2014 Senatorial Predictions
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Latest 2014 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
K.Dobrev (O-BGR)MapProfile 11-04 1 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
Juin (R-CO)MapProfile 11-03 32 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 11-02 3 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 0
kgt107 ()Map 10-21 1 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 0
jamesyons (R-VA)MapProfile 10-23 10 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
Oldiesfreak1854 (R-MI)MapProfile 10-31 13 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
PandaExpress (D-JPN)MapProfile 11-01 2 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
deus naturae (L-NY)MapProfile 11-02 6 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
liberal96 (D-NY)MapProfile 11-03 8 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ben Kenobi ()MapProfile 11-04 1 R +12 27 (+12) 9 (-12) 0 (0) 0
Gass3268 (D-MD)MapProfile 11-04 2 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 0
ThePoliticalGuy (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 20 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 0
Olawakandi (G-CA)MapProfile 11-04 435 Even 16 (+1) 19 (-2) 1 (+1) 0
albaleman (D-MN)MapProfile 11-04 8 R +5 20 (+5) 15 (-6) 1 (+1) 0
ground_x (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 5 R +4 19 (+4) 16 (-5) 1 (+1) 0
MilesC56 (I-VA)MapProfile 11-04 37 R +6 21 (+6) 15 (-6) 0 (0) 0
ilikeverin (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 1 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
Xiivi (D-FRA)MapProfile 11-04 5 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 0
benconstine (D-VA)MapProfile 11-04 9 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
slick67 (R-SC)
by slick67 on 2014-12-10 @ 08:29:37
MapProfile 11-03 21 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 1
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2014-12-04 @ 13:19:50
MapProfile 10-19 97 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 6
colin (I-ON)
by KS21 on 2014-11-20 @ 08:45:47
MapProfile 10-25 17 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 6
MATTROSE94 (D-NJ)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-10 @ 10:44:28
MapProfile 10-30 38 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 1
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)
by dmurphy1984 on 2014-11-05 @ 05:41:19
Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-04 @ 01:58:43
MapProfile 11-04 10 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 1
IceSpear (D-PA)
by IceSpear on 2014-11-04 @ 01:02:42
MapProfile 11-04 22 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 2
BushCountry (I-IN)
by wingindy on 2014-11-04 @ 00:29:01
MapProfile 11-03 34 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 5
Olawakandi (G-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 17:16:21
MapProfile 11-02 433 R +2 17 (+2) 18 (-3) 1 (+1) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 16:44:11
MapProfile 11-02 9 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2014 Senatorial Predictions  (Read 225029 times)
GaussLaw
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« Reply #100 on: June 06, 2014, 09:09:13 PM »

Also, Del Tachi, if the GOP would lose 5 Senate seats due to McDaniel, wouldn't GOP leaders in the state be more concerned and not talking about "dialing back" help to Cochran?  Wouldn't they be panicked/horrified and do everything possible to help him?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #101 on: June 06, 2014, 10:57:29 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2014, 10:59:30 PM by Del Tachi »

Also, Del Tachi, if the GOP would lose 5 Senate seats due to McDaniel, wouldn't GOP leaders in the state be more concerned and not talking about "dialing back" help to Cochran?  Wouldn't they be panicked/horrified and do everything possible to help him?

First of all, not all national groups are letting their foot off the gas in the runoff, and we can expect in-state groups to ramp-up their efforts.

As for your argument, I don't think the national GOP even realizes how much this guy is a disaster waiting to happen.  Except for the week of the nursing home incident, McDaniel's campaign has been relatively low-profile.  If he wins the primary, the heat of the spotlight most definitely intensifies on McDaniel - national Democratic organizations and liberal media will not let a single breath out of McDaniel's mouth undissected and uncritcized.  McDaniel probably already has said dozens of highly objectional soundbites at his campaign events so far, its just that the national liberal establishment isn't listening like the way they will be after June 24th (should he win).

Also, the people at the NRSC probably suffer from the same one-dimensional, not-backed-in-any-sort-of-reality mindset of "it's Mississippi - Republicans will always win elections there, derrrrr."  

