2014 Senatorial Predictions
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Latest 2014 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
K.Dobrev (O-BGR)MapProfile 11-04 1 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
Juin (R-CO)MapProfile 11-03 32 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 11-02 3 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 0
kgt107 ()Map 10-21 1 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 0
jamesyons (R-VA)MapProfile 10-23 10 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
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deus naturae (L-NY)MapProfile 11-02 6 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
liberal96 (D-NY)MapProfile 11-03 8 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
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benconstine (D-VA)MapProfile 11-04 9 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
slick67 (R-SC)
by slick67 on 2014-12-10 @ 08:29:37
MapProfile 11-03 21 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 1
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2014-12-04 @ 13:19:50
MapProfile 10-19 97 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 6
colin (I-ON)
by KS21 on 2014-11-20 @ 08:45:47
MapProfile 10-25 17 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 6
MATTROSE94 (D-NJ)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-10 @ 10:44:28
MapProfile 10-30 38 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 1
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)
by dmurphy1984 on 2014-11-05 @ 05:41:19
Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-04 @ 01:58:43
MapProfile 11-04 10 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 1
IceSpear (D-PA)
by IceSpear on 2014-11-04 @ 01:02:42
MapProfile 11-04 22 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 2
BushCountry (I-IN)
by wingindy on 2014-11-04 @ 00:29:01
MapProfile 11-03 34 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 5
Olawakandi (G-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 17:16:21
MapProfile 11-02 433 R +2 17 (+2) 18 (-3) 1 (+1) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 16:44:11
MapProfile 11-02 9 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2014 Senatorial Predictions  (Read 225052 times)
MATTROSE94
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« Reply #75 on: April 18, 2014, 01:57:40 PM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (Republican)
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (Republican)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (Republican)
Colorado: Corey Gardner (Republican)

Delaware: Chris Coons (Democrat)
Georgia: David Perdue (Republican)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (Democrat)
Idaho: Jim Risch (Republican)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (Democrat)
Iowa: Joni Ernst (Republican)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (Republican)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (Republican)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (Republican)
Maine: Susan Collins (Republican)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (Democrat)
Michigan: Terri Lyn Land (Republican)
Minnesota: Al Franken (Democrat)
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel (Republican)
Montana: Steve Daines (Republican)
Nebraska: Dave Heineman (Republican)
New Hampshire: Scott Brown (Republican)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (Democrat)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (Democrat)

North Carolina: Thom Tillis (Republican)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (Republican)
Oklahoma (Special Election): James Lankford (Republican)

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (Democrat)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (Democrat)
South Carolina: Lee Bright (Republican)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (Republican)

South Dakota: Mike Rounds (Republican)
Tennessee: Joe Carr (Republican)
Texas: John Cornyn (Republican)
Virginia: Mark Warner (Democrat)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (Republican)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (Republican)

All in all, the Senate races will turn out badly for the Democrats. In 2016, however, there is a strong possibility that the Democrats will regain the Senate due to the fact that many vulnerable Republicans first elected in 2010 are up for re-election in states that will likely go Democratic in the Presidential race.
That's awfully pessimistic, things just aren't that dire and if anything the mood is improving for Democrats.
I just have a gut feeling that the Democrats are going to fare poorly in the Senate races this year (though I see them doing pretty well in the Gubernatorial races and some House races).
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #76 on: May 04, 2014, 11:40:29 AM »

I have updated the 2014 US Senate Predictions to include OK Special.  Please update your predictions.
Enjoy,
Dave
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SPC
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« Reply #77 on: May 04, 2014, 02:23:50 PM »

In the event of a runoff in Louisiana and/or Georgia, will our predictions be graded based on the runoff results or the Election Day results?
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« Reply #78 on: May 04, 2014, 03:34:48 PM »

The one that matters is the one that elects the candidate.  So neither of these can be <50%.
Enjoy,
Dave
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #79 on: May 05, 2014, 01:31:31 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2014, 01:35:26 PM by OC »

