Alabama: Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas: Mark Pryor, Tossup
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia: Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii: Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas: Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu, Tossup
Maine: Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota: Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska: Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina: Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special): Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn, Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia: Natalie Tennant, Tossup
Wyoming: Mike Enzi
Republicans net 3, resulting in a Democratic Senate (52-48).
I'll probably catch some flack for giving Landrieu and Pryor a pass while predicting that Hagan loses. However, I think that Democrats are overstating their chances in North Carolina - Hagan's victory in 2008 was much narrower than Landrieu's or Pryor's, and a Hagan victory would be much more dependent on Black turnout than a Democratic victory in AR, LA, or WV.
All in all, 2014 should be a good year for conservative Southern Democrats.
Your projection is actually +4 (51-49 Dem), WV is democratic right now - if Capito wins it would be a pickup.
Also, Hagan's margin of victory in 2008 was actually
bigger than Landrieu's- Hagan won by 8.5%, Landrieu won by just 6.4% (Landrieu was the only vulnerable incumbent democrat in 2008). Obviously Pryor won by a lot more than Hagan did, but that was only because Pryor had no major party opposition last time - he ran against a green party candidate - rather than because of anything Pryor had done or not done as Senator. As it was, that Green Party candidate got 20.5% of the vote (a very strong third-party performance), so there was a movement against him even then.