To them and y'all:  Jim Hood just called.   



As for how many seats McDaniel costs the GOP, I'm going to be honest and say I honestly don't know but it could get pretty ugly for the Republicans.  

Mitch McConnell being tied so intricately to the national Republican Party means that any major gaffes from any Tea Party backed candidates will probably hit him the hardest.  Couple that with McConnell's history as a serial underperformer and ALG's strong candidancy and I think that probably puts McConnell at the top of McDaniel's "friendly fire" list.

Bizarre comments about rape or other women's issues from McDaniel would probably stand to benefit female Democratic incumbents, and this could make Hagan and Landrieu favorites if the gaffe is repulsive enough.  Could also help ALG, Tennant and Nunn.  

Arkansas and Alaska are close anyway, so the GOP doesn't really have the luxury of having the crazy-ass things Chris McDaniel says blasted on Morning Joe and BuzzFeed.  

Now, please don't get me wrong:  Its not like voters in Colorado and Michigan will go into the polling booth on election day with Chris McDaniel's comments in the back of their heads (well, not most of them at least) but a particularly bad gaffe exploited properly by national Democrats would be enough to drive up liberal turnout which typical lags behind in midterm years.  Thus, a McDaniel nomination helps raise the Democrats' chances in every single race this year.  
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #102 on: June 07, 2014, 01:39:38 PM »

Wow, that's a thorough analysis. 

It seems like the GOP has 2 options:
1. Pour millions into the runoff to try to keep McDaniel out of the nomination.
2. Make the GOP establishment/McDaniel's campaign treat McDaniel like a 5-year-old; not let him into certain interviews and only give him prepared speeches; make him practice/rehearse responses to a bunch of different question types and pound sensibility in his head; look at all his past interviews and come up with quick counterattacks should they arise

My guess is it'll probably be #2.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #103 on: June 28, 2014, 06:40:31 PM »

Now that most primaries have been completed I decided to finally make one of these.




I don't believe the GOP expanded the map in either OR, VA, or NH. Just media hype. However, one place where I do think they expanded the map is CO, where I'm more pessimistic than most here (although I still see Udall winning). Landrieu now looks more likely to lose than to win, especially because of the runoff. I still think McConnell will lose narrowly. Georgia is still something of a question mark, but I anticipate it will probably end up going Lean R. Iowa could go toss up, but Ernst's post primary bounce isn't enough to convince me...yet.
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Never
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« Reply #104 on: June 28, 2014, 10:08:01 PM »

Now that most primaries have been completed I decided to finally make one of these.




I don't believe the GOP expanded the map in either OR, VA, or NH. Just media hype. However, one place where I do think they expanded the map is CO, where I'm more pessimistic than most here (although I still see Udall winning). Landrieu now looks more likely to lose than to win, especially because of the runoff. I still think McConnell will lose narrowly. Georgia is still something of a question mark, but I anticipate it will probably end up going Lean R. Iowa could go toss up, but Ernst's post primary bounce isn't enough to convince me...yet.

IceSpear, that was very insightful. This is one of the more accurate maps in my view. I'll add that the National Journal argues that all three competitive Democrat-held Senate seats in the South will swing one way or the other together, which might be something to keep in mind once November is closer. Personally, I'm only ranking LA as a Republican pick-up because I don't think Landrieu has what it takes to win a runoff in this political climate (I don't think that any candidate can pass 50% in LA on November 4th), but I'm leaving AR and NC as Democratic holds, because it seems like Pryor is in a uniquely strong position, and Tillis is a weak candidate compared to Hagan.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #105 on: June 28, 2014, 11:49:51 PM »

Now that most primaries have been completed I decided to finally make one of these.




I don't believe the GOP expanded the map in either OR, VA, or NH. Just media hype. However, one place where I do think they expanded the map is CO, where I'm more pessimistic than most here (although I still see Udall winning). Landrieu now looks more likely to lose than to win, especially because of the runoff. I still think McConnell will lose narrowly. Georgia is still something of a question mark, but I anticipate it will probably end up going Lean R. Iowa could go toss up, but Ernst's post primary bounce isn't enough to convince me...yet.