Begich def Sullivan
Pryor def Cotton
Grimes def McConnell
Hagen def Tillis

Cassidy wins in runoff
Kingston wins in runoff
SMC def Tennant
Rounds def Weilan
Daines def Walsh

3-5 seat net loss for Dems
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SWE
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« Reply #80 on: May 14, 2014, 06:40:41 PM »

UPDATE:
Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Dan Sullivan (R) LEAN D
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (R) def. Tom Cotton (R) PURE TOSSUP
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) SAFE D

Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) TOSSUP/TILT R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D) def. Joni Ernst (R) LIKELY D

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Chad Taylor (D) SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D)  TOSSUP/ TILT R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) PURE TOSSUP
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R

Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) LEAN D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Julianne Ortman SAFE D (R)

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) LIKELY R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. John Walsh (D) LEAN R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Murray Sabrin (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Dave Clements (R) SAFE D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Thom Tillis TOSSUP/TILT D

Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Raymond McKay (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) LIKELY R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R

Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) LEAN R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R


For a net gain of R+4
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« Reply #81 on: May 17, 2014, 10:33:15 PM »



Update
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Repub242
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« Reply #82 on: May 20, 2014, 06:28:39 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2014, 06:34:47 PM by Jack982 »

Alabama:Jeff Sessions
Alaska:Mark Begich
Arkansas:Tom Cotton
Colorado:Mark Udall
Delaware:Chris Coons
Georgia:Michelle Nunn
Hawaii:Colleen Hanabusa
Idaho:Jim Risch
Illinois:Dick Durbin
Kansas:Pat Roberts
Kentucky:Mitch McConnell
Louisiana:Mary Landrieu
Maine:Susan Collins
Massachusetts:Ed Markey
Michigan:Gary Peters
Minnesota:Al Franken
Mississippi:Thad Cochran
Montana:Steve Daines
Nebraska:Ben Sasse
New Hampshire:Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey:Cory Booker
New Mexico:Tom Udall
North Carolina:Kay Hagan
Oklahoma:Jim Inhofe
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford
Oregon:Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island:Jack Reed
South Carolina:Lindsey Graham
South Carolina (Special):Tim Scott
South Dakota:Mike Rounds
Tennessee:Lamar Alexander
Texas:John Cornyn
Virginia:Mark Warner
West Virginia:Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming:Mike Enzi
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #83 on: May 20, 2014, 09:25:00 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2014, 09:36:36 PM by Del Tachi »

Alabama:  Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas:  Mark Pryor, Tossup
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware:  Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia:  Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii:  Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois:  Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas:  Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana:  Mary Landrieu, Tossup
Maine:  Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan:  Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota:  Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi:  Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana:  Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska:  Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey:  Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico:  Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina:  Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma:  Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R

Oregon:  Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D

South Carolina:  Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special):  Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota:  Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee:  Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas:  John Cornyn, Safe R

Virginia:  Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia:  Natalie Tennant, Tossup
Wyoming:  Mike Enzi

Republicans net 3, resulting in a Democratic Senate (52-48).

I'll probably catch some flack for giving Landrieu and Pryor a pass while predicting that Hagan loses.  However, I think that Democrats are overstating their chances in North Carolina - Hagan's victory in 2008 was much narrower than Landrieu's or Pryor's, and a Hagan victory would be much more dependent on Black turnout than a Democratic victory in AR, LA, or WV. 

All in all, 2014 should be a good year for conservative Southern Democrats. 
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Never
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« Reply #84 on: May 21, 2014, 12:59:18 PM »

Alabama: Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan, Tossup
Arkansas: Tom Cotton, Tossup
Colorado: Cory Gardner, Tossup
Delaware: Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia: David Perdue, Lean R
Hawaii: Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin, Safe D
Iowa: Joni Ernst, Tossup
Kansas: Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell, Lean R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy, Tossup
Maine: Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters, Tossup
Minnesota: Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines, Safe R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaeen, Lean D
New Jersey: Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina: Thom Tillis, Tossup
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford or T.W. Shannon, Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley, Lean D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special): Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds, Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn, Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner, Lean D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito, Lean R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi, Safe R

