2014 Senatorial Predictions
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Latest 2014 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
K.Dobrev (O-BGR)MapProfile 11-04 1 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
Juin (R-CO)MapProfile 11-03 32 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 11-02 3 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 0
kgt107 ()Map 10-21 1 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 0
jamesyons (R-VA)MapProfile 10-23 10 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
Oldiesfreak1854 (R-MI)MapProfile 10-31 13 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
PandaExpress (D-JPN)MapProfile 11-01 2 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
deus naturae (L-NY)MapProfile 11-02 6 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
liberal96 (D-NY)MapProfile 11-03 8 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ben Kenobi ()MapProfile 11-04 1 R +12 27 (+12) 9 (-12) 0 (0) 0
Gass3268 (D-MD)MapProfile 11-04 2 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 0
ThePoliticalGuy (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 20 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 0
Olawakandi (G-CA)MapProfile 11-04 435 Even 16 (+1) 19 (-2) 1 (+1) 0
albaleman (D-MN)MapProfile 11-04 8 R +5 20 (+5) 15 (-6) 1 (+1) 0
ground_x (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 5 R +4 19 (+4) 16 (-5) 1 (+1) 0
MilesC56 (I-VA)MapProfile 11-04 37 R +6 21 (+6) 15 (-6) 0 (0) 0
ilikeverin (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 1 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
Xiivi (D-FRA)MapProfile 11-04 5 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 0
benconstine (D-VA)MapProfile 11-04 9 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
slick67 (R-SC)
by slick67 on 2014-12-10 @ 08:29:37
MapProfile 11-03 21 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 1
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2014-12-04 @ 13:19:50
MapProfile 10-19 97 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 6
colin (I-ON)
by KS21 on 2014-11-20 @ 08:45:47
MapProfile 10-25 17 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 6
MATTROSE94 (D-NJ)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-10 @ 10:44:28
MapProfile 10-30 38 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 1
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)
by dmurphy1984 on 2014-11-05 @ 05:41:19
Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-04 @ 01:58:43
MapProfile 11-04 10 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 1
IceSpear (D-PA)
by IceSpear on 2014-11-04 @ 01:02:42
MapProfile 11-04 22 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 2
BushCountry (I-IN)
by wingindy on 2014-11-04 @ 00:29:01
MapProfile 11-03 34 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 5
Olawakandi (G-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 17:16:21
MapProfile 11-02 433 R +2 17 (+2) 18 (-3) 1 (+1) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 16:44:11
MapProfile 11-02 9 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2014 Senatorial Predictions  (Read 225030 times)
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Shadowlord88
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« Reply #25 on: November 29, 2013, 01:53:28 PM »

My current predictions. 

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)

Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)

Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska: Dave Heinemann (R)

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)

Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)

South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)

Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)


Overall, Republicans pick up two seats, but Democrats manage wins in Kentucky and Georgia.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #26 on: November 29, 2013, 02:37:48 PM »

Updated Predictions

Alabama- Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska- Mead Treadwell (R)
Arkansas- Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado- Mark Udall (D)
Delaware- Chris Coons (D)
Georgia- Michelle Nunn (D)
Illinois- Richard "Dick" Durbin (D)
Idaho- Jim Risch (R)
Iowa- Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas- Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
Louisana- Bill Cassidy (R)
Maine- Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts- Ed Markey (D)
Michigan- Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota- Al Franken (D)
Mississippi- Chris McDaniel (R)
Montana- Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska- Don Stenberg (R)
New Hampshire- Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey- Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico- Mark Udall (D)
North Carolina- Greg Brannon (R)
Oklahoma- Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon- Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island- Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina "A"- Lee Bright (R)
South Carolina "B- Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota- Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee- Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas- John Cornyn (R)
Virginia- Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia- Shelly Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming- Liz Cheney (R)

Net result is R+4... but they'll need a new leader.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #27 on: November 29, 2013, 03:04:05 PM »

Updated Predictions

Alabama- Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska- Mead Treadwell (R)
Arkansas- Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado- Mark Udall (D)
Delaware- Chris Coons (D)
Georgia- Michelle Nunn (D)
Illinois- Richard "Dick" Durbin (D)
Idaho- Jim Risch (R)
Iowa- Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas- Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
Louisana- Bill Cassidy (R)
Maine- Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts- Ed Markey (D)
Michigan- Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota- Al Franken (D)
Mississippi- Chris McDaniel (R)
Montana- Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska- Don Stenberg (R)
New Hampshire- Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey- Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico- Mark Udall (D)
North Carolina- Greg Brannon (R)
Oklahoma- Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon- Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island- Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina "A"- Lee Bright (R)
South Carolina "B- Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota- Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee- Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas- John Cornyn (R)
Virginia- Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia- Shelly Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming- Liz Cheney (R)

Net result is R+4... but they'll need a new leader.

