2014 Senatorial Predictions

[Never]

Alabama: Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan, Tossup
Arkansas: Tom Cotton, Tossup
Colorado: Cory Gardner, Tossup
Delaware: Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia: David Perdue, Lean R
Hawaii: Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin, Safe D
Iowa: Joni Ernst, Tossup
Kansas: Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell, Lean R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy, Tossup
Maine: Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters, Tossup
Minnesota: Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines, Safe R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaeen, Lean D
New Jersey: Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina: Thom Tillis, Tossup
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford or T.W. Shannon, Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley, Lean D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special): Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds, Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn, Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner, Lean D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito, Lean R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi, Safe R

Republicans +9

[Never]

Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia, Minnesota, Illinois, Oregon, and Hawaii are safe Democratic seats.

Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico are likely Democratic seats.

Colorado is a lean Democratic seat.

Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina are pure toss-ups.

Kentucky is a lean Republican seat.

West Virginia, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Montana are likely Republican seats.

South Carolina, South Carolina (special), Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma (special), Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, and Maine are safe Republican seats.

Yes?

Strange that someone would be confused, I actually thought this map was pretty reasonable save for Georgia...

[Never]

Safe Republican: Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Montana (pick-up), Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma (special), South Carolina, South Carolina (special), South Dakota (pick-up), Tennessee, Texas, Maine, West Virginia (pick-up)

Leans Republican (in order of confidence - from highest to lowest): Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky

Tossup Republican (in order of confidence): Louisiana (pick-up), North Carolina (pick-up), Arkansas (pick-up), Alaska (pick-up), Colorado (pick-up), Iowa (pick-up)

Tossup Democrat: None

Leans Democrat (in order of confidence): New Hampshire, Oregon, Michigan

Safe Democrat: Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Virginia

Currently projecting a Republican net gain of 9 seats.

[Never]

Now that most primaries have been completed I decided to finally make one of these.




I don't believe the GOP expanded the map in either OR, VA, or NH. Just media hype. However, one place where I do think they expanded the map is CO, where I'm more pessimistic than most here (although I still see Udall winning). Landrieu now looks more likely to lose than to win, especially because of the runoff. I still think McConnell will lose narrowly. Georgia is still something of a question mark, but I anticipate it will probably end up going Lean R. Iowa could go toss up, but Ernst's post primary bounce isn't enough to convince me...yet.

IceSpear, that was very insightful. This is one of the more accurate maps in my view. I'll add that the National Journal argues that all three competitive Democrat-held Senate seats in the South will swing one way or the other together, which might be something to keep in mind once November is closer. Personally, I'm only ranking LA as a Republican pick-up because I don't think Landrieu has what it takes to win a runoff in this political climate (I don't think that any candidate can pass 50% in LA on November 4th), but I'm leaving AR and NC as Democratic holds, because it seems like Pryor is in a uniquely strong position, and Tillis is a weak candidate compared to Hagan.

[Never]

Many tears were shed in the making of this prediction. I've been denying that the GOP had the advantage for awhile now, but it is what it is.

Toss-Ups:

Iowa: Ernst sure has been performing better than I expected here. It will be close, but Braley has been using her anti-minimum wage stance to its maximum and has been duly pursuing liberal Dems and the rural community on her pro-oil stance (the rural community opposes oil because of bio fuels). Braley holds on.

Arkansas: Pryor is a good candidate for the state, but its' rightward shift of recent years is forcing it away from even the Blue Dogs. Cotton is starting to establish a consistent lead, and he will not slip up.

Louisiana: Landrieu has not done everything she can to win this race. Like Arkansas, Louisiana has taken a sharp turn toward the GOP, abandoning even the moderates. Landrieu was popular there, but she would want to back off pro-choice stances from the past if she wants a chance. She hasn't done that, and that has motivated me to change this prediction. Cassidy takes it.

Kentucky: Of the southern toss-ups, this is where my most confidence is as a Democrat. McConnell has the organization and national power, which has caused many to say Grimes doesn't have a chance. She does, however, as anti-incumbent sentiment is strong there, and she has run a fantastic campaign. She's strong, dynamic, and feels just right for the state. The Dems take Kentucky narrowly; Grimes wins.

North Carolina: I had Hagan winning here for awhile, but her chances are slimming by the day. She isn't an especially exciting candidate and anti-incumbent sentiment will prove strong here as well. This will be a close one, but I have Tillis narrowly here.

What about Colorado? And Kentucky... just no

As you can see, I have Colorado at Lean D.

And Kentucky...oh yes.

Kentucky will probably be close, but if Grimes manages to win there, I don't see how North Carolina would throw Hagan out.