2014 Senatorial Predictions
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 02:01:06 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2014 Senatorial Predictions
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6]
Latest 2014 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
K.Dobrev (O-BGR)MapProfile 11-04 1 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
Juin (R-CO)MapProfile 11-03 32 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 11-02 3 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 0
kgt107 ()Map 10-21 1 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 0
jamesyons (R-VA)MapProfile 10-23 10 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
Oldiesfreak1854 (R-MI)MapProfile 10-31 13 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
PandaExpress (D-JPN)MapProfile 11-01 2 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
deus naturae (L-NY)MapProfile 11-02 6 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
liberal96 (D-NY)MapProfile 11-03 8 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ben Kenobi ()MapProfile 11-04 1 R +12 27 (+12) 9 (-12) 0 (0) 0
Gass3268 (D-MD)MapProfile 11-04 2 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 0
ThePoliticalGuy (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 20 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 0
Olawakandi (G-CA)MapProfile 11-04 435 Even 16 (+1) 19 (-2) 1 (+1) 0
albaleman (D-MN)MapProfile 11-04 8 R +5 20 (+5) 15 (-6) 1 (+1) 0
ground_x (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 5 R +4 19 (+4) 16 (-5) 1 (+1) 0
MilesC56 (I-VA)MapProfile 11-04 37 R +6 21 (+6) 15 (-6) 0 (0) 0
ilikeverin (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 1 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
Xiivi (D-FRA)MapProfile 11-04 5 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 0
benconstine (D-VA)MapProfile 11-04 9 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
slick67 (R-SC)
by slick67 on 2014-12-10 @ 08:29:37
MapProfile 11-03 21 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 1
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2014-12-04 @ 13:19:50
MapProfile 10-19 97 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 6
colin (I-ON)
by KS21 on 2014-11-20 @ 08:45:47
MapProfile 10-25 17 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 6
MATTROSE94 (D-NJ)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-10 @ 10:44:28
MapProfile 10-30 38 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 1
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)
by dmurphy1984 on 2014-11-05 @ 05:41:19
Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-04 @ 01:58:43
MapProfile 11-04 10 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 1
IceSpear (D-PA)
by IceSpear on 2014-11-04 @ 01:02:42
MapProfile 11-04 22 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 2
BushCountry (I-IN)
by wingindy on 2014-11-04 @ 00:29:01
MapProfile 11-03 34 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 5
Olawakandi (G-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 17:16:21
MapProfile 11-02 433 R +2 17 (+2) 18 (-3) 1 (+1) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 16:44:11
MapProfile 11-02 9 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2014 Senatorial Predictions  (Read 225032 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #125 on: September 07, 2014, 05:39:35 AM »

Using the most conservative estimate (thus with many tossups and leans and few safe seats):



Realistically, I'd put IL, MN, SD and NJ in the safe column.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #126 on: September 10, 2014, 02:55:28 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2014, 04:28:29 PM by ElectionsGuy »

Post-Primary Season Update:

Safe D: DE, HI (S), IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
Likely D: MI, MN, NH
Lean D: CO
Toss-Up: AK, AR, IA, KS, LA, NC
Lean R: GA, KY
Likely R: SD
Safe R: AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK (S), SC, SC (S), TN, TX, WV, WY

Here's my guesstimate of what percentages will look like for each race.

Alabama:

Sessions - 100%

Alaska:


Sullivan - 48%
Begich - 47%

Arkansas:


Cotton - 51%
Pryor - 47%

Colorado:


Udall - 50%
Gardner - 47%

Delaware:

Coons - 64%
Wade - 35%

Georgia (pre-runoff)Sad

Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 45%

Hawaii (S)Sad

Schatz - 65%
Cavasso - 34%

Idaho:

Risch - 65%
Mitchell - 35%

Illinois:

Durbin - 56%
Oberweis - 43%

Kansas*Sad

Roberts - 46%
Orman - 43%
Taylor - 9%

Kentucky:

McConnell - 52%
Grimes - 46%

Louisiana**Sad

Landrieu - 45%
Cassidy - 29%
Maness - 14%
Other - 12%

Cassidy - 52%
Landrieu - 48%

Maine:

Collins - 66%
Bellows - 34%

Massachusetts:


Markey - 62%
Herr - 37%

Michigan:


Peters - 53%
Land - 45%

Minnesota:


Franken - 54%
McFadden - 43%

Mississippi:

Cochran - 59%
Childers - 40%

Montana:


Daines - 58%
Curtis - 39%

Nebraska:

Sasse - 60%
Domina - 38%

New Hampshire:

Shaheen - 54%
Brown - 46%

New Jersey:

Booker - 58%
Bell - 40%

New Mexico:


Udall - 59%
Weh - 41%

North Carolina:


Hagan - 47%
Tillis - 46%

Oklahoma:

Inhofe - 65%
Silverstein - 34%

Oklahoma (S)Sad

Lankford - 64%
Johnson - 35%

Oregon:

Merkley - 57%
Wehby - 41%

Rhode Island:

Reed - 67%
Zaccaria - 33%

South Carolina:

Graham - 57%
Hutto - 42%

South Carolina (S)Sad

Scott - 58%
Dickerson - 41%

South Dakota


Rounds - 46%
Weiland - 32%
Pressler - 22%

Tennessee:


Alexander - 63%
Ball - 35%

Texas:


Cornyn - 58%
Alameel - 40%

Virginia:

Warner - 58%
Gillespie - 38%

West Virginia:

Capito - 57%
Tennant - 42%

Wyoming:


Enzi - 70%

Hardy - 29%

*Assuming Taylor stays on the ballot
**Both the pre-runoff and runoff results

Profile Prediction (probably need to update this as well)

Net Gain R+6, realistic gain is anywhere from 4 to 8. Recent moves: SD from Safe to Likely. WV from Likely to Safe. IA from Lean D to toss-up. Sorry for the long list but likely I won't be updating again until October
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,004
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #127 on: September 24, 2014, 12:59:09 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2014, 02:05:26 PM by SPC »

Safe GOP (>98% Chance of Victory)
All unlisted GOP seats + Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota

Advantage GOP (60-98% Chance of Victory)
Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky

Tossup
Alaska*, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas*, Louisiana*

Advantage DEM
Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina

Safe DEM
All unlisted DEM seats

Asterisked seats would enter the colored category if additional polling information validated what scarce polling data is available.

Georgia would be in the tossup category due to Perdue's insignificant edge in polling, but the hurdle of a runoff works to Perdue's advantage (although I think the turnout difference between the general and the runoff would be far less pronounced than in 2008, when Obama was on the ballot in a presidential year)

Louisiana remains in the tossup category because Cassidy's current polling advantage is both unconfirmed by multiple sources and less than Manness's vote share. Given that it is uncertain whether Republicans will capture 5 or more seats on Election Day, I am not prepared to write off Landrieu's chances in a runoff. However, if Cassidy is truly ahead in the general election, it is hard to see Landrieu prevailing in a runoff, even if Republicans fall short of a majority.

Given my tendency to be slightly optimistic regarding Republican electoral chances (see my 2006, 2010, and 2012 predictions), I am inclined to assign the tossup seats without an asterisk next to them to the Democrats, if forced to choose.
Logged
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,461
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #128 on: September 24, 2014, 03:53:04 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2014, 03:59:48 PM by OC »

Purple states

CO, NH, MI, IA, NC  Dem

KS indy pickup

Minimum seats Dem need for control is 47 without La and AK

For now I am calling it 47-3-50 & VP Biden breaks tie while La and Ga may head into runoff.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #129 on: October 12, 2014, 04:06:19 PM »

Update (2nd last one before 11/4)

Safe D: DE, HI (S), IL, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
Likely D: NH
Lean D: NC
Toss-Up: AK, CO, IA, KS, LA
Lean R: AR, GA, KY, SD
Likely R: None
Safe R: AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK (S), SC, SC (S), TN, TX, WV, WY

