2014 Senatorial Predictions

[ElectionsGuy]

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) --> Safe R
Alaska: Mead Treadwell (R) --> Toss-Up
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) --> Lean R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) --> Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) --> Safe D
Georgia: Republican (R) --> Lean R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) --> Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) --> Safe R
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) --> Lean D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) --> Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) --> Lean R
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) --> Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins (R) --> Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) --> Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) --> Toss-Up
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) --> Likely D
Mississippi: Cochran (R) --> Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) --> Likely R
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R) --> Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) --> Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) --> Safe D
New Mexico: Mark Udall (D) --> Safe D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) --> Toss-Up
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) --> Safe R
Oklahoma: James Lankford (R) --> Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) --> Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) --> Safe D
South Carolina: Linsey Graham (R) --> Safe R
South Carolina: Tim Scott (R) --> Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) --> Likely R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) --> Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) --> Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) --> Safe D
West Virginia: Shelley Capito (R) --> Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) --> Safe R

Here's my profile prediction

For a net gain of R+5 (50/50). These are subject to change obviously, and this will be updated in the future according to primary results and future polls. Eventually, I'll add result number estimates. Right now, Arkansas, Alaska, and Louisiana are all very fragile in terms of predictions.

Update: Moving Michigan from Lean D to Toss-Up, at least for a while. Land has been leading in the polls for a while now. Also NC Lean D --> Toss-Up. Hagan is statistically tied in (non-junk) recent polls.

Update: Moving Colorado from Likely D to Lean D and Arkansas from Toss-Up to Lean R. Added Oklahoma special race. Also moved my Alaska prediction from Begich to Treadwell. Prediction is very shaky there but its still a toss-up until we get more info on the race.

[ElectionsGuy]

South Dakota: Larry Pressler (I) (+1)

I've never thought of this. Do you know what kind of chance he actually has at winning? He'll probably effect the race quite a bit, but really haven't seen any polling of him.

[ElectionsGuy]

MT John Walsh

Montana: John Walsh (D)

Montana: John Walsh (D)

Guys, why do you think John Walsh will win? Because he's the incumbent now?? That just doesn't justify it, I don't think anybody will think of him as an incumbent either. He's down by at least 12 in the polls, and Obama is increasing his unpopularity here.

[ElectionsGuy]

Update (hopefully you can see this)



Yes, this is probably a bit favorable to the republicans, but I'll make a few special notes:

Michigan: Only because Land has been consistently leading, will most likely pull back to Lean D before election time.

Oregon: Well, Merkley is getting some tough opponents, but no doubt I expect him to win.

Colorado: Lead has been shrunk to ~5 points, but GOP field is weak. This should resemble NV'10 or WA'10.

Arkansas: Base is dying, Pryor approval is awful, and Cotton is now leading in the polls.

Montana: This could be Lean R or Likely R, but I think people are really overestimating Walsh here.

Georgia and Kentucky: Despite ties in the polls, Georgia has in-elasticity for republicans and Kentucky has an incumbent. Both states should both resemble their elections from '08.

Everything else I think is self explanatory. R's should pick up anywhere from 4 to 7 seats (I'm currently predicting 5). Subject to change of course for many of these races.

[ElectionsGuy]

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R) - Safe R
*Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) - Toss-Up
*Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) - Lean R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) - Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) - Safe D
Georgia: Phil Gingrey (R) - Lean R
Hawaii: Brian Schatz (D) - Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) - Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) - 58%, Jim Oberweis (R) - 39%. Safe D
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) - Likely D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) - Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) - Lean R
*Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) - Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins (R) - Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) - Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) - Lean D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) - Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) - Safe R
*Montana: Steve Daines (R) - Likely R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) - 61%, Dave Domina (D) - 36%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) - Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) - Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) - Safe D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) - 49%, Thom Tillis - 48%. Toss-Up
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) - Safe R
Oklahoma: James Lankford (R) - Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) - Safe D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) - Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) - Safe R
South Carolina: Tim Scott (R) - Safe R
*South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) - Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) - Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) - 57%, David Alameel (D) - 40%. Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) - Safe D
*West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) - 56%, Natalie Tennant (D) - 42%. Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) - Safe R

* Pickup

Net R+6, republicans barely take the senate 51-47-2

[ElectionsGuy]