Wouldn't this be R+5?
I can see most of this happening, except I'm not sure about Bannon in North Carolina.

Also, if this does happen, who ends up becoming the GOP Leader? Thune or Coryn?

You're right... I can't count worth jack...

As for the new GOP leader... I'd say it'll be Thune or Moran.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #28 on: November 29, 2013, 06:25:38 PM »

It will be 51-49 setting up what will be the tie breakers in 2016 in Illinois and NV.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #29 on: December 02, 2013, 03:46:50 AM »
« Edited: January 31, 2014, 07:46:24 PM by ElectionsGuy »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) --> Safe R
Alaska: Mead Treadwell (R) --> Toss-Up
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) --> Lean R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) --> Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) --> Safe D
Georgia: Republican (R) --> Lean R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) --> Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) --> Safe R
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) --> Lean D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) --> Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) --> Lean R
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) --> Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins (R) --> Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) --> Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) --> Toss-Up
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) --> Likely D
Mississippi: Cochran (R) --> Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) --> Likely R
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R) --> Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) --> Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) --> Safe D
New Mexico: Mark Udall (D) --> Safe D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) --> Toss-Up
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) --> Safe R
Oklahoma: James Lankford (R) --> Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) --> Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) --> Safe D
South Carolina: Linsey Graham (R) --> Safe R
South Carolina: Tim Scott (R) --> Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) --> Likely R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) --> Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) --> Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) --> Safe D
West Virginia: Shelley Capito (R) --> Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) --> Safe R

Here's my profile prediction

For a net gain of R+5 (50/50). These are subject to change obviously, and this will be updated in the future according to primary results and future polls. Eventually, I'll add result number estimates. Right now, Arkansas, Alaska, and Louisiana are all very fragile in terms of predictions.

Update: Moving Michigan from Lean D to Toss-Up, at least for a while. Land has been leading in the polls for a while now. Also NC Lean D --> Toss-Up. Hagan is statistically tied in (non-junk) recent polls.

Update
: Moving Colorado from Likely D to Lean D and Arkansas from Toss-Up to Lean R. Added Oklahoma special race. Also moved my Alaska prediction from Begich to Treadwell. Prediction is very shaky there but its still a toss-up until we get more info on the race.
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SPC
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« Reply #30 on: December 05, 2013, 07:24:42 PM »
« Edited: December 30, 2013, 01:48:24 AM by SPC »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions
Alaska: Mead Treadwell
Arkansas: Tom Cotton
Colorado: Mark Udall
Delaware: Chris Coons
Georgia: Paul Broun
Hawaii: Brian Schatz
Idaho: Jim Risch
Illinois: Dick Durbin
Iowa: Matt Whitaker
Kansas: Pat Roberts
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell
Louisiana: David Cassidy
Maine: Susan Collins
Massachusetts: Ed Markey
Michigan: Terri Lynn Land
Minnesota: Al Franken
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel
Montana: Steve Daines
Nebraska: Shane Osborn
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New Mexico: Tom Udall
North Carolina: Greg Brannon
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe
Oregon: Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island: Jack Reed
South Carolina: Lee Bright
South Carolina: Tim Scott
South Dakota: Mike Rounds
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander
Texas: John Cornyn
Virginia: Mark Warner
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming: Mike Enzi
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #31 on: December 06, 2013, 12:34:23 PM »

AL: Safe R
AK: Tossup
AR: Lean R
CO: Likely D
DE: Safe D
GA: Likely R
HI: Lean Hanabusa/Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Safe D
IA: Likely D
KS: Safe R/Roberts
KY: Likely R
LA: Tossup
ME: Safe R
MI: Likely D
MS: Safe R/Lean McDaniel
MT: Likely R
NJ: Safe D
NM: Safe D
NC: Tossup
OK: Safe R
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
WV: Likely R
WY: Safe R/Likely Enzi
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #32 on: December 06, 2013, 02:33:48 PM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) (+1)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Phil Gingrey (R)
Hawaii special: Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) (R+1)
Nebraska:  Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) (+1)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Natalie Tennant (D)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Republicans pick up three seats, so Senate composition come 2015 is 52-47 favoring the Democrats.

Landrieu and Tennant squeak-out victories in their respective states.