Changes since last update:

MI: Likely D --> Safe D
MN: Likely D --> Safe D
NC: Toss-Up --> Lean D
CO: Lean D --> Toss-Up
AR: Toss-Up --> Lean R
SD: Likely R --> Lean R

Profile Prediction

Guesstimate of margins for competitive races:

Alaska:

Sullivan - 50%
Begich - 46%

Arkansas:

Cotton - 52%
Pryor - 47%

Colorado:

Udall - 49%
Gardner - 48%

Georgia:

Perdue
- 52%
Nunn - 45%

Iowa:

Ernst - 50%
Braley - 48%

Kansas:

Orman - 49%
Roberts - 46%

Kentucky:

McConnell - 53%
Grimes - 45%

Louisiana:

Landrieu - 44%
Cassidy - 36%
Maness - 11%

Cassidy - 51%
Landrieu - 49%

North Carolina:

Hagan - 48%
Tillis - 46%

South Dakota:

Rounds - 39%
Pressler - 32%
Weiland - 27%

For a net gain of R+6 or R+7 (depending on Orman), with 52 or 51 Republicans (with or without Orman) and 48 or 49 Democrats (with or without Orman).
Logged
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,461
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #130 on: October 13, 2014, 01:50:28 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2014, 02:03:40 PM by OC »

Begich, Grimes and Weiland win.

53-47
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #131 on: October 18, 2014, 01:57:22 PM »

My most hackish senate map



July 2013
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #132 on: October 18, 2014, 03:49:17 PM »


I remember back in 2013 when people were doubtful about Maine, Montana was assumed Democrat because #Schweitzer4Senate, West Virginia was assumed democrat because it never votes Republican for Congress, and all the other battlegrounds were assumed democratic because muh Incumbency (except for McConnell of course)

Good times.

Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,820
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #133 on: October 20, 2014, 05:31:23 AM »

Here's my newest map:



The states I'm least certain about are IA, NH, KS
Logged
Illuminati Blood Drinker
phwezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,528
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.42, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #134 on: October 21, 2014, 10:39:32 PM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Georgia: David Perdue (R) (Lean R HOLD)
Hawaii: Brian Schatz (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Kansas: Greg Orman (I) (Tossup)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) (Lean R HOLD)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Maine: Susan Collins (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) (Safe R GAIN)
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) (Safe R HOLD)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaneen (D) (Lean D HOLD)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) (Safe D HOLD)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) (Safe D HOLD)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) (Lean D HOLD)
Oklahoma (1): Jim Inhofe (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Oklahoma (2): James Lankford (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) (Safe D HOLD)
South Carolina (1): Lindsey Graham (R) (Safe R HOLD)
South Carolina (2): Tim Scott (R) (Safe R HOLD)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Texas: John Cornyn (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) (Safe D HOLD)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) (Safe R HOLD)

R+7

Composition of the 114th United States Senate:
Republican Party: 52 seats
Democratic Party: 45 seats
Independents: 3 seats
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #135 on: October 22, 2014, 04:58:55 AM »

Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #136 on: October 28, 2014, 03:30:43 PM »

Logged
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,461
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #137 on: October 28, 2014, 05:31:11 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2014, 05:46:29 PM by OC »

SFinal prediction
51D/48/1

Begich def Sullivan 51/49 (hold)

Cotton def Pryor 53/47 (R pick up)

Udall def Gardner 52/48 (hold)

Durbin def Oberweis 60/40

Braley def Ernst 51/49 (hold)

Orman def Roberts 47/43  (pick up)

Landrieu def Cassidy 53/47 (hold)

Collins def Bellows 70/28

Peters def Land 53/47 (hold)

Daines def Curtis 63/37 (R pick up)

Shaheen def Brown 54/46

Hagen def Tillis 51/49 (hold)

Rounds def Weiland 50/29 (R pick up)