Republicans +9
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #85 on: May 21, 2014, 11:28:48 PM »

Alabama:  Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas:  Mark Pryor, Tossup
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware:  Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia:  Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii:  Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois:  Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas:  Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana:  Mary Landrieu, Tossup
Maine:  Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan:  Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota:  Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi:  Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana:  Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska:  Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey:  Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico:  Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina:  Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma:  Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R

Oregon:  Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D

South Carolina:  Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special):  Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota:  Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee:  Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas:  John Cornyn, Safe R

Virginia:  Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia:  Natalie Tennant, Tossup
Wyoming:  Mike Enzi

Republicans net 3, resulting in a Democratic Senate (52-48).

I'll probably catch some flack for giving Landrieu and Pryor a pass while predicting that Hagan loses.  However, I think that Democrats are overstating their chances in North Carolina - Hagan's victory in 2008 was much narrower than Landrieu's or Pryor's, and a Hagan victory would be much more dependent on Black turnout than a Democratic victory in AR, LA, or WV. 

All in all, 2014 should be a good year for conservative Southern Democrats. 
Your projection is actually +4 (51-49 Dem), WV is democratic right now - if Capito wins it would be a pickup.

Also, Hagan's margin of victory in 2008 was actually bigger than Landrieu's- Hagan won by 8.5%, Landrieu won by just 6.4% (Landrieu was the only vulnerable incumbent democrat in 2008). Obviously Pryor won by a lot more than Hagan did, but that was only because Pryor had no major party opposition last time - he ran against a green party candidate - rather than because of anything Pryor had done or not done as Senator. As it was, that Green Party candidate got 20.5% of the vote (a very strong third-party performance), so there was a movement against him even then.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #86 on: May 25, 2014, 05:25:38 PM »

Alabama:  Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas:  Mark Pryor, Tossup
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware:  Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia:  Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii:  Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois:  Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas:  Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana:  Mary Landrieu, Tossup
Maine:  Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan:  Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota:  Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi:  Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana:  Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska:  Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey:  Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico:  Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina:  Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma:  Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R

Oregon:  Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D

South Carolina:  Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special):  Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota:  Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee:  Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas:  John Cornyn, Safe R

Virginia:  Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia:  Natalie Tennant, Tossup
Wyoming:  Mike Enzi

Republicans net 3, resulting in a Democratic Senate (52-48).

I'll probably catch some flack for giving Landrieu and Pryor a pass while predicting that Hagan loses.  However, I think that Democrats are overstating their chances in North Carolina - Hagan's victory in 2008 was much narrower than Landrieu's or Pryor's, and a Hagan victory would be much more dependent on Black turnout than a Democratic victory in AR, LA, or WV. 

All in all, 2014 should be a good year for conservative Southern Democrats. 
Your projection is actually +4 (51-49 Dem), WV is democratic right now - if Capito wins it would be a pickup.

Also, Hagan's margin of victory in 2008 was actually bigger than Landrieu's- Hagan won by 8.5%, Landrieu won by just 6.4% (Landrieu was the only vulnerable incumbent democrat in 2008). Obviously Pryor won by a lot more than Hagan did, but that was only because Pryor had no major party opposition last time - he ran against a green party candidate - rather than because of anything Pryor had done or not done as Senator. As it was, that Green Party candidate got 20.5% of the vote (a very strong third-party performance), so there was a movement against him even then.

But I said that Tennant wins...so WV is not a pickup. 
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #87 on: May 25, 2014, 06:30:35 PM »

Alabama:  Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas:  Mark Pryor, Tossup
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware:  Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia:  Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii:  Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois:  Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas:  Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana:  Mary Landrieu, Tossup
Maine:  Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan:  Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota:  Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi:  Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana:  Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska:  Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey:  Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico:  Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina:  Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma:  Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R

Oregon:  Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D

South Carolina:  Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special):  Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota:  Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee:  Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas:  John Cornyn, Safe R

Virginia:  Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia:  Natalie Tennant, Tossup
Wyoming:  Mike Enzi

Republicans net 3, resulting in a Democratic Senate (52-48).

