceled out: He won't have to deal with the Romneygeddon, but he also won't be able to GOTV as well in an off-year, Love probably not getting as much money from the Republican leadership means he won't either, his incumbency is countered by Love's ability to excite Republicans, his "brand name" has been damaged by going so sharply negative against Love, and so forth.

I think what will save Matheson is his honest genius at campaigning and his lockstep control of Utah Democrats. They will vote Matheson to keep an ultraconservative away from the district. Enough non-Democrats will vote Matheson because they want a no-drama, no worries backbencher, but his status as the last Democrat standing (until the demographics change) grants him invincibility among Utah Democrats, 2010 aside.

Even his positives barely saved him from the Romneygeddon, and he might have had to cheat to do it.

Of course, that's if Republican convention voters clear the way for Love (which they should, but you never know with Utah).

[minionofmidas]

Of all the barely-surviving blue-dogs-in-R-districts, Matheson is by far the one with the best chances of reverting to safe(ish), in 2014 or ever.

("by far" struck because of Rahall, who at least also has that chance.)

[DrScholl]

She ran almost twenty points behind Romney, who won the district with 67% of the vote. I can't see her winning if she ran that far behind in very favorable conditions, if anything, she probably was aided quite a bit by the top of the ticket.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Mia Love is frankly a nut.

Who's the Green candidate in that district?

[Sol]

Mia Love is frankly a nut.

Who's the Green candidate in that district?

Matheson's the most liberal you can get in that district. Voting for a green would be a vote for Love.

[nolesfan2011]

Mia Love is frankly a nut.

Who's the Green candidate in that district?

Matheson's the most liberal you can get in that district. Voting for a green would be a vote for Love.

there was no green candidate, and hasn't been to my knowledge.

That being said, Matheson will win again, he knows how to win, he already beat Love and he knows not to ruffle any feathers voting wise and cause issues for himself.

[Zioneer]

Mia Love is frankly a nut.

Who's the Green candidate in that district?

Matheson's the most liberal you can get in that district. Voting for a green would be a vote for Love.

there was no green candidate, and hasn't been to my knowledge.

That being said, Matheson will win again, he knows how to win, he already beat Love and he knows not to ruffle any feathers voting wise and cause issues for himself.

There might be a Justice Party (former Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson's Green Party-esque party) candidate though.

Though I'm done with voting for Matheson. He doesn't deserve my vote. He could stick his head out on at least a couple of issues, but he doesn't.

[nolesfan2011]

Mia Love is frankly a nut.

Who's the Green candidate in that district?

Matheson's the most liberal you can get in that district. Voting for a green would be a vote for Love.

there was no green candidate, and hasn't been to my knowledge.

That being said, Matheson will win again, he knows how to win, he already beat Love and he knows not to ruffle any feathers voting wise and cause issues for himself.

There might be a Justice Party (former Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson's Green Party-esque party) candidate though.

Though I'm done with voting for Matheson. He doesn't deserve my vote. He could stick his head out on at least a couple of issues, but he doesn't.

Just as a note, I was a supporter of and a campaign worker for Rocky/JP, and though we may run a candidate in that Utah district, Rocky himself has stated repeatedly he doesn't have any plans or interest in running for it.

See here http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2012/12/rocky-anderson-to-not-run-for-congress/

[Zioneer]

Mia Love is frankly a nut.

Who's the Green candidate in that district?

Matheson's the most liberal you can get in that district. Voting for a green would be a vote for Love.

there was no green candidate, and hasn't been to my knowledge.

That being said, Matheson will win again, he knows how to win, he already beat Love and he knows not to ruffle any feathers voting wise and cause issues for himself.

There might be a Justice Party (former Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson's Green Party-esque party) candidate though.

Though I'm done with voting for Matheson. He doesn't deserve my vote. He could stick his head out on at least a couple of issues, but he doesn't.

Just as a note, I was a supporter of and a campaign worker for Rocky/JP, and though we may run a candidate in that Utah district, Rocky himself has stated repeatedly he doesn't have any plans or interest in running for it.

See here http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2012/12/rocky-anderson-to-not-run-for-congress/

Oh sure, sure. I wasn't talking about Rocky himself though. I was just talking about someone running under his party's banner.

[RogueBeaver]

She's officially declared.

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/H2UT04023/862571/

[free my dawg]

Well, this certainly changes this race from a lean to a tilt.

Though it's very premature to assume the race is a tossup or tilts toward her. She and Matheson head their specific tickets in 2014 IIRC, so he can set his own agenda without tying himself to Obama. Add Matheson's strength as a candidate in general and the fact that Utah's favorite son is off the ticket and he's got a good chance to hold on this year.

[Zioneer]

She's officially declared.

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/H2UT04023/862571/

Let the games begin!

[tmthforu94]

Tough to say how this would go. Normally I'd give her the edge due to it being a midterm, but this is Utah, where running behind Romney may be more beneficial than running in an off-year.

Thoughts, Pioneer?

Also, personally bummed Josh Romney is going for it! He'd be fantastic.

[Zioneer]

Tough to say how this would go. Normally I'd give her the edge due to it being a midterm, but this is Utah, where running behind Romney may be more beneficial than running in an off-year.

Thoughts, Pioneer?

Also, personally bummed Josh Romney is going for it! He'd be fantastic.

Well, Matheson did win in 2010 by a 5% margin, so he seems to be fine in mid-terms. In 2006 he smashed the Republican by a 55%-37% win, while in 2002 (with less of a good reputation and worse demographics for him), he basically did the same as he did in 2012.

I think he'll beat Love in 2014 by a 3-5 point margin; not overwhelming, but enough to scare Love away from messing with him again. Romney not being on the ticket will help him Matheson more than a mid-term year would hurt him.

Also, don't be too sure Josh Romney isn't running; Love might face opposition from her failure to beat an perfectly beatable (not in retrospect, but it seemed likely) opponent. She'll probably have the field cleared for her, but hey, stranger things could happen.

[windjammer]

Matheson is a survivor, I think it's impossible to beat him. She doesn't win in 2012 where Romney got 72% of the vote in Utah. She could try again but it might damage her political career.