Capito def Tennant 55/45 (R pickup)

Wash in senate
Logged
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,803
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #138 on: October 30, 2014, 10:25:07 AM »
« Edited: October 30, 2014, 10:27:19 AM by MATTROSE94 »



South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana are the only seats that I am 100% sure the Republicans will pick up. Gun to my head, I would give the Republicans a slight edge in Colorado, Arkansas, Louisiana, Iowa and Kansas and would probably give Michelle Nunn a very minuscule edge in Georgia however.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,767


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #139 on: November 02, 2014, 06:34:29 AM »

Stupid question, but is the prediction for GA and LA for the election now or for the run-off? Because my prediction is that the Democrats "win" both without breaking 50% but then lose the runoff. How should I enter the prediction in that scenario?
Logged
solarstorm
solarstorm2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,637
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #140 on: November 02, 2014, 11:07:09 AM »

Stupid question, but is the prediction for GA and LA for the election now or for the run-off? Because my prediction is that the Democrats "win" both without breaking 50% but then lose the runoff. How should I enter the prediction in that scenario?

Read the description in the header of the prediction page:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #141 on: November 02, 2014, 03:34:10 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2014, 05:05:59 AM by ElectionsGuy »

Final Prediction

Lean D: NH, NC
Toss-Up: CO, IA, KS, GA
Lean R: AK, LA
Likely R: AR, KY, SD
Safe R: MT, WV

Changes since last prediction:

NH: Likely D --> Lean D
AK: Toss-Up --> Lean R
LA: Toss-Up --> Lean R
GA: Lean R --> Toss-Up
AR: Lean R --> Likely R
KY: Lean R --> Likely R
SD: Lean R --> Likely R

Margins for close states:

Alaska

Begich - 46%
Sullivan - 51%

Arkansas

Pryor - 45%
Cotton - 53%

Colorado

Udall - 47%
Gardner - 48%

Georgia

Perdue - 48%
Nunn - 48%

Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 48%

Iowa

Ernst - 50%
Braley - 48%

Kansas

Orman - 49%
Roberts - 48%

Kentucky

McConnell - 54%
Grimes - 45%

Louisiana

Landrieu - 45%
Cassidy - 38%
Maness - 10%

Landrieu - 47%
Cassidy - 53%

New Hampshire

Shaheen - 52%
Brown - 48%

North Carolina

Hagan - 49%
Tillis - 47%

(Bolded = Incumbent)

Profile Prediction

R+8 or R+7 (depending on Orman). Republicans take the senate with at least 52 seats.
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #142 on: November 03, 2014, 07:12:36 PM »



Final prediction: 51* Democrats, 49 Republicans
Logged
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,220
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #143 on: November 03, 2014, 08:44:16 PM »

FINAL UPDATE:

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) def. Mark Begich (D) TOSSUP/TILT R
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) LIKELY  R
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R) def. Mark Udall (D) LEAN R

Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def. Kevin Wade SAFE D
Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) TOSSUP/TILT R  R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) def. Bruce Baley (D) TOSSUP/TILT R
Kansas: Greg Orman (I) def. Pat Roberts  (R)  TOSSUP /TILT I
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D) LIKELY  R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN R
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R

Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) SAFE D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Mike McFadden SAFE D (R)

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) SAFE R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. Amanda Curtis (D) SAFE R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Jeff Bell (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Allen Weh (R) SAFE D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Thom Tillis (R) LEAN D

Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Mark Zaccaria (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) LIKELY  R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R

Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) SAFE R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R


For a net gain of R+7/8, depending on how Orman cacuses
Logged
nolesfan2011
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,411
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.68, S: -7.48

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #144 on: November 03, 2014, 10:22:09 PM »