IceSpear, that was very insightful. This is one of the more accurate maps in my view. I'll add that the National Journal argues that all three competitive Democrat-held Senate seats in the South will swing one way or the other together, which might be something to keep in mind once November is closer. Personally, I'm only ranking LA as a Republican pick-up because I don't think Landrieu has what it takes to win a runoff in this political climate (I don't think that any candidate can pass 50% in LA on November 4th), but I'm leaving AR and NC as Democratic holds, because it seems like Pryor is in a uniquely strong position, and Tillis is a weak candidate compared to Hagan.

Thanks! I think all three races have their own dynamic. Landrieu and Pryor would be in similar positions if it wasn't for the jungle primary in LA, but the presence of it puts her in more danger than he is. It's not a fait accompli that turnout will go down in the primary (see 2002 in Louisiana, and more recently Cochran's victory a few days ago) but the odds would be against her. I'm still iffy on Pryor. I never wrote him off even back when everyone assumed he'd be Blanche Lincoln 2.0, and I'm not getting carried away either now that everyone assumes he's the favorite because of a couple favorable polls. The North Carolina race is a bit different due to the fact that Pryor and Landrieu are relying on their personal brand to carry them through, whereas Hagan is only still in the race because NC is a swingish (though GOP tilted) state. I think the weak field there ultimately gave her a decent path to victory, but she could easily go down even with a modestly more Republican climate than we're in now.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #106 on: July 23, 2014, 06:32:43 PM »

I'll update these after each big primary date from now on. After a state's candidates for Senate are determined I will add percentages and bold the winner.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions - 100%. Safe R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan - Toss-Up
Arkansas: Tom Cotton - 50%, Mark Pryor - 47%. Toss-Up
Colorado: Mark Udall - 50%, Cory Gardner - 48%. Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons - Safe D
*Georgia: David Perdue - 54%, Michelle Nunn - 46%. Lean R
Hawaii (S): Brian Schatz - Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch - 65%, Nels Mitchell - 33%. Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin - 58%, Jim Oberweis - 40%. Safe D
Iowa: Bruce Braley - 51%, Joni Ernst, 48%. Lean D
Kansas: Pat Robertson - Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell - 51%, Alison L. Grimes - 48%. Lean R
*Louisiana: Bill Cassidy - 52%, Mary Landrieu - 48%. Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins - 65%, Shenna Bellows - 33%. Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey - Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters - Lean D
Minnesota: Al Franken - Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran - 59%, Travis Childers - 39%. Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines - 55%, John Walsh - 43%. Likely R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse - 60%, Dave Domina - 38%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeane Shaheen - Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker - 60%, Jeff Bell - 38%. Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall - 58%. Allen Weh - 41%. Safe D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan - 49%, Thom Tillis - 47%. Toss-Up
Oklahoma: James Inhofe - 62%, Matt Silverstein - 37%. Safe R
Oklahoma (S): James Lankford - Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley - 56%, Monica Wehby - 41%. Safe D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed - Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham - 56%. Brad Hutto - 42%. Safe R
South Carolina (S): Tim Scott - 58%, Joyce Dickerson - 40%. Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds - 56%, Rick Weiland - 39%. Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander - Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn - 58%, David Alameel - 40%. Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner - 57%, Ed Gillespie - 40%. Safe D
West Virginia: Shelley M. Capito - 55%, Natalie Tennant - 44%. Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi - Safe R

State bolded = pickup. My prediction - R+6
*Runoff predictions.