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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #33 on: December 06, 2013, 08:56:20 PM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

R+3. 52-47 in favor of Democrats.
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Creativemind15
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« Reply #34 on: December 23, 2013, 11:31:56 PM »

My predictions as of December 23, 2013.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Mead Treadwell (R)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Ken Buck (R)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def. Christine O'Donnell (R)
Georgia: Phil Gingrey (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii Special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavasso (R)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) def. Bob Vander Plaats (R)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Chad Taylor (D)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) def. Bill Cassidy (R)
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Gabriel Gomez (R)
Michigan: Terri Lynn Land (R) def. Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Jim Abeler (R)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. John Walsh (D)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Thom Tillis (R)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Jay Stamper (D)
South Carolina Special: Tim Scott (R) def. Rick Wade (D)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D), Larry Pressler (I)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D)
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. David Alameel (D)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def. Natalie Tennant (D)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
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Flake
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« Reply #35 on: December 28, 2013, 08:26:10 PM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) (+1)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) (+1)
Hawaii: Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) (+1)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) (+1)
Nebraska:  Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Larry Pressler (I) (+1)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) (+1)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Republicans gain two seats in the Senate, making it a 51-46-3 Senate in favor of the Democrats, unsure if Pressler can pull it off in South Dakota, and if he does, unsure of what party he's going to caucus with.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #36 on: December 29, 2013, 11:31:02 AM »

MnT Walsh
MI Gary Peters
Ia Braley
SD Pressler
Ga Nunn (run off)
KY Grimes
Ark Pryor
Nj Booker (full term)
MA Markey (full term)
NH Shaheen

AK Treadwill
LA Cassidy (run off)
NC Brandon
WVa SMC

50D-47R-3I
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #37 on: December 29, 2013, 03:56:05 PM »

South Dakota: Larry Pressler (I) (+1)

I've never thought of this. Do you know what kind of chance he actually has at winning? He'll probably effect the race quite a bit, but really haven't seen any polling of him.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #38 on: December 29, 2013, 04:21:34 PM »

I'd be surprised if Pressler hit double digits, if he makes an impact at all. Seems rather anonymous and he's been out of it for nearly 20 years. Hardly a well-known, popular figure like King in ME.
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Deus Naturae
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« Reply #39 on: December 30, 2013, 01:20:04 AM »
« Edited: March 22, 2014, 06:00:45 PM by Rep. Deus »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

R+7, Pubs take the Senate 52-46-2
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morgieb
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« Reply #40 on: December 31, 2013, 06:29:21 AM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) - my gut says I'm being optimistic here, but in the absence of significant knowledge and the fear of Miller I guess I lean towards the incumbent.
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) - Pryor is toast IMO. Won't be as bad as Lincoln, but will still be bad.
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) - I'm getting worried that Colorado are starting to weary of Dems, but the opposition here is poor.
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Karen Handel (R) - with any other Republican, I'm gonna back Nunn though.
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) - Hawaii is the only place where Hanabusa's primary challenge is viable IMO, but the way they are campaigning means I feel that Schatz has the slight edge. Either will win the general election.
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) - would be more competitive with a strong candidate though.
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) - THE race to watch. Will favour McConnell for now, but to not believe that Grimes has a shot is pretty unrealistic.
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) - gaining the Chairmanship of the Energy Committee will only help her fundraising. Will probably depend also on how many seats the Dems are sitting on, being 49-49 or 49-50 will probably hand the state to Cassidy.
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) - hopefully the Dems also put gay marriage on the ballot here.
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel (R) - he WILL make the race competitive, but it's still Mississippi.
Montana: Steve Daines (R) - has tightened given Baucus's resignation.
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) - would be an R pickup with a stronger candidate.
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) - unconvinced that Pressler will have much of an impact. He's been out of office too long for people to remember him, and this isn't as independent-friendly as Maine.
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) - this is getting interesting though.
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) - nup, a Dem pickup isn't happening unless Capito gets primaried.
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) - why did Cheney even bother?
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #41 on: December 31, 2013, 12:07:14 PM »

I like our chances. In senate and gov. U can change the races around as much as u want but Mnt and AK as well as Ga and La are our firewall. Barring the GOP sweeping the runoffs, there is no path to Senate majority. Picking up gov seats in vul states in MI with Black turnout will help our chances. It will be 49d-48r-3I.
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SWE
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« Reply #42 on: January 20, 2014, 06:05:19 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2015, 02:05:51 PM by SomebodyWhoExists »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieau (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: John Walsh (D)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #43 on: January 22, 2014, 03:39:25 PM »

Treadwill GOP pickup
Pryor  inc
Mark Udall inc
Handel or Kingston GOP hold
McConnell Inc
Landrieu inc
Peters Dem hold
Walsh Dem hold
Shaheen inc
Tillis or Brannon GOP pickup
Rounds GOP pickup
Warner inc
SMC GOP pickup
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #44 on: February 05, 2014, 05:46:13 AM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) R+1
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) D+1
Hawaii (Special): Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) D+1
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Edward Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel (R)
Montana: John Walsh (D)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina (Special): Tim Scott (R)

South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) R+1
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) R+1
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Overall: R+1 (52 D (2 I) - 46 R)
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #45 on: February 05, 2014, 10:22:44 AM »