AL: Jeff Sessions (R) unopposed
*AK: Dan Sullivan (R) 49% (I) Mark Begich (D) 48% Others 2%
*AR: Tom Cotton (R) 53% (I) Mark Pryor (D) 44% Other 3%
*CO: Cory Gardner (R) 50% (I) Mark Udall (D) 48% Other 2%
DE: (I) Chris Coons (D) over 60%
GA: David Perdue (R) 49% Michelle Nunn (D) 47% Amanda Swafford (L) 4%. neither candidate breaks 50% GA goes to a January runoff.
HI: (I) Brian Schatz (D) over 60%
ID: (I) Jim Risch (R) over 60%
IL: (I) Dick Durbin (D) under 55%
*IA: Joni Ernst (R) 51% Bruce Braley (D) 47% Other 2%
*KS: Greg Orman (I) 49% (I) Pat Roberts (R) 47% Randall Batson (L) 4%
KY: (I) Mitch McConnell 54% Alison Grimes (D) 43% David Patterson (L) 3%
LA: (I) Mary Landrieu (D) 44% Bill Cassidy (R) 37% Rob Maness (R) 15% Other 4%. Landreiu and Cassidy advance to a December h2h runoff, where Cassidy has a decided advantage (this is the jungle primary).
ME: (I) Susan Collins (R) over 55%
MA: (I) Ed Markey (D) over 55%
MI: Gary Peters (D) over 55%
MN: (I) Al Franken (D) under 55%
MS: (I) Thad Cochran (R) over 55%
*MT: Steve Daines (R) over 55%
NE: Ben Sasse (R) over 55%
*NH: Scott Brown (R) 51% (I) Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49%
NJ: (I) Cory Booker (D) over 55%
NM: (I) Mark Udall (D) under 55%
NC: (I) Kay Hagan (D) 50% Thom Tillis (R) 46% Sean Haugh (L) 4%
OK and OK-special: (I) Jim Inhofe (R) over 60% and James Lankford (R) over 60%
OR: (I) Jeff Merkley (D) over 55%
RI: (I) Jack Reed (D) over 65%
SC and SC-special: (I) Lindsey Graham (R) under 55% Thomas Ravenel (I) over 5%, and (I) Tim Scott (R) over 60%
*SD: Mike Rounds (R) 45% Rick Weiland (D) 36% Larry Pressler (I) 15% Gordon Howie (I) 4%
TN: (I) Lamar Alexander (R) over 55%
TX: (I) John Cornyn (R) over 55%
VA: (I) Mark Warner (D) under 55%
*WV Shelley Moore Capito (R) over 55%
WY: (I) Mike Enzi (R) over 60%

Before Colorado, Kansas, Alaska and New Hampshire get counted, and before the GA and LA runoffs, I have the Senate 48-46 in favor of the GOP.

If Kansas goes to the Indie/Dem Orman as I predict, Alaska goes to Sullivan by a hair, and Colorado goes to Gardner, that makes it 50-47 GOP before the GA and LA runoffs. They only need to win one of NH, GA, LA to take Senate control.

I have Scott Brown in an upset, and then after the December and January runoffs in LA and GA both going to the GOP (Cassidy and Perdue will be favored) the final Senate result should be 53-47 in favor of the GOP, a six seat advantage.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #145 on: November 19, 2014, 10:49:42 PM »

Obviously in certain places votes are still being counted, but the results are pretty clear-cut now in nearly every race. I don't want to rush anyone, but when will we see scores and rankings?
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,004
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #146 on: November 19, 2014, 11:35:12 PM »

Obviously in certain places votes are still being counted, but the results are pretty clear-cut now in nearly every race. I don't want to rush anyone, but when will we see scores and rankings?

We should probably wait for Louisiana to be over, if only for ceremonial purposes.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #147 on: November 23, 2014, 11:42:55 PM »

Obviously in certain places votes are still being counted, but the results are pretty clear-cut now in nearly every race. I don't want to rush anyone, but when will we see scores and rankings?

Wouldn't we have to wait until all results are certified before we get scores? For example, Jerry Brown is currently sitting at 59.9% with some more votes left to count, and it matters in our score whether we put >50% or >60%. Plus there's still the Louisiana runoff.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 1.349 seconds with 11 queries.