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SPC
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« Reply #107 on: July 23, 2014, 07:07:33 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2014, 07:11:19 PM by SPC »

Alabama: Sessions
Alaska: Begich
As I've pointed out elsewhere, history of Republicans overperforming polls in Alaska appears to be more attributable to polling companies with spotty records than a genuine phenomenon. Unless Sullivan actually starts leading in non-Republican firms, I give the edge to the incumbent.
Arkansas: Pryor
Perhaps wishful thinking, but unless Cotton starts leading in non-Republican firms, I once again give the edge to the incumbent.
Colorado: Udall
See Alaska, but replace Republicans with Democrats. However, Udall and Gardner have both led numerous polls, making this call a bit more uncertain. While I could easily see this being a repeat of Wisconsin 2010, Udall has held the lead slightly more often, and thus I give him a statistically insignificant edge.
Delaware: Coons
Georgia: Perdue
Given that Romney won Georgia by 7 points, I find it hard to believe that Perdue could lose in a midterm year. Even if Perdue does manage to screw it up, the runoff gives him a bit more wiggle room than other bad candidates.
Hawaii: Schatz
Idaho: Risch
Illinois: Durbin
Iowa: Braley
Like Colorado, I have little faith in this call. However, Braley's slightly more frequent polling leads give him an insignificant edge.
Kansas: Roberts
Kentucky: McConnell
It would be nice if nonpartisan pollsters were willing to look at this race, but in order to be consistent with my other ratings, I should give the advantage to the incumbent unless Grimes consistently leads in nonpartisan polls (right now it's essentially a tie.)
Louisiana: Landrieu
While she is likely doomed if it gets to be a runoff, polls usually have given her a majority in the jungle primary, meaning there is a good chance that Cassidy won't have the runoff to his advantage.
Maine: Collins
Massachusetts: Markey
Michigan: Peters
Minnesota: Franken
Mississippi: Cochran
Montana: Daines
While Walsh has tightened the race, Daines still has a clear advantage.
Nebraska: Sasse
New Hampshire: Shaheen
New Jersey: Booker
New Mexico: Udall
North Carolina: Hagan
While I suspect that PPP might be inflating Hagan's chances here, the fact that other pollsters have corroborated this gives Hagan a clear advantage.
Oklahoma: Inhofe
Oklahoma: Lankford
Oregon: Merkley
Rhode Island: Reed
South Carolina: Graham
It would be hackishness on the highest level if I were to seriously propose that Ravenel could endanger Graham's reelection.
South Carolina: Scott
South Dakota: Rounds
Tennessee: Alexander
Texas: Cornyn
Virginia: Warner
West Virginia: Capito
Wyoming: Enzi

Most likely to flip:
1. South Dakota
2. West Virginia

3. Montana


4. Kentucky
5. Louisiana
6. Iowa
7. Arkansas
8. Colorado
9. Georgia
10. Alaska
11. North Carolina
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SWE
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« Reply #108 on: July 24, 2014, 02:37:10 PM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Dan Sullivan (R) LEAN D
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) PURE TOSSUP
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def.  Kevon Wade (D) SAFE D

Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) LEAN R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D) def. Joni Ernst (R) LEAN D

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Chad Taylor (D) SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D)  LEAN R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN R
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R

Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) LIKELY D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Julianne Ortman SAFE D (R)

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) SAFE R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. John Walsh (D) LIKELY R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Murray Sabrin (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Dave Clements (R) SAFE D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Thom Tillis TOSSUP/TILT D

Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Raymond McKay (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) LIKELY R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R

Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) LEAN R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R


For a net gain of R+5
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #109 on: July 27, 2014, 07:57:20 AM »

Pryor def Cotton
ALG def McConnell
Pressler def Weiland def Rounds
Hagen def Tillis
Roberts is upset in KS

50-47-3 Dem majority
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #110 on: July 27, 2014, 02:07:34 PM »

For now, I will have to agree with SSWE's prediction:

+5 R pickup

West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana switch from D to R.

Louisiana goes R--Mary Landrieu will lead on Election Day but won't make it past 50 percent and will lose in the runoff.  Same for Michelle Nunn here in Georgia.  The Repubs got the strongest candidate in David Perdue.

Arkansas goes R as well--Cotton will squeeze out a win if the election were held today.


Dems will hold in Alaska (Begich is running a very good race), North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado.  Will fall short in Kentucky--Grimes should keep it interesting, though.



