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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  2014 Gubernatorial Predictions
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Latest 2014 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
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Olawakandi (D-IL)MapProfile 07-30 318 D +6 17 (-5) 19 (+6) 0 (-1) 0
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Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
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Olawakandi (D-IL)
by Castro2020 on 2014-07-25 @ 12:04:55
MapProfile 07-24 312 D +7 16 (-6) 20 (+7) 0 (-1) 1
dnul222 (D-MN)
by dnul222 on 2014-05-26 @ 06:15:03
Map 05-26 2 D +2 21 (-1) 15 (+2) 0 (-1) 1
MilesC56 (D-LA)
by MilesC56 on 2014-04-23 @ 02:33:54
MapProfile 04-23 20 D +4 19 (-3) 17 (+4) 0 (-1) 1
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2014-04-01 @ 07:38:15
MapProfile 2013-12-14 1 D +3 20 (-2) 16 (+3) 0 (-1) 3
doniki80 (I-OH)
by fayeR on 2014-03-14 @ 16:37:23
Map 03-06 13 D +3 20 (-2) 16 (+3) 0 (-1) 1
MilesC56 (D-LA)
by fayeR on 2014-03-14 @ 16:36:27
MapProfile 01-31 19 D +4 19 (-3) 17 (+4) 0 (-1) 3
Nik (R-TN)
by fayeR on 2014-03-14 @ 16:35:41
MapProfile 03-10 7 R +3 25 (+3) 11 (-2) 0 (-1) 1
fayeR (R-WV)
by fayeR on 2014-03-14 @ 15:56:02
Map 03-14 1 R +7 29 (+7) 7 (-6) 0 (-1) 1
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by New Canadaland on 2014-02-09 @ 15:43:51
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by SawxDem on 2014-01-24 @ 13:11:09
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Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 28229 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: March 16, 2013, 04:42:34 pm »

The 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2013, 02:11:11 pm »
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Alaska- Sean Parnell 57% Scott McAdams 43%
Hawaii- Colleen Hanabusa- 63% Duke Aiona 30%
Oregon- John Kitzhaber 66% Bruce Hanna 31 %
California- Jerry Brown 52% Abel Maldonado 39%
Idaho (Primary) Raul Labrador 51% Butch Otter 47%
Nevada- Brian Sandoval 54% Steve Sisolak 42%
Arizona- Ken Bennett 49% Greg Stanton 47%
Wyoming (primary) Matt Mead 53% Cindy Hill 45%
Colorado- Cory Gardner 51% John Hickenlooper 49%
New Mexico- Susana Martinez 53%  Gary King 44%
South Dakota- Dennis Dauggard (Unopposed)
Nebraska- Pete Ricketts 59% Chris Buetler 38%
Kansas- Sam Brownback 72% Joe Reardon 19%
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin (unopposed)
Texas- Greg Abbott 59% Mike Villarreal 39%
Arkansas- Asa Hutchinson 65% Bill Halter 33%
Iowa- Chet Culver 50% Terry Branstad 49%
Minnesota- Mark Dayton 55% Julie Rosen 43%
Wisconsin- Scott Walker 51% Russ Feingold 48%
Illinois- Lisa Madigan 62% Aaron Schock 33%
Michigan- Rick Snyder 52% Gary Peters 47%
Ohio- EdFitzGerald 49% John Kasich 47%
Tennessee- Bill Haslam- 58% Craig Fitzhugh 41%
Alabama- Robert Bentley- 75% John Rogers 22%
Georgia- Nathan Deal 54% Kasim Reed 44%
South Carolina- Nikki Haley 58% Vincent Sheheen 40%
Florida- Charlie Crist 50% Rick Scott 49%
Maryland- Anthony Brown 68% Micheal Steele 28%
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz 53% Tom Corbett 44%
New York- Andrew Cuomo 64% Marcus Molinario 31%
Connecticut- Chris Shays 52% Dan Malloy 48%
Rhode Island- Gina Raimondo 39% Lincon Chafee 35% Brendan Dohtery 26%
Massachusetts- Setti Warren  54% Richard Tsei 39%
New Hampshire- Maggie Hassan 52% Frank Giunta 47%
Vermont- Peter Shumlin (unopposed)
Maine- Eliot Cutler 35% Paul Lepage 33% Chellie Pingree 32%