I'll update these after each big primary date from now on. After a state's candidates for Senate are determined I will add percentages and bold the winner.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions - Safe R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan - Toss-Up
Arkansas: Tom Cotton - 51%, Mark Pryor - 46%. Toss-Up
Colorado: Mark Udall - Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons - Safe D
*Georgia: David Perdue - 54%, Michelle Nunn - 46%. Lean R
Hawaii (S): Brian Schatz - Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch - 65%, Nels Mitchell - 33%. Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin - 58%, Jim Oberweis - 40%. Safe D
Iowa: Bruce Braley - Disputing between Likely or Lean D
Kansas: Pat Robertson - Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell - 51%, Alison L. Grimes - 48%. Lean R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy - Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins - Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey - Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters - Lean D
Minnesota: Al Franken - Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran - Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines - Likely R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse - 60%, Dave Domina - 38%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeane Shaheen - Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker - Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall - Safe D
North Carolina: Thom Tillis - 49%, Kay Hagan - 49%. Toss-Up
Oklahoma: James Inhofe - Safe R
Oklahoma (S): T.W. Shannon - Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley - 56%, Monica Wehby - 43%. Safe D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed - Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham - Safe R
South Carolina (S): Tim Scott - Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds - Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander - Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn - 58%, David Alameel - 40%. Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner - Safe D
West Virginia: Shelley M. Capito - 55%, Natalie Tennant - 44%. Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi - Safe R

State bolded = pickup. My prediction - R+7
*Runoff predictions. I don't think Perdue or Nunn will get across 50%, probably something like 49-48.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'll update these after each big primary date from now on. After a state's candidates for Senate are determined I will add percentages and bold the winner.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions - 100%. Safe R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan - Toss-Up
Arkansas: Tom Cotton - 50%, Mark Pryor - 47%. Toss-Up
Colorado: Mark Udall - 50%, Cory Gardner - 48%. Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons - Safe D
*Georgia: David Perdue - 54%, Michelle Nunn - 46%. Lean R
Hawaii (S): Brian Schatz - Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch - 65%, Nels Mitchell - 33%. Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin - 58%, Jim Oberweis - 40%. Safe D
Iowa: Bruce Braley - 51%, Joni Ernst, 48%. Lean D
Kansas: Pat Robertson - Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell - 51%, Alison L. Grimes - 48%. Lean R
*Louisiana: Bill Cassidy - 52%, Mary Landrieu - 48%. Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins - 65%, Shenna Bellows - 33%. Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey - Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters - Lean D
Minnesota: Al Franken - Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran - 59%, Travis Childers - 39%. Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines - 55%, John Walsh - 43%. Likely R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse - 60%, Dave Domina - 38%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeane Shaheen - Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker - 60%, Jeff Bell - 38%. Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall - 58%. Allen Weh - 41%. Safe D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan - 49%, Thom Tillis - 47%. Toss-Up
Oklahoma: James Inhofe - 62%, Matt Silverstein - 37%. Safe R
Oklahoma (S): James Lankford - Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley - 56%, Monica Wehby - 41%. Safe D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed - Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham - 56%. Brad Hutto - 42%. Safe R
South Carolina (S): Tim Scott - 58%, Joyce Dickerson - 40%. Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds - 56%, Rick Weiland - 39%. Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander - Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn - 58%, David Alameel - 40%. Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner - 57%, Ed Gillespie - 40%. Safe D
West Virginia: Shelley M. Capito - 55%, Natalie Tennant - 44%. Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi - Safe R

State bolded = pickup. My prediction - R+6
*Runoff predictions.

Profile Prediction

[ElectionsGuy]

Post-Primary Season Update:

Safe D: DE, HI (S), IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
Likely D: MI, MN, NH
Lean D: CO
Toss-Up: AK, AR, IA, KS, LA, NC
Lean R: GA, KY
Likely R: SD
Safe R: AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK (S), SC, SC (S), TN, TX, WV, WY

Here's my guesstimate of what percentages will look like for each race.

Alabama:

Sessions - 100%

Alaska:

Sullivan - 48%
Begich - 47%

Arkansas:

Cotton - 51%
Pryor - 47%

Colorado:

Udall - 50%
Gardner - 47%

Delaware:

Coons - 64%
Wade - 35%

Georgia (pre-runoff)

Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 45%

Hawaii (S)

Schatz - 65%
Cavasso - 34%

Idaho:

Risch - 65%
Mitchell - 35%

Illinois:

Durbin - 56%
Oberweis - 43%

Kansas*

Roberts - 46%
Orman - 43%
Taylor - 9%

Kentucky:

McConnell - 52%
Grimes - 46%

Louisiana**

Landrieu - 45%
Cassidy - 29%
Maness - 14%
Other - 12%

Cassidy - 52%
Landrieu - 48%

Maine:

Collins - 66%
Bellows - 34%

Massachusetts:

Markey - 62%
Herr - 37%

Michigan:

Peters - 53%
Land - 45%

Minnesota:

Franken - 54%
McFadden - 43%

Mississippi:

Cochran - 59%
Childers - 40%

Montana:

Daines - 58%
Curtis - 39%

Nebraska:

Sasse - 60%
Domina - 38%

New Hampshire:

Shaheen - 54%
Brown - 46%

New Jersey:

Booker - 58%
Bell - 40%

New Mexico:

Udall - 59%
Weh - 41%

North Carolina:

Hagan - 47%
Tillis - 46%

Oklahoma:

Inhofe - 65%
Silverstein - 34%

Oklahoma (S)

Lankford - 64%
Johnson - 35%

Oregon:

Merkley - 57%
Wehby - 41%

Rhode Island:

Reed - 67%
Zaccaria - 33%

South Carolina:

Graham - 57%
Hutto - 42%

South Carolina (S)

Scott - 58%
Dickerson - 41%

South Dakota

Rounds - 46%
Weiland - 32%
Pressler - 22%

Tennessee:

Alexander - 63%
Ball - 35%

Texas:

Cornyn - 58%
Alameel - 40%

Virginia:

Warner - 58%
Gillespie - 38%

West Virginia:

Capito - 57%
Tennant - 42%

Wyoming:

Enzi - 70%
Hardy - 29%

*Assuming Taylor stays on the ballot
**Both the pre-runoff and runoff results

Profile Prediction (probably need to update this as well)

Net Gain R+6, realistic gain is anywhere from 4 to 8. Recent moves: SD from Safe to Likely. WV from Likely to Safe. IA from Lean D to toss-up. Sorry for the long list but likely I won't be updating again until October

[ElectionsGuy]

Update (2nd last one before 11/4)

Safe D: DE, HI (S), IL, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
Likely D: NH
Lean D: NC
Toss-Up: AK, CO, IA, KS, LA
Lean R: AR, GA, KY, SD
Likely R: None
Safe R: AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK (S), SC, SC (S), TN, TX, WV, WY

Changes since last update:

MI: Likely D --> Safe D
MN: Likely D --> Safe D
NC: Toss-Up --> Lean D
CO: Lean D --> Toss-Up
AR: Toss-Up --> Lean R
SD: Likely R --> Lean R

Profile Prediction

Guesstimate of margins for competitive races:

Alaska:

Sullivan - 50%
Begich - 46%

Arkansas:

Cotton - 52%
Pryor - 47%

Colorado:

Udall - 49%
Gardner - 48%

Georgia:

Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 45%

Iowa:

Ernst - 50%
Braley - 48%

Kansas:

Orman - 49%
Roberts - 46%

Kentucky:

McConnell - 53%
Grimes - 45%

Louisiana:

Landrieu - 44%
Cassidy - 36%
Maness - 11%

Cassidy - 51%
Landrieu - 49%

North Carolina:

Hagan - 48%
Tillis - 46%

South Dakota:

Rounds - 39%
Pressler - 32%
Weiland - 27%

For a net gain of R+6 or R+7 (depending on Orman), with 52 or 51 Republicans (with or without Orman) and 48 or 49 Democrats (with or without Orman).

[ElectionsGuy]

My most hackish senate map



July 2013

I remember back in 2013 when people were doubtful about Maine, Montana was assumed Democrat because #Schweitzer4Senate, West Virginia was assumed democrat because it never votes Republican for Congress, and all the other battlegrounds were assumed democratic because muh Incumbency (except for McConnell of course)

Good times.

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Prediction

Lean D: NH, NC
Toss-Up: CO, IA, KS, GA
Lean R: AK, LA
Likely R: AR, KY, SD
Safe R: MT, WV

Changes since last prediction:

NH: Likely D --> Lean D
AK: Toss-Up --> Lean R
LA: Toss-Up --> Lean R
GA: Lean R --> Toss-Up
AR: Lean R --> Likely R
KY: Lean R --> Likely R
SD: Lean R --> Likely R

Margins for close states:

Alaska

Begich - 46%
Sullivan - 51%

Arkansas

Pryor - 45%
Cotton - 53%

Colorado

Udall - 47%
Gardner - 48%

Georgia

Perdue - 48%
Nunn - 48%

Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 48%

Iowa

Ernst - 50%
Braley - 48%

Kansas

Orman - 49%
Roberts - 48%

Kentucky

McConnell - 54%
Grimes - 45%

Louisiana

Landrieu - 45%
Cassidy - 38%
Maness - 10%

Landrieu - 47%
Cassidy - 53%

New Hampshire

Shaheen - 52%
Brown - 48%

North Carolina

Hagan - 49%
Tillis - 47%

(Bolded = Incumbent)

Profile Prediction

R+8 or R+7 (depending on Orman). Republicans take the senate with at least 52 seats.