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Del Tachi
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« Reply #111 on: July 30, 2014, 01:33:24 PM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (D) def. Mark Begich (D) TOSSUP
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) LEAN R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def.  Kevon Wade (D) SAFE D

Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) LIKELY R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) def. Bruce Braley (R) TOSSUP
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Chad Taylor (D) SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D)  LIKELY R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN R
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R

Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) LEAN D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Mike McFadden LIKELY D (R)

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) SAFE R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. John Walsh (D) LIKELY R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) LIKELY D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Murray Sabrin (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Dave Clements (R) SAFE D

North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) def. Kay Hagan (D) TOSSUP
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) LIKELY D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Raymond McKay (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) SAFE R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R

Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) LIKELY D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) LEAN R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R


For a net gain of R+8
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #112 on: July 31, 2014, 04:19:15 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2014, 04:22:35 PM by OC »

Mary Landrieu def Cassidy
Begich def Sullivan
Pryor def Cotton
Braley def Ernst
Peters def Land

SMC def Tennant
Perdue def Nunn
McConnell def ALG
Rounds def Weiland
Daines def Walsh

R net 3 seats
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Free Bird
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« Reply #113 on: August 10, 2014, 09:39:23 AM »



R+ 8
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #114 on: August 10, 2014, 10:13:45 AM »

Republican +4; Democrats win a lot of the really close senate elections & Scott Brown does in fact go down in New Hampshire. Its a long night in Iowa but the Democrat finally wins. Alison Grimes does what no Democrat has done in Kentucky since Wendell Ford.

Unfortunately, she wont make it, but Landrieu will.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #115 on: August 10, 2014, 11:42:04 AM »
« Edited: August 10, 2014, 11:44:13 AM by Mr. Illini »

Latest update with me:



Many tears were shed in the making of this prediction. I've been denying that the GOP had the advantage for awhile now, but it is what it is.

Toss-Ups:

Iowa: Ernst sure has been performing better than I expected here. It will be close, but Braley has been using her anti-minimum wage stance to its maximum and has been duly pursuing liberal Dems and the rural community on her pro-oil stance (the rural community opposes oil because of bio fuels). Braley holds on.

Arkansas: Pryor is a good candidate for the state, but its' rightward shift of recent years is forcing it away from even the Blue Dogs. Cotton is starting to establish a consistent lead, and he will not slip up.

Louisiana: Landrieu has not done everything she can to win this race. Like Arkansas, Louisiana has taken a sharp turn toward the GOP, abandoning even the moderates. Landrieu was popular there, but she would want to back off pro-choice stances from the past if she wants a chance. She hasn't done that, and that has motivated me to change this prediction. Cassidy takes it.

Kentucky: Of the southern toss-ups, this is where my most confidence is as a Democrat. McConnell has the organization and national power, which has caused many to say Grimes doesn't have a chance. She does, however, as anti-incumbent sentiment is strong there, and she has run a fantastic campaign. She's strong, dynamic, and feels just right for the state. The Dems take Kentucky narrowly; Grimes wins.

North Carolina: I had Hagan winning here for awhile, but her chances are slimming by the day. She isn't an especially exciting candidate and anti-incumbent sentiment will prove strong here as well. This will be a close one, but I have Tillis narrowly here.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #116 on: August 10, 2014, 04:43:49 PM »

Latest update with me:



Many tears were shed in the making of this prediction. I've been denying that the GOP had the advantage for awhile now, but it is what it is.

Toss-Ups:

Iowa: Ernst sure has been performing better than I expected here. It will be close, but Braley has been using her anti-minimum wage stance to its maximum and has been duly pursuing liberal Dems and the rural community on her pro-oil stance (the rural community opposes oil because of bio fuels). Braley holds on.

Arkansas: Pryor is a good candidate for the state, but its' rightward shift of recent years is forcing it away from even the Blue Dogs. Cotton is starting to establish a consistent lead, and he will not slip up.

Louisiana: Landrieu has not done everything she can to win this race. Like Arkansas, Louisiana has taken a sharp turn toward the GOP, abandoning even the moderates. Landrieu was popular there, but she would want to back off pro-choice stances from the past if she wants a chance. She hasn't done that, and that has motivated me to change this prediction. Cassidy takes it.