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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2013, 09:16:41 pm »
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My preliminary predictions:
Alabama: [Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Jan Brewer (R Hold)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D Hold)
Florida: Ron Klein (D Gain)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Dan Rutherford (R Gain)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: Eliot Cutler (I Gain)
Maryland: Anthony G. Brown (D Gain)
Massachusetts: Tim Murray (D Hold)
Michigan: Bill Schuette (R Hold)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Mike Turzai (R Hold)
Rhode Island: John Robatille (R Gain)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R Hold)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)
« Last Edit: April 11, 2013, 08:13:06 am by Oldiesfreak1854 »Logged

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« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2013, 02:50:36 pm »
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It might be a bit optimistic, but I'll give it a try:

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Neil Giuliano (D)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown(Gavin Newsom, if Brown declines to run) (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Thomas C. Foley (R)
Florida: Alex Sink (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: James Aiona (R)
Idaho: Raúl Labrador (R)
Illinois: Aaron Shock (R)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Paul LePage (R)
Maryland: Michael Steele (R)
Massachusetts: Scott Brown (R)
Michigan: Stacy Erwin Oakes (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Charles Bass (R)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Patrick C. Lynch (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold (D)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2013, 02:13:13 pm »
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Flips in bold.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Neil Giuliano (D)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: James Aiona (R)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Lisa Madigan (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Paul LePage (R)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Scott Brown (R)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Patrick C. Lynch (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)
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Sawx
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« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2013, 01:38:33 am »
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Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R)
Arkansas: Mike Ross (D)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Rick Scott (R)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Lisa Madigan (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Paul LePage (R)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano (D)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Mike Foley (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)
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« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2013, 08:22:01 pm »
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It might be a bit optimistic, but I'll give it a try:

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Neil Giuliano (D)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown(Gavin Newsom, if Brown declines to run) (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Thomas C. Foley (R)
Florida: Alex Sink (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: James Aiona (R)
Idaho: Raúl Labrador (R)
Illinois: Aaron Shock (R)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Paul LePage (R)
Maryland: Michael Steele (R)
Massachusetts: Scott Brown (R)
Michigan: Stacy Erwin Oakes (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Charles Bass (R)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Patrick C. Lynch (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold (D)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Agreed- too optimistic! Your Arkansas, Connecticut, and Massachusetts predictions are quite good, but your Hawaii, Illinois, and New Hampshire ones are laughable. Quinn is certainly vulnerable, but even Quinn would beat Schock. Remember that it's Illinois- moderate Republicans are formidable, but someone as conservative as Schock has no chance statewide. Dillard and Rutheford could definitely beat Quinn. However, the likelihood of Quinn even being in the race seems small. Daley v Dillard and Daley v Rutheford would be toss-up/lean D; Madigan v Dillard and Madigan v Rutheford would be Safe D.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2013, 08:42:08 am by PolitiJunkie »Logged



Quote from: CNN/ORC Poll
8. As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the country's health care system became law in 2010. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it?

Favor: 38%
Oppose, too liberal: 39%
Oppose, not liberal enough: 11%
No opinion: 13%
OC
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2013, 02:39:02 pm »
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Updated:
Alabama: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Jan Brewer (R Hold)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D Hold)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D Gain)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Bill Daley (D hold)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: LePage (R Hold)
Maryland: Michael Steele (R Gain)
Massachusetts: Mike Cupuano (D Hold)
Michigan: Schauer (D Gain)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain)
Rhode Island: Dem Gain
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R Hold)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)
« Last Edit: June 14, 2013, 02:41:54 pm by OC »Logged
PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2013, 03:56:13 pm »
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Alabama: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R Hold)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)**
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Tom Foley (R Gain)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D Gain)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Lisa Madigan (D hold)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: Eliot Cutler (I Gain)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D Hold)
Massachusetts: Mike Cupuano (D Hold)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D Gain)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R Hold)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D Gain)
South Carolina: Vincent Sheheen (D Gain)***
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)