I'll probably catch some flack for giving Landrieu and Pryor a pass while predicting that Hagan loses.  However, I think that Democrats are overstating their chances in North Carolina - Hagan's victory in 2008 was much narrower than Landrieu's or Pryor's, and a Hagan victory would be much more dependent on Black turnout than a Democratic victory in AR, LA, or WV. 

All in all, 2014 should be a good year for conservative Southern Democrats. 

I would seriously bet you $1000 that the combination of NC/WV (Kay Hagan losing AND Natalie Tennant winning) is not possible. 

I just can't see Tennant winning.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #88 on: May 25, 2014, 06:32:11 PM »

Also:
Alabama:  Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas:  Tom Cotton, Tossup (+1)
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware:  Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia:  Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii:  Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois:  Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas:  Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana:  Bill Cassidy (+1)
Maine:  Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan:  Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota:  Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi:  Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana:  Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska:  Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey:  Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico:  Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina:  Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma:  Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R
Oregon:  Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D
South Carolina:  Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special):  Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota:  Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee:  Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas:  John Cornyn, Safe R
Virginia:  Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia:  Shelley Moore Capito, Likely R(+1)
Wyoming:  Mike Enzi

So the final result is R+6 and a narrow GOP pickup.
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SPC
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« Reply #89 on: May 25, 2014, 07:31:11 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2014, 03:00:15 PM by SPC »

Update (with hopefully less hackishness):

Alabama: Jeff Sessions
Alaska: Mark Begich
Arkansas: Mark Pryor
Colorado: Mark Udall
Delaware: Chris Coons

Georgia: Jack Kingston (on second thought I think his greater support from the Tea Party will let him pull an upset over Perdue)
Hawaii: Brian Schatz
Idaho: Jim Risch
Illinois: Dick Durbin
Iowa: Bruce Braley (although I think this will be much closer than people expect)

Kansas: Pat Roberts
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (see Iowa)
Louisiana: David Cassidy (although, as I've stated before, I'm not sure what effect another GOP failure to pick up the Senate will have on Landrieu's chances in a runoff)
Maine: Susan Collins

Massachusetts: Ed Markey
Michigan: Gary Peters
Minnesota: Al Franken

Mississippi: Thad Cochran
Montana: Steve Daines
Nebraska: Ben Sasse

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New Mexico: Tom Udall

North Carolina: Thom Tillis (complete tossup IMO)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe
Oklahoma: T.W. Shannon

Oregon: Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island: Jack Reed

South Carolina: Lindsey Graham
South Carolina: Tim Scott
South Dakota: Mike Rounds
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander
Texas: John Cornyn

Virginia: Mark Warner
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming: Mike Enzi
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #90 on: May 31, 2014, 04:34:24 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2014, 04:36:17 PM by ElectionsGuy »

I'll update these after each big primary date from now on. After a state's candidates for Senate are determined I will add percentages and bold the winner.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions - Safe R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan - Toss-Up
Arkansas: Tom Cotton - 51%, Mark Pryor - 46%. Toss-Up
Colorado: Mark Udall - Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons - Safe D
*Georgia: David Perdue - 54%, Michelle Nunn - 46%. Lean R
Hawaii (S): Brian Schatz - Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch - 65%, Nels Mitchell - 33%. Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin - 58%, Jim Oberweis - 40%. Safe D
Iowa: Bruce Braley - Disputing between Likely or Lean D
Kansas: Pat Robertson - Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell - 51%, Alison L. Grimes - 48%. Lean R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy - Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins - Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey - Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters - Lean D
Minnesota: Al Franken - Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran - Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines - Likely R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse - 60%, Dave Domina - 38%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeane Shaheen - Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker - Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall - Safe D
North Carolina: Thom Tillis - 49%, Kay Hagan - 49%. Toss-Up
Oklahoma: James Inhofe - Safe R
Oklahoma (S): T.W. Shannon - Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley - 56%, Monica Wehby - 43%. Safe D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed - Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham - Safe R
South Carolina (S): Tim Scott - Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds - Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander - Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn - 58%, David Alameel - 40%. Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner - Safe D
West Virginia: Shelley M. Capito - 55%, Natalie Tennant - 44%. Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi - Safe R

State bolded = pickup. My prediction - R+7
*Runoff predictions. I don't think Perdue or Nunn will get across 50%, probably something like 49-48.
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Flake
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« Reply #91 on: June 04, 2014, 08:41:44 PM »



Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia, Minnesota, Illinois, Oregon, and Hawaii are safe Democratic seats.

Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico are likely Democratic seats.

Colorado is a lean Democratic seat.

Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina are pure toss-ups.

Kentucky is a lean Republican seat.

West Virginia, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Montana are likely Republican seats.

South Carolina, South Carolina (special), Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma (special), Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, and Maine are safe Republican seats.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #92 on: June 04, 2014, 08:53:55 PM »

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SWE
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« Reply #93 on: June 05, 2014, 05:34:12 AM »



Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia, Minnesota, Illinois, Oregon, and Hawaii are safe Democratic seats.

Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico are likely Democratic seats.

Colorado is a lean Democratic seat.

Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina are pure toss-ups.

Kentucky is a lean Republican seat.

West Virginia, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Montana are likely Republican seats.

South Carolina, South Carolina (special), Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma (special), Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, and Maine are safe Republican seats.
Huh
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Flake
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« Reply #94 on: June 05, 2014, 07:39:26 AM »



Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia, Minnesota, Illinois, Oregon, and Hawaii are safe Democratic seats.

Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico are likely Democratic seats.

Colorado is a lean Democratic seat.

Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina are pure toss-ups.

Kentucky is a lean Republican seat.

West Virginia, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Montana are likely Republican seats.

South Carolina, South Carolina (special), Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma (special), Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, and Maine are safe Republican seats.
Huh

Yes?
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Never
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« Reply #95 on: June 05, 2014, 09:36:22 AM »



Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia, Minnesota, Illinois, Oregon, and Hawaii are safe Democratic seats.

Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico are likely Democratic seats.

Colorado is a lean Democratic seat.

Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina are pure toss-ups.

Kentucky is a lean Republican seat.

West Virginia, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Montana are likely Republican seats.

South Carolina, South Carolina (special), Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma (special), Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, and Maine are safe Republican seats.
Huh

Yes?

Strange that someone would be confused, I actually thought this map was pretty reasonable save for Georgia...
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Never
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« Reply #96 on: June 05, 2014, 10:28:17 AM »



Safe Republican: Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Montana (pick-up), Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma (special), South Carolina, South Carolina (special), South Dakota (pick-up), Tennessee, Texas, Maine, West Virginia (pick-up)

Leans Republican (in order of confidence - from highest to lowest): Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky

Tossup Republican (in order of confidence): Louisiana (pick-up), North Carolina (pick-up), Arkansas (pick-up), Alaska (pick-up), Colorado (pick-up), Iowa (pick-up)

Tossup Democrat: None

Leans Democrat (in order of confidence): New Hampshire, Oregon, Michigan

Safe Democrat: Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Virginia

Currently projecting a Republican net gain of 9 seats.
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SWE
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« Reply #97 on: June 05, 2014, 02:15:30 PM »



Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia, Minnesota, Illinois, Oregon, and Hawaii are safe Democratic seats.

Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico are likely Democratic seats.

Colorado is a lean Democratic seat.

Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina are pure toss-ups.

Kentucky is a lean Republican seat.

West Virginia, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Montana are likely Republican seats.

South Carolina, South Carolina (special), Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma (special), Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, and Maine are safe Republican seats.
Huh

Yes?
Why is New Mexico only Likely D?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #98 on: June 06, 2014, 02:35:37 PM »

I'll be updating my prediction after the June 24th Mississippi runoff.  If McDaniel wins, that alone probably flips MS, AK, AR, KY and NC from GOP to the Democrats.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #99 on: June 06, 2014, 09:06:07 PM »

I'll be updating my prediction after the June 24th Mississippi runoff.  If McDaniel wins, that alone probably flips MS, AK, AR, KY and NC from GOP to the Democrats.

Isn't that a little extreme?
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