Kentucky: Of the southern toss-ups, this is where my most confidence is as a Democrat. McConnell has the organization and national power, which has caused many to say Grimes doesn't have a chance. She does, however, as anti-incumbent sentiment is strong there, and she has run a fantastic campaign. She's strong, dynamic, and feels just right for the state. The Dems take Kentucky narrowly; Grimes wins.

North Carolina: I had Hagan winning here for awhile, but her chances are slimming by the day. She isn't an especially exciting candidate and anti-incumbent sentiment will prove strong here as well. This will be a close one, but I have Tillis narrowly here.

What about Colorado? And Kentucky... just no
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #117 on: August 10, 2014, 06:23:22 PM »





Notable Races

Alaska: Sullivan is a decent candidate and Alaska is a red state, but Begich is a great fit for the state and seems to be running a very effective campaign. D HOLD.
Arkansas: Cotton is once again leading in the polls, as Pryor's bump has faded. Arkansas is moving rightward rapidly, and while Pryor is not a bad candidate, this is an R PICKUP.
Colorado: Gardner has made this a race, to his credit. However, Udall should be able to pull away and hold on. D HOLD.
Georgia: Back when the outcome of the primary was unclear, I had this as a D pickup. But this has essentially turned into a worst-case scenario for Democrats, with Perdue winning the Republican nomination. Nunn is a very strong candidate, but if she can't break 50% in November, then a pickup is unlikely. R HOLD.
Iowa: Ernst has been doing very well here, and actually leads in the polling now. I think Braley will survive in the end, but this is one of my shakiest calls. D HOLD.
Kentucky: Probably the Democrats' best chance for a pickup. Grimes is a very strong candidate, and is running a very good race. However, McConnell has survived tough elections before, and has a slight advantage overall. R HOLD.
Louisiana: This is probably the toughest race to call. At first glance, Landrieu should be able to win, having won tough races before, but the political climate has become even more hostile, and so it seems like her luck has finally run out. Like in Georgia, her best chance to win is in the initial November election. If the race proceeds to a runoff, Cassidy will most likely win. R PICKUP.
Michigan: Land is certainly a strong candidate, but Peters' polling lead has been consistent. Michigan is still a light blue state, and for that this race is a D HOLD.
Montana: With Walsh's withdrawal, the possibility of a D hold has evaporated entirely. Unless Schweitzer changes his mind and gets nominated, this is an R PICKUP.
North Carolina: Tillis seems to be performing better than expected here. He's closing the poll gap, but I think that in the end Hagan will hold on. D HOLD.
South Dakota: Rounds is a solid candidate, and Pressler's entry hasn't really affected the race as much as expected. R PICKUP.
West Virginia: Tennant is a strong candidate, but Capito leads significantly in the polls, and it doesn't seem like anything will change. After years of voting R presidentially, Republicans will finally succeed downballot. R PICKUP.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #118 on: August 10, 2014, 10:49:04 PM »

Many tears were shed in the making of this prediction. I've been denying that the GOP had the advantage for awhile now, but it is what it is.

Toss-Ups:

Iowa: Ernst sure has been performing better than I expected here. It will be close, but Braley has been using her anti-minimum wage stance to its maximum and has been duly pursuing liberal Dems and the rural community on her pro-oil stance (the rural community opposes oil because of bio fuels). Braley holds on.

Arkansas: Pryor is a good candidate for the state, but its' rightward shift of recent years is forcing it away from even the Blue Dogs. Cotton is starting to establish a consistent lead, and he will not slip up.

Louisiana: Landrieu has not done everything she can to win this race. Like Arkansas, Louisiana has taken a sharp turn toward the GOP, abandoning even the moderates. Landrieu was popular there, but she would want to back off pro-choice stances from the past if she wants a chance. She hasn't done that, and that has motivated me to change this prediction. Cassidy takes it.

Kentucky: Of the southern toss-ups, this is where my most confidence is as a Democrat. McConnell has the organization and national power, which has caused many to say Grimes doesn't have a chance. She does, however, as anti-incumbent sentiment is strong there, and she has run a fantastic campaign. She's strong, dynamic, and feels just right for the state. The Dems take Kentucky narrowly; Grimes wins.