Assuming McAuliffe and Christie win in 2013, this would result in a breakdown of 26 R 23 D 1 I

**Newsom or Harris if he retires, which I hope he does, but I bet he won't.

***I know it sounds ridiculous, but Haley beat Sheheen by a tiny margin in a very red state in a year that was very good for Republicans. Moreover, Sheheen has already declared his 2014 run, meaning he has more time to organize and build up name recognition. Finally, and foremost, Sheheen is ALREADY leading Haley, the incumbent Governor, by at least 2 points in every single poll between them.



I think these predictions gives a limited picture, because I am only naming one prediction, whereas it varies on a case by case basis based on who runs, who is nominated, etc. Therefore, I thought it would also be useful to include my breakdown regarding where the races fall party-wise:

Safe Democratic
California
Colorado
Oregon
Vermont
New York
Maryland
Minnesota

Likely Democratic
New Hampshire
Illinois
Hawaii
Rhode Island
Massachusetts

Lean Democratic
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Florida

Toss-Up
South Carolina
Arkansas
Maine
Connecticut

Lean Republican
Arizona
New Mexico
Nevada
Ohio
Georgia
Iowa

Likely Republican
Texas
Wisconsin

Safe Republican
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Tennessee
Wyoming
Nebraska
« Last Edit: June 14, 2013, 04:02:47 pm by PolitiJunkie »Logged



Quote from: CNN/ORC Poll
8. As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the country's health care system became law in 2010. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it?

Favor: 38%
Oppose, too liberal: 39%
Oppose, not liberal enough: 11%
No opinion: 13%
JerryArkansas
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« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2013, 04:00:51 pm »
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What if in 2012, in this debate at the one minute mark, Governor Rick Perry had hit Governor Romney?  What would had happened, would the race had changed completely?  Find out in my new tl, based on one I had at one time, "The Punch Watched Around The World."
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« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2013, 11:23:36 pm »
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Alabama: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R Hold)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D Hold)
Florida: Rick Scott (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Bill Daley (D Hold)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: Paul LePage (R Hold)
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano (D Hold)
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R Hold)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Mike Flood (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R Hold)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D Hold)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Rick Perry (R Hold)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)
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« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2013, 04:45:15 am »
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I hate to ask such a noob question, but when making my map am I required to submit responses for all 50 states? I'd rather not make uneducated guesses on states whose internal politics I'm not familiar with. If not, I suppose it's a good incentive to learn Cheesy
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« Reply #12 on: June 16, 2013, 11:02:02 am »
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You can make your map the way you want but you will be scored at the end. It is just for fun anyways.
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Sawx
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« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2013, 12:38:47 am »
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It might be a bit optimistic, but I'll give it a try:

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Neil Giuliano (D)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown(Gavin Newsom, if Brown declines to run) (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Thomas C. Foley (R)
Florida: Alex Sink (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: James Aiona (R)
Idaho: Raúl Labrador (R)
Illinois: Aaron Shock (R)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Paul LePage (R)
Maryland: Michael Steele (R)
Massachusetts: Scott Brown (R)
Michigan: Stacy Erwin Oakes (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Charles Bass (R)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Patrick C. Lynch (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold (D)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Agreed- too optimistic! Your Arkansas, Connecticut, Maryland, and Massachusetts predictions are quite good, but your Hawaii, Illinois, and New Hampshire ones are laughable. Quinn is certainly vulnerable, but even Quinn would beat Schock. Remember that it's Illinois- moderate Republicans are formidable, but someone as conservative as Schock has no chance statewide. Dillard and Rutheford could definitely beat Quinn. However, the likelihood of Quinn even being in the race seems small. Daley v Dillard and Daley v Rutheford would be toss-up/lean D; Madigan v Dillard and Madigan v Rutheford would be Safe D.

