2014 Senatorial Predictions (user search)
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Latest 2014 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
K.Dobrev (O-BGR)MapProfile 11-04 1 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
Juin (R-CO)MapProfile 11-03 32 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 11-02 3 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 0
kgt107 ()Map 10-21 1 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 0
jamesyons (R-VA)MapProfile 10-23 10 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
Oldiesfreak1854 (R-MI)MapProfile 10-31 13 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
PandaExpress (D-JPN)MapProfile 11-01 2 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
deus naturae (L-NY)MapProfile 11-02 6 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
liberal96 (D-NY)MapProfile 11-03 8 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 0
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ben Kenobi ()MapProfile 11-04 1 R +12 27 (+12) 9 (-12) 0 (0) 0
Gass3268 (D-MD)MapProfile 11-04 2 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 0
ThePoliticalGuy (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 20 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 0
Olawakandi (G-CA)MapProfile 11-04 435 Even 16 (+1) 19 (-2) 1 (+1) 0
albaleman (D-MN)MapProfile 11-04 8 R +5 20 (+5) 15 (-6) 1 (+1) 0
ground_x (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 5 R +4 19 (+4) 16 (-5) 1 (+1) 0
MilesC56 (I-VA)MapProfile 11-04 37 R +6 21 (+6) 15 (-6) 0 (0) 0
ilikeverin (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 1 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
Xiivi (D-FRA)MapProfile 11-04 5 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 0
benconstine (D-VA)MapProfile 11-04 9 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
slick67 (R-SC)
by slick67 on 2014-12-10 @ 08:29:37		MapProfile 11-03 21 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 1
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2014-12-04 @ 13:19:50		MapProfile 10-19 97 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 6
colin (I-ON)
by KS21 on 2014-11-20 @ 08:45:47		MapProfile 10-25 17 R +10 25 (+10) 11 (-10) 0 (0) 6
MATTROSE94 (D-NJ)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-10 @ 10:44:28		MapProfile 10-30 38 R +7 22 (+7) 14 (-7) 0 (0) 1
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)
by dmurphy1984 on 2014-11-05 @ 05:41:19		Map 11-03 2 R +9 24 (+9) 12 (-9) 0 (0) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-04 @ 01:58:43		MapProfile 11-04 10 R +8 23 (+8) 13 (-8) 0 (0) 1
IceSpear (D-PA)
by IceSpear on 2014-11-04 @ 01:02:42		MapProfile 11-04 22 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 2
BushCountry (I-IN)
by wingindy on 2014-11-04 @ 00:29:01		MapProfile 11-03 34 R +6 21 (+6) 14 (-7) 1 (+1) 5
Olawakandi (G-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 17:16:21		MapProfile 11-02 433 R +2 17 (+2) 18 (-3) 1 (+1) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 16:44:11		MapProfile 11-02 9 R +7 22 (+7) 13 (-8) 1 (+1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2014 Senatorial Predictions  (Read 225360 times)
GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
« on: May 25, 2014, 06:30:35 PM »
Quote from: Del Tachi on May 20, 2014, 09:25:00 PM
Alabama:  Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas:  Mark Pryor, Tossup
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware:  Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia:  Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii:  Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois:  Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas:  Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana:  Mary Landrieu, Tossup
Maine:  Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan:  Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota:  Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi:  Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana:  Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska:  Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey:  Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico:  Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina:  Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma:  Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R
Oregon:  Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D
South Carolina:  Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special):  Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota:  Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee:  Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas:  John Cornyn, Safe R
Virginia:  Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia:  Natalie Tennant, Tossup
Wyoming:  Mike Enzi

Republicans net 3, resulting in a Democratic Senate (52-48).

I'll probably catch some flack for giving Landrieu and Pryor a pass while predicting that Hagan loses.  However, I think that Democrats are overstating their chances in North Carolina - Hagan's victory in 2008 was much narrower than Landrieu's or Pryor's, and a Hagan victory would be much more dependent on Black turnout than a Democratic victory in AR, LA, or WV. 

All in all, 2014 should be a good year for conservative Southern Democrats. 

I would seriously bet you $1000 that the combination of NC/WV (Kay Hagan losing AND Natalie Tennant winning) is not possible. 

I just can't see Tennant winning.
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GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2014, 06:32:11 PM »
Also:
Alabama:  Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas:  Tom Cotton, Tossup (+1)
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware:  Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia:  Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii:  Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois:  Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas:  Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana:  Bill Cassidy (+1)
Maine:  Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan:  Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota:  Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi:  Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana:  Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska:  Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey:  Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico:  Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina:  Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma:  Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R
Oregon:  Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D
South Carolina:  Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special):  Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota:  Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee:  Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas:  John Cornyn, Safe R
Virginia:  Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia:  Shelley Moore Capito, Likely R(+1)
Wyoming:  Mike Enzi

So the final result is R+6 and a narrow GOP pickup.
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GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
« Reply #2 on: June 06, 2014, 09:06:07 PM »
Quote from: Del Tachi on June 06, 2014, 02:35:37 PM
I'll be updating my prediction after the June 24th Mississippi runoff.  If McDaniel wins, that alone probably flips MS, AK, AR, KY and NC from GOP to the Democrats.

Isn't that a little extreme?
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GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2014, 09:09:13 PM »
Also, Del Tachi, if the GOP would lose 5 Senate seats due to McDaniel, wouldn't GOP leaders in the state be more concerned and not talking about "dialing back" help to Cochran?  Wouldn't they be panicked/horrified and do everything possible to help him?
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GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2014, 01:39:38 PM »
Wow, that's a thorough analysis. 

It seems like the GOP has 2 options:
1. Pour millions into the runoff to try to keep McDaniel out of the nomination.
2. Make the GOP establishment/McDaniel's campaign treat McDaniel like a 5-year-old; not let him into certain interviews and only give him prepared speeches; make him practice/rehearse responses to a bunch of different question types and pound sensibility in his head; look at all his past interviews and come up with quick counterattacks should they arise

My guess is it'll probably be #2.
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