North Carolina: I had Hagan winning here for awhile, but her chances are slimming by the day. She isn't an especially exciting candidate and anti-incumbent sentiment will prove strong here as well. This will be a close one, but I have Tillis narrowly here.

What about Colorado? And Kentucky... just no

As you can see, I have Colorado at Lean D.

And Kentucky...oh yes.
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Never
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« Reply #119 on: August 10, 2014, 10:59:54 PM »

Many tears were shed in the making of this prediction. I've been denying that the GOP had the advantage for awhile now, but it is what it is.

Toss-Ups:

Iowa: Ernst sure has been performing better than I expected here. It will be close, but Braley has been using her anti-minimum wage stance to its maximum and has been duly pursuing liberal Dems and the rural community on her pro-oil stance (the rural community opposes oil because of bio fuels). Braley holds on.

Arkansas: Pryor is a good candidate for the state, but its' rightward shift of recent years is forcing it away from even the Blue Dogs. Cotton is starting to establish a consistent lead, and he will not slip up.

Louisiana: Landrieu has not done everything she can to win this race. Like Arkansas, Louisiana has taken a sharp turn toward the GOP, abandoning even the moderates. Landrieu was popular there, but she would want to back off pro-choice stances from the past if she wants a chance. She hasn't done that, and that has motivated me to change this prediction. Cassidy takes it.

Kentucky: Of the southern toss-ups, this is where my most confidence is as a Democrat. McConnell has the organization and national power, which has caused many to say Grimes doesn't have a chance. She does, however, as anti-incumbent sentiment is strong there, and she has run a fantastic campaign. She's strong, dynamic, and feels just right for the state. The Dems take Kentucky narrowly; Grimes wins.

North Carolina: I had Hagan winning here for awhile, but her chances are slimming by the day. She isn't an especially exciting candidate and anti-incumbent sentiment will prove strong here as well. This will be a close one, but I have Tillis narrowly here.

What about Colorado? And Kentucky... just no

As you can see, I have Colorado at Lean D.

And Kentucky...oh yes.

Kentucky will probably be close, but if Grimes manages to win there, I don't see how North Carolina would throw Hagan out.
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Flake
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« Reply #120 on: August 10, 2014, 11:44:55 PM »



Update
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Flake
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« Reply #121 on: September 02, 2014, 10:21:10 AM »

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Mister Mets
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« Reply #122 on: September 06, 2014, 09:58:07 AM »

The way it seems to me...

Safe Democratic
Hawaii
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Delaware

Likely Democratic
New Mexico
New Jersey
Oregon
Virginia
Illinois
Minnesota

Leans Democratic
New Hampshire

Toss-up (Edge to Democrat)
Colorado
Michigan

Toss-Up (Edge to Republican)
Iowa
Alaska
Arkansas
North Carolina

Leans Republican
Kentucky
Kansas
Georgia
Louisiana (Likely to go into runoff)

Likely Republican
West Virginia
South Dakota

Safe Republican
Texas
Nebraska
Montana
Oklahomas
South Carolinas
Maine
Tennessee
Wyoming
Idaho
Alabama (Uncontested)
Mississippi
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SWE
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« Reply #123 on: September 06, 2014, 12:24:13 PM »

UPDATE:
Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Dan Sullivan (R) PURE TOSSUP
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) TOSSUP/TILT R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def. Kevin Wade SAFE D

Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) LEAN R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D) def. Joni Ernst (R) TOSSUP/TILT D

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Greg Orman (I/D) LEAN R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D) LEAN  R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN R
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R

Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) LIKELY D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Mike McFadden SAFE D (R)

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) SAFE R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. Amanda Curtis (D) SAFE R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Jeff Bell (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Allen Weh (R) SAFE D

North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) def. Kay Hagan (D) PURE TOSSUP
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Mark Zaccaria (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) SAFE R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R

Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) SAFE R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R


For a net gain of R+6
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #124 on: September 06, 2014, 09:01:07 PM »
« Edited: September 06, 2014, 09:03:15 PM by Illuminati Blood Drinker »



R+4
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