I'll agree with NH (Bass strikes me more as someone who's more interested in Senate than Governorship, plus Hassan has been doing a good job anyway), but I firmly disagree on Hawaii and Illinois. Abercrombie and Quinn are HATED, and Quinn is running. Madigan was never really chomping at the bit, and Daley declaring leads me to believe that Madigan isn't interested at all. Probably raising money for a future run (maybe 2016?). Daley will have a rougher time getting past Quinn (although if he does the race Leans Democratic), and if he doesn't, the only thing that can save him is Rutherford's awkward speaking skills and general lack of savvy (from what I've heard). Djou is more moderate (no idea about Aiona, haven't looked much into him).
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« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2013, 07:37:10 am »
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Daley will be running as the populist. Giving Chicago gaming by installing slots at two airports, not the big casino (des plaines and Elgin have one already) to fix education. Meanwhile, fix pension and rescind tax increases. All ideas Rutherford support but defund edu and give vouchers to private schools. And slow growth of spending. No need for him at all.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2013, 07:39:24 am by OC »Logged
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« Reply #15 on: July 08, 2013, 08:27:19 am »
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Alabama: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Greg Stanton (D Gain)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D Hold)
Florida: Alex Sink (D Gain)

Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D hold)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)

Maine: Elliot Cutler (I Gain)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D Hold)
Massachusetts: Mike Cupuano (D Hold)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D Gain)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)

Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Barbara Buckley (D Gain) [I think it will be close in the polls, and she pulls off an upset.]
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: Ted Strickland (D Gain)

Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D Gain)

South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R Hold)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)

Texas: Wendy Davis (D Gain)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)

Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)




(If you haven't noticed, I think Democrats are going to have a splendid midterm)
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« Reply #16 on: July 08, 2013, 09:50:23 pm »
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AL: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
AK: Sean Parnell (R-Hold)
AZ: Greg Stanton (D-Pickup!)
AR: Asa Hutchinson (R-Pickup!)

CA: Jerry Brown (D-Hold)
CO: John Hickenlooper (D-Hold)
CT: Tom Foley (R-Pickup!)
FL: Charlie Crist (D-Pickup!)

HI: Neil Abercrombie (D-Hold)
ID: Butch Otter (R-Hold)
IL: Lisa Madigan (D-Hold)
IA: Terry Branstad (R-Hold)
KS: Sam Brownback (R-Hold)
ME: Paul LePage (R-Hold)
MD: Anthony Brown (D-Hold)
MA: Mike Capuano (D-Hold)
MI: Mark Schauer (D-Pickup!)

MN: Mark Dayton (D-Hold)
NE: Don Stenberg (R-Hold)
NV: Brian Sandoval (R-Hold)
NH: Maggie Hassan (D-Hold)
NM: Susana Martinez (R-Hold)
NY: Andrew Cuomo (D-Hold)
OH: John Kasich (R-Hold)
OK: Mary Fallin (R-Hold)
OR: John Kitzhaber (D-Hold)
PA: Allyson Schwartz (D-Pickup!)
RI: Gina Raimondo (D-Hold)

SC: Nikki Haley (R-Hold)
SD:Dennis Daugaard (R-Hold)
TN: Bill Haslam (R-Hold)
TX: Greg Abbott (R-Hold)
VT: Peter Shumlin (D-Hold)
WI: Scott Walker (R-Hold)
WY: Matt Mead (R-Hold)
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« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2013, 08:52:30 pm »
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Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Christ (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Eliot Cutler (I)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)
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« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2013, 06:21:27 am »
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Daley will be running as the populist. Giving Chicago gaming by installing slots at two airports, not the big casino (des plaines and Elgin have one already) to fix education. Meanwhile, fix pension and rescind tax increases. All ideas Rutherford support but defund edu and give vouchers to private schools. And slow growth of spending. No need for him at all.