AK Sullivan R pickup
Ark Cotton R pickup
CO Mark Udall
GA Handal or Kingston
KY Lundergren Grimes D pickup
LA Mary Landrieu
MI Gary Peters
MT John Walsh
NH Shaheen
NC Tillis R pickup
SD Larry Pressler
Va Mark Warner
WVa SMC R pickup
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The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
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« Reply #46 on: February 06, 2014, 01:16:47 PM »

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pretzel1998
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« Reply #47 on: February 08, 2014, 11:47:07 PM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) R+1 (My classification is Lean R, very close still)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)

Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) D+1 ( Lean D, she is giving a very strong challenge)
Hawaii (Special): Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) D+1 (Lean D, But it will be a huge dogfight to the end)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) (She has been in these very tough positions before, I think she will pull it out again)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Edward Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) ( Lean D, based on Michigans voting tendencys, but the Gop is giving this a real good try)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) (I do want to see if Jim Hood runs though)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) R+1 (Safe R, I dont see the Democrats winning this unless something like a Todd Akin happens to Daines)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) (Waiting for Scott Brown to do something)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) (Lean D, she has seems to have stabilized her numbers)

Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford (R)

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)

South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina (Special): Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) R+1 ( Lean R, I haven't seen alot of numbers from this race, last numbers were 40% Rounds, 34% Weiland so not a complete blowout)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)

Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) R+1 (Safe R, cannot see the Democrats holding this even with a Todd Akin like explosion against Capito.
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)


2 Democratic gains:
Georgia
Kentucky


4 Republican Gains:
Arkansas
West Virginia
Montana
South Dakota


+2 Republican

Senate goes from 55-45 Democrat Control to 53-47 Democrat Control

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #48 on: February 09, 2014, 12:16:29 AM »


Guys, why do you think John Walsh will win? Because he's the incumbent now?? That just doesn't justify it, I don't think anybody will think of him as an incumbent either. He's down by at least 12 in the polls, and Obama is increasing his unpopularity here.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #49 on: February 16, 2014, 12:48:07 PM »

Time to update

Alabama-Jeff Sessions
Alaska-Mead Treadwell/Daniel Sullivan (Whichever of these two challengers emerges with GOP nomination should win)
Arkansas-Tom Cotton (If your're looking for a safe bet on an incumbent to go down, Pryor is your bet)
Colorado-Mark Udall (This one will be closer than previously thought, but I think Hickenlooper is more likely to lose)
Delaware-Chris Coons (Only way this gets interesting is if someone like Beau Biden is a late primary entry)
Georgia-Karen Handel(Upset Special A) (I think the GOP primary is close enough that only Art Gardner and Derrick Grayson, Handel is probably the best candidate to match Nunn's advantage's, but it will be very close.)
Hawaii-Brian Schatz (Yes, this Primary will get nasty, yes it could get competitive, but if former popular former Governor Linda Lingle couldn't win here, how could Cam Cavasso?)
Idaho-Jim Risch
Illinois-Dick Durbin
Iowa-Bruce Braley
Kansas-Pat Roberts (The sad part is if Milton Wolf wins the GOP primary, He'd win the General with Ease)
Kentucky-Alison Lundergan Grimes (Gut tells me she beats McConnell, loses narrowly to Bevin, therefore upset special B)
Louisiana-Bill Cassidy (In Runoff) (30% chance Landrieu doesn't make the runoff)
Maine-Susan Collins
Massachusetts- Ed Markey
Michigan-Gary Peters
MinnesotaAl Franken
Mississippi-Chris McDaniel
Montana-Steve Daines(Even with Walsh becoming an incumbent, the Democrats are still heavy underdogs)
Nebraska-Ben Sasse
New HampshireJeanne Shaheen( If Scott Brown makes up his mind about what he's doing, this race could be more competitive... but Shaheen would still be favored)
New Jersey Cory Booker (Even more of a prohibitive favorite with the Christie imbroglio going on)
New Mexico-Tom Udall
North Carolina Greg Brannon
Oklahoma-Jim Inhofe
Oklahoma 'B' T.W Shannon
Oregon-Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island-Jack Reed
South Carolina-Lee Bright(Graham needs to get over 50%, because I don't think he's going to win a runoff)
South Carolina "B" Tim Scott
South Dakota Mike Rounds (Pressler gets to about 10-15% but I think he draws from both candidates equally, thus a Rounds victory)
TennesseeJoe Carr (Again, doesn't matter who wins the GOP primary, they'll win the General with ease)
Texas John Cornyn (If Steve Stockman was slightly competent he could beat Cornyn)
Virginia Mark Warner (This one has the potential to get closer (5-10% margin) with Gillespie, but there's no guarantee  that he will be the nominee.
West Virginia Shelly Moore Capito(Even with Tennant, this one's gone)
Wyoming Mike Enzi (All the fun got sucked out of this race when Liz Cheney dropped out)
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