I assume Quinn will defeat him in the primaries.
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« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2013, 07:15:50 pm »
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Daley will be running as the populist. Giving Chicago gaming by installing slots at two airports, not the big casino (des plaines and Elgin have one already) to fix education. Meanwhile, fix pension and rescind tax increases. All ideas Rutherford support but defund edu and give vouchers to private schools. And slow growth of spending. No need for him at all.

I assume Quinn will defeat him in the primaries.

There is no division in Illinois. We want to win badly and we will unite behind our nominee.
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« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2013, 12:22:18 am »
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Any chance Brownback can be taken down?
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« Reply #21 on: August 31, 2013, 09:06:53 pm »
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Nevada: Barbara Buckley (D Gain) [I think it will be close in the polls, and she pulls off an upset.]
Ohio: Ted Strickland (D Gain)
Texas: Wendy Davis (D Gain)


2014 will be a Democratic year, but probably not in Texas and Nevada. I'm not counting out Davis, but with Abbott running, Texas is really a long shot for the Democrats and they'll have to wait until at least 2018 (maybe 2022 if Abbott would seek a 2nd term). As for Nevada, Sandoval's sort of like Gov. Martinez (even though ones pro-life, the other isn't). They're both Hispanic which significantly helps them among their base next year for re-election in NV and NM plus I just don't see anything the Democrats could use against Gov. Sandoval that could decrease his popularity enough to make this a lean Democratic race let alone anywhere close to a tossup since he's leading by about 23 points. And in Ohio, Ted Strickland has already declared he's not running, but he has endorsed a very formidable and progressive candidate in Ed FitzGerald who still has a pretty good chance at unseating Kasich.

@IllegalOperation - Doubt it. Had that been Tom Holland with the mid 30's approval rating, it would be a sure pickup for the GOP, but just because Brownback has the name "Republican" in front of his affiliation in a state like Kansas, he'll survive.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2013, 11:45:08 pm by Adam Christopher FitzGerald »Logged

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« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2013, 12:21:04 pm »
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Nevada: Barbara Buckley (D Gain) [I think it will be close in the polls, and she pulls off an upset.]
Ohio: Ted Strickland (D Gain)
Texas: Wendy Davis (D Gain)


2014 will be a Democratic year, but probably not in Texas and Nevada. I'm not counting out Davis, but with Abbott running, Texas is really a long shot for the Democrats and they'll have to wait until at least 2018 (maybe 2022 if Abbott would seek a 2nd term). As for Nevada, Sandoval's sort of like Gov. Martinez (even though ones pro-life, the other isn't). They're both Hispanic which significantly helps them among their base next year for re-election in NV and NM plus I just don't see anything the Democrats could use against Gov. Sandoval that could decrease his popularity enough to make this a lean Democratic race let alone anywhere close to a tossup since he's leading by about 23 points. And in Ohio, Ted Strickland has already declared he's not running, but he has endorsed a very formidable and progressive candidate in Ed FitzGerald who still has a pretty good chance at unseating Kasich.

@IllegalOperation - Doubt it. Had that been Tom Holland with the mid 30's approval rating, it would be a sure pickup for the GOP, but just because Brownback has the name "Republican" in front of his affiliation in a state like Kansas, he'll survive.
Even though I would vote for Wendy Davis enthusiastically against Greg Abbott, I doubt that she would even come close to winning. I think that if she received the nomination for Texas governor, Greg Abbott would ultimately win with around 60% of the vote, as the Christian Right would campaign hard for Abbott due to Davis' filibuster of the anti-abortion bill that the Texas state legislature attempted to pass back in June.
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Term limits is used by those, who are bitter because they can't beat someone at the ballot box.

Like I said 1960 was a f***ing crazy election year. It's like everyone woke up and wondered "who the hell should I vote for?"
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« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2013, 01:56:03 am »
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Prediction: 18 Democratic wins/18 Republican wins
After 2014: 25 Governor's seats held by Democrats (Counting Virginia)/25 Governor's seats held by Republicans

Net gain: D +5

Alabama Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Robert J. Bentley (R) - Safe R hold
Alaska Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R hold
Arizona Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (Ken Bennett) (TOSSUP)
Arkansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (Asa Hutchinson) (TOSSUP)
California Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D hold
Colorado Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Dan Malloy (D)
Florida Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Charlie Crist) (TOSSUP)
Georgia Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) - Safe D hold
Idaho Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Butch Otter (R) - Safe R hold (Surprise, surprise....)
Illinois Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Pat Quinn (D) (TOSSUP)
Iowa Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Sam Brownback (R)
Maine Margin of Victory: 30% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Mike Michaud) (TOSSUP)
Maryland Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Anthony Brown)
Massachusetts Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (TBD)
Michigan Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Mark Schauer) (TOSSUP)
Minnesota Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D hold
Nebraska Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for the Republican candidate (TBD) - Safe R hold
Nevada Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D hold
New Mexico Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Susana Martinez (R)
New York Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D hold
Ohio Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Ed FitzGerald) (TOSSUP)
Oklahoma Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R hold
Oregon Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D hold
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Allyson Schwartz) (TOSSUP)
Rhode Island Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (TBD)
South Carolina Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Nikki Haley (R) (TOSSUP)
South Dakota Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R hold
Tennessee Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R hold
Texas Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Republican candidate (Greg Abbott)
Vermont Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) - Safe D hold
Wisconsin Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Matt Mead (R)



Arizona - With Campbell dropping out and Bennett running, Arizona Republicans really don't even need the incumbent Brewer to hold onto the seat. I don't think the Hispanic population will be enough in 2014 yet for a Democrat to win the Governor's seat until 2022. Tilts R.

Arkansas - Ross might be a Bluedog, but everything is favoring Hutchinson at this point. It's a midterm year with higher white turnout, there's no incumbency advantage this time like Beebe had, and Hutchinson is holding an 8 point lead over Ross. I still think it could be a tossup, but it favors the Republicans here as well.

Colorado - The fact that Sen. Mark Udall will be on the same ballot will help out Gov. Hickenlooper a lot. The only real threat he even faces at this point is Tancredo and there's not even a guarantee he'll win the primary. Colorado's dissatisfaction will probably blow over by the 2014 election and by then, Hickenlooper should have his approval back in the 50's guaranteeing him re-election. Leans D for now.

Connecticut/Illinois - If Malloy and Quinn can beat their Republican opponents once, they can beat them again this time being the incumbents. Their approvals are bound to get better and I also doubt that the Quinnipiac Foley +3 poll or the PPP Rutherford +4 poll are all that accurate either anymore. Tilt D.

Florida - We need Crist, period. Nelson and Sink have dropped out and I doubt Nan Rich could pull it off, so Charlie Crist is the Democratic Party's last hope at beating Scott. Leans D if Crist is the nominee, Tilts R if Nan Rich is the nominee.

Georgia - It would be best if the Democrats just gave up on this race altogether and wait until 2018 when Deal is term-limited to get someone like Barrow or Reed to run. You guys are better off working on this Senate race a lot more because that's at least winnable. I don't even think Carter or Holcomb will come close if either one of them decides to run. Safe R.

Iowa - All depends on Branstad. Not even Culver can beat him, but if Branstad finally steps down for good and Reynolds runs, this is a great race to watch then even if the worst is assumed by the Iowa Democrats (Culver declines a run and Olson or Hatch becomes nominee). Likely R w/ a Branstad run, Tilts R with a Reynolds run.

Kansas - With Paul Davis in, this makes the race interesting. They might be heavily Republican, but Davis is backed by the popular Sebelius and he has great name recognition as the Democratic leader of the Kansas House of Reps on top of an unpopular Brownback. Still lean R though.

Maine - Paul "Windmills are a Conspiracy" LePage is his own worst enemy. He's literally asking to be unseated next year in Maine so he can try and be in Congress in the future which are just his own petty thoughts. Cutler shouldn't matter at this point and while I like his views more than Michaud's, Michaud is better than nothing. Tossup/Tilt D.

Maryland/Massachusetts - The Republicans really don't stand a chance at either one given Brown/Ulman and Coakley or Capuano are great candidates for the Democrats on top of both states being reliably Democratic (despite the history Massachusetts has of electing GOP Governor's). I still completely disagree with Sabato though about these either being a "lean" or a complete "tossup" and I'm going with Cook on these when I say they're likely Democratic.

Michigan - 2 things: Right to Work and Detroit. Snyder might have the advantage currently, but the polls are flopping all over the place with some having Rep. Schauer leading and others having Gov. Snyder leading. This is just a pure, pure tossup and since I watch MSNBC regularly, I expect Ed Schultz to actually play a huge part in trying to get the Michigan electorate out there and throwing out Snyder. #UnionRights #EdShow

Nevada - When Buckley dropped out, this race was dropped to. There's just no other Democrat that could beat someone as popular and moderate as Gov. Sandoval especially given his good relations with the large Hispanic base there. Safe R.

New Mexico - To be fair, even though her approval rating is high, a poll for this race hasn't been done in over a year and Attorney General Gary King is a great candidate which Nevada can't offer. It's Lean R for now until a new poll comes out that says otherwise.

Ohio - Just like in 2010, this is going to be one of the closest and most brutal Governor's races the country has to offer. Ed FitzGerald is campaigning a lot harder than Ohioans thought he would and is attacking the state of Ohio's economy. 47th in job creation, unemployment rose from 7.0% to 7.3% in a matter of a few months, poverty's increasing, and he's focusing heavily on JobsOhio and Kasich's tax breaks for the wealthy. It's like a fuse almost. And that stick of dynamite will explode if Kasich attempts to pass that suicidal 6 week abortion ban bill into law which would just hand FitzGerald the election. Total tossup at this time though (aside from Sabato who are stupidly calling it likely Republican still).

Pennsylvania - A 16% approval?! Really? That's nearly as bad as Congress.....leans D.

Rhode Island - Whether it's Raimondo, Taveras, or maybe Roberts, the withdrawal of Gov. Chafee from the race ruined what little chances Republicans had here. Likely D.

South Carolina - Haley automatically benefits being the incumbent in a red state, but Sheheen is a great candidate. He came close in 2010 at winning despite it being the GOP year, it being SC, and being on the same ballot as Sen. Jim DeMint. Plus with that recent SSM comment, although I don't support his view on it, I feel Sheheen would be the kind of guy who would support same-sex marriage, but if he did, it would ruin any chances he has. Sheheen can't win it, but Haley can ruin it for herself to make it so he wins. Tilt R/Leans R

Texas - No matter what Wendy Davis' decision is come October 3rd, it won't make a difference. Going in, as long as Perry or Abbott ended up running this was guaranteed to be a strong R hold. 2022. Safe R.

Wisconsin - If Barca considers a run, this race will be competitive, but very hard for a Democrat to win nonetheless with Feingold opting out and the Walker system. Leans R.

Wyoming - There's only 1 possible way Democrats can win this. Mead opts out of a run or is thrown out of office by the courts and Cindy Hill is unopposed in the GOP primary. And since Freudenthal can't run, the only hope is that Democratic businessman, Gary Trauner, would make a run against Hill. However, since that's highly unlikely...safe R.



« Last Edit: September 23, 2013, 01:59:29 am by Adam Christopher FitzGerald »Logged

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Welcome back LeBron!

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« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2013, 07:10:27 am »
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Is Ohio going to be a state that has a handfull of one term governors over the next few terms?
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Just for the fun of it, summer 2014 reading: I am taking college courses both in July & did in May. I have read all of the material for those. Besides that I read Gifted Hands: The Ben Carson Story & the book on Kennedy & Nixon by Chris Matthews both cover to cover & before that One Last Kiss: The Chris Coleman Story. All very informative & entertaining books. I have started Rendevouz With Destiny By Craig Shirley.
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